Hiv/aids: The Truth About A Subject

[JohnGotti]

having a read a few posts in the health forum, and did some goggling, and some personal thinking of the obvious which has escaped me thus far...

there are a few studies out there which suggest the rate of infection of HIV is 1 in 1000-3000, however, these figures, which are clearly unreliable as you can see by the huge range in the 'guess', come only from studies conducted between married couples where one partner was infected.

consider the following facts:

1. personally having any other stds greatly increases the chances of you yourself contracting HIV.

2. 99.9% of sex workers have multiple stds. you cannot go through that much volume and not pick up other stds.

3. sex workers will work while they still have their period. there is also the risk of their period starting during sex.

4. frequent sex means they are more likely to be bleeding and have lesions inside of themselves.

5. the majority of sex workers participate in unprotected sex... put it like this, Thais have almost no concern whatsoever when it comes to unprotected sex. the goodest of good and the baddest of bad girls will not insist on condom use, they will often even suggest otherwise. so if you think that they are not using the logic that, outside the office, the rule does not apply, you are seriously mistaken... on the other end of the stick, one looks no further than Thai Visa to see the male perspective to this issue.

6. the majority of sex workers will seek a relationship with a man outside of work and he is very likely to himself be at high risk for HIV. he is very likely to not be a lawyer, but instead a minimum wage earner and more likely to be an IV drug user.

6. you have a cut anywhere in your body. a sex worker touches herself, she has blood, she touches that part of your body. Very simple, very not unrealistic.

7. When you hear numbers like 2% of the population has HIV.. you have to first trim that number down and figure out what percent of the demographic you will be in contact with are infected? It becomes much scarier. If we eliminate under 13 and over 70, for example, how much higher does 2% rise? What number do we use, 10-15%?

8. HIV can be undetected for 6mo in your body. you continue infecting others without knowing it.

So, for unprotected sex

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = 1/4000 chance per encounter

1 month of encounters = 1/133 chance

3 month = 1/44 chance

6 month = 1/22 chance

**i have no idea how much a condom changes these numbers.

**i have no idea what kind of testing is done in these establishments.

Edited May 18, 2009 by sabaijai
changed title to make it clear what the thread was about

[MJP]

Post of the month.

Thank you.

[GuestHouse]

Wrong website for this sort of stuff.

Everyone's here for the food, the culture, the weather and the golf.

[jumnien]

It's a great post and worthy of the attention of every sexually active adult's attention. That said, one is far more likely to die from complications arising from being overweight than from HIV or any other STD. Be wary of who you sleep with, always use condoms and, for Christ's sake, watch your diet and EXERCISE!!!

[JetsetBkk]

...

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = 1/4000 chance per encounter...

That's a relief. I'm still off to the clinic tomorrow, though.

[473geo]

No real need to come up with percetages or comparison

Simple maths.......unprotected sex ONCE is enough to catch any number of illness.....

PERCENTAGES ARE FOR THE GAMBLERS.

[JohnGotti]

"Approximately 3% of couples who reported using condoms consistently and

correctly (considered “perfect use”) are estimated to experience an

unintended pregnancy during the first year of use."

The window to get pregnant is about 5/28 days = .179 x 365 = 65 days of fertility... Assume couples studied have sex 3 days a week. 3/7 = 43%

So they had sex an average 43% of the 65 fertile days = 28 fertile days a year, and ended up pregnant 3% of the time or (3/100 = x/28) = 16% rate of failure of a condom.

So for a condom encounter

.125% x 1/500 x .16% = 1 in 25,000 chance per encounter.

my math might be wrong somewhere but i don't think it is.

**i have no idea how much easier it is for sperm to break through a condom than blood.

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[jumnien]

Let's face the ugly truth. At least 40% of us farang males are destined to die before our time because of an overabundance of non-nutritious foods and a lack of exercise. Perhaps, one in a thousand of us is going to die from HIV. Be realistic, which one should we be worrying about? And then there is smoking and drinking to think about!

[JohnGotti]

The creepy thing is that everyone should be checking themselves every 3 months if they are not in a committed relationship, but nobody does because that way they can avoid taking responsibility for themselves if they are HIV positive. by not knowing, they can keep doing whatever they want and claim ignorance. sort of funny, in a sick way. avoiding judgment in the eye's of themselves, even though they still realize what they are doing, right?

[JohnGotti]

Let's face the ugly truth. At least 40% of us farang males are destined to die before our time because of an overabundance of non-nutritious foods and a lack of exercise. Perhaps, one in a thousand of us is going to die from HIV. Be realistic, which one should we be worrying about? And then there is smoking and drinking to think about!

Sounds like you are doing your part to spread the disease to children. Didn't think of that, huh? What about all the young 15 year old girls getting infected by the 24 year old men who seduce them who get infected by the prostitute you infected. You are on the other side of that rope, pulling. Sleep well.

[jumnien]

Let's face the ugly truth. At least 40% of us farang males are destined to die before our time because of an overabundance of non-nutritious foods and a lack of exercise. Perhaps, one in a thousand of us is going to die from HIV. Be realistic, which one should we be worrying about? And then there is smoking and drinking to think about!

Sounds like you are doing your part to spread the disease to children. Didn't think of that, huh? What about all the young 15 year old girls getting infected by the 24 year old men who seduce them who get infected by the prostitute you infected. You are on the other side of that rope, pulling. Sleep well.

Why are so against using condoms? I recommended condoms and public health workers agree. But, I do think that most farang men in Thailand are living in a state of denial. They are far more worried about HIV than about the dangers of obesity and sloth.

[JohnGotti]

Ok, I didn't see your first post.

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[jumnien]

Let's face the ugly truth. At least 40% of us farang males are destined to die before our time because of an overabundance of non-nutritious foods and a lack of exercise. Perhaps, one in a thousand of us is going to die from HIV. Be realistic, which one should we be worrying about? And then there is smoking and drinking to think about!

Sounds like you are doing your part to spread the disease to children. Didn't think of that, huh? What about all the young 15 year old girls getting infected by the 24 year old men who seduce them who get infected by the prostitute you infected. You are on the other side of that rope, pulling. Sleep well.

I am in a monogamous marriage with two children and I fail to see why you think I'm spreading any diseases. Care to elaborate?

[JohnGotti]

Let's face the ugly truth. At least 40% of us farang males are destined to die before our time because of an overabundance of non-nutritious foods and a lack of exercise. Perhaps, one in a thousand of us is going to die from HIV. Be realistic, which one should we be worrying about? And then there is smoking and drinking to think about!

Sounds like you are doing your part to spread the disease to children. Didn't think of that, huh? What about all the young 15 year old girls getting infected by the 24 year old men who seduce them who get infected by the prostitute you infected. You are on the other side of that rope, pulling. Sleep well.

I am in a monogamous marriage with two children and I fail to see why you think I'm spreading any diseases. Care to elaborate?

I missed your first post which mentioned condoms. Your second post implies that other vices are more dangerous/likely than the risk of HIV, but negates the ethically considerations of passing the virus onto an infinite number of people over multiple lifetimes if you are (apparently you aren't) one of those who is irresponsible.

I was pointing out that one is not only taking the risk themselves, but that there is a circle. Completely unlike obesity and alcholism, minus arguments about public health costs increasing because of your actions.

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[MJP]

No real need to come up with percetages or comparison

Simple maths.......unprotected sex ONCE is enough to catch any number of illness.....

PERCENTAGES ARE FOR THE GAMBLERS.

Next best post of the month.

Mind you I'll probably trip and fall on my garden rake tomorrow whilst performing erotic topiary. Sorry that was joke.

[Gaccha]

So, for unprotected sex

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = 1/4000 chance per encounter

1 month of encounters = 1/133 chance

3 month = 1/44 chance

6 month = 1/22 chance

**i have no idea how much a condom changes these numbers.

**i have no idea what kind of testing is done in these establishments.

This is scary. It just shows the dire need for remedial statistics classes among Thai Visa forum members. Did anyone just believe the above?

If you follow the logic then in 10.96 years you are 100% certain to catch HIV . (I didn't just pluck this figure out the air, I just calculated this on 'goal seek' in Excel). The first person to explain the logical fallacy of Mr John's fantastical calculations wins a slap on the back from me.

In the meantime, it is well known that the contraction rate is very low, unless there is a secondary infection (hence the high rates in Africa) creating lessions. The most comprehensive research on the USA was roughly 1:50,000 if wearing a condom and 1:5,000 if not, with all other factors being equal (i.e. regular sex etc.)

[DP25]

Simply put, you're wrong about your assumptions. Thailand has the most successful campaign in reducing STDs, including HIV infections, in the world. HIV infections in the early 90s were over 150,000 people per year. Through their 100% condom use campaign that number has been reduced to roughly 10,000 per year, in a population that is much more widely tested, mostly IV drug users and through anal sex. Not to say you shouldn't be careful.

[JohnGotti]

So, for unprotected sex

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = 1/4000 chance per encounter

1 month of encounters = 1/133 chance

3 month = 1/44 chance

6 month = 1/22 chance

**i have no idea how much a condom changes these numbers.

**i have no idea what kind of testing is done in these establishments.

This is scary. It just shows the dire need for remedial statistics classes among Thai Visa forum members. Did anyone just believe the above?

If you follow the logic then in 10.96 years you are 100% certain to catch HIV

The odds of not getting HIV would be 3999/4000 .99975

You would then square that number by the times you have sex.

So 6 month (180) times would be .99975 ^ 180 equals .956 so you would have a .046 or 4.6% chance of getting it.

11 year (365x11) 4015 .99975 ^ 4015 equals 36.7% chance you do not get it, 63.3% that you do.

"The most comprehensive research on the USA was roughly 1:50,000 if wearing a condom and 1:5,000 if not, with all other factors being equal (i.e. regular sex etc.)"

Was it conducted at the Bunny Ranch in Nevada, if not, its about as relevant as saying "Well, the SAT scores at West Palm Beach Academy were.... so I would imagine Compton High School students scored similarly.

The factors are not equal.

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[JohnGotti]

Simply put, you're wrong about your assumptions. Thailand has the most successful campaign in reducing STDs, including HIV infections, in the world. HIV infections in the early 90s were over 150,000 people per year. Through their 100% condom use campaign that number has been reduced to roughly 10,000 per year, in a population that is much more widely tested, mostly IV drug users and through anal sex. Not to say you shouldn't be careful.

This mantra is right up there along "All Thai men are bad" and "Your wife won't care at all if you have a mia noi. Heck, she might even help in the selection process".

Who do you think all those Isaan ladies were/are married to? Doctors and Lawyers? She only does not use a condom with you... Right?

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[WinnieTheKhwai]

there are a few studies out there which suggest the rate of infection of HIV is 1 in 1000-3000, however, these figures, which are clearly unreliable as you can see by the huge range in the 'guess'

(...)

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = ...

So.. let me get this straight: you think "1 in 1000-3000" is a 'huge range' (0.1% - 0.3%), but a couple centimeters down in your post you're perfectly willing to take a random swipe at a contraction rate?

O-kay..

Edited May 17, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[DP25]

The statistical facts about HIV infection rates in Thailand unfortunately do not corroborate with your assumptions. Still, use a condom.

[MJo]

Simply put, you're wrong about your assumptions. Thailand has the most successful campaign in reducing STDs, including HIV infections, in the world. HIV infections in the early 90s were over 150,000 people per year. Through their 100% condom use campaign that number has been reduced to roughly 10,000 per year, in a population that is much more widely tested, mostly IV drug users and through anal sex. Not to say you shouldn't be careful.

This mantra is right up there along "All Thai men are bad" and "Your wife won't care at all if you have a mia noi. Heck, she might even help in the selection process".

Who do you think all those Isaan ladies were/are married to? Doctors and Lawyers? She only does not use a condom with you... Right?

And where did you get your "facts" ?

I'm not that sure all prostitutes are HIV positive and prefer unprotected sex...

[JohnGotti]

there are a few studies out there which suggest the rate of infection of HIV is 1 in 1000-3000, however, these figures, which are clearly unreliable as you can see by the huge range in the 'guess'

(...)

.125 (12.5% chance of having HIV) * (1/500) (random guess of contraction rate) = ...

So.. let me get this straight: you think "1 in 1000-3000" is a 'huge range' (0.1% - 0.3%), but a couple centimeters down in your post you're perfectly willing to take a random swipe at a contraction rate?

O-kay..

Its always better to assume the worst. So based on the survey results, I used 1 in 1000. Let me guess, you would prefer to assume 1 in 3000, the best case scenario? Then I simply cut that number in half. Perhaps its ten times as likely. There are no survey results that test these factors, but we do know that these factors are huge.

Edited May 17, 2009 by JohnGotti

[Tokay]

Hepatitis kills more on a global scale than HIV, yet nobody talks about it. Hep B and Hep C are spread sexually.

Edited May 17, 2009 by Tokay

[britmaveric]

No glove no love!!

[offset]

Hepatitis kills more on a global scale than HIV, yet nobody talks about it. Hep B and Hep C are spread sexually.

Hep C is only spread by blood contact. It is recommended that you should of had a vaccination for Hep B before coming to Thailand

A tip that I have told friends is if you are paying for sex ask how much for no condom and if they give you a price go somewhere else quick

[JohnGotti]

hope you have a full tank of gas.

[mommysboy]

The thread is silly IMHO.

Let's not confuse empirical evidence for proven std's with anything else.

This posting should go!

[popmybubble]

Hepatitis kills more on a global scale than HIV, yet nobody talks about it. Hep B and Hep C are spread sexually.

Hep C is only spread by blood contact. It is recommended that you should of had a vaccination for Hep B before coming to Thailand

A tip that I have told friends is if you are paying for sex ask how much for no condom and if they give you a price go somewhere else quick

When I had my vaccinations in the UK before coming here they only advised for Hep A

[JohnGotti]

The thread is silly IMHO.

Let's not confuse empirical evidence for proven std's with anything else.

This posting should go!

This sounds like that argument "Well, you can't prove that God doesn't exist".