Best Dividend Growth Stocks

[thecottonmill]

SET down 8.94 points today. Expect another 10 points to come off in the next few days.

My stocks to watch are

LPN - Buy when it hits 6.1 (may fall further but 6.1 is good)

AP - A great Buy if this hits 4 baht

SF - Another great buy if it goes below 2.9

MAJOR - Anywhere close to 8.00 and you should snap it up.

I'd predict all these should give you 20-25% gains by July.

[Orion76]

Wikipedia can be edited by anyone, and is not an authoritive source of information.

Their definition is simply the opinion of whoever bothered to write the text on that page.

[Orion76]

I would say that Buffet is the master of long term market timing.

You can go ahead and say that, but it does not make it valid, especially when the rest of the world would agree that he is a buy and hold value investor.

If he buys at a specific time when he believes stocks are undervalued, rather than buying at any random moment in time, then how is that not timing the market?

Timing the market and being a buy and hold value investor are not mutually exclusive

[Orion76]

Critics predicted an end to his success when his conservative investing style meant missing out on the dotcom bull market. Of course, he had the last laugh after the dotcom crash because, once again, Buffett's time tested strategy proved successful.

See how his knack for timing saved him from buying the top in a market bubble?

[Abrak]

Amongst others I like....

KCE - should make Bt145m in 4Q well ahead of its forecast of Bt100m. Should make Bt600m this year against consensus of Bt450m. Current trading at BV and slightly less than 4x PE. Target Bt9.

STA - usually makes a seasonal loss in 4Q but will report a profit of Bt200m+. Trading 30% below BV and on less than 4x 2009 earnings. Probably worth Bt40+.

[Orion76]

Critics predicted an end to his success when his conservative investing style meant missing out on the dotcom bull market. Of course, he had the last laugh after the dotcom crash because, once again, Buffett's time tested strategy proved successful.

See how his knack for timing saved him from buying the top in a market bubble?

It says nothing of him timing the market. Most likely, he saw NO VALUE in dot com companies, as his strat is VALUE investing. Last sentence, "Buffett's time tested strategy.....

See previous post to learn that he is a VAULUE INVESTOR. Not a speculator like the rest of the sheeple.

Right, it was a bad time to buy stocks, because they were overvalued.

Buffet only buys at times when they are undervalued

[Orion76]

And then he does what......?? A red lolly if you guess it right. He HOLDS!

Are you claiming Buffet never sells?

[thecottonmill]

This is like tennis. haha.

So, anyone else wanna share their own top stock tips for the next few weeks?

HMPRO is an excellent stock by the way - even at the price today. Well undervalued in my opinion.

[thecottonmill]

Amongst others I like....

KCE - should make Bt145m in 4Q well ahead of its forecast of Bt100m. Should make Bt600m this year against consensus of Bt450m. Current trading at BV and slightly less than 4x PE. Target Bt9.

STA - usually makes a seasonal loss in 4Q but will report a profit of Bt200m+. Trading 30% below BV and on less than 4x 2009 earnings. Probably worth Bt40+.

Interesting. I'll check those out!

My other two pics are DTAC and CPN. Both excellently run companies whose share price should reflect this in a year from now. At their current prices they are super cheap (give it a week though and they may be 10% cheaper)

[Orion76]

This is like tennis. haha.

I can play solo squash too if the thread goes stale

In 2009, Buffett divested his failed investment in ConocoPhillips, saying to his Berkshire investors "I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars".

"Timing"... from the oracle's own mouth

Edited February 15, 2010 by Orion76

[Orion76]

This is like tennis. haha.

I can play solo squash too if the thread goes stale

In 2009, Buffett divested his failed investment in ConocoPhillips, saying to his Berkshire investors "I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars".

"Timing"... from the oracle's own mouth

Your not serious are you?? The entire paragraph is proof that he does NOT try to time the market. This is getting a bit silly, no?

The paragraph states that he divested because his timing was terrible.

So Buffet does not hold his stocks if his timing is bad.

[Taggart]

Buffett started buying shares in the Washington Post back in 1973. He's held the stock in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio ever since. Buffett has said many times over the years, "our favorite holding period is forever".

[ExpatJ]

This is like tennis. haha.

So, anyone else wanna share their own top stock tips for the next few weeks?

HMPRO is an excellent stock by the way - even at the price today. Well undervalued in my opinion.

HOMEPRO is a good growth stock..i prefer buying growth stocks i.e. those with the highest growth increases in profit, income, sales and EPS and whose stock price is already rising. The highest growth stocks in SET - HOMEPRO SENA, BANPU, LANNA, TTW, CMR, DSGT KCAR.

Next step is to see which of these has the lowest debt:asset ratio and which has any big foreign institutional investors in their stock e.g. JP Morgans, BoAs of this world. Then ill put a chunck of money into the top 2 or 3...

After that if they increase 5% i sell (and take the 5% return, not bad these days)....then if the stock price continues to increase to 7% i buy in again- if no further increase then i move to the next stock on my watch list and buy into that.

I am currently holding KBANK (for dividend payments); THAI air (new CEO is really making big changes there and its at a low price point- a great med term investment i think), and LPN, PTTCH both of these great EPS, ROE.

[ExpatJ]

And i forgot to mention i think P/E factor is way overrated- i barely note this at all in my analysis.

[fiddlehead]

This is like tennis. haha.

So, anyone else wanna share their own top stock tips for the next few weeks?

HMPRO is an excellent stock by the way - even at the price today. Well undervalued in my opinion.

HOMEPRO is a good growth stock..i prefer buying growth stocks i.e. those with the highest growth increases in profit, income, sales and EPS and whose stock price is already rising. The highest growth stocks in SET - HOMEPRO SENA, BANPU, LANNA, TTW, CMR, DSGT KCAR.

I guess I'm too emotional for stocks.

I lost money in the US trading and am thinking about Thai stocks.

But, HMPRO? Sorry but when I went in one of the huge new stores yesterday, they had about 20 employees standing around and I was one of 4 customers. (I bought a 200 baht item) I can't buy a company that is losing money like that.

Now KBANK is one I've been watching. But, I see people on here buying it for it's dividend (which is listed at 2.5%)

However, the stock has dropped 10% in the past 30 days. (wouldn't it take 4 years to get that money back?)

I am guessing that perhaps the market hasn't hit bottom and may not until after (or closer to) the Taksin decision near the end of this month.

[ExpatJ]

This is like tennis. haha.

So, anyone else wanna share their own top stock tips for the next few weeks?

HMPRO is an excellent stock by the way - even at the price today. Well undervalued in my opinion.

HOMEPRO is a good growth stock..i prefer buying growth stocks i.e. those with the highest growth increases in profit, income, sales and EPS and whose stock price is already rising. The highest growth stocks in SET - HOMEPRO SENA, BANPU, LANNA, TTW, CMR, DSGT KCAR.

I guess I'm too emotional for stocks.

I lost money in the US trading and am thinking about Thai stocks.

But, HMPRO? Sorry but when I went in one of the huge new stores yesterday, they had about 20 employees standing around and I was one of 4 customers. (I bought a 200 baht item) I can't buy a company that is losing money like that.

Now KBANK is one I've been watching. But, I see people on here buying it for it's dividend (which is listed at 2.5%)

However, the stock has dropped 10% in the past 30 days. (wouldn't it take 4 years to get that money back?)

I am guessing that perhaps the market hasn't hit bottom and may not until after (or closer to) the Taksin decision near the end of this month.

HMPRO's net profit increased 96% from 2008-2009- as you say its easy to fall the trap of buying stocks by emotion and gut feelings rather than cold hard analysis of facts e.g. visiting an empty store and using that to base your analysis on companies profitability.

I think KBANK paid 6 baht per share last year?? ( i wasnt in the market then).

Yes, Kbank is down 10% last 3 weeks, but i bought into it for dividends not quick trading..

I think you are right, we havent reached the bottom yet..

[thecottonmill]

This is like tennis. haha.

So, anyone else wanna share their own top stock tips for the next few weeks?

HMPRO is an excellent stock by the way - even at the price today. Well undervalued in my opinion.

HOMEPRO is a good growth stock..i prefer buying growth stocks i.e. those with the highest growth increases in profit, income, sales and EPS and whose stock price is already rising. The highest growth stocks in SET - HOMEPRO SENA, BANPU, LANNA, TTW, CMR, DSGT KCAR.

I guess I'm too emotional for stocks.

I lost money in the US trading and am thinking about Thai stocks.

But, HMPRO? Sorry but when I went in one of the huge new stores yesterday, they had about 20 employees standing around and I was one of 4 customers. (I bought a 200 baht item) I can't buy a company that is losing money like that.

Now KBANK is one I've been watching. But, I see people on here buying it for it's dividend (which is listed at 2.5%)

However, the stock has dropped 10% in the past 30 days. (wouldn't it take 4 years to get that money back?)

I am guessing that perhaps the market hasn't hit bottom and may not until after (or closer to) the Taksin decision near the end of this month.

HMPRO's net profit increased 96% from 2008-2009- as you say its easy to fall the trap of buying stocks by emotion and gut feelings rather than cold hard analysis of facts e.g. visiting an empty store and using that to base your analysis on companies profitability.

I think KBANK paid 6 baht per share last year?? ( i wasnt in the market then).

Yes, Kbank is down 10% last 3 weeks, but i bought into it for dividends not quick trading..

I think you are right, we havent reached the bottom yet..

KBANK is a great stock. I bought it last year at 40 baht. Sold it at 74 baht. I'll rebuy it if it drops below 70 in a couple of weeks.

HMPRO really is an excellent stock - well run company. There's a chance it'll fall below 4 baht and if it does I'd buy it up.

So far on this forum I've been surprised by some suggestions - MBK? Not too bad actually. KCE - not too sure about this one. Perhaps, if it falls enough in the next 2 weeks.

It'll be an interesting 2 weeks in the SET. Hope everyone here does well out of it. I'm still trying to sell my remaining holdings in the next day or two.

[Orion76]

I would call Buffet a buy and hold investor, but one that chooses when he buys carefully. He has said before that some stocks he may never sell, so how can you say he is timing the market?? In the investment definition of the word, he is a value investor that buys and holds. A quick search and I found this:

Buy and hold

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Buy and hold is a long term investment strategy based on the view that in the long run financial markets give a good rate of return despite periods of volatility or decline. This viewpoint also holds that market timing, i.e. the concept that one can enter the market on the lows and sell on the highs, does not work for small, or unsophisticated, investors so it is better to simply buy and hold.

The antithesis of buy and hold is the concept of day trading in which money can be made in the short term if an individual tries to short on the peaks, and buy on the lows with greater money coming with greater volatility.

One of the strongest arguments for the buy and hold strategy is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH): If every security is fairly valued at all times, then there is really no point to trade. Some take the buy and hold strategy to an extreme, advocating that you should never sell a security unless you need the money [1].

Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings.

Did you want to write Wikipedia and tell them their definition is wrong??

I wrote Wikipedia and they were kind enough to update their update their definition:

Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings, and has built his fortune by investing in companies at times when they were undervalued. Some may argue that Warren Buffet is a long term market timer.

[Alter2]

I would call Buffet a buy and hold investor, but one that chooses when he buys carefully. He has said before that some stocks he may never sell, so how can you say he is timing the market?? In the investment definition of the word, he is a value investor that buys and holds. A quick search and I found this:

Buy and hold

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Buy and hold is a long term investment strategy based on the view that in the long run financial markets give a good rate of return despite periods of volatility or decline. This viewpoint also holds that market timing, i.e. the concept that one can enter the market on the lows and sell on the highs, does not work for small, or unsophisticated, investors so it is better to simply buy and hold.

The antithesis of buy and hold is the concept of day trading in which money can be made in the short term if an individual tries to short on the peaks, and buy on the lows with greater money coming with greater volatility.

One of the strongest arguments for the buy and hold strategy is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH): If every security is fairly valued at all times, then there is really no point to trade. Some take the buy and hold strategy to an extreme, advocating that you should never sell a security unless you need the money [1].

Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings.

Did you want to write Wikipedia and tell them their definition is wrong??

I wrote Wikipedia and they were kind enough to update their update their definition:

Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings, and has built his fortune by investing in companies at times when they were undervalued. Some may argue that Warren Buffet is a long term market timer.

So now you just have to write Buffet himself...??

Edited February 16, 2010 by Alter2

[Orion76]

So now you just have to write Buffet himself...??

I would, but as you probably know, Buffet doesn't use email and I don't use fax... so that option is off the table

[Orion76]

Honestly man, what do you think buffet would have to say to you, if you told him he tries to time the market. I mean, this guy does not try to profit from short term swings, everyone knows this. When you use the term, time the market, it implies one is trying to beat buy and hold returns buy jumping in AND out of the market on a regular basis, not, once a decade.

That is your personal interpretation of "timing the market". There is no official definition or scientific evidence of the amount of time involved.

If one believes that there is a stock market crash about once every 10 years, and one only buys at the bottom of those crashes, then one is timing the market with a decade long time frame.

[Orion76]

Where exactly does it give a precise definition of the amount of time there has to be involved to define an investment strategy as "timing"?

Does it say somewhere that if you buy and sell monthly it is "timing" but if you buy and sell yearly or on average every 5 years it is not "timing"?

[Orion76]

Where exactly does it give a precise definition of the amount of time there has to be involved to define an investment strategy as "timing"?

Does it say somewhere that if you buy and sell monthly it is "timing" but if you buy and sell yearly or on average every 5 years it is not "timing"?

If you buy and sell monthly, that would be trying to time the market, by swing trading. You are not swing trading if you buy once every 5 years. Not my definitions, once again. And again, I ask you, if, they are one and the same, how can there be an article which debates the benefits of each type of trading? When an investor has a long term time line, it is considered buy and hold. Simple concept, well, at least it is for most.

I didn't say swing trading and value investing are the same, or that short term and long term investors are the same. I said both types time the markets.

How can there be articles that claim people are abducted by aliens? Your question is irrelevant. Even so, where exactly is there a definition that states unambiguously the time limits on "timing the market"?

[Orion76]

Ok I'll stop teasing now

Let's talk about risk management instead. How many years do you hold on to your companies after they stop paying out dividents?

[Abrak]

I will give you one.

We hold CS Loxinfo.

Dividend yeild - 22%

Was 26% when we bought.

http://www.set.or.th/set/companyprofile.do...&country=US

Are you sure on your numbers.

The link you gave shows a dividend yield of 12.5%.

This is based on a total dividend for the year of Bt0.41 (Bt0.27 + Bt0.14)

Obviously it is a pretty good dividend in itself but it is the equivalent to a dividend payment to shareholders of nearly 90% of the company's annual net profit for 2009. CSL has consistently paid very high payout ratios which tends not to be a particularly good basis for assuming that dividend payments will be maintained in the future.

I have no idea what sort of profits they will make this year so it is quite possible that you have a fair idea about an improvement in current trading that will lead to a sharp rise in profit and dividend.

[Abrak]

I think you have to be reasonably careful using a Thai companies dividend yield as much of a value parameter.

In the West, companies tend to have a lower payout ratio of earnings - say an average 30% - because they wish the dividend to be a medium term indicator of what they can afford. The lower payout ratio gives them the flexibility to increase the ratio if the company has a couple of bad years but they feel it is set at a sustainable level. If earnings double the company is having an exceptionally good year they will probably not increase the dividend to the same extent. In other words they are trying to give shareholders a steady (and hopefully improving) stream of income that is largely independent of short term volatility of earnings.

This is simply not the case in Thailand and a high dividend yield may simply be an indicator that it is about to be cut. As the Op points out at the beginning, the erratic dividend record of Thai companies really isnt impressive. If the dividend is simply some vaguely fixed proportion of earnings, you are probably better offer looking at earnings yield.

[Abrak]

So the dividend was cut from 26% to 12%, and we are to be angry about this? No, we are not. Can you show me where any company in the west is paying 12%? And, including receiving the dividend, we are also up on our capital by around 6.5%. We are still bullish on the Thai market for the long term, 5-10 years, and will continue hold, accumulate more shares, and collect the dividends. This is our plan, and it sits well with us, as we are not 100% invested in the SET, but instead quite diversified with other markets and assets.

Best

No the dividend was not cut from 22% to 12.5% it was cut from Bt0.45 for the year ended 2008 to Bt0.41 for 2009. And that if the company had paid a more westernized payout ratio of 30% rather 90% then the yield would be 4.2%. I was simply interested in your comment that it had a 22% yield. I am a big fan of the Thai market and have a lot invested there.

(If you do not check on the fundamentals, profits, earnings, balance sheet, cash flow etc on the companies you invest in you are not really investing at all but simply gambling IMHO)

Edited February 24, 2010 by Abrak

[Abrak]

Here is the link to the thread where I mention that dividend yields have dropped.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Starting-Mut...fe-t340696.html

Yes well 180 about a third dont pay dividends at all.

Still there are on a very basic screening 32 companies that have PE<10, dividend yield >9% and P/BV<1. Mind you I suspect about half have something seriously wrong with them.

[Abrak]

Oh I did find one more company that has seen consistant growth in its dividend over the last 5 years. SC Asset management. Dividend increased consistently from Bt0.4 to Bt0.9. PE about 5x yield 8% and run by a Shinawatra.

[Naam]

Oh I did find one more company that has seen consistant growth in its dividend over the last 5 years. SC Asset management. Dividend increased consistently from Bt0.4 to Bt0.9. PE about 5x yield 8% and run by a Shinawatra.

the problem i see is that one invests in a corporation which only manages but does not possess any assets.