On Jan 1, 2011, Thaksin Will Be ...

[Jingthing]

This serves as a logical followup to the will Abhisit still be PM on Jan 1, 2011 thread.

Nobody knows the answer now. Lets see how well we predict what will happen.

Regarding the choice -- No longer among the living

I wasn't sure whether it was OK to include or not. I realize it will be controversial but I also thought people would complain if I didn't include it. If the mods find it offensive, please just edit it out.

Sorry, I already noticed a flaw.

Choice A overlaps with B and C. Oh well, vote whatever sounds best to you.

A - Not in power in Thailand, still in exile

B - In exile, still trying to come back to power

C - In exile, quit trying to come back to power

Edited January 2, 2010 by Jingthing

[just_another_guy]

I voted the third choice, but all bets are off if the unspeakable occurs between now and January 1, 2011.

[sharecropper]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

[Jingthing]

I voted the third choice, but all bets are off if the unspeakable occurs between now and January 1, 2011.

That goes without saying, but all eventualities can be factored into your personal prediction.

[Jingthing]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

The first choice covers that. Don't make me hunt you down to give you a spanking.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Jingthing

[sharecropper]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

The first choice covers that. Don't make me hunt you down to give you a spanking.

Hey, I like to gild the lily!

[Jingthing]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

The first choice covers that. Don't make me hunt you down to give you a spanking.

Hey, I like to gild the lily!

And I like to rouge the fanny, so watch out!

Back to the poll. I really don't have a strong feeling about the answer. Logically, I don't think he will ever be PM again, too much baggage, etc. I voted in jail, just a gut feeling guess based on nothing.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Jingthing

[monkfish]

Yea right and on the 01/01/2011 you will be saying i told you so probably with links to this thread. lol.

Truth is nobody knows what going to happen in 2011 but we do know that the government wants to get rid of Thasin so the death as an option is viable.

[Jingthing]

Yea right and on the 01/01/2011 you will be saying i told you so probably with links to this thread. lol.

Truth is nobody knows what going to happen in 2011 but we do know that the government wants to get rid of Thasin so the death as an option is viable.

For sure if he is in jail on that date, I will certainly post I told you so and what a great guesser I am. That's the idea of the poll, really. So go for it.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Jingthing

[sharecropper]

Yea right and on the 01/01/2011 you will be saying i told you so probably with links to this thread. lol.

Truth is nobody knows what going to happen in 2011 but we do know that the government wants to get rid of Thasin so the death as an option is viable.

For sure if he is in jail on that date, I will certainly post I told you so and what a great guesser I am. That's the idea of the poll, really. So go for it.

Truth is nobody knows what going to happen in 2011 ?

2010 surely?

Anyway, The Amazing Kreskin probably knows, so I may get back to you after a consult.

[Jingthing]

By Jan 1, 2011. Same diff.

[Publicus]

The Amazing Kreskin, or at least according to his appointments assistant was quite tied up when I called even tho I called on his private personal line. However, I also have a private line to the single one lone descendant of Nostradamos who, despite as we know is of French lineage, responded "Que sera, sera."

So, left to my own devices, I voted "In exile still trying to come back to power," which as of this posting ranks among the voting as - oops, I can't say either the raw or the percentage vote, can I? Or maybe if I could it still might not be kosher. 

Why that option? Because if between now and then the unmentionable happens, Thaksin still would need time to try to arrange his return. Remember the Times of London interview? Thaksin spoke of a new shining light coming soon to the future of Thailand, which to me indicates he already may have a deal worked out with a certain someone who anyway sooner or later will have his hands on the buttons and switches of the lighting control panel.  

If the unmentionable doesn't happen during 2010, which would be a relief, then Thaksin likely should be expected to continue to be in exile trying to return to power. As one can see, I'm discounting the possibility the reds could succeed in dislodging the government in the coming months, my judgement about that being Anupong won't allow it because continued stability in government is requisite. If Anupong has to come down on insurrectionists swiftly and decisively, he will. 

Hey, you asked! 

[Publicus]

Well, as one can see, here in the PRC I'm having internet difficulties at the moment, to include accessing TV not to mention making posts - nothing new to me but at the moment moreso for whatever reason(s) - so mods kindly do your thing to clean up all of this mess from my location, i.e., the censoring and internet obsessed PRC.

[garyh]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

He was rightfully elected and still has the support of the majority of Thai's.

[Jingthing]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

He was rightfully elected and still has the support of the majority of Thai's.

Abhisit, you mean?

Anyway, so far the poll leader is that Thaksin (and Thailand) will be in the same boat regarding the big man in a year's time. I find that a little depressing! Somethings gotta give, sometime ...

[wayfarer108]

I voted No Longer Among The Living because of the cancer rumors. Wonder if others who selected that choice did so for the same reason or had other ideas.

[Jingthing]

I voted No Longer Among The Living because of the cancer rumors. Wonder if others who selected that choice did so for the same reason or had other ideas.

My original idea was to offer two choices for that option, natural causes and "otherwise" but I thought that would really be pushing it, bad taste wise ...

[Publicus]

I voted No Longer Among The Living because of the cancer rumors. Wonder if others who selected that choice did so for the same reason or had other ideas.

My original idea was to offer two choices for that option, natural causes and "otherwise" but I thought that would really be pushing it, bad taste wise ...

I'd say most of the affirmative votes on the question fall into your once contemplated "otherwise" category, so the question seems fine as you decided it to be. I mean with all the recent hysteria about it, especially by Jakrapon, I'd think the "otherwise" option you'd considered would dominate people's thinking about the question regardless of how we did vote. 

It's a viable listing of possible scenarios which any one of us could have done differently, but then none of us had the idea or if anyone else did no one else followed thru on it. So let's run with it and vote. I think the vote of the number of people who think a certain way on Thaksin being in self-imposed exile and quit trying to return to power is interesting.     

Edited January 3, 2010 by Publicus

[sharecropper]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

He was rightfully elected and still has the support of the majority of Thai's.

Abhisit, you mean?

Anyway, so far the poll leader is that Thaksin (and Thailand) will be in the same boat regarding the big man in a year's time. I find that a little depressing! Somethings gotta give, sometime ...

Abhisit, for all his good qualities, including extreme intelligence, knows he is a usurper and that Thaksin was illegally deposed, which I suspect has limited his effectiveness as PM. If he won an election as the leader of the Democrats, then things might be different. But for now he is, rightly or wrongly, perceived as a puppet of the illegal coup mob/increasingly less-complacent Bangkok Elite.

Edited January 3, 2010 by sharecropper

[wayfarer108]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

He was rightfully elected and still has the support of the majority of Thai's.

Abhisit, you mean?

Anyway, so far the poll leader is that Thaksin (and Thailand) will be in the same boat regarding the big man in a year's time. I find that a little depressing! Somethings gotta give, sometime ...

Abhisit, for all his good qualities, including extreme intelligence, knows he is a usurper and that Thaksin was illegally deposed, which I suspect has limited his effectiveness as PM. If he won an election as the leader of the Democrats, then things might be different. But for now he is, rightly or wrongly, perceived as a puppet of the illegal coup mob/increasingly less-complacent Bangkok Elite.

As opposed to the Northern/Northeastern Elite represented by Thaksin, Jakrapop and other PT leaders.

[livinthailandos]

you should have added more options but here goes my options

a. Thaksin Dies of Cancer ( i heard rumors of this to plus I heard back last year a team of doctors flew to go see him )

b. Depending on the upcoming court case provides more options:

1. He loses and his found guilty of all charges ( this leads him to live in exile till either has passes away of old age or runs out of money )

2. He is not found guilty gains back all of his money and now has enough money to realistically to influence and become PM again

c. But some luck he is granted a royal pardon

I say for everyone lets more or less see how the court case goes this will give us a better idea of what may happen this year as there is a lot of money involved to

[Jingthing]

you should have added more options but here goes my options

a. Thaksin Dies of Cancer ( i heard rumors of this to plus I heard back last year a team of doctors flew to go see him )

b. Depending on the upcoming court case provides more options:

1. He loses and his found guilty of all charges ( this leads him to live in exile till either has passes away of old age or runs out of money )

2. He is not found guilty gains back all of his money and now has enough money to realistically to influence and become PM again

c. But some luck he is granted a royal pardon

I say for everyone lets more or less see how the court case goes this will give us a better idea of what may happen this year as there is a lot of money involved to

That you so much for sharing with us your poll design stylings.

However, bottom line this here poll is what it is.

By setting a date in time, JAN 1, 2011, you are free to include any and all decisive factors that you think are relevant, to come up with your personal prediction of where Mr. T will stand on that date. This is the kind of poll that could have been designed a million ways. (Everyone's a critic.)

Let me put this another way. I think endless critiques of poll designs are tedious and pointless. Everyone is free to design their own poll, but for some weird reason, very few people do.

This poll is intended for discussion purposes about the TOPIC, where Thaksin will be and of course also why and how that may happen, not really about the poll itself.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Jingthing

[geriatrickid]

You failed to include as a possibility "comes back as rightfully elected prime minister deposed by an illegal coup, with the backing of a UN coalition force who round up the plotters, whisk them off to the Hague and put them on trial like Charles Taylor."

I'll go for that.

As sympathetic as I am to your scenario, it is about as likely as Mr. Thaksin becoming an adult film star.

The UN can't even act on sanctions in respect to the madman in Iran and his nuclear bomb obsession.

How about a coalition of asian liberation forces consisting of Vietam and Cambodia slice off vast tracts of the country and set up a puppet state in the north while Malaysia takes over the the area annexed by Thailand? These areas prosper while Bangkok residents plunge into poverty with many forced to seek jobs in Pattaya's go-go clubs displacing the Isaan folks who have all gone home to take advantage of the opportunity brought by the new state in the north?

C'mon now, wouldn't it be a treat to see some of those pompous hiso boys and girls shaking their thangs for the delight of the expected influx of Nigerian, indian and Middle eastern tourists that will flock as economic conditions force prices down?

[PeaceBlondie]

C'mon now, wouldn't it be a treat to see some of those pompous hiso boys and girls shaking their thangs for the delight of the expected influx of Nigerian, indian and Middle eastern tourists that will flock as economic conditions force prices down?

Wow, kid - the very thought of those pompous hiso boys and gifrs shaking their thangs has me titillated.

[bino]

The decision on his confiscated funds of the AIS sale to Singapore is coming soon, and you just know he ain't going to get any of it back. Combined with dwindling resources elsewhere, and what have to be huge alimony payments, I voted for the second to last choice; self inflicted.

[wayfarer108]

Sorry to go off on a tangent, but ever notice how Jingthing throws a fit when you criticise his polls? It would be nice if he could do it right, just once, and create a poll that doesn't include irrelevant and inconsistent answer choices, which act as detractors and skew the results (whether intentionally or not).

OK back to the topic at hand, I just hope Thaksin grows up, faces the court in person, and follows his repeated promised to retire from politics. It's not inconceivable.

[Davidusaf99]

I suppose logic would dictate that if you don't like his polls, then don't participate, or make your own...

[Jingthing]

Sorry to go off on a tangent, but ever notice how Jingthing throws a fit when you criticise his polls? It would be nice if he could do it right, just once, and create a poll that doesn't include irrelevant and inconsistent answer choices, which act as detractors and skew the results (whether intentionally or not).

OK back to the topic at hand, I just hope Thaksin grows up, faces the court in person, and follows his repeated promised to retire from politics. It's not inconceivable.

If you read my OP, you will see that I acknowledged a flaw in this particular poll. I made that edit after it was possible for me to fix the poll, so sorry, sir! There is no intention to skew any results in this poll. This poll is just a way to encourage discussion and also to see how good we are as a group in predicting the future. Check it out a year from now and we will see. Some of my polls are cleaner than others, of course. The simpler the better, but this was a complex subject, and I did make an obvious error with the overlap of some choices (by accident). I am just another member. If the site wants to employ a professional polling organization, they may do so. For now, we just have imperfect members. Throw a fit? If you are going to attack, expect a response. Also, if you think you can do better with this topic or any others, you are aware the poll making facility is open to ALL members including you, right?

Next ...

Edited January 5, 2010 by Jingthing

[Publicus]

C'mon now, wouldn't it be a treat to see some of those pompous hiso boys and girls shaking their thangs for the delight of the expected influx of Nigerian, indian and Middle eastern tourists that will flock as economic conditions force prices down?

Wow, kid - the very thought of those pompous hiso boys and gifrs shaking their thangs has me titillated.

So what's your reaction to the passing thought run by us all of Thaksin the adult film star?    Would you think he would have a big future? 

And to a certain some, hey, Jingthing's is a members' poll presented by a member who posed an interesting and perhaps fascinating question. The guy likes polls, so what's the problem? There's no problem. Sure, it's a long way off, a year from now, but in LOS recently a lot happens in one year. I'm pleased to have voted and I like the numbers/percentages in the category in which I voted - a lot of people see it much the same as I do.    At least as of this post, decidedly more poll participants than in any other category share my view, save a very close one other - still my category has been a consistent #1 or #2.

So I continue to remain fascinated by the number/percentage in the category of "In exile quit trying to come back to power." It seems I'm in good company.