Good Article

[PattayaParent]

^UK politics has historically been based on stop-go policies.

So expect that if there is a new government in UK they will spend, spend, spend to ensure they get re-elected, and only when their position is entrenched will they then talk about cuts.

Edit: after the first 4 year term.

[Pakboong]

According to this report from "The Nation", property prices in Thailand will be going up this year:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/01/25...ss_30121036.php

Hopefully the mods will let this link stay?

Just seen on another Thai News web site, US growth was + 5.7% in last quarter of Q4 2009.

No point in putting the link as it would only be removed!!

This might help the Thai economy & us, with tourists from the US travelling more again, & some even investing in holiday homes?

The help we need is that the vacant units get occupied as quickly as possible.

[dickie58]

So you're predicting that a new government (presumably the Conservative Party) will make swingeing (sic) cuts in public expenditure and make themselves immediately hugely unpopular in what is a recession?

Your " sic " is as redundant as your question.

Popularity has nothing to do with it. NuLabour and the idiot Clown are pretending there wont be any cuts and the Tories are saying there will be but will not specify how much. Either way, the markets expect once the election is over there will be at least 10% cuts each year for at least 3 years. No capital spend, more redundancies, retail and construction to wither and silly service crap no one needed to evaporate. The pus has to be excised and that means property is going nowhere but South. The future is shares, like it always was.

Only an idiot would pay the asking price but, then, Britain has possibly the greatest concentration of the economically illiterate

one could hope to find in one place. How else could one explain the Labour Party?

If you don't study the stock market very carefully, you are very vunerable investing in shares, thought the UK stock market dropped hugely over the last couple of years?

Sounds like have a go @ UK day? Another one with nothing better to say.

Not a great lover of Gordon Brown. The question has to be will the Tories be any better, unlikey in my opoinon

Saw on the web earlier, Thai PM told the media in Davos yesterday, he expects the Thai economy will increase by 4% this year. Not everyone can be wrong, things seem to be getting better worldwide, & locally at long last.

[PattayaParent]

Not a great lover of Gordon Brown. The question has to be will the Tories be any better, unlikey in my opoinon

Saw on the web earlier, Thai PM told the media in Davos yesterday, he expects the Thai economy will increase by 4% this year. Not everyone can be wrong, things seem to be getting better worldwide, & locally at long last.

Most of the unpopular policies that people are now complaining about are remnants from the Conservative dictatorship years of the 1990's, it's only now that the effect is being felt.

But that's enough of this off-topic discussion.

[Laganside]

Your grasp of British political history seems as tenuous as your understanding of economics.

Agree, further discussion is now redundant.

[Rimmer]

Can we get back on topic please which is Pattaya property

[dickie58]

Just been speaking to another British guy i know, although i know where he lives, i didn't realise he was also trying to sell his Sea view large beachfront condo

He has a very nice Sea view condo, 200sqm ++, directly on the beach on Phratmanak, totally renovated 2 to 3 years ago, also 4 sale for, 25 milion bht. He is not getting any viewings either.

This building has a good reputation & is directly on the beachfront, so no problem with the sea view ever being blocked.

This only goes to confirm that the market is dead at the higher end?

[sharecropper]

Just been speaking to another British guy i know, although i know where he lives, i didn't realise he was also trying to sell his Sea view large beachfront condo

He has a very nice Sea view condo, 200sqm ++, directly on the beach on Phratmanak, totally renovated 2 to 3 years ago, also 4 sale for, 25 milion bht. He is not getting any viewings either.

This building has a good reputation & is directly on the beachfront, so no problem with the sea view ever being blocked.

This only goes to confirm that the market is dead at the higher end?

That must be in the "blue" tower block?

Property prices have to come down 30-50% PLUS for me to even be interested in dipping my toe right now, and I have the cash to do so, but will not bring it over here.

Maybe people have to work out what their real estate cost them in terms of land/build price, and exchange rates, and sell them at break-even, before we see a change. But others who bought at or near the top, may be left with losses. That's one of the risks of speculation and investment. I don't mean you or this condo owner, just my opinion generally.

[dickie58]

Just been speaking to another British guy i know, although i know where he lives, i didn't realise he was also trying to sell his Sea view large beachfront condo

He has a very nice Sea view condo, 200sqm ++, directly on the beach on Phratmanak, totally renovated 2 to 3 years ago, also 4 sale for, 25 milion bht. He is not getting any viewings either.

This building has a good reputation & is directly on the beachfront, so no problem with the sea view ever being blocked.

This only goes to confirm that the market is dead at the higher end?

That must be in the "blue" tower block?

Property prices have to come down 30-50% PLUS for me to even be interested in dipping my toe right now, and I have the cash to do so, but will not bring it over here.

Maybe people have to work out what their real estate cost them in terms of land/build price, and exchange rates, and sell them at break-even, before we see a change. But others who bought at or near the top, may be left with losses. That's one of the risks of speculation and investment. I don't mean you or this condo owner, just my opinion generally.

Yes i am talking about the Blue tower!!

I've just recieved a follow up email from one of the central Ptty condo developers, i looked at a condo in this building last year, I might be intrested in one in there when this place sells?

He was saying that there now paying Ptty agents 10% sales commision, he also went onto say out of the last 30 units they sold, only 1 has been sold through an agent

[thaijasmine]

The property market is based on sentiment as much as any other economic factor.

People generally believe what they want to believe and reality is often obscured by foolish optimism.

Savills are simply doing what any other vested interest would try to do and that is to talk up the market.

Frankly, I wouldn't have thought anyone with even a modicum of sophistication would fall for that vacuous tosh but like they say there's one born every minute and when one sucker bites others are bound to follow.

Property practically everywhere else in the world, as a speculative investment, is a busted market and deservedly so. It's former value was utterly disconnected from previous ratios of income to loan and a repetition of the boom is extremely unlikely not least because the banks' recklessness in fuelling the madness is unlikely to be supported again by governments to come.

Get used to the reality chaps and don't take any notice of Britain as a current model with it's prevailing nonsense. Any talk of the recession being over is delusionary and the property market there, now that quantitative easing is soon to cease, will collapse further

Very well said Laganside Its called " deflation " and yes indeed we had better get used to it

[Rimmer]

How people can imagine their property is worth the same as it was last year is beyond me.

Some property is selling but it's got to be 50cents on the dollar before savvy buyers will even go look at it.

Place close to me 4/5 bedrooms on 1 rai overlooking a lake on a golf course last year was 15m. It just sold for 8m. in a only a few weeks.

[sharecropper]

How people can imagine their property is worth the same as it was last year is beyond me.

Some property is selling but it's got to be 50cents on the dollar before savvy buyers will even go look at it.

Place close to me 4/5 bedrooms on 1 rai overlooking a lake on a golf course last year was 15m. It just sold for 8m. in a only a few weeks.

That's a dramatic but good indication of the correction needed.

Now you are a Global and not Local Mod (and congratulations on the change) maybe you will be in the market for a natty new house?

[123ace]

Have you (the sarcatic plebs) actually read the article?? it is actually quite critical of the Pattaya market if you take time to understand it. I think a large proportion of expats dossing in Pattaya are simply unable to understand anything about the buisness community they are in aside from the price of beer. The article basically said less than 25% of the high end condos launched since 2004 have been sold. Are these these words of someone talking the market up??

[ReThai]

25m thb is a large sum of cash almost no matter where you live in the world. Sure it might not be for london or new york, but pattaya is far from either of them. pattaya's not much more than a small sleezy beachtown with poor infrastructure, high crime and some shopping malls.

I'm not saying it's not a nice place to live, and there are much more expensive apartments around, I've seen some as high as 60m, But it would seem money is tighter for the time being and people are taking less risks on investments.

[Beardog]

Sharecropper - Best summary I have seen yet. To get a Thai to buy land )not even a house) the land will have to be 200,000- 600,000 a baht max.(In the Bang Saray area) There are many more Thais that would rather lease your rai for 300 baht a rai to grow cassava. They are for more interested in a new Toyota truck than having a house more than a hobbled shack made of corrugated roof & whatever they can find for walls. They have been a lot more broke as well (& imho) never really were heavy hitters in even moderate real estate deals. now if you get 50% in the market you have done well. Thailand is no different than the rest of the world. Real estate sucks right now & facts are facts there is a big distinction between tourist dollars & people who already live here & the ones that are planning to move here & when their dollar pound or euro or whatever monetary base they use is squeezed so is the flow of the wallet. hard to believe that when I can now by land in Maui Hawaii once $30,000 an acre I can get now for 14-$18,000 Even the beachfront on Kaanapali is 50% or less. I would be floored to think that if you can buy world class property as cheap as it is now -why anyone would flock in droves to buy in Thailand since the crash. It is time to buy cheap....not to sell high.

The guy that wrote that article must be smokin some good shit! Definitely the crooked real estate lingo that has given Pattaya's real estate agents the bad name that they deserve.

Not only is selling stagnant, I have noticed this time of year in Bang Saray the dirt trucks & excavators are usually busy up till July & have only seen about 4 loads of fill dirt in the last month compared to 300-400 loads of fill last year in Jan. Must be a lack of funds or people are halting projects to see what is happening before they leap into a long term investment Here in LOS.

[sharecropper]

If you wish to PM me the later article I am happy to critique that too, unless he does actually deal head on with macro issues in it, which, I think from memory, he doesn’t, although the later article is more balanced.

Just a couple of comments on your comments:

1. To touch on one point you are crtitical of - as Pattaya recives the most tourists of any Thai resort (fact) and as the market caters to freehold condos which is preferred by foreigners (fact) how is this just wishful thinking?

We have many, many tourists right now, and according to ****, of the right kind – Russian middle class (apparently) but I don’t agree with him there either - and the market is still in the toilet.

He says “there is still the combination of the focus on sea-view condominiums on freehold basis for foreigners combined with a very high level of tourist numbers that visit Pattaya annually, which has allowed the market to continue to perform” which implies just because there are a lot of tourists there must also be a lot of buyers, helping the market to perform, but in fact this has only increased rentals to Russians and also timeshares are booming .

2. Most units are ultimately bought by end users by the way - yes, not all, but the end result of end users in Pattaya is quite high.

I know. But there aren’t many of them right now.

3. I know many unit owners that do not live there full time.

What like in virtually deserted blocks like some of the new View Talays and other less prominent developments where there are about 25% and less are actually sold.

4. My view is the market is struggling in line with all markets, but with so much supply now not coming on line in Pattaya this will help the market as supply has sharply dropped!

There is still way too much already on the market without the stuff scheduled to complete this year, and I reckon the inventory will take about 3 or 4 years to clear, assuming all goes well.

Like I say I am happy to go through the later article to which you refer as well and see how his analysis bears up.

[Spalpeen]

A lot depends on your timeframe. Anyone buying now in the hope of making a quick one or two year profit would be making a mistake. But take a ten year view and now is probably a good time to buy. If you have cash, a thick skin when it comes to haggling and the patience to shop around until you find the most desperate seller in the market you could find a bargain. The example was given of a house, previously 15m THB, now sold for 8m.

Pattaya has come a long way in the last 50 years while recessions came and went in the outside world. Imagine a time lapse film of Pattaya over the last few decades and you'll realise that this is a place that is growing, and will continue to grow, very fast.

The government could help by dropping the 51% rule. Having to shift 51% of their units at a discount just forces developers to up the prices on the remaining 49% to compensate. Allowing farangs to own up to 1 rai, even if restricted to a limited area, would also be a big help. A more welcoming visa regime would also help.

The exchange rate is also important. Look where Thailand is, just south of 2 billion ambitious people in China and India and then look at the state of the western economies. Personally, I can only see the THB getting stronger against the western currencies. If that happens, and you can take a long term investment view, rather than the quick buck approach, then this is a very good time to buy.

[Rimmer]

Sharecropper post deleted and along with two replies to same,

Regret the comments on another persons attempt to justify the market are just too over the top.

[sharecropper]

Sharecropper post deleted and along with two replies to same,

Regret the comments on another persons attempt to justify the market are just too over the top.

Noted and spanked.

[hughden]

Just been speaking to another British guy i know, although i know where he lives, i didn't realise he was also trying to sell his Sea view large beachfront condo

He has a very nice Sea view condo, 200sqm ++, directly on the beach on Phratmanak, totally renovated 2 to 3 years ago, also 4 sale for, 25 milion bht. He is not getting any viewings either.

This building has a good reputation & is directly on the beachfront, so no problem with the sea view ever being blocked.

This only goes to confirm that the market is dead at the higher end?

That must be in the "blue" tower block?

Property prices have to come down 30-50% PLUS for me to even be interested in dipping my toe right now, and I have the cash to do so, but will not bring it over here.

Maybe people have to work out what their real estate cost them in terms of land/build price, and exchange rates, and sell them at break-even, before we see a change. But others who bought at or near the top, may be left with losses. That's one of the risks of speculation and investment. I don't mean you or this condo owner, just my opinion generally.

Yes i am talking about the Blue tower!!

I've just recieved a follow up email from one of the central Ptty condo developers, i looked at a condo in this building last year, I might be intrested in one in there when this place sells?

He was saying that there now paying Ptty agents 10% sales commision, he also went onto say out of the last 30 units they sold, only 1 has been sold through an agent

A couple of years ago "the blue tower" was indeed selling at up to 25 million. The last unit I heard of that was sold went for 18 million, and that was by no means an immediate sale. Given that places like The Cove go for twice that amount, seems like a reasonably attractive price.

[Thaifan2]

People talking about 18M condos in Pattaya live in another universe to me .Ha Ha .

[thaijasmine]

A lot depends on your timeframe. Anyone buying now in the hope of making a quick one or two year profit would be making a mistake. But take a ten year view and now is probably a good time to buy. If you have cash, a thick skin when it comes to haggling and the patience to shop around until you find the most desperate seller in the market you could find a bargain. The example was given of a house, previously 15m THB, now sold for 8m.

Pattaya has come a long way in the last 50 years while recessions came and went in the outside world. Imagine a time lapse film of Pattaya over the last few decades and you'll realise that this is a place that is growing, and will continue to grow, very fast.

The government could help by dropping the 51% rule. Having to shift 51% of their units at a discount just forces developers to up the prices on the remaining 49% to compensate. Allowing farangs to own up to 1 rai, even if restricted to a limited area, would also be a big help. A more welcoming visa regime would also help.

The exchange rate is also important. Look where Thailand is, just south of 2 billion ambitious people in China and India and then look at the state of the western economies. Personally, I can only see the THB getting stronger against the western currencies. If that happens, and you can take a long term investment view, rather than the quick buck approach, then this is a very good time to buy.

Spoken like a good estate agent

I believe there is more than adequate time to sit back and wait for lower prices in Pattaya................maybe for several years yet ?

[PattayaParent]

A couple of years ago "the blue tower" was indeed selling at up to 25 million. The last unit I heard of that was sold went for 18 million, and that was by no means an immediate sale. Given that places like The Cove go for twice that amount, seems like a reasonably attractive price.

There's been a unit in that condo up for sale for the last couple of years at 25 million so there's a lot of people that are not attrracted by the price.

[hughden]

A couple of years ago "the blue tower" was indeed selling at up to 25 million. The last unit I heard of that was sold went for 18 million, and that was by no means an immediate sale. Given that places like The Cove go for twice that amount, seems like a reasonably attractive price.

There's been a unit in that condo up for sale for the last couple of years at 25 million so there's a lot of people that are not attrracted by the price.

Indeed. What I said was that the last unit sold at 18 million and it did not sell easily at that price. No chance of getting 25 in today's market.

[foxxx]

what about 60m THB?

http://www.rethai.com/rethai/Pattaya-Condo...le-60700000-110

[sharecropper]

what about 60m THB?

http://www.rethai.com/rethai/Pattaya-Condo...le-60700000-110

Presumably this will go up next to Ocean 1?

I liked this bit: This exiting new project to be built on Jomtien beach......meaning buy it off-plan and hope it gets built.

PS note it is an "exiting" new development, so it may not long be wth us, as opposed to an "exciting" one!

[PattayaParent]

^That's the Reflections development.

[sorensen]

A lot depends on your timeframe. Anyone buying now in the hope of making a quick one or two year profit would be making a mistake. But take a ten year view and now is probably a good time to buy. If you have cash, a thick skin when it comes to haggling and the patience to shop around until you find the most desperate seller in the market you could find a bargain. The example was given of a house, previously 15m THB, now sold for 8m.

Pattaya has come a long way in the last 50 years while recessions came and went in the outside world. Imagine a time lapse film of Pattaya over the last few decades and you'll realise that this is a place that is growing, and will continue to grow, very fast.

The government could help by dropping the 51% rule. Having to shift 51% of their units at a discount just forces developers to up the prices on the remaining 49% to compensate. Allowing farangs to own up to 1 rai, even if restricted to a limited area, would also be a big help. A more welcoming visa regime would also help.

The exchange rate is also important. Look where Thailand is, just south of 2 billion ambitious people in China and India and then look at the state of the western economies. Personally, I can only see the THB getting stronger against the western currencies. If that happens, and you can take a long term investment view, rather than the quick buck approach, then this is a very good time to buy.

Spoken like a good estate agent

I believe there is more than adequate time to sit back and wait for lower prices in Pattaya................maybe for several years yet ?

I think you are right. Now it the time to sit back and wait. Look how condo sales in Bangkok kept falling for years after the 1997 crisis. Prices really bottomed out late 2001, 4 years after the initial crash.

Condo_Thailand.xls

[hughden]

^That's the Reflections development.

Hard to decide whether to go for Reflections, Ocean 1, Waterfront, The Lofts; or just take a short cut and flush vast quantities of cash down the toilet.

[basjke]

what about 60m THB?

http://www.rethai.com/rethai/Pattaya-Condo...le-60700000-110

Presumably this will go up next to Ocean 1?

I assume so because five star was also selling Ocean 1.

I remember he had a classified on TV and once assured in a topic here that the building of ocean 1 should start january 2009.

Probably Ocean 1 has been fully sold out and occupied by now and they have started promoting the next superb investment.

.....................?what you said?Ocean 1 never started?huh