Thai-US Relations Are Drifting Apart

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Thai-US relations are drifting apart

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation

Published on February 1, 2010

IT WAS VERY RARE for an American envoy of good standing to come out recently to criticise the Thai government over a policy of Hmong refugee repatriation at the end of December. Eric John was diplomatic enough to describe the operation as "involuntary"— which meant a forced send-back in layman terms. The Thai government was not happy and strongly rebutted his views. This episode just shows how 176-year old Thai-US relations—the oldest in the region - are getting more rusty by the day, unless something is being done about it.

In coming weeks, given Thailand's geographical location, vexing issues related to repatriation will continue to stalk and black-eye Thai-US relations. The reported repatriation of 3,000 Karen, as well as several tens of thousands of Burmese migrant workers, could easily undermine their friendship, if they come about. The mood in Washington among administration officials and lawmakers is not friendly towards Thailand at all, having not yet recovered from the year-end cross-border Hmong trauma.

No wonder senior Thai and US officials are asking repeatedly what actually is the value of the five-decade old Thai-US alliance. Since he came to power last January, President Barack Obama has repeatedly stressed the importance of the US alliance in the Asia Pacific, but nothing seems to trickle down and impact their bilateral ties. Both sides often ask about what are the indicators in their time-tested friendship. Gone were the days, when hundreds thousands of US troops mounted Afghanistan-Pakistan like operations across Indochina from airbases in Thailand. Back then that was the real meaning of a true ally—a great benchmark.

The world faces a sea change after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the US having a black president who preaches soft power and dialogue as a tool box for diplomacy. After the 1990's, with the peaceful settlement of the Cambodian conflict, Thai-US relations suffered a common symptom of enemy deprivation. Even the nearly three decade-old annual joint military exercise, "Cobra gold", has turned international.

The world's largest multinational military exercises have to constantly come up with new themes without a specific target, as in the past. This year's exercise, which begins today, is focusing on rapid deployment forces to increase capacity to conduct international operations such as terrorism, disaster relief efforts and transnational threats.

With political turmoil ongoing in Thailand since 2006, the US perception of Thailand is not as positive and as enthusiastic as it used to be. At one point, Washington insiders even viewed the country as a failed state that could not function normally and implement agreed policies. Thaksin Shinawatra's world-wide and sustained media spin portrayed Thailand as a non-democratic country, ruled by elites and military dictators, further bruised its image.

Worse still, there are no US lawmakers in the Beltway these days who will speak up in defending Thailand's long standing records. In contrast, those who are anti-Thailand are aplenty. For instance, Senator Patrick Leahy is the most vocal of all as he wants to punish the Thai establishment, especially the military, for its failure to respect international standards relating to the screening and repatriation of refugees.

Whenever repatriations occur over here, key US lawmakers perceive them simply as an act of pushing out innocent people who could be prosecuted and mistreated at home. They want to reprimand Thailand, sending strong messages to its leaders on moral grounds, without putting them into the context of the longstanding Thai-US alliance. Granted the political reality in Washington DC, it is difficult for the administration to back Thailand amid such Congressional hostility. In 2003, the US Congress even allocated a little acknowledged one million dollars to promote democracy in Thailand, because of Thaksin's infamous judicial killings of drug suspects and muddling with freedom of expression.

In coming days, the Thai-US alliance will be put to the test again when Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda makes his first week-long official visit to Washington, beginning on February 5. His delegation will be given the red carpet treatment to highlight the importance of the Thai-US alliance, which so far has been more focused on verification of thick coup rumours than future strategic planning or discussion. However, if there is a push back of Karen refugees ahead of his visit, he definitely will be the target of attacks by US lawmakers and their sanctions.

It will be interesting to speculate on what will be the outcome of the high-level visit. Of late, the Thai Army has looked for non-US military hardware as part of a diversification campaign. That indeed has affected the so-called interoperability of the two armed forces.

Since the US has paid lesser attention to Thailand since the 2006 coup, military leaders have been looking for new sources of weapons elsewhere. Washington often sees value in Bangkok on an ad hoc basis, depending on logistic requirements of specific missions. A senior Thai military official described the US attitude towards Thailand this way: "We will call you when we need you." Thailand's participation in the extraordinary rendition programme in 2003 to detain terrorist suspects and the arrest of Hambali were cases in point.

To be fair, Washington has been cossying up with the Abhisit government, with growing rapport between Obama and Abhisit helping tremendously to push Thailand up from a back seat through their meetings at three summits last year. Obama even praised Abhisit for his effective Asean chairmanship and leadership at the end of the first Asean-US leaders' meeting in Singapore. Somehow though, Abhisit has not been able to shake off the image of a non-elected government.

Washington's mood also affects other Southeast Asian countries. For instance, Vietnam, which used to occupy top slot in the US during the Bush administration, is no longer in such a position. Repeat prosecutions of human rights activists have tarnished the Congress' goodwill toward Vietnam. Chances of having the second Asean-US leaders' summit in Vietnam are near impossible at this point in time.

Indonesia's burgeoning democracy has made the country quite popular on the US top list. Singapore continues to be an all-time favourite because it is no-nonsense in its pro-US position.

Thailand has informed the US it would seek more equal and balanced relations with the US. If possible, further talks to amend the archaic Thanat-Rush defence agreement (1962) could be in the pipeline to keep up with the current geo-strategic landscape in the region. Since the Cold War threat no longer exists, there is an urgent need to review the first defence cooperation in Southeast Asia.

Both sides must ensure that the third round of strategic dialogue, scheduled in early March, would be tangible and comprehensive.

-- The Nation 2010-02-01

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[jonclark]

If Thailand wants a more balanced and equal relations with the US, What is Thailand prepared to give?? as well as take?

[toybits]

Is this a sign that the US of A is loosing its shine? It looks to me like the US of A is in decline. Emerging economies like China and India seems to be creeping into picture.

[alant]

"Thaksin Shinawatra's world-wide and sustained media spin portrayed Thailand as a non-democratic country, ruled by elites and military dictators, further bruised its image."

same as the yellow shirts then, why the red yellow conflict?

[basjke]

Does the Nation ever publish an article which doesn't contain the word 'Thaksin"?

[geriatrickid]

Score another one for me for pointing this out awhile back on the Abhisit human rights thread.

I told you the current Thai government was not particularly well regarded by several foreign governments. Some of the bad rep is attributable to the lingering fallout from the airport seizures (doesn't matter if he was not responsible, it still attaches to Thailand), followed up by the treatment of Burmese refugees and now the Hmong. Throw in the increased number of complaints from nationals and I trust people will understand why the Abhisit regime will not be receiving valentines cards from many western countries this year.

[sharecropper]

If Thailand wants a more balanced and equal relations with the US, What is Thailand prepared to give?? as well as take?

Maybe it will give "back" some more refugees to neighbouring countries. That should endear itself nicely.

I still don't understand what Thailand thought it would acheive by its forced repatriation of Hmong (the Rohingyas seem to be second class refugess in the world's eyes and so got less attention). Is it just another example of appalling Thai political misjudgment - thinking it played well domestically but nobody else in the world would notice?

[Jingthing]

What did they expect the reaction to be for the repatriation? Did they expect a medal? These things have consequences.

[Credo]

The reputation of Thailand has been dropping steadily--not that it had far to go. Tourism is still based on some less than stellar moral places and it has never shaken that image. The government was up until the coup of '06 was pretty much left alone. Now the political antics in the country are center stage as well. Add that to it's now horrible human rights record and you have a pretty dysfunctional set of parameters.

[givenall]

If Thailand wants a more balanced and equal relations with the US, What is Thailand prepared to give?? as well as take?

May be Thailand is looking to be closer to China. China has more economic advantages for Thai than US now and in future

[Jingthing]

If Thailand wants a more balanced and equal relations with the US, What is Thailand prepared to give?? as well as take?

May be Thailand is looking to be closer to China. China has more economic advantages for Thai than US now and in future

Yes but China is now acting like a bully. Personally I think Asean needs the US as a balance in dealing with China.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3308661

Edited February 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[toybits]

But hasn't the US of A also acted like a bully? The US of A has supported dictators like Marcos, Manuel Noriega, The Shah of Iran, why even Saddam Hussein. Even Hamid Karzai is said to be a puppet of the US. Isn't that a act of brutalizing people of those countries? By supporting these bullies, the US of A was itself a bully.

Now, that Okinawa has elected an anti-US Base mayor, the US is in danger of further loosing ground in Asia. It has lost it military base in the Philippines and Thailand.

Does Asia really need the US as a counterbalance to China? Well that would depend on what the US is prepared to give.

If Thailand wants a more balanced and equal relations with the US, What is Thailand prepared to give?? as well as take?

May be Thailand is looking to be closer to China. China has more economic advantages for Thai than US now and in future

Yes but China is now acting like a bully. Personally I think Asean needs the US as a balance in dealing with China.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3308661

[Jingthing]

But hasn't the US of A also acted like a bully?

That was implied. Welcome to realpolitik.

[toybits]

Many countries have problems with illegal immigrants. Just look at Calais in France, the Mexican-American Border, Christmas Island (Australia). Not too long ago, several Chinese illegal immigrants died on their way to the US. The issue about refugees and illegal immigrants has been too politicized. Countries bearing the burden of refugees and illegal immigrants would rather see this "problem" disappear. As far as Thailand is concerned, it is not their problem. The Hmong refugees from Laos was a result of the Secret War the US wages in Laos. So the US should take care of that problem.

[jonclark]

But hasn't the US of A also acted like a bully? The US of A has supported dictators like Marcos, Manuel Noriega, The Shah of Iran, why even Saddam Hussein. Even Hamid Karzai is said to be a puppet of the US. Isn't that a act of brutalizing people of those countries? By supporting these bullies, the US of A was itself a bully.

Now, that Okinawa has elected an anti-US Base mayor, the US is in danger of further loosing ground in Asia. It has lost it military base in the Philippines and Thailand.

Does Asia really need the US as a counterbalance to China? Well that would depend on what the US is prepared to give.

I think asia needs a counter balance to china, is the US the right counter balance, probably not, but is there another country with the political, economic and militry might like China. No.

Like it or not, asian countries may have to accept, however grudgingly that the US is needed. If China were to extend it sphere or influence, without the counterbalance i'm sure human rights, censorship etc would suffer. In the same way that globalization when on a ten year spree, when the world was left without a counter balance to the US as the only superpower.

If asian countries lined up to follow china, economically and politically then one party politics would become increasingly prevelent. Would it be worth it to hang onto the coat tails of a economic juggernaut? Maybe, but in 20 years time when the balance of power shifts once again, what will the social costs be?

As for what teh US has to give, well not too much, as it is Asia best interest to have the US as the natural counterbalance, and take the middle path.

[jonclark]

Many countries have problems with illegal immigrants. Just look at Calais in France, the Mexican-American Border, Christmas Island (Australia). Not too long ago, several Chinese illegal immigrants died on their way to the US. The issue about refugees and illegal immigrants has been too politicized. Countries bearing the burden of refugees and illegal immigrants would rather see this "problem" disappear. As far as Thailand is concerned, it is not their problem. The Hmong refugees from Laos was a result of the Secret War the US wages in Laos. So the US should take care of that problem.

Unfortunalty the probelm isn't going to disappear, with the world population predicted to double between now and 2050 to a whopping 18 billion or so, sticking your head in the sand, denying all responsibility and blaming someone else just ain't going to work. Thailand like all the worlds countries are going to have to accept their fair share of migrants, be they political or economic.

Or offer financial insentives for migrants to stay in their country

[Jingthing]

The last time I checked, the US is still Thailand's biggest trading partner. The relationship is more important to Thailand than the US and they should act accordingly if they know what's good for them, which they often don't.

US foreign policy over the years has done some very good and very bad things, some smart things and some incredibly stupid things. However, even considering my bias, I think it is obvious that US power is more benevolent overall than Chinese power, or Iranian power, or Russian power.

Regarding the Lao refugee issue, well the US has indeed taken massive number of Laos in over the course of several decades. Now they have stopped. Remember the government of Thailand at the time was rabidly anti-communist and fully supportive of the US war effort as they feared the fate of Thailand would become the fate of Lao (and Lao royalty) if they did not. Thailand was indeed a partner during that time, and it was not unreasonable that they pay some historical debt on this one. I think Thailand is very wrong in what they did to those refugees as does most of the civilized world. In saying all this, I think what the US did to Laos with the unprecedented bombings was a war crime, but sorry, Thailand was in on it.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[Groongthep]

Many countries have problems with illegal immigrants. Just look at Calais in France, the Mexican-American Border, Christmas Island (Australia). Not too long ago, several Chinese illegal immigrants died on their way to the US. The issue about refugees and illegal immigrants has been too politicized. Countries bearing the burden of refugees and illegal immigrants would rather see this "problem" disappear. As far as Thailand is concerned, it is not their problem. The Hmong refugees from Laos was a result of the Secret War the US wages in Laos. So the US should take care of that problem.

History shows that a significant number of Hmong from Thailand were active supporters of the Communist Party of Thailand (CPT). This fact has not been not lost on the Thai military who still hold a grudge and lump all Hmong both Thai and Lao as the same. As a result the Hmong, even those born in Thailand, have suffered signifcant discrimination often including denial of Thai citenzenship here in their homeland. Nearly all Thais refer to the Hmong as Maeo (แมว) which the Hmong consider an ethnic slur. To escape this racism and look for a better life elsewhere, thousands of Thai Hmong are now claiming that they are really from Laos and that they were allies of the US in the 2nd Indochina War when if fact they were just the opposite. These false attempts to gain entrance into the US by deception have made sorting out the truly deserving from the scammers a very difficult task especially since most all Hmong born more than 20 years ago have no birth certificates or any other proof of citenzenship.

[sharecropper]

As far as Thailand is concerned, it is not their problem. The Hmong refugees from Laos was a result of the Secret War the US wages in Laos. So the US should take care of that problem.

I think you may be right. Maybe that was Thailand's (or some in the military's) intent in effecting this repatriation. A slap in the face for the US.

Perhaps that's why the Americans are so annoyed.

[Jingthing]

200 years from now, should the US still take in Lao refugees from a war in the 1960-70s? Why didn't the Thais Thai-ize those groups years ago? This is clearly the fault of Thailand now.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[hammered]

China is an increasingly powerful player in the region and this will continue into the future. After the economic collapse that hit the US and Uk particularly hard there will also be an obvious attempt for countries to try and diversify trade more especially to China which was relatively stable while others struggled and also as China moves through the stages of development. Thailand will likely try to maintain a neutral balanced position between China and the US in coming years. India is also increasingly important for Thai exports from assembly companies I occasionally deal with.

The US also has its new role to find which will likely be a far less dominant one in the future as economic realities come home to roost.

Changing times. Little places like Thailand need to find their niche as the big players relative strength ebbs and flows.

[Groongthep]

Like it or not, asian countries may have to accept, however grudgingly that the US is needed.

This statement seems to betray a misconception. It is Asian nations, particularly Taiwan and Singapore but to a lesser degree Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines too, who look to the US to counterbalance growing Chinese influence. They are the ones keen on Cobra Gold and other such exercises. With the US military stretched so extremely thin these days with conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan and high tensions in Korea I'm sure the US military brass would gladly do away with or at least scale back their participation in Cobra Gold if only the bureaucrats in the State and Defense Departments would let them do so.

The US is the largest buyer of Chinese products and the Chinese are quite astute businessmen. They know that any military confrontation with the US would be counterproductive to their economic well being and so the military threat posed by China is being greatly exaggerated.

Economically however it is a foregone conclusion that the Chinese will soon surpass the US as the nation with the world's highest GDP and so what if they do. Besides a few whose pride might be hurt by the displacement to second place, life will go on in the US without much if any change in the day to day life of the average citizen.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Groongthep

[Jingthing]

By all means the increasing consuming power of China, India, and yes Thailand is great news for the American economy. We still have lots of sophisticated stuff and services to sell that that monied people want and need.

[Credo]

Human rights is still a base-line from which a great deal of criticism is launched. Thailand has been steadily dropping in this area. Refugees are different from illegal immigrants and in the case of the Hmong, some of the people had already been given refugee status. Returning them is a big No-no in the human rights arena and according to the UN. Negotiating on resettlement is a whole different issue and is done well out of ear shot of the press for the very obvious reason that it can act like a magnet for huge numbers of people to leave a country and create a major headache. The idea that the US would not take the Hmong is ludicrous. Some of the people repatriated have relatives in the States and even if they weren't genuine political refugees, they would be eligible for resettlement through regular immigrant visa procedures.

A second point is the lack of democracy within the country. This is another sticky point with the US. Since the Coup there have been big fractures in many of the institutions and thus they are left exposed and not considered to be completely trustworthy. The current government is widely viewed as being weak and to a greater or lesser extent a product of the coup and the military. It is clear that Abhisit isn't in charge, so who should they call?

Third and probably of greatest importance is the relationship between the US and the military. Historically, a lot of what the US has wanted has gone directly to the generals who have decided what the government will/won't do. Much of this is behind the scenes. There may be (and this is purely speculation) cracks in the military that make that direct line of communication and path of least resistance usable. Some time back the government tried to substantially up the cost of the use of one of the military bases. This was rejected and a new base is being built in Cambodia.

The denied extradition of Victor Bout is a contentious issue (although rather minor), but this has provided a glimpse inside the judicial system.

All in all, on the Thai side, they seem to be more an unreliable fair-weather friend at the moment and to be losing power in SE Asia.

The US may not be as important as it was, but its power ebbs and flows. It will continue to be that way for the foreseeable future.

[animatic]

What did they expect the reaction to be for the repatriation? Did they expect a medal? These things have consequences.

They knew this was the appropriate reaction,

and soon to be arriving reaction before they made the repatriation.

But clearly judged relations with Lao and the direct line through it to China,

for their long term proposed western seaport commercial link

as taking precidense over short term USA reactions.

It's not like the Thai mindset is to worry about hilltribes anyway:

'Hill tribes haven't assimilated enough, and so aren't really "Thai",

and so are tied to foreign elements, and not to be loved or trusted.'

Remember the bruhaha over

ONE kid wanting to be in a Japanese paper airplane competition?

The reaction of the USA to this would have been more a concern then the Hill tribe people,

but not as big a concern as currying favor with a direct route for China to reach the sea.

Real Politique at it's grubbiest, but most realistic.

Sure they want a USA back up position in case... nay WHEN China gets too pushy,

but that day isn't here yet, so China is the market to save their bacon,

and reactions from the human rights groups will take a back seat,

to their long term needs.

Likely a rare case of long term outlook trumping short term expedience.

Edited February 1, 2010 by animatic

[kuffki]

Is this a sign that the US of A is loosing its shine? It looks to me like the US of A is in decline. Emerging economies like China and India seems to be creeping into picture.

USA really does not need Thailand for anything, and USA can do pretty well without having much relations with Thailand, now the question is what would Thailand do without USA ?

China or India would never treat Thailand even remotely close as good as USA did.

To all the America haters, i really do not know what is wrong with you people, I am not American, but i do respect America for its place on the planet. Most likely it is the Brits who always attack America and pro-American posts. Hey wake up, someone had to take a place in the world, America did it.

I have never met anyone from any country in the world, who is as proud to be what they are as American people. Yes many mistakes were made, but also many good things were done.

Just for the record, what and who is UK? UK could not even let out a fart without seeking permission from USA. What good has UK done for the world in the current times?

Nothing but create problem in the Middle East, get kicked out and shamed by Russia. Is there anything else i forget?

All the haters, is the the tall poppy syndrome or just a habit of knocking someone?

There is a saying "never bite a hand that feeds you" Thailand bite the hand many times over the past year or so on a number of issues, now-NO FOOD.

And to further add to the post. To all the West haters and Thailand lovers, it is all great that you have adopted to a new culture and country, but do not forget who you are and where you came from, and what the traditions are/were.

Not to mention who helped Thailand develop into what it is now

[PeaceBlondie]

Unfortunalty the probelm isn't going to disappear, with the world population predicted to double between now and 2050 to a whopping 18 billion or so...

Less than 9 billion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

[PeaceBlondie]

From wiki Main partners U.S. 12.6%, Japan 11.6%, the People's Republic of China 9.7%, Singapore 6.3%, Hong Kong 5.7%, Malaysia 5.1% (2007)

[PeaceBlondie]

Considering how the Chinese now abuse their own non-Han Chinese citizens, rest assured they would mistreat Thai-Thais worse.

[jonclark]

Unfortunalty the probelm isn't going to disappear, with the world population predicted to double between now and 2050 to a whopping 18 billion or so...

Less than 9 billion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

Exactly 1 + 8 = 9