House Dissolution, Civil War, Coup Most Feared

[webfact]

AHEAD OF RULING ON THAKSIN'S ASSETS CASE

House dissolution, civil war, coup most feared

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

The Nation

Published on February 15, 2010

But businessmen, expatriates keep fingers crossed, hoping peace will prevail

BANGKOK: -- A House dissolution, civil war and a coup top the list of investment risks facing businesses ahead of the February 26 landmark verdict on the Bt76-billion assets foreclosure trial.

Former premier Thaksin Shinawatra may be guilty or not. His family's enormous fortune may be forfeited entirely or partially or the whole amount returned.

All these are among the possible scenarios that are prompting virtually all businessmen in this country - Thais or expatriates - to keep their finger crossed.

Many wish the political situation before and after February 26 will not be as bad as the brief street riots last April or the November 2008 airport closures.

Most importantly, they hope there will be neither a civil war among those with divergent political ideologies nor a coup that suspends the country's democratic governance system once again.

These perspectives were shared during last Thursday's roundtable discussion on Thailand's economic recovery versus its political crisis with a focus on the February 26 court verdict - jointly organised by The Nation and Krungthep Turakij.

When the yellow-shirted protestors shut down Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport and Don Muang Airport back in late November 2008 to pressure then Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat into tendering his resignation, visitor arrivals plunged 23 per cent the following month, just when the tourism industry was entering its high season.

Then came April 2009 when the red-shirted protesters went on a rampage on Bangkok's streets in a bid to oust Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. The tourism industry took another major hit, marked by a 22-per-cent fall in visitor arrivals.

Many businessmen now like to joke that Thai politics has become so "colourful" over the past several years, just like the colour-coded teams on the traditional college Sports Day.

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Given the protracted political rifts, Thailand has missed chances to focus on the longer-term strategy of national development, especially with the enforcement of the crucial Asean Economic Community coming up in 2015.

One roundtable panellist said he's really sorry for the sad state of political affairs here, suggesting that more and more businessmen and investors are losing patience and growing increasingly hopeless. Another participant warned that the possible bankruptcy of several European governments, which are now sinking under huge fiscal deficits, might stall the global economic recovery, which is still fragile.

The US economic recovery is still not creating jobs, while Japan remains mired in deflation after two decades of low growth. And China's economic bubbles are increasingly worrisome.

All these factors could trip up Thailand's exports and GDP growth this year.

If the domestic political situation is not stabilised anytime soon, Thailand could be heading for another round of economic troubles.

To protect against uncertain times, a panellist suggested holding onto cash and bullion while selling off stocks and bonds.

Such pessimism also prevails because Thailand is passing through a significant political transition but lacks an effective mechanism to resolve conflicts.

A society cannot solve its problems with street politics. Yet, the parliamentary system also appears to be losing its effectiveness as far as elections are concerned.

One panellist said the flow of funds behind street politics should be cut off by authorities so that we could expect to see an end to the current protests.

An army without logistics and funding will quickly become feeble.

For many optimists, the darkest hour may come on February 26 when the Supreme Court hands down its historic verdict on the assets seizure case.

After that, Thailand should be able to come to terms with any of the outcomes. Political stability should gradually return. Or is that just wishful thinking.

-- The Nation 2010-02-15

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[givenall]

What is this slow news day? They have guessed almost anything and everything.

[Changian]

What is this slow news day? They have guessed almost anything and everything.

It's from The Nation, that's what they do in pretty much every article in the paper. Much easier than doing any real reporting or journalistic investigation into stories.

[brahmburgers]

An Op-Ed piece with a lot of obvious suppositions.

I suggest PM Abhisit stand up and say something akin to Franklin Rooselvelt's "There is nothing to fear but fear itself."

He needs to put things in perspective for the Thai general population. The Red Shirt movement has been faltering and lessening in numbers for months. T and the Reds are banking on a fear-mongering strategy (to spook the judges and the Thai people) as that's about all they have left. A climate of fearing riots might work to sway the judges in to deciding to do the wrong thing (give the money to the Shinawats) - similar to how another group of Thai judges did the wrong thing 7 years ago when they chose not to see the obvious way T was hiding his assets with his chauffeur and maid.

[scorecard]

An Op-Ed piece with a lot of obvious suppositions.

I suggest PM Abhisit stand up and say something akin to Franklin Rooselvelt's "There is nothing to fear but fear itself."

He needs to put things in perspective for the Thai general population. The Red Shirt movement has been faltering and lessening in numbers for months. T and the Reds are banking on a fear-mongering strategy (to spook the judges and the Thai people) as that's about all they have left. A climate of fearing riots might work to sway the judges in to deciding to do the wrong thing (give the money to the Shinawats) - similar to how another group of Thai judges did the wrong thing 7 years ago when they chose not to see the obvious way T was hiding his assets with his chauffeur and maid.

Bombs, violence, threats of killing judges, all doing nothing to help the UDD cause, just consolidating their bad image to more and more people.

I really wonder how the T kids now see all of this. Not some PR statements from their lawyers, not some PR spin claims about how they have wronged.

How do they really feel inside?

Edited February 15, 2010 by scorecard

[grantbkk]

Articles like the one form The Nation have me nervous every time the power or cable TV goes out. It appears The Nation needed to fill some of the page between ads and picked up another bunch of supposition about coming events. My hope is that the next coup will somehow result in lowering the price of beer. This government has let the prices of beer in bars spiral out of control.

[ballpoint]

This crystal ball gazing is easy. I predict:

Thaksin will be given none/some/all of his money back. He will stay away/return in triumph/return in chains.

The red shirts will initiate no/some/widespread violence and none/a few/hundreds/thousands will be killed.

The government will carry on/resign/be forced out/flee the country.

The military will remain in barracks/enforce the peace/crack down on protestors/stage a coup.

Peace will begin/remain a long time coming.

The country will carry on as "normal"/see isolated protests/see widespread protests/see full riots/break down into civil war.

Phuket tuk tuk drivers will continue to rip off tourists.

I am confident that some/all of these will come true.

[h90]

This crystal ball gazing is easy. I predict:

Thaksin will be given none/some/all of his money back. He will stay away/return in triumph/return in chains.

The red shirts will initiate no/some/widespread violence and none/a few/hundreds/thousands will be killed.

The government will carry on/resign/be forced out/flee the country.

The military will remain in barracks/enforce the peace/crack down on protestors/stage a coup.

Peace will begin/remain a long time coming.

The country will carry on as "normal"/see isolated protests/see widespread protests/see full riots/break down into civil war.

Phuket tuk tuk drivers will continue to rip off tourists.

I am confident that some/all of these will come true.

I agree, particularly the last Point (Phuket......) will come true.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

[hammered]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

The problem is what is a sane and fair verdict to one person is the opposite to another.

In the end the elite power struggle will have to come to conclusion and then after that the inequalities issue will have to be played out.

[Tejas]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

Please answer: Does Mr. T really have 76 billion baht of assets inside Thailand that can be confiscated?

I would think not. Surely his cash has long since gone abroad to some secret place.

Real estate holdings are another matter. They can be liquidated.

Businesses.......same as real estate holdings or transfered to the state?

I have thought for a long time that the bulk of his liquid assets are in some safe place.

And that no matter what the courts do he will not be that impacted economically.

Maybe I am wrong.

[h90]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

If they give him the money the yellows will shout unfair.

If they take the money Thaksin (the reds) will shout unfair.

If they give him half the money back both will shout unfair.

[SomTumTiger]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

Although what a "safe and fair" verdict might look at to Winnie, would see Thaksin rolling about with 76 billion baht in his pocket, so that's obviously not the right answer.

[h90]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

Please answer: Does Mr. T really have 76 billion baht of assets inside Thailand that can be confiscated?

I would think not. Surely his cash has long since gone abroad to some secret place.

Real estate holdings are another matter. They can be liquidated.

Businesses.......same as real estate holdings or transfered to the state?

I have thought for a long time that the bulk of his liquid assets are in some safe place.

And that no matter what the courts do he will not be that impacted economically.

Maybe I am wrong.

yes they are frozen money.

UK so they say has already confiscated a large amount (billions of USD), but so they say it was money no one claimed ownership so it was confiscated for money laundry.

I am sure he still has some money somewhere, Singapore would be my first idea.

[Samuian]

I anticipate, with out a crystal ball:

There will be no coup, no civil war, no major upheaval, no jail, no chains, no return, no retreat either and it will be a 50/50 sentence, not to pour oil in to the fire and the "political turmoil will go on for some time to come... till... ah' well, we'll know rather soon!

[jdinasia]

In the end, they hope the players, red- or yellow-shirted, will respect the judges' verdict so that the country may return to normalcy.

Uhm, not really. I hope (very slight hope) that the verdict itself will be a sane and fair one. If it's not, then there's not much point in hoping for the judges to be respected.

Please define "sane and fair" ....

Then tell us how you think that applies in the cold hard face of the law/justice?

By definition the court's decision SHOULD be sane and just. Fair has nothing to do with it. The case should be decided on its merits and only on its merits. Not because Thaksin is a villain (one side's opinion) or because the reds might riot (the other side's option).

[Tejas]

Thank you for that fast response. So that is 76 billion in frozen money......real cash.

I feel an earthquake coming.

[h90]

Thank you for that fast response. So that is 76 billion in frozen money......real cash.

I feel an earthquake coming.

I don't think so....it is frozen since a long time.

Than there is the rumor about the lost money in UK.

than recently rumors were that Thaksin lost money on stock market and had a investments in Dubai which are lost.

rumor are that he borrowed money from Gazprom ASTV also say that he might borrowed money from HunSen.

If that all is true and he looses the 76 billions, he might run out of money and can't finance troubles in Thailand for a while. At least some people hope so.

Edit: but the earthquake may come BEFORE.....

Edited February 15, 2010 by h90

[shadiadi]

Whatever the verdict it will not stop people complaining.

My question is what happens to the Thai Baht

If they keep the money & there are no problems, will it get stronger?

If they keep the money & there are problems?

If they return the money it leaves the economy for ever I can figure this outcome out it's bound to make a dent somewhere.

If there is a big problem here will we all have to leave?

I am sure this is a question on a lot of peoples mind.

[toptuan]

If there is a big problem here will we all have to leave?

I am sure this is a question on a lot of peoples mind.

Only in Bangkok, the cradle of civil unrest in Thailand.

Upcountry and out in the sticks, here, life goes on as usual as it has for hundreds of years, outliving dynasties and 18 coups. Nice time to be living so close to nature and so far from the power centers.

[MaiChai]

Zzzzzz. Is this news?

Its more akin to the kind of sensationalised news we get from Sky/Ruper Murdock and co. Abhisit is right about having laws and following them. Time Thailand shook off its lawlessness.

[losworld]

I've said all along all he has to do is to say "A large portion of the money from the court decision will go to improving hospitals, schools, infrastructure and opportunities in rural Thailand including Isaan".  That should go a long way.

[Bagwan]

By definition the court's decision SHOULD be sane and just. Fair has nothing to do with it. The case should be decided on its merits and only on its merits. Not because Thaksin is a villain (one side's opinion) or because the reds might riot (the other side's option).

Precisely. I would add that the verdict must be in accordance with the law as it stood at the time of any offence.

Whether anybody likes the considered opinion or not should not colour the deliberations of the judges. I understand that expressing criticism of verdicts handed down by judges is a criminal offence. If true, I expect this comic opera to become totally hilarious.

[brahmburgers]

Thank you for that fast response. So that is 76 billion in frozen money......real cash. I feel an earthquake coming.

I don't think so....it is frozen since a long time. Than there is the rumor about the lost money in UK.

than recently rumors were that Thaksin lost money on stock market and had a investments in Dubai which are lost.

rumor are that he borrowed money from Gazprom ASTV also say that he might borrowed money from HunSen.

If that all is true and he looses the 76 billions, he might run out of money and can't finance troubles in Thailand for a while. At least some people hope so. Edit: but the earthquake may come BEFORE.....

At worst (for T), he will go from being filthy rich to very rich. It's ironic that often, the richer a person is, the bigger that person's borrowings. Someone like T may be worth a billion, but then he can leverage that to borrow 4 billion, and so on. Then, in rare cases, if the the walls of deception come tumbling down, as they are with T, then you would assume he'd be in deep doo doo. But not really, as the super rich rarely have a hard place to fall, similar to over-wrought corporations.

Look at the the recent Wall Street meltdown. Only Lehman brothers was allowed to fall. All the other bloated 'too big to fail' poorly managed conglomerates such as AIS were proped up by the US taxpayers. Even if the Shinawats were down to their last million dollars, there would be other rich folks eager to give a hand-out to those down on their luck.

[Donnyboy]

Thank you for that fast response. So that is 76 billion in frozen money......real cash. I feel an earthquake coming.

I don't think so....it is frozen since a long time. Than there is the rumor about the lost money in UK.

than recently rumors were that Thaksin lost money on stock market and had a investments in Dubai which are lost.

rumor are that he borrowed money from Gazprom ASTV also say that he might borrowed money from HunSen.

If that all is true and he looses the 76 billions, he might run out of money and can't finance troubles in Thailand for a while. At least some people hope so. Edit: but the earthquake may come BEFORE.....

At worst (for T), he will go from being filthy rich to very rich. It's ironic that often, the richer a person is, the bigger that person's borrowings. Someone like T may be worth a billion, but then he can leverage that to borrow 4 billion, and so on. Then, in rare cases, if the the walls of deception come tumbling down, as they are with T, then you would assume he'd be in deep doo doo. But not really, as the super rich rarely have a hard place to fall, similar to over-wrought corporations.

Look at the the recent Wall Street meltdown. Only Lehman brothers was allowed to fall. All the other bloated 'too big to fail' poorly managed conglomerates such as AIS were proped up by the US taxpayers. Even if the Shinawats were down to their last million dollars, there would be other rich folks eager to give a hand-out to those down on their luck.

But if we look at recent history, Enron was a the biggest player as well, and we know how that turned out.

AFAIK there was special treatment given to the Goldmans etc from ex-goldmans people Giethner Paulson, theres probably more to it that most people wouldnt understand, or were ever told