Thailand: Another Coup Would Be A Disaster

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Another coup would be a disaster

By Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is now in such a precarious situation that people must try to handle the crisis in a mature manner in order not to lose what little democracy and liberty we have gained over the decades.

Twenty-two people on both sides have already died and more than 800 have been wounded as the deadlock continues.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, now regarded as a "tyrant" by the red shirts, talked tough on Monday and along with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban claimed that some elements within the red shirts wanted to bring about a "major change" far greater than that of unseating the current administration.

The Post Today newspaper, a sister publication of the Bangkok Post and popular among the Bangkok middle class, yesterday stated in its front-page headline, "Turning the Country Upside Down: Suthep reveals a plan to change the country ".

This is a dangerous game that could set the stage for yet another coup and drag Thailand deeper into the political abyss and hatred.

The calls for a coup are mounting. On Tuesday night, this writer watched a popular political discussion programme on TV Thai (formerly TPBS) where a member of the Senate committee on military affairs demanded that soldiers quickly stage a coup.

It was another speaker, a former deputy Army chief, who warned that another coup would turn Thailand into a pariah state. The sad twist, however, is that this general believes a coup is "imminent".

We must remind ourselves at this critical juncture that an immature society cannot become democratic. A society that cannot deal with political conflict without resorting to a military coup every now and then is cursed and cannot hope to become democratic.

The September 2006 coup not only failed to genuinely restore peace but also failed to heal the social division. It might be fair to say that the red-shirt movement is an unintended by-product of the 2006 coup.

Now, if the red shirts refuse to surrender to yet another military coup, which might be in the making as you read these words, then civil war will break out and much more blood will be shed that would make Saturday's clashes seem like a walk in the park.

Even if a coup managed to send most red shirts back home without much violence and fatalities, does anyone truly believe that this will bring long-term peace and stability to Thailand and heal the political divide?

If the answer is no, another coup attempt must then be resisted. People must say no and NEVER, EVER be tempted to go down that slippery road to instant gratification and despotism again.

It's time for Thais to try their utmost to sail through this crisis with maturity. This not only means saying "no" to military intervention, but also requires a willingness to allow people to hold differing political views and enjoy access to their media or political mouthpiece of choice.

The government's clampdown on the red-shirt media and media sympathetic to the red shirts since last week has so far generated more hatred and anger among the movement.

Again, this immature way of handling the conflict by the government can never bring about democracy. It will bring about more social division, however.

And yesterday, the government even went further by trying to block all politically "divisive" comments and pictures online related to the bloody clashes of April 10.

This is most immature and will backfire. People can think for themselves. The fact that a week after the censorship started, more red shirts joined its rallies, is proof of this.

-- The Nation 2010-04-15

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[geovalin]

Excellent article! Very strange coming from the Pravda.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Yes good analysis.

With all the modern technologies, trying to muzzle medias is a stupid behavior. As Anand as underlined a change of attitude is required for getting out of the deadlock. I am afraid we have made one more step toward the uncontrollable,

I repeat, the situation is very similar to the pre-conditions of Spanish Civil war (1936-1939) and we are approaching the critical point....

Typo correction

Edited April 15, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[shawndoc]

Most of the problems we are having now can be laid on the taint (whether real or imagined) of the military coup and its effect on the current constitution and government.

And I fail to see how a coup could in any way bring the situation under control. The reds claim that the current government is just a proxy for the army, so if the army comes in a takes over, there's no reason for the reds to stop. The army has already stated and shown they don't want to use extreme violence to disperse the reds, why would that change if they were in charge? In fact it would stir up more reds and re-energize the reds dwindling numbers.

The only way to get rid of the reds would be if the coup was performed by members of the military who favor Thaksin. In that case, you'd risk a civil war between military factions, and you'd see the red shirts disperse just to be replaced by yellows.

I can't see any way in which a coup will lead peace, or could have anyone imagining it will lead to peace.

The current government needs to weather the storm, and we need to see both red and yellow leaders wind up in jail (yellow first). It needs to be made clear that there are consequences for those leading illegal protests (please note the word illegal) that shut down major infrastructure and encouraging sedition and violence. And the people of Thailand need to understand that in a Democracy that if your side loses, you don't overthrow the government, you do what you can to build support for your side and win at the next elections.

(Although there's nothing wrong with lawful protests to help spread your side's message and encourage parliament to hold a no confidence vote that results in early elections)

[tracymeaw]

Definitely need a clampdown on coups!

[LevelHead]

I see another Thailand English language media is now headlining "Army admit firing live rounds at protestors".

So first the Abhisit/Suthep circus says no soldiers had live ammo.

Then they change that story and say they had some but only fired in the air.

Then they change that story and say had some, fired in the air and only if needed, but not directly at protestors.

Now finally they admit they had live ammo, they fired directly at protestors.

This immoral and parliamentary coup made government is a national disgrace, in fact, its now a worldwide disgrace for Thailand to have them in power and to lie so much.

They got caught out as too many people have camera's video and mobile phone camera's - its 2010 and not 1992.

Why is Anupong not demanding Abhisit resign ? Why has Abhisit not resigned ? Why has Suthep not resigned ? Why has Anupong not resigned ?

Following this you can now see why "THEY" want a coup.

If a coup happens the Democrats can escape their dissolution charge. All those in the government and Army responsible for the deaths can get immunity. They can take Democracy away from the people and "appoint" a government in the "New Politics" way.

That is why it is highly important that Abhisit dissolves the house and calls for elections. A coup should not be allowed to happen or all those guilty will attempt a whitewash.

The "THREAT" of dissolution against the Democrats is just a threat, its a "gun to the head" to make them comply with the demands of certain people for a coup, and then "new politics" of no democracy.

.

[Ricardo]

I believe that most Thais, and certainly both sides of the current divide, will agree that a coup would be unhelpful. This is a long way from the situation in September-2006.

But can the Red-Shirts agree to go home, and use legal non-violent methods, to try to influence the next election, which the PM had already offered (but not promised) to hold by the end of this year ? I doubt that their absent-leader will authorise this.

[Gerryasia]

As far as this whole disturbance has been allowed to progress, I am quite afraid that NONE of the potential outcomes are very encouraging.

Thailand can never be accused of being a "mature" society.

Neither do the masses appreciate "rule of law".

It is not part of their culture.

[griser]

Honestly I think a military ditatorship would be the best for thailand. they are so mired in corruption they can't have an effective democracy.

People here sell thier vote, goverment officials raid the coffers of the people unhindered.

They are on the verge of becoming a failed state and now all the top crooks are poised to take over the country... yeah. a coup would be good at this point!

At least we'd have peace in the streets.

[givenall]

I believe that most Thais, and certainly both sides of the current divide, will agree that a coup would be unhelpful. This is a long way from the situation in September-2006.

But can the Red-Shirts agree to go home, and use legal non-violent methods, to try to influence the next election, which the PM had already offered (but not promised) to hold by the end of this year ? I doubt that their absent-leader will authorise this.

First find out who is pulling the strings. These people don’t even know who they are fighting for

[anotherpeter]

Honestly I think a military ditatorship would be the best for thailand. they are so mired in corruption they can't have an effective democracy.

People here sell thier vote, goverment officials raid the coffers of the people unhindered.

They are on the verge of becoming a failed state and now all the top crooks are poised to take over the country... yeah. a coup would be good at this point!

At least we'd have peace in the streets.

A coup wouldn't necessarily send the protestors home. If it was a "yellow" coup, they still wouldn't have elections in the required 'red timeframe'. If it was a "red" coup, the red protestors would be replaced by yellow protestors.

[Indo-Siam]

Here's my take on the situation: From Day 1, the objective of the UDD has been to induce the Army into staging a coup. This is not because they want the military in charge - it is simply a method of bringing on early elections.

What the UDD wants is fresh elections - much sooner than December 2011. To get that, the existing government must be terminated. There are three main ways for that to occur:

1. The sitting government, led by Abhisit, throws in the towel - executes its own dissolution, and calls for new elections.

2. The coalition partners pull out of the coalition, causing it to fall below majority status in Parliament, and thereby being rendered void. The minor coalition partners either reconstitute a new parliamentary majority - possibly in coalition with PTP - or they announce that thy cannot form a government, and call for new elections.

3. The Army stages a coup, disbands the sitting government, and announces new elections.

If there are other choices, please suggest them.

The Red Shirts have been waiting for outcome #1 or outcome #2 to happen. So far, the sitting coalition has resisted calls for both outcomes - and I presently see no movement toward either. That leaves just approach #3.

From the standpoint of the UDD, they really do not care - they just want the Democrats out of power.

What makes it all work is the general understanding that the Thai Army does not want to (explicitly) run the country - to carry on the functions of national government. Unlike 50 or even 20 years ago, there is no military strongman who wants to personally seize and retain the role of head of government. So - I believe that the UDD would view it as a "safe" option, if all else fails. And - it appears that all else has failed.

The question now is: how nasty and threatening do the Red Shirts need to act, in order to induce the Army to say "enough is enough"? And - the Reds then have to play their cards just right - cause enough chaos and turmoil to induce the tanks to roll, but then quickly fold and become benign, in order to avoid becoming military targets.

And - because of the huge size of the Red Shirt mob, and the relative lack of political sophistication of the majority of the mob, the Red Shirt leadership has to figure out how to make everyone fall in line with a tricky game, almost simultaneously. And - I suspect that is why the Reds are shutting down Pan Fah Bridge - so as to bring everyone into one space. Now - they just have to carefully control the entrances and exits to one space, and flow communications within one gathering of supporters.

No matter what the Red Shirts say, the logistics of sustaining tens of thousands of protesters is a herculean task - and I think they are fervently hoping for a coup, sooner rather than later.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Today is not te correct timing to find the Culprits it is an endless debate.

Today is time to listen to each other as Anand has underlined

Today is time to put the weapons in the storage as well as the military language

Today is time to put aside the agressive leaders

Today is time to develop the common grounds not to exacerbate the differences

Today it is time to get a neutral government above the parties involved in the conflict (Red Shirts, Democrats and allies, Army)

Today Thailand needs a Statemanship for reconciliating and restoring Peace

------------------------------------------------------------

Abhisit and Suthep should understand that they are now an obstacle to Peace

Army is an obstacle to Peace if it moves from its barracks. Army should have never been involved, should be a symbol of Unity. Army has to keep quiet in its barracks and repairs the internal cracks; if not the fractured segments will become roots of partisan insurgencies.

TODAY we have to forget what divide and to concentrate on what is uniting.

edited: typos

Edited April 15, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[geriatrickid]

Honestly I think a military ditatorship would be the best for thailand. they are so mired in corruption they can't have an effective democracy.

People here sell thier vote, goverment officials raid the coffers of the people unhindered.

They are on the verge of becoming a failed state and now all the top crooks are poised to take over the country... yeah. a coup would be good at this point!

At least we'd have peace in the streets.

Your logic baffles me. You are distressed by the nation being on the verge of disaster and crooks taking over and then write a coup would be good. Where have you been for the past 50 years or so? Are you clueless to what has occurred in Thailand during that time? Here are some hints from the past few months;

- An expensive bomb detection device was purchased, that has since been shown to be useless. Despite the money spent, no one in the military has taken responsibility.

- An expensive adventure with a blimp was undertaken. Had the due diligence been effected before the undertaking the obvious would have been discovered.

- There are multiple reports of human rights abuses and allegations of killing squads on the loose in the Southern territories under the control of the army. Yet, there is no acknowledgement of these reports nor attempt to onvestigate the allegations.

- Key military leaders are alleged to have holdings that far exceed their pay grades.

If you are not pleased with the civilian crooks, why would you be pleased with the possibility of crooks in uniform taking over? I take you do not care about such concepts of accountability or really care about law and order ouutside of paying lip service as long as you can do what you want, right?

Has it dawned on you that this is precisely what a specific group is trying to accomplish? Push the society to the edge where it welcomes a military dictatorship. It's a tried and true strategy, but you may find that an attempted coup will make the current UDD- government arguments seem like a punchout on the playground. There will not be peace on the streets because the specific units that would be implicated would cause other military units to resist. It may come as a surprise to you, but there are plenty of military personnel that are honest, resent the conduct of the senior officer corps and they love Thailand. There will be resistance this coup and you will be crying for your former homeland to come and rescue you.

[elcent]

But there was a coup which never should have happened. 2006

Thaksin and his cronies would have met their fate anyway.

As strange as it may sound. The army has taken away the progress made and is likely the only one who can give it back. But this would be all to speculative and as we all have learnt, nobody is to be trusted.

What are the other options?

Well one is at hand and will be more disastrous than any army coup.

Common sense for negotiation? Who? How?

I don't see much light at the moment.

The only way I see as a possibility is to punish both, yellow and red leaders. The gov needs to proceed to a charter amendment in a speedy way and then have election.

The 9 months as proposed seem to be reasonable, it could even happen before that.

The new gov needs to regulate police and military forces to new standards.

People should be encouraged to enforce transparency about the gov's work and budget (in detail) and should have a certain kind of controlling function. ...

[koosdeboer]

I see another Thailand English language media is now headlining "Army admit firing live rounds at protestors".

So first the Abhisit/Suthep circus says no soldiers had live ammo.

Then they change that story and say they had some but only fired in the air.

Then they change that story and say had some, fired in the air and only if needed, but not directly at protestors.

Now finally they admit they had live ammo, they fired directly at protestors.

This immoral and parliamentary coup made government is a national disgrace, in fact, its now a worldwide disgrace for Thailand to have them in power and to lie so much.

They got caught out as too many people have camera's video and mobile phone camera's - its 2010 and not 1992.

Why is Anupong not demanding Abhisit resign ? Why has Abhisit not resigned ? Why has Suthep not resigned ? Why has Anupong not resigned ?

Following this you can now see why "THEY" want a coup.

If a coup happens the Democrats can escape their dissolution charge. All those in the government and Army responsible for the deaths can get immunity. They can take Democracy away from the people and "appoint" a government in the "New Politics" way.

That is why it is highly important that Abhisit dissolves the house and calls for elections. A coup should not be allowed to happen or all those guilty will attempt a whitewash.

The "THREAT" of dissolution against the Democrats is just a threat, its a "gun to the head" to make them comply with the demands of certain people for a coup, and then "new politics" of no democracy.

.

The army admits that the soldiers fired after been shot at, I would do that also if I was in the firing line and my mates were shot. The reds will never admit something, they are a bunch of liars. Do not tell me that there were not armed men in black on the red side and in my opinion they fired and threw bombs also. That's what they promised to do anyhow.

[Ricardo]

I see another Thailand English language media is now headlining "Army admit firing live rounds at protestors".

So first the Abhisit/Suthep circus says no soldiers had live ammo.

Then they change that story and say they had some but only fired in the air.

Then they change that story and say had some, fired in the air and only if needed, but not directly at protestors.

Now finally they admit they had live ammo, they fired directly at protestors.

<snip for brevity>

As I asked, when you made this identical post in the "Anger and Agony Remain" thread, don't you agree that the army might also simply have changed its' tactics, as the situation developed ?

[animatic]

There is no logical reason for another army coup.

Except if it is lead by a pro Red group of traitors.

[anotherpeter]

But there was a coup which never should have happened. 2006

Thaksin and his cronies would have met their fate anyway.

As strange as it may sound. The army has taken away the progress made and is likely the only one who can give it back. But this would be all to speculative and as we all have learnt, nobody is to be trusted.

What are the other options?

Well one is at hand and will be more disastrous than any army coup.

Common sense for negotiation? Who? How?

I don't see much light at the moment.

The only way I see as a possibility is to punish both, yellow and red leaders. The gov needs to proceed to a charter amendment in a speedy way and then have election.

The 9 months as proposed seem to be reasonable, it could even happen before that.

The new gov needs to regulate police and military forces to new standards.

People should be encouraged to enforce transparency about the gov's work and budget (in detail) and should have a certain kind of controlling function. ...

In the opinion of the coup makers, Thaksin was getting too much control, so may not have met his fate if things were allowed to continue.

[wallhigh]

why disaster? its the thai way.

[stevehaigh]

Most of the problems we are having now can be laid on the taint (whether real or imagined) of the military coup and its effect on the current constitution and government.

i totally agree with that. love or hate Taxin, he was a democratically elected PM with 2-3 years left to serve. he should have been impeached for corruption and the courts to decide his guilt. everything has gone nom-up since the coup and i don't see it will ever recover.

[rreddin]

Excellent article! Very strange coming from the Pravda.

Yes, an excellent post. Let's hope that a political solution can be found soon. A military career does not eqip one for running a country. From the rhetoric being espoused by military spokespersons a few weeks back, it looked like they had learned that lesson. Hopefully none of them still think otherwise.

[Teddy3943]

Generally I agree with the comment, but there is much more to say to the present situation. A new coup is bad indeed, but disolving the parliament now is also a bad signal. This triggers futural unsatisfied groups to do the same as the reds do now. And let the reds bringing more damage to the country and individuals is also a bad option.

So the only way out now is trying to talk to bring peace between the opposit parties. Maybe with help from an outsider who is highly respected in the world. We saw achievements through mediation by i.e. Jimmy Carter, Koffi Anan, Bisschop Tutu, and others. In any case there has to be the willingness to come to peace in the interest of Thailand.

The reds have to realize that there is only one institution in a democracy which has the right to assign to use force and that is the government and no one else. So if the reds go the wrong way they will end up at the wrong place. Try to talk the way out, that is the best option.

The silent peace loving citizens of Thailand should raise their voice to let the rest of the country know that they have enough of the occupation of Bangkok and want peace and back to work. Let the leaders of the red group start talking with the government to come to peace and the other reds have to go home. Don't sit in the streets like a stupid cow herd, the weather is really to hot to do that.

One of the basic shortcomings in this country is that the instruments a government should be able to use, like the army, police and local governments are not loyal enough to the central government. In fact everyone can see that most people here are not loyal enough to the laws, rules and structures. This is a main attitude which has to change to make Thailand a more prosperous country. Dicipline and loyalty is needed to increase efficiency and progress. Love each other and work together will give much more satisfaction in the end. One good example of how people should NOT behave you can see in the traffic. Many times when I take part of the traffic and see the agressiveness of many Thai drivers I think: "Is here a war going on?"

[Jerrytheyoung]

There is no logical reason for another army coup.

Except if it is lead by a pro Red group of traitors.

In this kind of situation, you cannot be so peremptory. All extremistms are exacerbated. apparently, there are also some factions not happy because they find Anupong too smooth.

It is time to cool down and a leader not involved in the current conflict to take over and conduct the operations until everybody come to more a reasonable stance. Whatever is your support for Abhisit, - I respect your opinion which is not mine-, today unfortunately for him he is not the man of the situation, he is no more the man who can bring peace. He should call a neutral stateman like ANAND for replacing him until elections are organised (after a cooling period). If not we are heading to adventures and everybody will loose.....

Personnally, I am not for immediate elections because I fear the Campaign will be too early, it will be a butchery in some areas and this can bring more turbulences.

[jonwilly]

The last coup did little but remove the legally elected government and increase Military budget by 30 %.

I do not doubt that a Taksin sympathetic party would secure most votes and be biggest party if an election where held now.

But what of Taksin's health ? Romour started almost 12 months ago on Prostate cancer.

He has been remarkably quite and out of the limelight in last hectic days.

The Thai people will sort out Their Country in their own way which none of us Frangs will ever understand.

john

[webfact]

Pravit is the name of the writer....

Please dont try any tongue-in-cheek

I am aware of it

[anotherpeter]

Most of the problems we are having now can be laid on the taint (whether real or imagined) of the military coup and its effect on the current constitution and government.

i totally agree with that. love or hate Taxin, he was a democratically elected PM with 2-3 years left to serve. he should have been impeached for corruption and the courts to decide his guilt. everything has gone nom-up since the coup and i don't see it will ever recover.

Thaksin was a "democratically" elected PM that dissolved parliament and called elections. Those elections were invalidated by the Consititution courts prior to the coup.

At the time of the coup, Thaksin was the care-taker PM appointed by the King.

[jayboy]

There is no logical reason for another army coup.

Except if it is lead by a pro Red group of traitors.

Any coup is by definition treacherous, but even worse grossly stupid and bad for Thailand.I have no doubt there will be those on this forum that defend any future coup just as many including yourself defended the last one.

[noel2499rk]

Honestly I think a military ditatorship would be the best for thailand. they are so mired in corruption they can't have an effective democracy.

People here sell thier vote, goverment officials raid the coffers of the people unhindered.

They are on the verge of becoming a failed state and now all the top crooks are poised to take over the country... yeah. a coup would be good at this point!

At least we'd have peace in the streets.

Your logic baffles me. You are distressed by the nation being on the verge of disaster and crooks taking over and then write a coup would be good. Where have you been for the past 50 years or so? Are you clueless to what has occurred in Thailand during that time? Here are some hints from the past few months;

- An expensive bomb detection device was purchased, that has since been shown to be useless. Despite the money spent, no one in the military has taken responsibility.

- An expensive adventure with a blimp was undertaken. Had the due diligence been effected before the undertaking the obvious would have been discovered.

- There are multiple reports of human rights abuses and allegations of killing squads on the loose in the Southern territories under the control of the army. Yet, there is no acknowledgement of these reports nor attempt to onvestigate the allegations.

- Key military leaders are alleged to have holdings that far exceed their pay grades.

If you are not pleased with the civilian crooks, why would you be pleased with the possibility of crooks in uniform taking over? I take you do not care about such concepts of accountability or really care about law and order ouutside of paying lip service as long as you can do what you want, right?

Has it dawned on you that this is precisely what a specific group is trying to accomplish? Push the society to the edge where it welcomes a military dictatorship. It's a tried and true strategy, but you may find that an attempted coup will make the current UDD- government arguments seem like a punchout on the playground. There will not be peace on the streets because the specific units that would be implicated would cause other military units to resist. It may come as a surprise to you, but there are plenty of military personnel that are honest, resent the conduct of the senior officer corps and they love Thailand. There will be resistance this coup and you will be crying for your former homeland to come and rescue you.

Agree geriatrickid, not only does Thai history show that military rule is always unsuccessful but also world history shows the same and we know you don't have to look very far away to see that.

In fact Anupong and his generals must be looking at their friends in Burma with wide green eyes of envy thinking of the money their missing out on having to share it with corrupt politicians, if they follow the Burmese model as Griser wants then they would certainly be filling their pockets with every available Baht in this country.

Agree though Griser you would get your "peace in the streets" because they would be able to lock up anyone they want without cause or complaint, in some ways I hope you get your military dictatorship and I'll be the first to inform on you to the secret police.

Edited April 15, 2010 by noel2499rk

[jayboy]

There is no logical reason for another army coup.

Except if it is lead by a pro Red group of traitors.

Any coup is by definition treacherous, but even worse grossly stupid and bad for Thailand.I have no doubt there will be those on this forum that defend any future coup just as many including yourself defended the last one.