Thailand: Another Coup Would Be A Disaster

[clinique]

Honestly I think a military ditatorship would be the best for thailand. they are so mired in corruption they can't have an effective democracy.

People here sell thier vote, goverment officials raid the coffers of the people unhindered.

They are on the verge of becoming a failed state and now all the top crooks are poised to take over the country... yeah. a coup would be good at this point!

At least we'd have peace in the streets.

Paraguay has also Military Goverment. It's the best for a third world country. Classical example is Irak. Saddam could handle his country, but the US can't. Protest is not the answer. Only peaple who are lazy to work, job or homeless go to protest, as they have nothing to lose, similar like sozialilsm in Eruope. Not only in LOS, even in Europe it's the same. Peaple who doing business or have a good job, don't have time for protests. Protests are not Democracy either. Real democracy is, that have to get a reverendum, a pedition of 100'00 votes to call for new elections. But red the democrats call for democracy, but handle things the anarchy way. What kind of democracy is this?

it isnt a democracy,,thats their point !

[humfurry]

It's interesting to think of Thailand with no Bangkok? Where would Thailand be without Bangkok?

Maybe I've been in front of the computer too long.

Cheers, Hummy

[chadintheusa]

QUOTE (shawndoc @ 2010-04-15 07:55:47) *

Most of the problems we are having now can be laid on the taint (whether real or imagined) of the military coup and its effect on the current constitution and government.

Just keep your problems off my taint

[Neurath]

Imaginary Scenario:

Minor parties decided to withdraw support from the Democrat led government.

Support is put behind PTP to form Government.

Question: would this be considered a victory by the Reds and would it void their call for an election now?

I would answer yes to both questions.

[humfurry]

Regarding a coup: Does anyone here remember the Peter Principal? "In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence."

In Thailand it seems true of governments and political parties as well.

[Chunky1]

The mass rallies are the real problem here. Anytime anyone does not like something they can just gather up the troops and then bring themselves to Bkk. Now the protesters are armed. Any military crackdown will likely result in a state of constant terrorism and retribution.

There is no solution.

[anotherpeter]

Imaginary Scenario:

Minor parties decided to withdraw support from the Democrat led government.

Support is put behind PTP to form Government.

Question: would this be considered a victory by the Reds and would it void their call for an election now?

I would answer yes to both questions.

Ofcourse, they don't care how they come to power.

The fact that they've been complaining about the Dems coming to power that way is irrelevant.

[britmaveric]

^still call for an election even if the minor parties defected,

[OzMick]

The army admits that the soldiers fired after been shot at, I would do that also if I was in the firing line and my mates were shot. The reds will never admit something, they are a bunch of liars. Do not tell me that there were not armed men in black on the red side and in my opinion they fired and threw bombs also. That's what they promised to do anyhow.

If you did this in any western army and depending upon circumstances, the Russian and Chinese army, you would be arrested and sent for court martial. Weapons are not discharged randomly into crowds where there are non combatants. The target must be identified and only that target is to be taken out. Even in Israel, the IDF does not discharge live ammunition into crowds unless there is a clear target. In Afghanistan, neither the Canadian nor the British soldiers will fire into a hostile crowd despite taking fire. If the troops in Afghanistan can demonstrate discipline under far more difficult circumstances, then it is not unreasonable to expect similar conduct under far less difficult conditions as was the case in Bangkok.

Based upon the preliminary autopsy results that have been released, many of the UDD protestors that were killed or injured were shot in the back. This suggests to me that this wasn't a case of the units discharging weapons actually targeting identified hostile targets.

You are assuming that the protesters shot in the back were shot by the army and not agitators. This may or not be true. Either way there were plenty of shot soldiers. We had a saying in the army I was in - better court martialled than buried. If you feel brave enough to stand there with your dick in your hand while someone murders you, you have a mental problem.

[rabo]

As I am from the west, to me having another coup makes no sense

But from the Thai wife they thingk different

Parliment is doomed if it does

Doomed if it does not

Red shirt are doomed if they get what they want, as it is not democracy

Yet doomed if they don't as this is what they want

We are now in a no win situation

Only way we can possibly win is if the silent minority come out and say what they want

Most of her friends say "they not worry us, where we are" "So not our worry"

Sorry I didn't copy your whole post, although it was very interesting. However, I think your wife has also touched on one reason that Thailand gets into many of these situations. Like she said "It's not our problem" so, no need to do anything. I always get "reuang khao", their problem. When it becomes a problem then you get mai pen rai, so just accept it.

Is it surprising that 16 million Bangkokians have been silent and only 30,000 of maybe 20,000,000 eligible rural participants came to protest after massive payments, transportation, and other incentives?

[Neurath]

^still call for an election even if the minor parties defected,

Do you really believe that?

Another scenario:

An election is held under the current military conceived constitution. Many EC inspired red cards.

PTP wins the most seats - not outright, but enough to form a coalition (assuming they still have sufficient funds to purchase them.)

The crazy wing of the PAD and their yellow lickspittles go out again onto the streets, airports and commercial centers screaming violently (as is their wont) for a new election NOW.

Does PTP decide to hold one?

I reckon not.

The problem as it is now is precisely a crisis of legitimacy, one that any immediate election will not solve - quite the reverse in fact.

Calm down, decide on an election anywhere from 3 to 9 months and, crucially, in the meantime get all interested parties together to decide on mutually acceptable ground rules for an election under a reformed constitution - with the specific acknowledgment from all parties that any behavior like that of the Yellows or Reds will not be tolerated (where that lack of toleration is backed by force if need be.)

Would that be satisfactory?

[humfurry]

The army admits that the soldiers fired after been shot at, I would do that also if I was in the firing line and my mates were shot. The reds will never admit something, they are a bunch of liars. Do not tell me that there were not armed men in black on the red side and in my opinion they fired and threw bombs also. That's what they promised to do anyhow.

If you did this in any western army and depending upon circumstances, the Russian and Chinese army, you would be arrested and sent for court martial. Weapons are not discharged randomly into crowds where there are non combatants. The target must be identified and only that target is to be taken out. Even in Israel, the IDF does not discharge live ammunition into crowds unless there is a clear target. In Afghanistan, neither the Canadian nor the British soldiers will fire into a hostile crowd despite taking fire. If the troops in Afghanistan can demonstrate discipline under far more difficult circumstances, then it is not unreasonable to expect similar conduct under far less difficult conditions as was the case in Bangkok.

Based upon the preliminary autopsy results that have been released, many of the UDD protestors that were killed or injured were shot in the back. This suggests to me that this wasn't a case of the units discharging weapons actually targeting identified hostile targets.

You are assuming that the protesters shot in the back were shot by the army and not agitators. This may or not be true. Either way there were plenty of shot soldiers. We had a saying in the army I was in - better court martialled than buried. If you feel brave enough to stand there with your dick in your hand while someone murders you, you have a mental problem.

And you're assuming that Thai conscripts are trained to western standards? And your assuming that Thailand is like Iraq. And your assuming that Russian and Chinese have a western style of democracy with of course a free press and independent police force to investigate and to report all the wrong doings of the government or protesters? I think you assume what ever you like as long as it fits in with your assumptions

Edited April 15, 2010 by humfurry

[TheOldWolf]

^still call for an election even if the minor parties defected,

Do you really believe that?

Another scenario:

An election is held under the current military conceived constitution. Many EC inspired red cards.

PTP wins the most seats - not outright, but enough to form a coalition (assuming they still have sufficient funds to purchase them.)

The crazy wing of the PAD and their yellow lickspittles go out again onto the streets, airports and commercial centers screaming violently (as is their wont) for a new election NOW.

Does PTP decide to hold one?

I reckon not.

The problem as it is now is precisely a crisis of legitimacy, one that any immediate election will not solve - quite the reverse in fact.

Calm down, decide on an election anywhere from 3 to 9 months and, crucially, in the meantime get all interested parties together to decide on mutually acceptable ground rules for an election under a reformed constitution - with the specific acknowledgment from all parties that any behavior like that of the Yellows or Reds will not be tolerated (where that lack of toleration is backed by force if need be.)

Would that be satisfactory?

I agree with you, but impossible. It si to close to what PM suggested in the negotiations. I am sure it the reds have stayed at the table and we could have had a gtime table by know.

By they way, why must we have a to disslove the parliament before an election? Is it better to have a working goverment in the meantime.

And I must add, it is sad that Thailand don´t have an oposition party, only an obstracting.

[anotherpeter]

^still call for an election even if the minor parties defected,

Do you really believe that?

Another scenario:

An election is held under the current military conceived constitution. Many EC inspired red cards.

PTP wins the most seats - not outright, but enough to form a coalition (assuming they still have sufficient funds to purchase them.)

The crazy wing of the PAD and their yellow lickspittles go out again onto the streets, airports and commercial centers screaming violently (as is their wont) for a new election NOW.

Does PTP decide to hold one?

I reckon not.

The problem as it is now is precisely a crisis of legitimacy, one that any immediate election will not solve - quite the reverse in fact.

Calm down, decide on an election anywhere from 3 to 9 months and, crucially, in the meantime get all interested parties together to decide on mutually acceptable ground rules for an election under a reformed constitution - with the specific acknowledgment from all parties that any behavior like that of the Yellows or Reds will not be tolerated (where that lack of toleration is backed by force if need be.)

Would that be satisfactory?

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

[IMA_FARANG]

I understand the point of view....but I'm not sure I completely agree that another coup would necessarily be a "disaster" for Thailand.

I wouldn"t want to see it happen, and I hope that Thailand, and particularly the politicians who seem to think only of themselves and their positions rather than the people they were supposedly elected to represent, can pull back from the brink; but perhaps a coup could give a year or so of a breathing space, a time for both sides to think about what is happening and calm down. Now I not sure if that would necesarily happen, but it would be nice if something like that did.

At the present time we seem to have two sides who won't listen to each other, and don't want to either. Do you really think "Democracy" will work in that situation?

As the sayiing goes, "In order to make an omlette, first you need to break some eggs". Maybe it's time to break some eggs in Thailand?

I truely hope not, but I'm statrting to wonder.

[humfurry]

I understand the point of view....but I'm not sure I completely agree that another coup would necessarily be a "disaster" for Thailand.

I wouldn"t want to see it happen, and I hope that Thailand, and particularly the politicians who seem to think only of themselves and their positions rather than the people they were supposedly elected to represent, can pull back from the brink; but perhaps a coup could give a year or so of a breathing space, a time for both sides to think about what is happening and calm down. Now I not sure if that would necesarily happen, but it would be nice if something like that did.

At the present time we seem to have two sides who won't listen to each other, and don't want to either. Do you really think "Democracy" will work in that situation?

As the sayiing goes, "In order to make an omlette, first you need to break some eggs". Maybe it's time to break some eggs in Thailand?

I truely hope not, but I'm statrting to wonder.

Wasn't that a favorite quote of Joseph Stalin?

[britmaveric]

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

The victor comes the spoils - why should reds negotiate anything? Pretty clear what is needed.....

1. dissolve house

2. current govt resigns

3. new elections in 2-3 mo

[Jingthing]

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

The victor comes the spoils - why should reds negotiate anything? Pretty clear what is needed.....

1. dissolve house

2. current govt resigns

3. new elections in 2-3 mo

Because then the violent thugs win, forcing their own will on the rest of country with terrorist tactics. Would you accept that in the US or UK? They deserve a voice and fair representation. They do not deserve to dictate to the entire country.

Edited April 15, 2010 by Jingthing

[Heng]

Yeah, coup # 21 would be the end of it all.

[humfurry]

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

The victor comes the spoils - why should reds negotiate anything? Pretty clear what is needed.....

1. dissolve house

2. current govt resigns

3. new elections in 2-3 mo

I'm not convinced that a dissolution of the House is what the Reds are really after. They have brought nothing to the negotiating table except a 15 day demand. Their demand and unwillingness to negotiate suggest to me that they are after more than just that.

Edited April 15, 2010 by humfurry

[galvheim]

I think its strange to see, after reading a lot of posts here, how so many people in here are bragging about how siviliced and mature the governements of the west are - and how wuickly they would have responded in these civilized countries. But from my viewpoint the only reason for that is that those socalled democratic and mature countries are really a mafia put in a nice woven system, and a population brainwashed to such and extent that they believe they are truly free. Any government that is not shaking in their pants from thinking what reactions they will get from their actions are truly the countries of which I would not like to live in. Like so many western countries, the government have nothing to fear, mostly because of their dosile and utterly brainwashed grass-root, but also because this brainwashed mob is helping them to keep up their game undefinently. If anyone gathers to form a coup they will quickly be labellled scary names as anarchists, communists, terrorists etc. So really, dear Thai-Visa readers, you are truly the hijacked people. You fail to see that this is a grass-root struggle, and that a government should be as loose as this. In my view all governemnts should respect their inhabitants and fear them and not have total monopoly of power agains the people. If its not even close to an even power-ratio between population and government, you would never have any real power against the so-called elected left/right-paradigm. This have shown itself to be a big hoax in most democracies, and its just laughable how people are believing that they have any real choise whatsoever when they are standing in the election booth.

I am proud to see people going to the streets and fighting and being so powerful that the government is going to last-resort practices trying to retain some resemblance of control. This is how a real democracy where set out to work, if you look at the original constitution of USA. It was clearly stated that the people should be allowed to own guns so that they in such times of hijacking or unconstitutional government take-overs should be willing to fight themselves back to the origianl law of the states - thus being free once again. With regards to USA, and all other western countries, we have long ago been hijacked by incrementalism and slowly lost all power from the people.

Go fight and reinstitute law and order to this country. You will learn from this process, and I hope this will show other people in the world that governments are really weak when it comes to a real grass-root rebellion.

[chadintheusa]

Imaginary Scenario:

Minor parties decided to withdraw support from the Democrat led government.

Support is put behind PTP to form Government.

Question: would this be considered a victory by the Reds and would it void their call for an election now?

I would answer yes to both questions.

Ofcourse, they don't care how they come to power.

The fact that they've been complaining about the Dems coming to power that way is irrelevant.

But according to their own rhetoric in that case the PTP government would be illegal and unelected, that's if the people posting here can apply same standards as they are now.

[commons]

If the Red Shirts had any concrete proposals for substantive reform or improvement, I would probably be a UDD Supporter. But - all I see is a Zimbabwe-like movement to "tear down the successful white farmers" - mixed with truckloads of cheering, red-clad militia that remind me of nothing other than the Khmer Rouge entering Phnom Penh in April 1975.

As would I and I assume the majority of foreign anti-reds. I would also add they would need to drop their hard core radical factions and drop their use of violence and intimidation, drop their support of Thaksin, and drop their piggish refusal to go to peace talks.

These are the UDD's six principles

1) Achieving the goal of establishing a genuine democracy that has the King as our Head of State, with political power belonging exclusively to the people. We reject any attempt, past or future, at using the monarchy to silence dissent or advance a particular agenda.

2) Dissolving the 2007 Constitution and restoring the 1997 Constitution, which may then be amended through a transparent, consultative and democratic process.

3) Bringing Thais together in an effort to solve our political and socio-economic problems, recognizing that such efforts must stem from the power of the people.

4) Implementing the rule of law, due process and a system of equal justice for all, free of any obstructions or double-standards.

5) Uniting all Thais who love democracy, equality, and equal justice within all facets of society, in an effort to deconstruct and move beyond the Amartyatippatai (Aristocracy) system.

6) Using exclusively non-violent means to achieve these objectives.

I like 5 myself ending the Amartyatippatai system essentiall for the developement of Thailand.

dear noel2449rk,

thanks for statement, i've read it before: _this_ is "high-minded" "poetry".

it says _nothing_ about any policy proposals others & me have asked for since a long time. _that alone_, that not one single "red shirt supporter, of whatever wing of fraction, could provide at least a rudimentary overall policy-outline speaks for itself.

otoh, i do see real policies enacted by Abhisit government - when they've time to do their job instead of being faced with... "challenges".

[chadintheusa]

I am proud to see people going to the streets and fighting and being so powerful that the government is going to last-resort practices trying to retain some resemblance of control. This is how a real democracy where set out to work, if you look at the original constitution of USA. It was clearly stated that the people should be allowed to own guns so that they in such times of hijacking or unconstitutional government take-overs should be willing to fight themselves back to the origianl law of the states - thus being free once again. With regards to USA, and all other western countries, we have long ago been hijacked by incrementalism and slowly lost all power from the people.

Go fight and reinstitute law and order to this country. You will learn from this process, and I hope this will show other people in the world that governments are really weak when it comes to a real grass-root rebellion.

So the ends justify the means. By creating anarchy we can have law and order.

[humfurry]

I think its strange to see, after reading a lot of posts here, how so many people in here are bragging about how siviliced and mature the governements of the west are - and how wuickly they would have responded in these civilized countries. But from my viewpoint the only reason for that is that those socalled democratic and mature countries are really a mafia put in a nice woven system, and a population brainwashed to such and extent that they believe they are truly free. Any government that is not shaking in their pants from thinking what reactions they will get from their actions are truly the countries of which I would not like to live in. Like so many western countries, the government have nothing to fear, mostly because of their dosile and utterly brainwashed grass-root, but also because this brainwashed mob is helping them to keep up their game undefinently. If anyone gathers to form a coup they will quickly be labellled scary names as anarchists, communists, terrorists etc. So really, dear Thai-Visa readers, you are truly the hijacked people. You fail to see that this is a grass-root struggle, and that a government should be as loose as this. In my view all governemnts should respect their inhabitants and fear them and not have total monopoly of power agains the people. If its not even close to an even power-ratio between population and government, you would never have any real power against the so-called elected left/right-paradigm. This have shown itself to be a big hoax in most democracies, and its just laughable how people are believing that they have any real choise whatsoever when they are standing in the election booth.

I am proud to see people going to the streets and fighting and being so powerful that the government is going to last-resort practices trying to retain some resemblance of control. This is how a real democracy where set out to work, if you look at the original constitution of USA. It was clearly stated that the people should be allowed to own guns so that they in such times of hijacking or unconstitutional government take-overs should be willing to fight themselves back to the origianl law of the states - thus being free once again. With regards to USA, and all other western countries, we have long ago been hijacked by incrementalism and slowly lost all power from the people.

Go fight and reinstitute law and order to this country. You will learn from this process, and I hope this will show other people in the world that governments are really weak when it comes to a real grass-root rebellion.

[/quote}

You do mean Power to the Well Paid Brainwashed Peasants? Gee... Wow... after this um... social revolution of the "people" just how will wealth be redistributed. You don't have the slightest clue about how things work in Thailand.

(muted flaming comment)

[animatic]

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

The victor comes the spoils - why should reds negotiate anything? Pretty clear what is needed.....

1. dissolve house

2. current govt resigns

3. new elections in 2-3 mo

Because then the violent thugs win, forcing their own will on the rest of country with terrorist tactics. Would you accept that in the US or UK? They deserve a voice and fair representation. They do not deserve to dictate to the entire country.

Precisely.

[commons]

That would be completely satisfactory to any sane person ... but not Thaksin's puppets.

The victor comes the spoils - why should reds negotiate anything? Pretty clear what is needed.....

1. dissolve house

2. current govt resigns

3. new elections in 2-3 mo

Because then the violent thugs win, forcing their own will on the rest of country with terrorist tactics. Would you accept that in the US or UK? They deserve a voice and fair representation. They do not deserve to dictate to the entire country.

Precisely.

let me add my BHT0,02:

i'm not sure if any of "red shirt _equals_ democracy" will understand what i'll try to say:

"democracy" is _not_ "tyranny of majority". contrary, it's about engagement of civic society, divergent opinions. do i see or hear _any_ bit of intent from UDD to do so?

[humfurry]

let me add my BHT0,02:

i'm not sure if any of "red shirt _equals_ democracy" will understand what i'll try to say:

"democracy" is _not_ "tyranny of majority". contrary, it's about engagement of civic society, divergent opinions. do i see or hear _any_ bit of intent from UDD to do so?

Well it certainly isn't a tyranny of the minority either.

Cheers, Hummy

[Jerrytheyoung]

^still call for an election even if the minor parties defected,

Do you really believe that?

Another scenario:

An election is held under the current military conceived constitution. Many EC inspired red cards.

PTP wins the most seats - not outright, but enough to form a coalition (assuming they still have sufficient funds to purchase them.)

The crazy wing of the PAD and their yellow lickspittles go out again onto the streets, airports and commercial centers screaming violently (as is their wont) for a new election NOW.

Does PTP decide to hold one?

I reckon not.

The problem as it is now is precisely a crisis of legitimacy, one that any immediate election will not solve - quite the reverse in fact.

Calm down, decide on an election anywhere from 3 to 9 months and, crucially, in the meantime get all interested parties together to decide on mutually acceptable ground rules for an election under a reformed constitution - with the specific acknowledgment from all parties that any behavior like that of the Yellows or Reds will not be tolerated (where that lack of toleration is backed by force if need be.)

Would that be satisfactory?

Only a "neutral" actor can introduce this: reds, democrats, Army are discarded. It is the main issue. Abhisit has to resign and a "neutral" personnality has to take over: this is an impossible scenario in the current atmosphere, I am afraid.

Edited April 15, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[ozzieman05]

Only army can clean the land? well not this time since there seems to be major fractures within and it looks like they will be staying out of this one.

The posting was my Thai wifes belief in the only way out of this mess

It was never meant to be what will happen

Look at the facts

Even we Farang can not agree and we feel better educated than Thais

If this is the case what chance do the working class Thai's have