The Longer The Red-Shirts Rally, The Higher The Damage

[webfact]

Special Report: The longer the rally, the higher the damage

BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy.

After the UDD protestors vacated their former rally site at Phan Fa Bridge and move to Ratchaprasong intersection which is a major business area of Bangkok, several luxury malls located around there have to close down temporarily for security concern. The development of the situation will apparently result in a significant financial loss for Thai businesses. In such circumstance, many business operators have walked out with complaints and asked the government to speedily seek an end to the prolonged demonstration.

Recently, the UDD protestors announced to stage their biggest rally at Silom area, one of the most important working and trading areas of Bangkok on 20 April in order to press for House dissolution. The UDD’s announcement caused high anxiety among the public while the entrepreneurs around the area have to close the businesses temporarily for the safety of staff and customers.

Back at Ratchaprasong intersection, it could be said that more than 2,000 business operators around the rally site including major luxury malls such as Central World, Siam Paragon, Platinum, Siam Discovery and 1,000 retail business owners are facing with a significant financial loss of about 20 million THB per day. More, hotel businesses are receiving an adverse effect with the decreasing of tourists’ number and revenues due to the reduction of hotel occupancy. Embassies of several foreign countries had issued travel warnings telling their citizens to avoid travelling to Thailand because of the uncertainty of the current political upheaval.

Apart from the economic damage made to the business sector, the ongoing rally has also posed threats to the tourism sector. The Thai-Chinese tourism association reported that Chinese tourists have expressed much concern over the current situation in Thailand. Many of them decided to delay trips to Thailand. In March 2010, only 80,000 Chinese tourists visited Thailand, or 20,000 lower than the target of 100,000. It is expected that Thailand would face a drop of about 40,000-50,000 Chinese tourists during April-May. This could cause the estimated number of Chinese visitors this year to miss the target of 1.2 million or 100,000 people per month.

According to a forecast by Dr Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), if the rally was prolonged into the second quarter of this year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow only by 4.3% this year, a decrease of 0.2% from the estimate of 4.5% or a loss of about 30 billion THB. If the mass protest was still dragged into the third quarter, the GDP growth could reduce 0.5% to end up at 4% annually. And if the protest was prolonged into the fourth quarter with the occurrence of violence such as airport closure, house dissolution, and a halt in the disbursement of the fiscal 2011 budget, the GDP was likely to grow only by 2.7%, a decrease of 1.8% from the estimate of 4.5%. Therefore, it can be said that the longer the rally, the higher the damage.

Dr Ekniti continued to say that if the political standoff in Bangkok intensifies, there are three main negative issues Thailand will face unavoidably. Firstly, the foreign investors might slow down their investment decision and those who had settled production bases in Thailand might decide to avoid the risk by shifting their bases to other countries. Secondly, the public consumption and spending rates are likely to be hugely decreased and it would bring negative effects to trading businesses in Bangkok and the vicinities that have accounted for 43.8% of the country’s GDP. Lastly, Thailand will face with a hard-time situation to regain tourism confidence from foreign tourists.

In all, if the rally is prolonged, all sectors of Thailand will receive the adverse effects irresistibly. Therefore, to quickly find out an exit for the political impasse, all sides might have to take one step back and should turn to listen to reasons of each other in order to move the country forward.

-- NNT 2010-04-21

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Redsunset]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

[chantorn]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

Agreed. It is a known fact (like the shut down of airports by PAD). It is not news.

[givenall]

Everyone should hold the Red Shirt organizers responsible for the losses. I think it would be a good class action Lawsuit for all the business adversely affected by their illegal action of closing the area

[LuckyLew]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

Where you born that way ... or did Thaksins brainwashing cause it?

[hammered]

Seems to state the glaringly obvious. The real shame is all the daily labour who are losing money they cant afford to lose. It is always the poor who suffer.

[Redsunset]

Nero fiddles while Rome burns... I'm getting the hel_l out of here.... the sh*t is about to hit the fan...

[grandpops]

Nero fiddles while Rome burns... I'm getting the hel_l out of here.... the sh*t is about to hit the fan...

Good luck on your travels.

Please keep in touch and let us know where in the world is half as good a place to live in as Thailand.

Only the businesses and the elites affected here. People still great, weather, beaches. All's well with the world and this is just a forum and the policits will work out, or we will have a coup.

It'll be ok in the long run.

[AGareth2]

so what is the govt going to do?

[bikerlou47]

I am sure you are not serious!

No one could be that stupid!

Everyone should hold the Red Shirt organizers responsible for the losses. I think it would be a good class action Lawsuit for all the business adversely affected by their illegal action of closing the area

[anotherpeter]

Nero fiddles while Rome burns... I'm getting the hel_l out of here.... the sh*t is about to hit the fan...

Good luck on your travels.

Please keep in touch and let us know where in the world is half as good a place to live in as Thailand.

Only the businesses and the elites affected here. People still great, weather, beaches. All's well with the world and this is just a forum and the policits will work out, or we will have a coup.

It'll be ok in the long run.

"Only the businesses and the elites affected here."

You forgot about all the employees of the businesses that are now out of work.

Who owns the thousands of small businesses that are being affected by the protests? The hundreds of street vendors that can't make their money off tourists? The tourist businesses and businesses supporting them all over Thailand, and all of their employees? The foreign business investment that is being delayed or moved elsewhere, that affects current and future employment of Thais?

These protests are effecting more than the big shopping centres and hotels in the Ratchaprasong area.

[grandpops]

so what is the govt going to do?

You don't seem to have grasped yet that the Government is not running the Country.

The powers behind the scene have seen Abhisit as the blancmange he is and have put Thuagsabum and Anupong in charge in everything but name only.

They are doing as much as they can as the Army (who have been around longer than either of these two factions) are raising above it as much as they can and not engaging in a killing spree. As much a fact as anything else is that many of the Army conscripts are from the North and red at heart. And forget your fantasy about Southern Troops doing it. There are not many of them, they are as divided along ethnic and religious lines and as unreliable. Look at the map of Thailand and see how the population are spread accross the country. Notice how much of the Country is NORTH of Bangkok and how little is south.. AND how the south is divided and in the middle or a major armed struggle.

You have to be sure when you give the order to fire that the firing takes place in the direction you want!! I'ts just as easy for rank and file troops to put a bullet in a top brass leader as it is in a protester. Few of your fellow Isaan friends shot up and the watermelon troops might have a touch of the red mist descending.

We can view hundreds of posts on here about Thai's when they get angry. They don't stop, listen to reason or back down. This is why the sane voices (including the Army) are calling for the politicians to sort it out.

If the Army act, it will be a coup and they will all be sent to bed with no supper to await the date of the next attempt at democracy. Can't see the Army propping this Elite up for much longer. If they rescue them this time, things will change.

ANOTHERPETER.

You don't seem to realise that workers here are paid so little as to be almost irrelevant. The poor are used to it and life goes on outside Bangkok. It's just a few hi-so areas affected. Sorry, mate, but Bangkok is but a part of a larger Country called Thailand.

Edited April 21, 2010 by grandpops

[Publicus]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

This is a legitimate news story that provides details, specifics, quotes affected persons - it meets all the criteria of a legit news piece, i.e., it is timely, immediate, relevant, proximate, has context, has significance, includes affected persons, persons who are observers, presents a larger picture, presents specific real impacts.....I could go on. Whatever you and certain others might be on about would be something else entirely.

[eggomaniac]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

This is a legitimate news story that provides details, specifics, quotes affected persons - it meets all the criteria of a legit news piece, i.e., it is timely, immediate, relevant, proximate, has context, has significance, includes affected persons, persons who are observers, presents a larger picture, presents specific real impacts.....I could go on. Whatever you and certain others might be on about would be something else entirely.

What is your 'expert' opinion of the headline, then. I think most of the Posters were pointing to lame wording, not of the body of the article.

"Adding up the Costs of Prolonged Demonstrattions", for example would have have not insulted the intelligent ear.

Is it okay to ask if the OP's first language is English? There have been several examples of whence the banner did not quite synch with the story.

Maybe the yellow and red dons will notice they destroying the pig trough they are both fighting to get their snouts in. Time for a good old fashioned gang boss truce maybe?

Talks between the reds and yellows, about MY PLAN 'might' work, where talks between the reds and government never will.

Edited April 21, 2010 by eggomaniac

[Tompa]

I am sure you are not serious!

No one could be that stupid!

Everyone should hold the Red Shirt organizers responsible for the losses. I think it would be a good class action Lawsuit for all the business adversely affected by their illegal action of closing the area

What’s so stupid about that! These businesses have lost hundreds of millions of Baht due to the Red Shirt protests and they should be held accountable for that.

[Pib]

But the protests sure don't seem to be hurting the baht as the baht seems to strengthen every day. Or, is the baht strength due to western currencies being debt ridden. Regardless a strong baht helps the "import" side of the Thai ecomony.

[Goooner]

You don't seem to realise that workers here are paid so little as to be almost irrelevant. The poor are used to it and life goes on outside Bangkok. It's just a few hi-so areas affected. Sorry, mate, but Bangkok is but a part of a larger Country called Thailand.

So you are saying that because a shop worker (or any other low paid worker) receives only a few hundred baht a day in wages that its ok for them to suffer during this time, where its very possible they will loose a months wages and possibly loose their job entirely as the company they work for goes under.

So with that attitude, that puts you firmly in the 'Elite' camp - Screw the serfs, they are irrelevant cos they are paid a pittance.

[anotherpeter]

<snip>

You don't seem to realise that workers here are paid so little as to be almost irrelevant. The poor are used to it and life goes on outside Bangkok. It's just a few hi-so areas affected. Sorry, mate, but Bangkok is but a part of a larger Country called Thailand.

The point is, they were being paid, and now they are not. Thousands of small business owners in the area are being affected, not just the big business and hotel owners. Probably a hundred thousand people are employed in the area, and many of these are not being paid. There mey be many people that don't get paid much, but that is all they get paid.

Are you suggesting that the drop in tourism and investment is only affecting Ratchaprasong?

[BKjohn]

Considering the first stickers turning up stating "Thaksin for president" it seems the reds are jumping the gun a bit here.

of course the red shirts deny posting those stickers but considering that Thaksin is financing their mob and the average IQ of those, as Thai's call them "gnoo", it will be very difficult for anyone to convince themselves and others that those are not placed by the red mob. But wait for it, those red here will of course try anyway

68,000 people can't go to work because of 15,000 rioters and millions of Bangkok residents are affected by those riots the country as a whole is suffering - its high time the government / army gets moving and get rid of those imbeciles.

One man is holding a whole country hostage because he got caught in the act and now wants his money back and his power. When some here say the "elitist" suffer, they are not really in the picture.

Thailand has a fast growing middle class developing by hard working people who take risks in business and those are the people who suffer most from the red shirt actions. Tourism is the backbone of this country's income and that is going to affected the most.

Edited April 21, 2010 by BKjohn

[rubik101]

It's not just the malls and businesses in the downtown area that are affected, nor the low paid shop workers. For two weeks now I was meant to be teaching some Indian students how to fly based at the old BKK airport. Due to a travel advisory issued by the Indian Gov't, they will not be travelling to Thailand until they get the all clear. Net result, I sit at home and don't get paid, so all of you who think that it affects only the obvious few, think again.

[wasabi]

I too have decided to postpone my trip to Thailand due to not wanting to be inconvenienced by the protesters. I love Thailand and don't have a place I can go that will fulfill the Thai fix but I do have other wonderful tropical resorts my wife and I can go to in the mean time.When I lived in Thailand things were different and time was on my side but now working for a Farang corp in Farangland vacation time is limited and precious and I don't want to risk it caught in traffic jams on sukhumwit. I know I am not alone in my thinking too, Thailand really needs to find a solution to this problem if they hope to retain any of the progress they've made the last decade.

[BKjohn]

April, May and June is the time when a lot of people in Europe and the US plan their winter vacation since one gets great deals for early booking - do you think they might really be persuaded to include Thailand in their selection, as things are ?

There are nice beaches in Vietnam and Cambodia, Malaysia and many other places where there are poor people as well, where the average income is far less than in Thailand and where people are happy to see their economy grow and their life's improving slowly - they are now really pleased with those red shirts for screwing up Thailand's tourism and forcing people to look for different destinations.

[bangkoklight]

Congratulations to the NBT! There must be some real “smart party” people working at that one-sided news agency. Why can't they report on the fact that the class divide in Thailand will ultimately leave the country behind its regional neighbours, who are getting their act together with social reform, social welfare programmes, and infrastructure projects.

In the short-term the economy will suffer, yes. So a few hotels are being disrupted. I think people need to look at the bigger picture; Thailand as a whole with the majority of its people working in the agricultural sector - the heart of the economy.

And all social revolutions cause disruption to the economy (and to society), like all storms cause damage to the environment. But in the long-term, as ecologists know, storms are part of the life creating cycle, producing greater biodiversity and opportunities for new species to thrive. In the case of a social revolution, an opportunity for the lower classes to climb out the poverty trap and show their true potential - for the benefit of the whole. This is how the developed nations of the world came about.

[anotherpeter]

Congratulations to the NBT! There must be some real "smart party" people working at that one-sided news agency. Why can't they report on the fact that the class divide in Thailand will ultimately leave the country behind its regional neighbours, who are getting their act together with social reform, social welfare programmes, and infrastructure projects.

In the short-term the economy will suffer, yes. So a few hotels are being disrupted. I think people need to look at the bigger picture; Thailand as a whole with the majority of its people working in the agricultural sector - the heart of the economy.

And all social revolutions cause disruption to the economy (and to society), like all storms cause damage to the environment. But in the long-term, as ecologists know, storms are part of the life creating cycle, producing greater biodiversity and opportunities for new species to thrive. In the case of a social revolution, an opportunity for the lower classes to climb out the poverty trap and show their true potential - for the benefit of the whole. This is how the developed nations of the world came about.

And if these protests were really about the class divide, then that might be reported on.

[bangkoklight]

And if these protests were really about the class divide, then that might be reported on.

With all of the previous comments on the uselessness (and one-sidedness) of the NBT, do you think they would dare report on such a thing? Do you think they're free?

[FreedomDude]

Congratulations to the NBT! There must be some real "smart party" people working at that one-sided news agency. Why can't they report on the fact that the class divide in Thailand will ultimately leave the country behind its regional neighbours, who are getting their act together with social reform, social welfare programmes, and infrastructure projects.

In the short-term the economy will suffer, yes. So a few hotels are being disrupted. I think people need to look at the bigger picture; Thailand as a whole with the majority of its people working in the agricultural sector - the heart of the economy.

And all social revolutions cause disruption to the economy (and to society), like all storms cause damage to the environment. But in the long-term, as ecologists know, storms are part of the life creating cycle, producing greater biodiversity and opportunities for new species to thrive. In the case of a social revolution, an opportunity for the lower classes to climb out the poverty trap and show their true potential - for the benefit of the whole. This is how the developed nations of the world came about.

And if these protests were really about the class divide, then that might be reported on.

And they are being reported on in the international media.... of course not by any Thai sources. And no, I can't link or mention ANY of them, because they also talk about the topic we can't talk about.

Nice comments, bangkoklight. Thanks for sharing them.

On second thought, here is a nice postable link from the New York Times

"Whiff of Rebellion Spreads in Thai Hinterland"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/world/asia/20reds.html

Edited April 21, 2010 by FreedomDude

[BKjohn]

Congratulations to the NBT! There must be some real "smart party" people working at that one-sided news agency. Why can't they report on the fact that the class divide in Thailand will ultimately leave the country behind its regional neighbours, who are getting their act together with social reform, social welfare programmes, and infrastructure projects.

In the short-term the economy will suffer, yes. So a few hotels are being disrupted. I think people need to look at the bigger picture; Thailand as a whole with the majority of its people working in the agricultural sector - the heart of the economy.

And all social revolutions cause disruption to the economy (and to society), like all storms cause damage to the environment. But in the long-term, as ecologists know, storms are part of the life creating cycle, producing greater biodiversity and opportunities for new species to thrive. In the case of a social revolution, an opportunity for the lower classes to climb out the poverty trap and show their true potential - for the benefit of the whole. This is how the developed nations of the world came about.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What revolution ???

This is not a revolution, but a criminal mob that is rioting in Bangkok. This is nothing but "lazy bumb's of Isaan unite" and lets have "papa Thaksin for president because he is going to give us money again so we can buy more lau kao"

The stickers are up already, which you will of course say were placed by the government .....

A revolution, if you look back in history has in virtually all cases emerged from the student classes - the governments of countries which fell to revolutions had usually a very bad record of treating their people and any attempt at voicing a problem in public was severely dealt with. Demonstrations, no matter how peaceful were immediately dispersed and leaders arrested and executed - see Pinochet in Chile or the French revolution.

Those Isaanies have been rioting for months now and had they really been peaceful and not been aggressive with the aim to cause damage, nothing would happen to them. They are neither demonstrators not are they revolutionaries they do deserve neither name but they are a criminal bunch of rioters on the payroll of Thaksin cocooned in a protective mantel of Isaan's dumbest who simply like the cash

[Redsunset]

Nero fiddles while Rome burns... I'm getting the hel_l out of here.... the sh*t is about to hit the fan...

Good luck on your travels.

Please keep in touch and let us know where in the world is half as good a place to live in as Thailand.

Only the businesses and the elites affected here. People still great, weather, beaches. All's well with the world and this is just a forum and the policits will work out, or we will have a coup.

It'll be ok in the long run.

Only the businesses and elite affected? Really? Who do you think work for these businesses? And who do you think sell things to these businesses, including those who work there? I wonder if any employees of these businesses buy food from vendors on the street?

"All's well with the world? the politics will work out?" You sound like my mother telling me that everything will be okay even though I got a "C" grade on an exam!

Sir, what planet are you living on? Nirvana? When you wake up from your stupor, do let us know!

[anotherpeter]

Congratulations to the NBT! There must be some real "smart party" people working at that one-sided news agency. Why can't they report on the fact that the class divide in Thailand will ultimately leave the country behind its regional neighbours, who are getting their act together with social reform, social welfare programmes, and infrastructure projects.

In the short-term the economy will suffer, yes. So a few hotels are being disrupted. I think people need to look at the bigger picture; Thailand as a whole with the majority of its people working in the agricultural sector - the heart of the economy.

And all social revolutions cause disruption to the economy (and to society), like all storms cause damage to the environment. But in the long-term, as ecologists know, storms are part of the life creating cycle, producing greater biodiversity and opportunities for new species to thrive. In the case of a social revolution, an opportunity for the lower classes to climb out the poverty trap and show their true potential - for the benefit of the whole. This is how the developed nations of the world came about.

And if these protests were really about the class divide, then that might be reported on.

And they are being reported on in the international media.... of course not by any Thai sources. And no, I can't link or mention ANY of them, because they also talk about the topic we can't talk about.

Nice comments, bangkoklight. Thanks for sharing them.

The articles in the international media (that we can't talk about) talk more about the difference between the elites, not the differences between the classes.

edit: (missed your edit) good article. doesn't change my opinion about what the protests are about.

Edited April 21, 2010 by anotherpeter

[Redsunset]

"BANGKOK: -- It goes without saying that the current prolonged rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors has already dampened the Thai economy..."

If it goes without saying that the rally hurts the economy, then why write a huge blurb on the subject? This is indeed obvious already and not news.

This is a legitimate news story that provides details, specifics, quotes affected persons - it meets all the criteria of a legit news piece, i.e., it is timely, immediate, relevant, proximate, has context, has significance, includes affected persons, persons who are observers, presents a larger picture, presents specific real impacts.....I could go on. Whatever you and certain others might be on about would be something else entirely.

It is not insightful and it is just providing documention to an observation that even an ignorant person could make.

It doesn't add any value whatsoever to provide brilliant facts to make a point that everyone agrees with... that is like saying "did you know water boils when you heat it," then supporting it with pages of factual scientific evidence... yes, water boils we all know that.... SO WHAT?????

That is our point...tell us something we do not know, or argue a controversial point.... writing for news articles is not the same as writing up your science project in 6th grade.