Worsening Crisis Pushes Thailand Towards Anarchy

[Jerrytheyoung]

taking into account the situation and trying to avoid the worse, Anand is certanly the man of the situation for preparing Elections. The Election Rules have failed has they conduct to conflicts. Mangling after elections is unfair, the Coalition should be known before and in case the coalition explodes, again election ....this is democracy

Abhisit as PM is the result of a political mangling which is not respecting the will of the voters (even if his Election is Legal, it lacks Legitimacy).

How is the "political mangling" that brought Abhisit to power different to that which brought Samak or Somchai to power?

The same ...so it has to end: no more Yellow Shirts occupying Airport, No more Red Shirts...Fair elections: people must know for whom they are voting and what they will do after, with whom they will be allied.

The serie of mangling has to be stopped.

[jdinasia]

I don't disagree at least in principle. The country is in a deep and dangerous quagmire. Do you believe the red shirt leaders would accept a unity government lasting for 6 months to a year? PTP? Democrats? How about the smaller parties? PAD? Military? Higher institutions? There are so many players with vested interests here and a unity government under someone like Anand would only work if all parties agree.

I do think that there are responsible People in Thailand and that if they have the opportunity they may get out from the current mess.

To answer to your questions, I have met general Chavalit, (2 or 3 years ago) and for me he is a very responsible man, (even if like everybody he has made some errors in the past). I do believe as representative of the Red Shirts, he can successfully participate to a discussion and arrives to a positive solution. I do believe that other Red Shirt leaders will follow him. Jakunaporn seems to be a great leader, not too much excited, I do think he can also play a role: but this is my personal opinion: I am not in touch with those people.

ANAND seems to be the man of the situation.

To put ANAND in position, there are probably several possibilities. I see one: ANUPONG taking over and installing ANAND for few months until elections are organised. This has also the advantage to re-unite Army which is on the verge of dismemberment.

So you are ...

1) Coming out in favor of a Coup?

2) Stating Anand should be PM even though he has not been elected by anyone and has said that House Dissolution is NOT the answer?

taking into account the situation and trying to avoid the worse, Anand is certanly the man of the situation for preparing Elections. The Election Rules have failed as they conduct to conflicts. Mangling after elections is unfair, the Coalition should be known before and in case the coalition explodes, again election ....this is democracy

Abhisit as PM is the result of a political mangling which is not respecting the will of the voters (even if his Election is Legal, it lacks Legitimacy).

Sorry --- but you Failed to answer question 1

Are you, in fact, proposing a Coup?

And your conclusions for the rest of the post fly in the face of reality. The current government is both Legal and Legitimate. If you doubt that please feel free to contact your government (and that of every other country in the world).

Your claim to what democracy is, is equally flawed. There was a COALITION government under PPP (samak and Somchai) and there is a coalition government now. The smaller parties that joined with the PPP to create the Samak and Somchai governments had promised not to do so (what you call political mangling -- but in reality just an issue between those parties and their voters). The Dems didn't cry when Samak was elected by parliament, instead they do what you do in a Democracy and set up (a single party) opposition. When PPP fell ___ due to PROVEN electoral fraud ___ a new coalition was formed.

Remember --- PPP could have called for new elections even the day before they were dissolved --- they didn't.

Finally --- You bring Anand into this again --- AFTER Anand has stated that house dissolution and new elections are not the answer.

[mazeltov]

Just to add, on the political management front, it should be recalled that at least one of the coalition parties which joined with Samak had openly campaigned on a platform that they would not enter into such a coalition.

One could argue even more strongly that their voters were roundly ignored, since maybe they would not have voted for them if they know they would subsequently join forces.

Regards

They had an easy excuse. Bullied by the Junta.

[A_Traveller]

^ Oblate spheroids.

Regards

Edited April 29, 2010 by A_Traveller

[jdinasia]

Just to add, on the political management front, it should be recalled that at least one of the coalition parties which joined with Samak had openly campaigned on a platform that they would not enter into such a coalition.

One could argue even more strongly that their voters were roundly ignored, since maybe they would not have voted for them if they know they would subsequently join forces.

Regards

They had an easy excuse. Bullied by the Junta.

Mazeltov is now claiming that the "junta" put PPP into power by bullying the smaller parties into joining a PPP coalition?

Not even the Dems ever suggested something that ludicrous! (In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

edit --- corrected the Freudian slip I made when typing M's name .....

Edited April 29, 2010 by jdinasia

[Jerrytheyoung]

Sorry --- but you Failed to answer question 1

Are you, in fact, proposing a Coup?

And your conclusions for the rest of the post fly in the face of reality. The current government is both Legal and Legitimate. If you doubt that please feel free to contact your government (and that of every other country in the world).

Your claim to what democracy is, is equally flawed. There was a COALITION government under PPP (samak and Somchai) and there is a coalition government now. The smaller parties that joined with the PPP to create the Samak and Somchai governments had promised not to do so (what you call political mangling -- but in reality just an issue between those parties and their voters). The Dems didn't cry when Samak was elected by parliament, instead they do what you do in a Democracy and set up (a single party) opposition. When PPP fell ___ due to PROVEN electoral fraud ___ a new coalition was formed.

Remember --- PPP could have called for new elections even the day before they were dissolved --- they didn't.

Finally --- You bring Anand into this again --- AFTER Anand has stated that house dissolution and new elections are not the answer.

Is the Civil War a better solution? This is were Abhisit and Suthep are driving us....We are in an Emergency situation for avoiding the worse. I expect that at a Higher level than Abhisit there are some brain storming and there will be some contacts between all parties and they will arrive to a common ground. Situation is evolving and what has been said several days ago can be revised. Anand is a clever man (And a Stateman... at the difference of your idol)

Edited April 29, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[A_Traveller]

One does have to note though that Anand has not been elected to anything, ever. In many ways his administrations were viewed as the lesser of x number of evils and in both cases he was imposed. He has talents and skills, though one could argue that he is also a man of yesterday not tomorrow. Indeed he himself has made it clear he does not view himself in such a role [which would be unconstitutional (under both '97 and 06)].

Regards

typo

Edited April 29, 2010 by A_Traveller

[draftvader]

Airport Rail Link service postponed due to ongoing rally

BANGKOK (NNT) -- The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) has indefinitely postponed the opening date of its airport rail link service for safety reasons due to the ongoing protest.

Transport Minister Sopon Zarum stated that the postponement of the airport rail link service which was earlier scheduled to open on 30 April came after the prolonged political conflict and the recent BTS seizure case of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors.

The indefinite postponement was made to ensure passenger safety.

Mr Sopon affirmed that the Airport Rail Link service will be opened for commercial purpose on July, as scheduled.

Interested rail operators who want to join the test run service can still report themselves with the required documents to the SRT. During this time, the ministry would frequently conduct test runs to build confidence among the commuters before the official service started, Mr Sopon added.

That explains everything. It would be FAR too embarrassing to admit that it doesn't work. Long, drawn out, political protests as a cover for sloppy project time-scales and massive financial haemorrhaging? As good as any other conspiracy theory out there....

[jdinasia]

Sorry --- but you Failed to answer question 1

Are you, in fact, proposing a Coup?

And your conclusions for the rest of the post fly in the face of reality. The current government is both Legal and Legitimate. If you doubt that please feel free to contact your government (and that of every other country in the world).

Your claim to what democracy is, is equally flawed. There was a COALITION government under PPP (samak and Somchai) and there is a coalition government now. The smaller parties that joined with the PPP to create the Samak and Somchai governments had promised not to do so (what you call political mangling -- but in reality just an issue between those parties and their voters). The Dems didn't cry when Samak was elected by parliament, instead they do what you do in a Democracy and set up (a single party) opposition. When PPP fell ___ due to PROVEN electoral fraud ___ a new coalition was formed.

Remember --- PPP could have called for new elections even the day before they were dissolved --- they didn't.

Finally --- You bring Anand into this again --- AFTER Anand has stated that house dissolution and new elections are not the answer.

Is the Civil War a better solution? This is were Abhisit and Suthep are driving us....We are in an Emergency situation for avoiding the worse. I expect that at a Higher level than Abhisit there are some brain storming and there will be some contacts between all parties and they will arrive to a common ground. Situation is evolving and what has been said several days ago can be revised. Anand is a clever man (And a Stateman... at the difference of your idol)

OK .. I guess you won't actually say it but you are IN FACT proposing a Coup.

Strange that you don't blame the reds with their constant war cries (calls for violence from the stage) and their use of Sae Daeng's Ronin etc ....

Abhisit is the legal and legitimate PM of Thailand. Anand has said that dissolving parliament is NOT the answer.

The answer can be quite simple --- The violent red shirts leave Bangkok. They return to wherever their homes are. They get the PTP MP's to be active in Charter Reform (that you say is needed). The Dems do what they have offered to do and dissolve parliament 1 year early. New elections are called in a time frame that makes sense.

edit ----

Remembering that you OFTEN bring France into these discussions (and yes I will ignore what France did to its royalty in the past!) please give your government's foreign office a ring and ask them if the government in Thailand is legal and legitimate!

Edited April 29, 2010 by jdinasia

[way2muchcoffee]

Is the Civil War a better solution? This is were Abhisit and Suthep are driving us....We are in an Emergency situation for avoiding the worse. I expect that at a Higher level than Abhisit there are some brain storming and there will be some contacts between all parties and they will arrive to a common ground. Situation is evolving and what has been said several days ago can be revised. Anand is a clever man (And a Stateman... at the difference of your idol)

Actually it is where the red shirt leaders are driving us. They are protesting violently and illegally. They have declared war. The government has a duty to protect the general public.

Edited April 29, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[jdinasia]

Airport Rail Link service postponed due to ongoing rally

BANGKOK (NNT) -- The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) has indefinitely postponed the opening date of its airport rail link service for safety reasons due to the ongoing protest.

Transport Minister Sopon Zarum stated that the postponement of the airport rail link service which was earlier scheduled to open on 30 April came after the prolonged political conflict and the recent BTS seizure case of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors.

The indefinite postponement was made to ensure passenger safety.

Mr Sopon affirmed that the Airport Rail Link service will be opened for commercial purpose on July, as scheduled.

Interested rail operators who want to join the test run service can still report themselves with the required documents to the SRT. During this time, the ministry would frequently conduct test runs to build confidence among the commuters before the official service started, Mr Sopon added.

That explains everything. It would be FAR too embarrassing to admit that it doesn't work. Long, drawn out, political protests as a cover for sloppy project time-scales and massive financial haemorrhaging? As good as any other conspiracy theory out there....

Alas, you can't sue Seimans and the other contractors after you blame it on political unrest!

[ThaksinKharma]

47 nations issue travel warning on Thailand

BANGKOK, 29 April 2010 (NNT) - 47 foreign countries have issued a travel warning against Thailand, 5 of which have instructed their citizens to avoid the country due to the ongoing political turmoil.

According to the latest report by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, tourists from Hong Kong, the Czech Republic, Taiwan and Germany are now banned from visiting the capital city of Bangkok, while those from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Spain and China are prohibited from travelling to Thailand.

The United Kingdom has forbidden entering Thailand until 30 April 2010 while Vietnam has also announced a temporary ban on the Kingdom.

A Level 2 alert has been declared by Slovakia, Macao, Bulgaria, Mexico, South Africa and many others, advising their citizens to exercise extreme caution when visiting Thailand.

Level 3 for avoidance of risk-prone locations currently applies for those from Canada, Cambodia, South Korea, Ukraine, Ireland, Malaysia, Japan, etc.

Meanwhile, the Level 4 announcement by Singapore, Indonesia, France, New Zealand, Australia, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Russia and the United States discourages travelers from landing at Suvarnabhumi International Airport.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255304290038

[Jerrytheyoung]

Sorry --- but you Failed to answer question 1

Are you, in fact, proposing a Coup?

And your conclusions for the rest of the post fly in the face of reality. The current government is both Legal and Legitimate. If you doubt that please feel free to contact your government (and that of every other country in the world).

Your claim to what democracy is, is equally flawed. There was a COALITION government under PPP (samak and Somchai) and there is a coalition government now. The smaller parties that joined with the PPP to create the Samak and Somchai governments had promised not to do so (what you call political mangling -- but in reality just an issue between those parties and their voters). The Dems didn't cry when Samak was elected by parliament, instead they do what you do in a Democracy and set up (a single party) opposition. When PPP fell ___ due to PROVEN electoral fraud ___ a new coalition was formed.

Remember --- PPP could have called for new elections even the day before they were dissolved --- they didn't.

Finally --- You bring Anand into this again --- AFTER Anand has stated that house dissolution and new elections are not the answer.

Is the Civil War a better solution? This is were Abhisit and Suthep are driving us....We are in an Emergency situation for avoiding the worse. I expect that at a Higher level than Abhisit there are some brain storming and there will be some contacts between all parties and they will arrive to a common ground. Situation is evolving and what has been said several days ago can be revised. Anand is a clever man (And a Stateman... at the difference of your idol)

OK .. I guess you won't actually say it but you are IN FACT proposing a Coup.

Strange that you don't blame the reds with their constant war cries (calls for violence from the stage) and their use of Sae Daeng's Ronin etc ....

Abhisit is the legal and legitimate PM of Thailand. Anand has said that dissolving parliament is NOT the answer.

The answer can be quite simple --- The violent red shirts leave Bangkok. They return to wherever their homes are. They get the PTP MP's to be active in Charter Reform (that you say is needed). The Dems do what they have offered to do and dissolve parliament 1 year early. New elections are called in a time frame that makes sense.

you repeat the same since weeks. maybe Abhisit is legally elected but it is the result of manglings which are no more acceptable, (even if in the past it was like that), so you can claim his legitimacy but others can state the opposite: this is not a sane situation: Statemen with a high vision return the power to People in such circumstances.

For the future, the Elections Rules have to be modified in depth,

It is obvious that we need Elections as soon as possible with the new rules, the current rules are conducting to a serie of disorders,manglings: the Modern Thailand needs better.

You can stick to the past and your idol, History is walking ahead....

[Nuchanart]

Airport Rail Link service postponed due to ongoing rally

BANGKOK (NNT) -- The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) has indefinitely postponed the opening date of its airport rail link service for safety reasons due to the ongoing protest.

Transport Minister Sopon Zarum stated that the postponement of the airport rail link service which was earlier scheduled to open on 30 April came after the prolonged political conflict and the recent BTS seizure case of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protestors.

The indefinite postponement was made to ensure passenger safety.

Mr Sopon affirmed that the Airport Rail Link service will be opened for commercial purpose on July, as scheduled.

Interested rail operators who want to join the test run service can still report themselves with the required documents to the SRT. During this time, the ministry would frequently conduct test runs to build confidence among the commuters before the official service started, Mr Sopon added.

That explains everything. It would be FAR too embarrassing to admit that it doesn't work. Long, drawn out, political protests as a cover for sloppy project time-scales and massive financial haemorrhaging? As good as any other conspiracy theory out there....

"Airport Rail Link service will be opened for commercial purpose on July, as scheduled."

What a joke. It was scheduled to be ready the same time as the Airport.

Shall we say 3 years late; or was 4 year/ Too long I don't remember.

[Tod Daniels]

Mazeltov is now claiming that the "junta" put PPP into power by bullying the smaller parties into joining a PPP coalition?

Not even the Dems ever suggested something that ludicrous! (In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

edit --- corrected the Freudian slip I made when typing M's name .....

(In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

Which is something the PTP has refused to do ever since the Demz got a Lower House majority; due to the PPP’s former comrade in arms; Newin Chidchob' nearly 40 MP's switching sides to the Demz camp.

It's totally the "Friends of Newin" group which brought about this current government coalition, just as he did for Samak/Somchai and the PPP, (by the way this is ALL post coup). Don't EVER under estimate the pull Newin Chidchob (as well as his father Chai) have with MP's in their 'stable'.

That is the 'swing vote'. It is almost a certainty that which ever side they swing to will hold a majority of Lower House seats and by that fact get to be the 'current' government. Newin (although banned from politics for 5 years) is clearly the wild card and/or loose cannon in all of this and HE knows it only too well.

PTP doesn't even run a 'shadow government' like most opposition parties have done. Instead they boycott readings of legislation, stall with endless debates, and do everything they can do to bring the wheels of progress to a halt as far as ANY of the positive changes the current government is or has tried to do. PTP prefers to just whine about the injustice of it all and sow more unrest.

It is sour grapes, because when Newin was on their side, they had the 'mandate' to run the government (via a majority of MP's in the Lower House thru coalition). However when the Demz did EXACTLY the same thing, suddenly it's "foul", "no-fair", you have "no mandate from the people", this government is "not legitimate".

Sorry but the PEOPLE voted for AND elected EVERY MP sitting in the Lower House now. Those MP's are entrusted to do what they see fit for the benefit of their constitutients.

If those proverbial 'people' don't like what the MP's they voted for are doing. Hmm, next time (which last time I checked is about the end of 2011), perhaps they should vote for someone else, and/or don't be so quick to vote like the 'nai' or puu-yai-baan' in your village tells you to.

[whybother]

Meanwhile on twitter, the hi-so twits are weighing up the gravity of the situation:

veen_NT RT @tulsathit: TR @Naya_nna: Have talked to some1 close to Pojaman. Family arriving inHK but trips got noth 2do w. rumoured Thaksin illness

veen_NT @veen_NT @tri26 @tulsathit UDDThailand Facebook page blocked on 3bb connection. Others reporting same. Anyone else?>>anyone?

TAN_Network The Sangha Supreme Council allows authorities to arrest monks joining in political rallies on site

veen_NT Central Chidlom is very quiet -only a few shoppers and the store is now playing "Rak Kan Wai Terd" song!!

veen_NT RT @VisitThailandTR: @veen_NT any extra discounts veen? Not at Emporium but check this out: http://bit.ly/auARpr

Gossip News: Fashion Warehouse Sale! Save Up to 90% Until May 31, 2010

Yes UDDThailand facebook is block. However you can access any block side through a Proxy Server web page. This is something I learn from my Burmese friend. If you do not know where are the Proxy Server, just google it.

Or PM me, I will tell you how.

I still have access to it, Load of tripe that it is!

edit: from inside Thailand ... no external proxy

Edited April 29, 2010 by whybother

[twschw]

It is not blocked. I am looking at it now. Careful with the proxy talk.

[A_Traveller]

@Jerry. You need to go away and learn constitutional law and practice [not just Thailand] under which the post of Prime Minister is filled.

1. The title Prime Minister [prime as in first] is a descriptive one, in that the individual has been selected [usually by a vote] by the members of the House of Representatives [e.g. in the UK The House of Commons] under the constitutional process know as 'First among Equals'. This requires that, dependent upon the exact law, that the candidate for PM be submitted to a vote by the House [and of the House] before he [or she] may be submitted to the Head of State as the House's [the elected members thereof] choice to serve as PM. In many cases this action is effectively invisible, e.g. if the individual is the leader of the party with an majority then the post may be voted by acclimation, or the opposition agreeing to his submission to the HoS, but under the law the vote must be recorded.

2.Some countries, Thailand among them until the last 2 constitutions, allow for a non member of the House to be elected, however, this could hardly be called democratic could it?. At least in the present PM's case he has been IIRC elected to the House on 7 different occasions.

Regards

Edit/typo//

Edited April 29, 2010 by A_Traveller

[Jerrytheyoung]

@Jerry. You need to go away and learn constitutional law and practice [not just Thailand] under which the post of Prime Minister is filled.

1. The title Prime Minister [prime as in first] is a descriptive one, in that the individual has been selected [usually by a vote] by the members of the House of Representatives [e.g. in the UK The House of Commons] under the constitutional process know as 'First among Equals'. This requires that, dependent upon the exact law, that the candidate for PM be submitted to a vote by the House [and of the House] before he [or she] may be submitted to the Head of State as the House's [the elected members thereof] choice to serve as PM. In many cases this action is effectively invisible, e.g. if the individual is the leader of the party with an majority then the post may be voted by acclimation, or the opposition agreeing to his submission to the HoS, but under the law the vote must be recorded.

2.Some countries, Thailand among them until the last 2 constitutions, allow for a non member of the House to be elected, however, this could hardly be called democratic could it?. At least in the present PM's case he has been IIRC elected to the House on 7 different occasions.

Regards

Edit/typo//

Your examples are from the Anglo-Saxon Model. They can be other models. French one for example.

On point 1, I agree this is the normal procedure. However in special circumstances, (Anand has been appointed for a short period in the 90's is not it? ), the situation of the Country may decide otherwise. A constitution may be amended, revoked even suspended in case of emergencies... De Gaulle came back to Power in 1958 under the condition of a new constitution, because the 4th Republic French Parliamentary system was conducting to series of crisis and immobilisations. During this period, (The 4th Republic), our PM (president du Conseil-exact title-) was elected by the parliament, and the president of Republic was mainly an honorific position. In fact a situation very similar to the Thai current one. The 5th Republic started in 1958, and the real Executive became the President of Republique, directly elected by People. (This could be also a suggestion for Thai: PM directly elected by people). The French institutions work well we have already gotten several times a PR from one side and a PM from the opposition. (Mitterand/Chirac- Chirac/Jospin)

On Point 2, French PMs are not always issued from the parliament and they may be Personnalities called by the President of Republic, However, the President of Republic has to call somebody who has the support of the Main group (or Coalition) in the parliament. (We have gotten very high level Economist or Lecturer like Pompidou or Alain Poher) at the first time they were appointed they were not MPs.

I repeat, in the French system, our President is directly Elected and is the real overall executive. But in the past,we have gotten a system very similar to the Thai current one (4th Republic), and it was catastrophic, (Due to the Algerian war and consequently the Civil war looming -driven by part of Army) De Gaulle accepted to come back at the condition the 4th Repbublic Constitution has been suspended, and replaced by the 5th republic constitution. A short while after his arrival to Power, we have gotten the 5th Constitution to approve through a National Referendum.

How to proceed; the french way....

De Gaulle's return to power (29 May 1958)

On 29 May the French President, René Coty, appealed to the “most illustrious of Frenchmen” to become the last President of the Council (Prime Minister) of the Fourth Republic — fifteen hours before the projected launch of Resurrection. De Gaulle had accepted Coty's proposal under the precondition that a new constitution would be introduced creating a powerful presidency in which a sole executive, the first of which was to be himself, ruled for seven-year periods. Another condition was that he be granted extraordinary powers for a period of six months.

His newly formed cabinet was approved by the National Assembly on 1 June 1958, by 329 votes against 224, while he was granted the power to govern by ordinances for a six-month period as well as the task to draft a new Constitution.

Edited April 29, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[A_Traveller]

<Sigh> As is typical you miss the point. Any PM [Head of Government] can be removed by censure of the House, Therefore, although the method française is a little different, it is in fact the same since no PM can survive without his [only one woman IIRC] reflecting the 'will of the House' [in your case National Assembly]. In fact the term PM was only applied to this post at the creation of the Fifth Republic, prior to that the position was President of the Council of Ministers but it was deemed prudent to change the nomenclature to avoid 'confusion'.

Regards

PS The "how to" procedure was added after I'd completed my reply, but is again pointless. After all the "most illustrious of Frenchmen" was targeted for assassination, so not everyone agreed with that appellation, and you are too looking backward [despite your criticism of that in others] to a very different situation, which you seem not to understand either. Algeria anyone. However, it is fruitless speculation which does reinforce your lack of appreciation of the here and now.

Edited April 29, 2010 by A_Traveller

[Jerrytheyoung]

<Sigh> As is typical you miss the point. Any PM [Head of Government] can be removed by censure of the House, Therefore, although the method française is a little different, it is in fact the same since no PM can survive without his [only one woman IIRC] reflecting the 'will of the House' [in your case National Assembly]. In fact the term PM was only applied to this post at the creation of the Fifth Republic, prior to that the position was President of the Council of Ministers but it was deemed prudent to change the nomenclature to avoid 'confusion'.

Regards

PS The "how to" procedure was added after I'd completed my reply, but is again pointless. After all the "most illustrious of Frenchmen" was targeted for assassination, so not everyone agreed with that appellation, and you are too looking backward to a very different situation, which you seem not to understand either. Algeria anyone. However, it is fruitless speculation which does reinforce your lack of appreciation of the here and now.

No, you miss some important details.

First I am not talking about the Algeria war, which was only the background but about the Fact that we have an insurgency in the French Army (Para-troopers). The issue was a looming civil war between French supported by part of the French Population (we were calling them the "Pieds Noirs", they have a terrorist branch (OAS). They were threatening to invade Paris. De gaulle has been appointed directly by the Higher level (Not by the Parliament) and this situation has been regularised later. The 4th Republic President of Republic (Rene Coty) has overpassed his normal powers as it should have been the Parliament calling De Gaulle for replacement of the PM.

However sure, there were some discussions in the background between all actors. We can imagine similar decision taken by the invisible hand, after discussions with all Thais actor and pushing in the Hot seat a personnality like Anand or equivalent.

In exceptional circumstances, some men take exceptional decisions.

Edited April 29, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[Honolulu]

An article like this in the west would lead to a pile of lawsuits. Apparently in thailand you can state "opinions" as facts. High school students could write better articles than this clown.

The article was probably written by someone with a high school education

[A_Traveller]

@Jerry, suspect I've forgotten more about 'your history' than you have learnt, look a little more carefully at my comments. However, not surprisingly since you don't seem to be able to understand the here and now, you continue to draw all the wrong conclusions.

Regards

[Jerrytheyoung]

One more point, the French PM can be removed by theParliament (Motion de Censure) or by Decision of The President de La Republique. ((Not based on a vote)

A-Traveller, I have read your comments and I know it corresponds to a parliamentary system based on the Anglo Saxon model, of whioch Thai system is inspired.

This system works well in UK with your culture and traditions but seems to be very cahotic in Thailand with unprecedented records of Coups and PMs changes.

Obviously the Thai system has to be modified....

Edited April 29, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[lazurus]

Very interesting. I was just reading the report from the ANFREL Group who were contracted to observe the 2007 elections. Evidently the present constitution has removed the need of a university degree to hold an MP position. I wasn't aware of this.

As the table below shows, many more parties and candidates contested the election in 2007 as

compared with 2005, despite the fact that fewer seats were available. This is particularly true

for constituency list seats. This is due to a number of factors, including the withdrawal of the

demand that candidates hold a Bachelor’s degree (over 30% of candidates did not hold one),

as well as the fact that the law required parties to field a full team of candidates in any given

constituency. In some cases, this lead to parties enlisting the candidacy of individuals who

were not viable candidates, simply to fulfill the requirements of the law.

http://www.anfrel.org/report/2007.asp

The quote is from page 13 of the pdf version of the report.

The last thing Thais need are more parties in each election. There can be 30 or more parties vying for the peoples votes. In USA there are 2 real parties, Canada 4 or 5 main parties. But in Thailand having several dozen just seems counter productive.

[Duangta]

Uniform problem

Why are the army and police appearing to be part of the problem rather than a solution to the challenge of the Red movement and the troubles facing the government?

The government wants to disperse Red protests yet the army and police have, with the exception of the failed operation of 10 April, proved reluctant and less willing to work together than usual.

Some theories and rumours boil down to rivalries and interests of different cliques within the army. Police are upset over the handling of senior police promotions and reshuffles by a government that came to power by way of a fix engineered by the army. In turn the army got back into politics by way of a coup in 2006 which deposed Thaksin Shinawatra, the elected prime minister and former police colonel.

Others point to the fallout should operations to disperse Red protests prove more deadly than that of 10 April which left 20 protestors dead, many shot by troops, and also killed four soldiers. Soldiers or police implicated in a bloody crackdown on Red protests could face difficulties should the Red movement prevail, voting in a government, one that might conceivably be headed by Thaksin. Instigators of the coup might then also be looking at trouble, perhaps at best exile.

Promotions and concerns about consequences appear then to be at least some of the causes that have the army and police marching time, preferring the sidelines to the frontlines. However they are also symptoms of structural troubles which shape the army and police as sources of insecurity and instability rather than security and stability.

While politics has evolved in Thailand since 1973 and shifted perhaps most significantly after the 1997 constitution that appears to have been a consequence of the uprising against army dictators in 1992, there has been little reform of the military and police.

Neither are particularly effective at what modern militaries and police are supposed to do. Their actual effect seems rather closer to an occupation force, there to put down threats that may emerge to the existing structure of power and prizes.

Both are quite effective however at providing comfortable, even highly lucrative, livelihoods for their members and the well-being of their families but not without pain. Promise of riches and more makes both institutions rather attractive, despite the generally low regard in which they are held by society. Great rewards attracts some people, perhaps many, who would otherwise go elsewhere for their livelihoods. It just so happens that being an armed uniform offers the best deal compared to other opportunities.

This might seem strange at first. Official salaries, as they are for most public servants in Thailand, are low and unlikely to buy the good life. A barista in Starbucks in Bangkok earns as much, if not more, than a police officer fresh out of the academy. That might reflect the values of a society which places a premium on people able to make drinks in an airconditioned environment over someone who is supposed to maintain order and security out on the sweltering smoggy streets. Anecdotal experience suggests that actually citizens and business want professional, effective, honest security forces more than baristas.

To compensate for low official salaries the military and police seek out alternative sources of income from petty corruption all the way up to grand corruption on procurement and trafficking in unregulated commodities such as military weapons and narcotics.

The army seems to have more official businesses, which may draw comparison with the militaries of Pakistan or Turkey, than the police. Like the police many soldiers also engage in unofficial business. To take a simple example at most discos and nightclubs in Thailand, including those open after the legal closing time of 2am, security is provided, efficiently, by smartly dressed and usually polite off-duty soldiers, and sometimes police, who may be in uniform. Historically a precedent might be the tax farming which was common before the advent of modern Thailand in the first half of the 20th century.

Rewards from these alternative sources of income generally increase as a soldier or police officer attains higher rank. Promotions then are sensitive in the army and police because of the power and opportunity they bring for accessing unofficial income, arising from legal and illegal business.

While the scope of unofficial income is almost unlimited it is accompanied by uncertainty over prospects, rewards and benefits. A soldier or police officer has to milk every opportunity while they can because it be may be lost in a new posting or even a promotion to a less lucrative unit. They may also face competition from other soldiers and police, especially those in different factions or patron-client networks. There are also pressures to generate revenues, either to send up to patrons or to send down to clients.

Within these organizations interests are further warped by the market for positions and promotions. Factors that may influence a career are merit, money and mediation. Merit being how well someone performs. Money being how much they can spend to pay for a position or promotion. Mediation being the scope, strength and influence of their connections whether through classmates, family, friends or patronage. Consequently professionalism and expertise may not be the best investment of time and effort to build a career and improve livelihood and well-being.

The nature of a livelihood in uniform is a reflection of the essentially unregulated structure of income, advancement and power in these organizations. In turn this attracts some, perhaps, many members who think more like opportunitists or entrepreneurs rather than public servants.

People in these organizations have to balance the demands of their official duties with the demands of maintaining or improving their livelihoods in an unregulated market. Uncertainty demands more time and effort to manage, it is in effect more inefficient than certainty.

They are however not entirely a law unto themselves. They have to balance the demands of competing factions and the give-and-take that goes with allying with power networks outside the uniform, especially politicians. They have a vested interest in cooperating to protect the existing power structure and the government in order to protect the structure of the unregulated markets within their own organizations from which they derive their rather lucrative livelihoods.

Why then are coups not more common when they would offer the uniforms a chance for even greater income? One explanation may be that in controlling the government they effectively become regulators, while also remaining actors. That brings costs and probably risks that may not always be worth the rewards. It is for many simpler and easier to focus on making headway in the markets of their own organizations while protecting the existance of those markets through cooperation with other power networks.

However there are times when they may have to take action outside their organizations up to and including shaping governments through back-room fixes or coups.

Structural instability of these security organizations augurs against their agents beingefficient executors of their official duties and responsibilities. Consequently public and national security and stability are going to be less than desired. This generates costs for citizens and business because insecurity and instability requires mitigation and adaptation. The most efficient and cost-effective solution is paying taxes to fund well paid, well equipped and regulated security forces.

Until the structural problems of Thailand's security forces are fixed they will always remain a potential source of instability and insecurity for politics and government. Political reform may face limits if it is not accompanied by reform of security. Reform of the army and police will not be easy and may face great resistance. Nevertheless until it is achieved politics and society in Thailand will be dogged by instability and insecurity. A starting point might be a decent, respectable salary.

http://thailandtrouble.blogspot.com/

[animatic]

Sorry --- but you Failed to answer question 1

Are you, in fact, proposing a Coup?

And your conclusions for the rest of the post fly in the face of reality. The current government is both Legal and Legitimate. If you doubt that please feel free to contact your government (and that of every other country in the world).

Your claim to what democracy is, is equally flawed. There was a COALITION government under PPP (samak and Somchai) and there is a coalition government now. The smaller parties that joined with the PPP to create the Samak and Somchai governments had promised not to do so (what you call political mangling -- but in reality just an issue between those parties and their voters). The Dems didn't cry when Samak was elected by parliament, instead they do what you do in a Democracy and set up (a single party) opposition. When PPP fell ___ due to PROVEN electoral fraud ___ a new coalition was formed.

Remember --- PPP could have called for new elections even the day before they were dissolved --- they didn't.

Finally --- You bring Anand into this again --- AFTER Anand has stated that house dissolution and new elections are not the answer.

Is the Civil War a better solution? This is were Abhisit and Suthep are driving us....We are in an Emergency situation for avoiding the worse. I expect that at a Higher level than Abhisit there are some brain storming and there will be some contacts between all parties and they will arrive to a common ground. Situation is evolving and what has been said several days ago can be revised. Anand is a clever man (And a Stateman... at the difference of your idol)

The antagonists in this impassioned player are the Thaksin driven Red shirt leaders.

The protagonists are the Gov and the average Thai person trying to get on with their lives.

How you can perceive that Abhisit and Suthep are the driving forces is quite unclear.

And quite incorrect, they are the immobile object that the force errant is banging up against.

[animatic]

Uniform problem

Why are the army and police appearing to be part of the problem rather than a solution to the challenge of the Red movement and the troubles facing the government?

The government wants to disperse Red protests yet the army and police have, with the exception of the failed operation of 10 April, proved reluctant and less willing to work together than usual.

Some theories and rumours boil down to rivalries and interests of different cliques within the army. Police are upset over the handling of senior police promotions and reshuffles by a government that came to power by way of a fix engineered by the army. In turn the army got back into politics by way of a coup in 2006 which deposed Thaksin Shinawatra, the elected prime minister and former police colonel.

Others point to the fallout should operations to disperse Red protests prove more deadly than that of 10 April which left 20 protestors dead, many shot by troops, and also killed four soldiers. Soldiers or police implicated in a bloody crackdown on Red protests could face difficulties should the Red movement prevail, voting in a government, one that might conceivably be headed by Thaksin. Instigators of the coup might then also be looking at trouble, perhaps at best exile.

Promotions and concerns about consequences appear then to be at least some of the causes that have the army and police marching time, preferring the sidelines to the frontlines. However they are also symptoms of structural troubles which shape the army and police as sources of insecurity and instability rather than security and stability.

While politics has evolved in Thailand since 1973 and shifted perhaps most significantly after the 1997 constitution that appears to have been a consequence of the uprising against army dictators in 1992, there has been little reform of the military and police.

Neither are particularly effective at what modern militaries and police are supposed to do. Their actual effect seems rather closer to an occupation force, there to put down threats that may emerge to the existing structure of power and prizes.

Both are quite effective however at providing comfortable, even highly lucrative, livelihoods for their members and the well-being of their families but not without pain. Promise of riches and more makes both institutions rather attractive, despite the generally low regard in which they are held by society. Great rewards attracts some people, perhaps many, who would otherwise go elsewhere for their livelihoods. It just so happens that being an armed uniform offers the best deal compared to other opportunities.

This might seem strange at first. Official salaries, as they are for most public servants in Thailand, are low and unlikely to buy the good life. A barista in Starbucks in Bangkok earns as much, if not more, than a police officer fresh out of the academy. That might reflect the values of a society which places a premium on people able to make drinks in an airconditioned environment over someone who is supposed to maintain order and security out on the sweltering smoggy streets. Anecdotal experience suggests that actually citizens and business want professional, effective, honest security forces more than baristas.

To compensate for low official salaries the military and police seek out alternative sources of income from petty corruption all the way up to grand corruption on procurement and trafficking in unregulated commodities such as military weapons and narcotics.

The army seems to have more official businesses, which may draw comparison with the militaries of Pakistan or Turkey, than the police. Like the police many soldiers also engage in unofficial business. To take a simple example at most discos and nightclubs in Thailand, including those open after the legal closing time of 2am, security is provided, efficiently, by smartly dressed and usually polite off-duty soldiers, and sometimes police, who may be in uniform. Historically a precedent might be the tax farming which was common before the advent of modern Thailand in the first half of the 20th century.

Rewards from these alternative sources of income generally increase as a soldier or police officer attains higher rank. Promotions then are sensitive in the army and police because of the power and opportunity they bring for accessing unofficial income, arising from legal and illegal business.

While the scope of unofficial income is almost unlimited it is accompanied by uncertainty over prospects, rewards and benefits. A soldier or police officer has to milk every opportunity while they can because it be may be lost in a new posting or even a promotion to a less lucrative unit. They may also face competition from other soldiers and police, especially those in different factions or patron-client networks. There are also pressures to generate revenues, either to send up to patrons or to send down to clients.

Within these organizations interests are further warped by the market for positions and promotions. Factors that may influence a career are merit, money and mediation. Merit being how well someone performs. Money being how much they can spend to pay for a position or promotion. Mediation being the scope, strength and influence of their connections whether through classmates, family, friends or patronage. Consequently professionalism and expertise may not be the best investment of time and effort to build a career and improve livelihood and well-being.

The nature of a livelihood in uniform is a reflection of the essentially unregulated structure of income, advancement and power in these organizations. In turn this attracts some, perhaps, many members who think more like opportunitists or entrepreneurs rather than public servants.

People in these organizations have to balance the demands of their official duties with the demands of maintaining or improving their livelihoods in an unregulated market. Uncertainty demands more time and effort to manage, it is in effect more inefficient than certainty.

They are however not entirely a law unto themselves. They have to balance the demands of competing factions and the give-and-take that goes with allying with power networks outside the uniform, especially politicians. They have a vested interest in cooperating to protect the existing power structure and the government in order to protect the structure of the unregulated markets within their own organizations from which they derive their rather lucrative livelihoods.

Why then are coups not more common when they would offer the uniforms a chance for even greater income? One explanation may be that in controlling the government they effectively become regulators, while also remaining actors. That brings costs and probably risks that may not always be worth the rewards. It is for many simpler and easier to focus on making headway in the markets of their own organizations while protecting the existance of those markets through cooperation with other power networks.

However there are times when they may have to take action outside their organizations up to and including shaping governments through back-room fixes or coups.

Structural instability of these security organizations augurs against their agents beingefficient executors of their official duties and responsibilities. Consequently public and national security and stability are going to be less than desired. This generates costs for citizens and business because insecurity and instability requires mitigation and adaptation. The most efficient and cost-effective solution is paying taxes to fund well paid, well equipped and regulated security forces.

Until the structural problems of Thailand's security forces are fixed they will always remain a potential source of instability and insecurity for politics and government. Political reform may face limits if it is not accompanied by reform of security. Reform of the army and police will not be easy and may face great resistance. Nevertheless until it is achieved politics and society in Thailand will be dogged by instability and insecurity. A starting point might be a decent, respectable salary.

http://thailandtrouble.blogspot.com/

Interesting post and general explanation.

Sadly lacking a manner of rectifying the situation...

but I never expected one.

[Neurath]

Mazeltov is now claiming that the "junta" put PPP into power by bullying the smaller parties into joining a PPP coalition?

Not even the Dems ever suggested something that ludicrous! (In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

edit --- corrected the Freudian slip I made when typing M's name .....

(In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

Which is something the PTP has refused to do ever since the Demz got a Lower House majority; due to the PPP's former comrade in arms; Newin Chidchob' nearly 40 MP's switching sides to the Demz camp.

It's totally the "Friends of Newin" group which brought about this current government coalition, just as he did for Samak/Somchai and the PPP, (by the way this is ALL post coup). Don't EVER under estimate the pull Newin Chidchob (as well as his father Chai) have with MP's in their 'stable'.

That is the 'swing vote'. It is almost a certainty that which ever side they swing to will hold a majority of Lower House seats and by that fact get to be the 'current' government. Newin (although banned from politics for 5 years) is clearly the wild card and/or loose cannon in all of this and HE knows it only too well.

PTP doesn't even run a 'shadow government' like most opposition parties have done. Instead they boycott readings of legislation, stall with endless debates, and do everything they can do to bring the wheels of progress to a halt as far as ANY of the positive changes the current government is or has tried to do. PTP prefers to just whine about the injustice of it all and sow more unrest.

It is sour grapes, because when Newin was on their side, they had the 'mandate' to run the government (via a majority of MP's in the Lower House thru coalition). However when the Demz did EXACTLY the same thing, suddenly it's "foul", "no-fair", you have "no mandate from the people", this government is "not legitimate".

Sorry but the PEOPLE voted for AND elected EVERY MP sitting in the Lower House now. Those MP's are entrusted to do what they see fit for the benefit of their constitutients.

If those proverbial 'people' don't like what the MP's they voted for are doing. Hmm, next time (which last time I checked is about the end of 2011), perhaps they should vote for someone else, and/or don't be so quick to vote like the 'nai' or puu-yai-baan' in your village tells you to.

Newin's asking price continues to appreciate as this mess goes on. He'll be able to name his price after the next election. "O.K. Pussy Lips what do you want?" "Transport, Interior, Education, Agriculture, Health, .... oh, and you may as well throw in Culture in case I feel like the odd Film Festival (comes in hand for the kids I'm told.)"

[animatic]

Mazeltov is now claiming that the "junta" put PPP into power by bullying the smaller parties into joining a PPP coalition?

Not even the Dems ever suggested something that ludicrous! (In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

edit --- corrected the Freudian slip I made when typing M's name .....

(In fact the Dems just bit the bullet and became the opposition)

Which is something the PTP has refused to do ever since the Demz got a Lower House majority; due to the PPP’s former comrade in arms; Newin Chidchob' nearly 40 MP's switching sides to the Demz camp.

It's totally the "Friends of Newin" group which brought about this current government coalition, just as he did for Samak/Somchai and the PPP, (by the way this is ALL post coup). Don't EVER under estimate the pull Newin Chidchob (as well as his father Chai) have with MP's in their 'stable'.

That is the 'swing vote'. It is almost a certainty that which ever side they swing to will hold a majority of Lower House seats and by that fact get to be the 'current' government. Newin (although banned from politics for 5 years) is clearly the wild card and/or loose cannon in all of this and HE knows it only too well.

PTP doesn't even run a 'shadow government' like most opposition parties have done. Instead they boycott readings of legislation, stall with endless debates, and do everything they can do to bring the wheels of progress to a halt as far as ANY of the positive changes the current government is or has tried to do. PTP prefers to just whine about the injustice of it all and sow more unrest.

It is sour grapes, because when Newin was on their side, they had the 'mandate' to run the government (via a majority of MP's in the Lower House thru coalition). However when the Demz did EXACTLY the same thing, suddenly it's "foul", "no-fair", you have "no mandate from the people", this government is "not legitimate".

Sorry but the PEOPLE voted for AND elected EVERY MP sitting in the Lower House now. Those MP's are entrusted to do what they see fit for the benefit of their constitutients.

If those proverbial 'people' don't like what the MP's they voted for are doing. Hmm, next time (which last time I checked is about the end of 2011), perhaps they should vote for someone else, and/or don't be so quick to vote like the 'nai' or puu-yai-baan' in your village tells you to.

And isn't it all so telling that the major invective is ALL aimed at Abhisit and the Dems,

and little or nothing ever aimed at that strong swing vote player Newin.

Who almost single handedly brought down the Thaksin machine.

Why might that be?

Well because they want to knock out the biggest other player

and not need worry about an opposing coalition at all.

Not to mention that the Dems are so efficient in comparison

PTP is an embarrassment to itself standing beside them.

And secondly if they can't destroy the Dems, they need to

still be able to BUY Newin's affections in the future if needed badly enough.

Edited April 29, 2010 by animatic