Thailand Polls: Reds, Yellows Here To Stay

[webfact]

CHANG NOI

Polls: reds, yellows here to stay

By Chang Noi

How do people feel about inequality, politics, reds, and yellows?

One result of the political turmoil is that some have realised they don't know their fellow countrymen, and this ignorance is becoming a handicap. Over the last three years, there has been a flurry of surveys trying to find who is stirred up and why. Many of these are too small in scale or too biased in design to take seriously. But a few have both scale and quality. This is very useful. There are lots of pundits and commentators ready to tell us what the great Thai public thinks, but it's better to listen to the people direct.

The Thailand Development Research Institute conducted a large survey about poverty and inequality. They asked respondents why certain people are poor. In all 62 per cent say the poor are poor because they are born poor, while 36 per cent say the poor are lazy. Of course, it is mostly the richer respondents who come out with the laziness argument. Similarly, 75 per cent say the rich are rich because they were born rich, while 41 per cent (mostly the richer respondents) say they work hard.

Over three-quarters think that the income gap in society is too wide. A third think it is intolerably wide. Among the people at the bottom of the heap, that proportion goes up to almost half.

Several commentators have argued that the poor are happy, and that mobility precludes social tension. These data suggest they are dreaming. Most people, especially those nearer the bottom of the heap, think you are rich or poor from birth. They are aware of inequality, and they don't like it.

In the wake of the Songkran riots last year, another survey was commissioned by the Thai Health Foundation, an independent institute funded by sin taxes. The sample was over five thousand people spread widely across the country.

When asked about their level of interest in politics, four-fifths placed themselves in the upper half of the scale. Three-quarters follow political news - larger than any other type of news. Some 41 per cent say they have high interest in following political news regularly. Three-fifths think Thai politics are in crisis. So much for the silent, uneducated, disinterested mass.

When asked what is the biggest problem of democracy, the largest answer is corruption. That is quite usual in such surveys. More interesting is the problem ranked second: interference in politics. Over three-quarters of the sample think that privy councillors should not get involved in supporting or opposing political movements. And 56 per cent believe the army should have no right to perform a coup, rip up the constitution, or overthrow a government.

The survey then asked people if they had participated in demonstrations. Around one-in-seven say yes. Some 6 per cent have taken part in yellow events, some 6 per cent in red events, and two per cent in other demonstrations. Now 6 per cent might seem quite small. But that would mean about 2.5 million reds and 2.5 million yellows. When asked why they participated, the single largest reason was that they could "no longer tolerate the political situation."

Respondents were then asked how they felt about each of the movements. In all, 18 per cent agreed with the yellow shirts, and another 23 per cent could accept them in part, while 26 per cent opposed them and a third declined to answer. For the reds, 20 per cent were supportive, another 18 per cent partially supportive, and a third were strongly opposed. From this survey, each of the movements has support from about a fifth of the population. Remember this survey took place a year ago when the closure of the airport and the burning buses at Songkran were still in the mind.

Do people want Thaksin back? 46 per cent said yes and 54 per cent said no. Interestingly, this was a question on which nobody was neutral.

Finally, when respondents were asked about their general political opinions, 93 per cent believed that the constitutional monarchy is the most appropriate system for Thailand. 85 per cent want to retain the right to peaceful demonstration, and 79 per cent believe the government should not attack peaceful demonstrations. An overwhelming majority are opposed to an amnesty for politicians; they want the law to take its course. Only 24 per cent think the Democrat Party is fit to govern, with rather more slating the party as too sluggish and slow.

In short, this survey portrays a politically involved country in which people want democracy to work, want the army and other institutions to keep out, want the right to peaceful expression of opinion, and want the judicial system to function. It is also a country where the red and yellow movements have taken root, with significant numbers of active members, and broad support in the population.

It is worth noting that, though the survey was conducted professionally, farmers and manual workers are rather under-represented in the sample. This is a common problem. People who work hard are more difficult to interview. Correcting for the bias would probably increase support for the red, and reduce that for the yellow.

The political scientist, Anek Laothammatas, wrote an analysis of the survey results. He notes that, back in the 1980s, when the palace and barracks opposed a political movement, that movement was finished. Think of events such as the April Fool's day coup attempt. The resilience of the reds today shows that Thai politics is now in a totally new era. Anek concludes, "Both red and yellow have their own rationale, values, and ideology. We should not hope for red to defeat yellow, or yellow defeat red, but hope for them to compete, conflict, and compromise in a peaceful and more rational manner."

There is one last fascinating aspect of this survey. Almost a year after it was completed, it has not been published or publicly presented. Could it be that the survey's messages and Anek's commentary are just too far away from the mentality and trajectory of this government?

-- The Nation 2010-06-28

[jackdawson]

farmers and manual workers are rather under-represented in the sample. This is a common problem. People who work hard are more difficult to interview.

what the f does this mean ? people who wear a tie and / or don't operate a machine don't "work hard" ?

[rabo]

farmers and manual workers are rather under-represented in the sample. This is a common problem. People who work hard are more difficult to interview.

what the f does this mean ? people who wear a tie and / or don't operate a machine don't "work hard" ?

Ideally, in Thailand, no, they don't.

Edited June 28, 2010 by rabo

[cshort64]

This is an interesting read, there is much to be said for this type of poll, unfortunately I am not sure what will change. If the Thai Military could be put in it's place to protect the country from unwanted foreign agression and leave politics and governming to the citizens this would be a HUGE step. That feeling we have during an election here that if the 'wrong' party wins that there will be a coup or when things are not going the way the military likes it, there could be a coup disappeared and we could rest assured that the military could not move forward and disrupt government, this would go a long way to making the country's citizens feel more at ease.

Much more needs to be done and I hope it will, but this would be an excellent step forward.

C

[kuffki]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

[OzMick]

<br>This is an interesting read, there is much to be said for this type of poll, unfortunately I am not sure what will change.  If the Thai Military could be put in it's place to protect the country from unwanted foreign agression and leave politics and governming to the citizens this would be a HUGE step.  That feeling we have during an election here that if the 'wrong' party wins that there will be a coup or when things are not going the way the military likes it, there could be a coup disappeared and we could rest assured that the military could not move forward and disrupt government, this would go a long way to making the country's citizens feel more at ease.<br><br>Much more needs to be done and I hope it will, but this would be an excellent step forward.<br><br>C<br>

<br><br>I feel, and with allowance for statistical error so do half the survey respondents, that the military can be a stabilizing influence in an emerging democracy. I also think that the last coup was well and truly justified in deposing a would-be ruthless dictator in-the-making, and was a normal step in the checks and balances needed for a democracy to work. Yes, it was a HUGE step to take, but necessary.  <br>

[eggomaniac]

<BR>Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.<BR>Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.<BR><BR>May be its just me though.<BR>

<BR>I beg to differ! All my wife's family get one day off per week and about one week per year.<BR>One of the reasons I am trying so hard to bring about positive change is the picture of grown men who go up down sois, day after day, on 50 cc motorbikes for a few cents per ride. 90% of Thais don't deserve the mess the mobsters are creating for them.

Edited June 28, 2010 by eggomaniac

[kissdani]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

No, it is you, but you are not alone. Some Farangs at TVF like to talk bad about Thai people. Why you come here at all?

[jackdawson]

95% of Thais are good hearted, hard working

can i see the data on this ?

They can abide class distinction, but not a bunch of snooty mobsters...getting away with theft and murder.

yes , they've only been doing it for OVER 1,000 years

If you would speak a little bit Thai language you would understand

poot arrai na ? pom mai kao jai kop

Edited June 28, 2010 by jackdawson

[kuffki]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

No, it is you, but you are not alone. Some Farangs at TVF like to talk bad about Thai people. Why you come here at all?

Ohh the "i love Thailand" crew is here! oF COURSE its the bEST!

I am also sure you speak, read and write fluent Thai

[hammered]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

What a silly comment. The all Thais............ (fill in the gap) kind of comment you hear in so many expat hang outs

[kuffki]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

What a silly comment. The all Thais............ (fill in the gap) kind of comment you hear in so many expat hang outs

if you could perhaps underline where i said "ALL" or where i said Thai"s" emphasis on the '"s"?

[MCos]

I have worked in offices in half a dozen countries and I would suggest from that very limited sample the London offices were the most unproductive especially when taking salary into account.

[asiawatcher]

For what it represents, I don't think this poll is too bad. Remember there are poor and there are poorer. In as much as judgement here seems to reflect those with money worked hard or inherited - is there any other way? Those who are poor and work hard to pull themselves out succeed - but many do not have 'incentive'. Call that being lazy or lack of thought process but it is the same in any country.

In the west where a social security system prevails, there is no incentive to work. Its easier to cop the dole, rental assistance, child support, free medical et al and adjust how much you drink to what you get! LOL. But in Thailand I see many who are happy to go buy a few trinkets for 100 Baht and sell them for 200, fruit vendors being a case in sample. So the poor here DO have options.

But the political divide and the lack of communication between the two is a stumbling block to be sure. 100% against what has been done - but not all reds are like that, but if any believe in Thaksin then I would have to say 'later dude!'. The man is the lowest form of life I have ever seen in Thai society. Opinion or not, this is my poll on it.

[MCos]

"In the west where a social security system prevails, there is no incentive to work. "

As one who signed up for the unemployment benefit for a short period last Christmas after working for 43 straight years I resent that put down of a system that ensures in my country there are no beggars on the streets, no child labour, limited prostitution etc. I would suggest this comment says more about your own mind-set than the actual reality. And for your information I was back working before I received a single dollar from the government.

[jayjay0]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

No, it is you, but you are not alone. Some Farangs at TVF like to talk bad about Thai people. Why you come here at all?

Even more puzeling is why he stays here. He has openly condemed every single Thai in Thailand and yet he lives with one. Some people refuse to see good in any one who is not exactly like them.

[Jingthing]

Do people want Thaksin back? 46 per cent said yes and 54 per cent said no. Interestingly, this was a question on which nobody was neutral.

Game, set, match. Sure hope Thaksin read that. He is NOT wanted back.

[kuffki]

Hmm, i am yet to come across a Thai who actually works while at work.

Yes physically present but hardly anything gets done ever between the brakes, the sleeps, the personal phone calls while with the customer,the snack run, and bf or gf problem discussion, the smoke break, the bad mood break, the computer not work because unplugged break and list goes on.

May be its just me though.

No, it is you, but you are not alone. Some Farangs at TVF like to talk bad about Thai people. Why you come here at all?

Even more puzeling is why he stays here. He has openly condemed every single Thai in Thailand and yet he lives with one. Some people refuse to see good in any one who is not exactly like them.

OK smartie pants,if you could perhaps underline where i said "ALL" or where i said Thai"s" emphasis on the '"s"?

Also could you underline where i said i live with one?

Thailand is the best and ALL work very hard, especially the security guards. Not only they sleep on the job but have pillows and blankets to make it more comfortable. Then when you go to an ice cream shop which is no bigger then 2x2 in size and have 5-6 people work there and yet somehow you always end up waiting to be served(must be from all that hard work)

Then you head over to the supermarket wanting to buy a fan but they only have display left, so you ask to check at the back if they have more-without moving you get an answer NO, only to find 2 hours later a shelve stacked with new boxes(also must be from working very hard)

Then (personal experience) you hire a dog walker to walk dogs for 1 hour. After the 3rd walk, she no longer wants to work because she did not realize it was such a hard job, hard job because she has to walk for an hour.

Then comes running the business. You call Fedex to order boxes(which by company system should be delivered the next day) 1 week later still no boxes, so you call again, only to find out that the first person did not enter the order(clearly too tired from hard work) so you order again and another week still no boxes and funny enough exactly the same reason.

You then go to a bank and while being served, her phone rings. She/he answers the phone with a huge smile and even if one does not speak Thai its kind of pretty clear who is calling, but if you do words like tirag, raak khun, joob joob kind of give it away-so you stand around while she/ he has a nice chat.

You then had an accident so you head over to police station to fill out the report. Only to find out that the officer(and there is only one) who takes the report has to go to pick up his kid from school. So 4 hours later you still sitting in the station waiting for him to come back. When he walks in the room, there is a strong smell of beer, so not only he picked up the kids during working hours but stopped over for a few-yeah hard work.

Best one yet is when you go to the hospital ER after having an accident and the nurse who is taking care of your wounds is in very interesting conversation with another nurse, so she does not see/realize that the cotton ball fell out from the metal twizers and she is now scraping an open wound with metal making it worse not to mention pain-very hard work.

But my favorite yet is going to get your driving license or driving lessons. Driving lesson consists of you driving in a circle while the instructor is having a beer and chatting to his mates. Then comes the driving test to get the license, which is pretty much the same, you drive the course while he sits about 100 meters away having a chat to mates-the finest example of hard work for both.

Yes, very hard working! and simply the best!

[eggomaniac]

Do people want Thaksin back? 46 per cent said yes and 54 per cent said no. Interestingly, this was a question on which nobody was neutral.

Game, set, match. Sure hope Thaksin read that. He is NOT wanted back.

I want Thaksin back, too, IN jail, in the same cell as Sondhi. More importantly, a ban on any kind of political activity, for both of them, and public accounting for any and all business dealing, to see if they can make an honest living.

However ???"game, set, and match"??? &lt;deleted&gt; do you think 46% adds up to in politics? small potatoes? NOT / [30 serving 40 in Set 1] is more like it. Stalemate more like it.

This 46% was the only disturbing part of the Poll, in my opinion. Any Western political party, sans 2 party USA, would be licking there chops at a whopping 46% as the Thaksin team most undoubtedly, and most unfortunately, is.

If you want to be true enemy of Thaksin, STOP underestimating him. If you want to see him, properly, taken down, you have to take down his cohorts, Sondhi and the rest of them, AND take THEIR system, the system that created them. As long as there is a swamp there are going to be crocs. It's pretty hard to find dolphins in a shark tank.

Also, Thaksin did twice as good than the Democrats in these Polls.

"""Only 24 per cent think the Democrat Party is fit to govern, with rather more stating the party as too sluggish and slow. '''

Edited July 4, 2010 by cdnvic
enough about the joseph plan to sell books

[kissdani]

Do people want Thaksin back? 46 per cent said yes and 54 per cent said no. Interestingly, this was a question on which nobody was neutral.

Game, set, match. Sure hope Thaksin read that. He is NOT wanted back.

Did you read the article yourself? Your "Game, set, match" don't reflect the conclusion: "Both red and yellow have their own rationale, values, and ideology. We should not hope for red to defeat yellow, or yellow defeat red, but hope for them to compete, conflict, and compromise in a peaceful and more rational manner."

It is not about to WIN and beat the other, but work together for a solution.

46% is still a lot. There are also Red Shirts who say it is not about to get Thaksin back. Would be interesting to know the original question.

Q: Do people want Thaksin back?

A: No

Is that a "What do YOU think" Question or more like "what you think do the other people think, what in your opinion is the general public opinion (and not your very own)"?

And does a 'NO' as answer really mean "I am strictlyy against that Thaksin comes back" or just "No, that is not on my wish-list"?

And the 46 percent who have Thaksin on their wish list cannot be ignored just because they are 5 percent short of more than the half.

The article also says: "It is worth noting that, though the survey was conducted professionally, farmers and manual workers are rather under-represented in the sample. This is a common problem. People who work hard are more difficult to interview. Correcting for the bias would probably increase support for the red, and reduce that for the yellow."

And what you think about the other results of he poll?

Finally, when respondents were asked about their general political opinions, 93 per cent believed that the constitutional monarchy is the most appropriate system for Thailand. 85 per cent want to retain the right to peaceful demonstration, and 79 per cent believe the government should not attack peaceful demonstrations. An overwhelming majority are opposed to an amnesty for politicians; they want the law to take its course. Only 24 per cent think the Democrat Party is fit to govern, with rather more slating the party as too sluggish and slow.

Specially that 24% result is interesting. That kills the often repeated myth that Abhisit is backed up by the majority of Thai people. I hope you read that. In your terms of 'game, set, match' is that a clear LOSE. The figure of around 24% support came also up in other polls and varies not much over the time, last year or more recent polls, before or after the disasters. it stays around 25%. This govt is not and never was popular. Face it or GO HOME! (quoting you)

Of course that don't means that the other 76% are against the government. But 24% support is not much. That is less then the percent of people actually vote in the last election for the Democrats. Some people may have thought, the Democrats will have a value as a strong opposition, needed as check and balance factor in a parliamentary democracy, but voters with these thoughts never considered that the Democrats will lead or should lead the government. Who knows.

PS: In the last paragraph of the article is a hint if Thaksin had read it or not.

[march]

Do people want Thaksin back? 46 per cent said yes and 54 per cent said no.

Probably the 46% that said yes that they want Thaksin back... want him back to serve out his prison sentence and complete his other still-pending trials. The 54% that said no, they thought that it was better if he just stayed away.

[Extraterrestrial]

farmers and manual workers are rather under-represented in the sample. This is a common problem. People who work hard are more difficult to interview.

what the f does this mean ? people who wear a tie and / or don't operate a machine don't "work hard" ?

Mobile? Too far out in the muddy fields? A misprint? No idea.

The Red vs Yellow division is, like most, false.

Believe it or not, a very small segment of the Thai population is more than happy the masses are divided this way.

Why? Because if they stop fighting each other and join together and work for positive change............well, you fill in the rest.

Some human once said, "divide and conquer." How true.

And it is the same worldwide.

For example, in the USA: republicans/conservatives vs democrats/liberals.

It does not really matter which one has the power because the "system" remains as it is; no significant change results.

In most countries on planet earth, politicians promise fundamental change, but it never comes after the elections.

It is a game: "only a pawn in their game." --think Bob Dylan said that (a smart human)

[cdnvic]

Flames, name calling, and blatant propaganda removed. If you have something to add to the conversation by all means post it. If all you have to do is call another member names or cheer on your favourite t-shirt colour (or "the joseph plan"), it will most likely wind up in the bin so don't waste your time.

[PhilHarries]

It's all very well for expats to comment on the disparity in earnings between the rural and unskilled Thais and the city based professionals but it is that very disparity that makes Thailand such a cheap place to live.

Let's face it if that disparity were to be drastically reduced the poor of the country would not be satisfied if it were achieved by a reduction in the wealth of the top 20%. It is the 80% that want more and that inevitably leads to increases in costs which will affect the 100%.

Interesting results though I didn't see any information on sample size. The only poll that is 100% correct, ignoring the effect of leading questions, is one that polls 100% of the population. The further you drift from that 100% the larger the potential error.

[moe666]

I would say most of the Thais I have come in contact with work pretty hard. On my last trip went to Tesco Lotus and the salesman was very helpful of course he wanted to sell the most expensive item, good sales technique. The delivery men showed up on time and didn't leave until all equipment set up and operating.

Yes, I am sure there are lazy Thais as there are lazy Americans, Brits, Germans, and Aussies.

[scorecard]

<br>This is an interesting read, there is much to be said for this type of poll, unfortunately I am not sure what will change.  If the Thai Military could be put in it's place to protect the country from unwanted foreign agression and leave politics and governming to the citizens this would be a HUGE step.  That feeling we have during an election here that if the 'wrong' party wins that there will be a coup or when things are not going the way the military likes it, there could be a coup disappeared and we could rest assured that the military could not move forward and disrupt government, this would go a long way to making the country's citizens feel more at ease.<br><br>Much more needs to be done and I hope it will, but this would be an excellent step forward.<br><br>C<br>

<br><br>I feel, and with allowance for statistical error so do half the survey respondents, that the military can be a stabilizing influence in an emerging democracy. I also think that the last coup was well and truly justified in deposing a would-be ruthless dictator in-the-making, and was a normal step in the checks and balances needed for a democracy to work. Yes, it was a HUGE step to take, but necessary.  <br>

I suggest there's another both local and broader long-term perspective to look at.

Ancient global history show many examples of leaders who remained as the leader at the whim of the military leaders of their countries.

Thailand changed from an absolute monarchy in 1932 and prior to 1932 the military had enormous power and control, and also saw itself as the protector of the people.

So, is it realistic that at 1932 and the introduction of democracy / an elected parliament etc etc, that the military would suddenly 'retreat to the barracks', and focus totally on polishing their shoes? Of course not!

A study of Thai politics from 1932 to today shows very clearly that parties / politicians, 99% thereof, were opportunists, even thug opportunists with little capability and no morals. Hence the military kept its' eye on the situation as something like an ultimate 'watchdog', and intervened when it saw that the nasty politicians were taking advantage of the situation for their own ends.

I suggest this situation / this self perception of the military's own role was still in place at the time of the 2006 coup.

Also relevant is that large numbers of Bangkok people came onto the streets quickly when the 2006 coup happened and gave flowers (symbolically meaning 'I support you') water, food etc., to the soldiers. In essence, a 'thank you'.

Surely also relevant is that the time will come when the past watchdog role of the Thai military is no longer relevant / no longer acceptable, as democracy grows and becomes mature.

In other words there is / there must be, a turning point. And it's probably true that the turning point will be bumpy.

I suggest that's what's happening right now.

Edited July 5, 2010 by scorecard

[Sao Jiang Mai]

As a Thai who employs many fellow Thais, I am deeply insulted by the guy above's comments about all of us being lazy. And yes, to say that he 'has yet to meet' a Thai who works at work, is calling all Thai workers lazy. My staff work exceptionally hard and I would challenge anyone to call them lazy. Look at the market, where vendors begin their days at 3 a.m., talk to a noodle restaurant owner and ask how many hours they put in, observe a gardener at work and see how dilligent he is. Silly ignorant - and rude - man.

[scorecard]

As a Thai who employs many fellow Thais, I am deeply insulted by the guy above's comments about all of us being lazy. And yes, to say that he 'has yet to meet' a Thai who works at work, is calling all Thai workers lazy. My staff work exceptionally hard and I would challenge anyone to call them lazy. Look at the market, where vendors begin their days at 3 a.m., talk to a noodle restaurant owner and ask how many hours they put in, observe a gardener at work and see how dilligent he is. Silly ignorant - and rude - man.

Dear 'Sao Jiang Mai',

I acknowledge your post and share that I too (I am western)have managed and worked with hundreds of Thai people (over several decades) who are strongly committed to their work and are absolutely not lazy.

[kissdani]

As a Thai who employs many fellow Thais, I am deeply insulted by the guy above's comments about all of us being lazy. And yes, to say that he 'has yet to meet' a Thai who works at work, is calling all Thai workers lazy. My staff work exceptionally hard and I would challenge anyone to call them lazy. Look at the market, where vendors begin their days at 3 a.m., talk to a noodle restaurant owner and ask how many hours they put in, observe a gardener at work and see how dilligent he is. Silly ignorant - and rude - man.

:thumbsup: