Bigger Earthquakes Expected For Thailand

[webfact]

EARTHQUAKE

Bigger earthquakes expected

By Wannapa Khaopa

The Nation

Thai academics expressed concerns about the more severe and frequent earthquakes expected to shake the Earth in the future, while others warned people to beware even if they did not live near active faults.

BANGKOK: -- Foundation for National Disaster Warning System of Thailand's chairman Smith Dharmasaroja said the huge quakes that hit Chile and Haiti early this year had been caused by strong movement of the Earth's crust and could probably affect faults nearby and lead to more frequent earthquakes.

For instance, he said, if big earthquakes occurred in neighbouring countries, they would affect Thailand's 13 active faults, making it prone to more tremors.

"The cumulative energy under the earth that can move faults is the main cause of earthquakes, and the colossal solar storm that caused a massive blackout in Canada and the US East Coast around 20 years ago, could have resulted in more severe earthquakes," Smith said.

Over the past few years, people have heard about recent earthquakes in several countries and reports about small tremors this month in Kanachanaburi raised their concerns.

In an interview with Channel 3, Smith talked about the huge quakes predicted by Kongpop U-yen, a Thai engineer who works for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa).

He said Kongpop had sent him dates between July and October when he predicted that quakes of 7-9 Richter-scale magnitude would occur.

Assoc Prof Pennung Warnitchai, a lecturer at the Asian Institute of Technology and project leader of Seismic Hazard Assessment and Mitigation of Seismic Risk in Thailand, said residents in Kanchanaburi and provinces in the North should not just beware of the areas on active faults, but also areas nearby.

"There are lots of blind faults hidden in the active faults that can cause quakes of 5 to 6 Richter-scale magnitude, and if they occur in areas where people live, there will be huge damages. People are wrong to believe that only active faults can cause seismic activity. They should not overlook blind faults. People in Kanchanaburi's Tha Muang and Muang districts will probably suffer earthquakes even though they are located far from two of the 13 active faults," Pennung added.

Adichat Surinkhum, a senior geological expert at the Department of Mineral Resources, warned people to not settle in areas facing the risk of earthquakes. "I've been told that people are moving to live in risky areas. They shouldn't do this," he said.

He added that more than 100 small tremors, in magnitude of less than 3 Richter scale, occurred in Thailand every year and bigger ones of 3 to 5 Richter-scale magnitude took place 20 times on average, which were the same frequencies as 10 to 20 years ago.

Adichat, however, does not believe that a solar storm could affect the earth's structure and cause an earthquake.

However, both he and Pennung are calling on Thai citizens and the authorities to build homes and buildings that are able to resist earthquakes.

They also recommend that people visit the earthquake.usgs.gov website to learn how to brace themselves for possible quakes.

-- The Nation 2010-06-30

[gotlost]

Predict Quakes? Who does this guy think he is JC.

[mahtin]

Predict Quakes? Who does this guy think he is JC.

Guy Noy, or chicken little, I think.

Mr Smith recently said during a TV interview that a solar eclipse was due to occur on June 12 as a result of the alignment of the Earth, the moon and the sun.

He said the alignment would release considerable cumulative energy, which could affect the Earth. Mr Smith, quoting Mr Kongpop, said the phenomenon would have a direct impact on the Earth in the forms of climate disruption, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

As to which part of the world would be affected by the disasters, Mr Kongpop said that depended on the time the sun unleashed its energy.

It was hard to exactly locate the target area as the Earth revolved around the sun, he said.

[ThaiAdventure]

This is the same guy that predicted 7.0-8.5 eartchquakes (and sunami) on the 12th of June during the eclipse because "the alignment would release considerable cumulative energy, which could affect the Earth".

This was the really funny bit though.

"As to which part of the world would be affected by the disasters, Mr Kongpop said that depended on the time the sun unleashed its energy"

It was hard to exactly locate the target area as the Earth revolved around the sun

.

By the way. He's a microwave semiconductor engineer so he uses a Gallium Arsenide ball instead of the usual crystal ones so he must be good

[Thai at Heart]

Just when you thought there was an academic who seems to talk reason, you get let down (Porntip and her GT2000 moment). If I remember, Smith was the person who had campaigned for better planning for tsunamis and the such.

Then you find out, he is using the alignment of the moon and the sun to predict earthquakes.

[gotte]

Just when you thought there was an academic who seems to talk reason, you get let down (Porntip and her GT2000 moment). If I remember, Smith was the person who had campaigned for better planning for tsunamis and the such.

Then you find out, he is using the alignment of the moon and the sun to predict earthquakes.

Actually if you remember on the 13th at 00. something there was an earthquake very close to the old one from 2006 that created the boxing day tsunami. Maybe he is not so wrong????

[junglist]

Witch asylum can I visit this sage in?

[gotlost]

Witch asylum can I visit this sage in?

This form.

[teletiger]

Maybe he's just reading from the HAARP timetable.

Regards.

[RickBradford]

the colossal solar storm that caused a massive blackout in Canada and the US East Coast around 20 years ago, could have resulted in more severe earthquakes," Smith said.

This guy must be a couple of coupons short of a toaster to posit a link between solar storms and earthquakes. Where's David Icke when you need him? Bring on the UFOs and the jellyfish crop circles.......

[angiud]

Edited June 30, 2010 by angiud

[doctormann]

There is a very small amount of truth in this but it is very small indeed.

When the earth, sun and moon are in alignment the gravitational effects of the sun and moon on the earth are additive and do create additional stress on the earth's crust. In the case of a solar or lunar eclipse the alignment is perfect and the effect is maximised, albeit still a very small effect.

What Khun Dharmasaroja seems to have forgotten is that the additive gravitational effect occurs every time there is what is termed a 'Spring Tide'. This happens twice every month at full moon and new moon in any case. There are also two 'Neap Tides' every month and these occur when the moon and sun are disposed at 90 degrees to each other, relative to the earth. In these cases the gravitational effect is at a minimum and the stress on the earth's crust is also minimised.

The effects are very small but, in principle, there should be a greater occurrence of earthquakes at new and full moon and especially at times of solar and lunar eclipses. I don't know if the data supports this or not.

DM

[slapout]

Do not move/live in to earth quake zone area, flood prone area, high heat nor extreme cold areas, dry/fire prone areas, frequent lightening strike areas, avalanche zones and that is just a few of the natural unsafe areas. Add the man made dangerous zones to the earths surface area, those prone to disease and when is the first space shuttle to the safe zone? No, the shuttle is not 100% either so where is the bubble? I can only think of afterlife and from what I understand thats is potential hot box for some of us.

[bkkjames]

If the experts are rolling this stuff out now with every passing eclipse or when the moon is full, watch out for 2012  - I suspect a daily check of all building foundations will be in order.

Never mind a sinking fund for your future condo purchase, better get a collapsing fund.

[nikster]

All talk no action.

If they required everyone to build eathquake-proof for new buildings then that's one thing. It would make sense. But this... kinda useless.

Don't be too quick to dismiss gravitational effects on the earth's crust movements. Why shouldn't they have an effect? But, clearly, it's not the answer, or close enough to the answer to prove useful in predicting quakes. So it's just a theory that can neither be proven nor disproven.

[junglist]

up next U.F.O.

[chainarong]

Earthquakes will happen in just about any place on earth, so whats so special about Thailand,a Thai emergency service units, stationed throughout Thai would help, most countries have these services, they are specialy prepared for all emergency's, funded by the government,thats about all you can do.

[astral]

Good publicity, but not so sure about the science.........

Not to worry Thailand is prepared.

[astral]

Mr Smith recently said during a TV interview that a solar eclipse was due to occur on June 12 as a result of the alignment of the Earth, the moon and the sun.

He said the alignment would release considerable cumulative energy, which could affect the Earth. Mr Smith, quoting Mr Kongpop, said the phenomenon would have a direct impact on the Earth in the forms of climate disruption, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Are we back in the Middle Ages???????

Or this the run up to Disaster movie.

[Northwindhermit]

I enjoyed all of your comments above. Back in June, when this episode hit the news, I wrote down this engineer's predictions. As the months went by, I checked with the USGS website on worldwide earthquakes to compare it with his predictions. Because of major computer problems of my own during much of this time, I have probably missed many news items related to this stuff. Here is the record as I see it:

.

He (erroneously) predicted that at 05:00 on 8 July 2010 an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 to 8.0 would occur. He also predicted a magnitude 7.5 to 8.5 quake for 01:00 on 9 September; a 7.0-7.5 one at 17:00 on 21 September; and a 8.0-9.0 at 11:00 on 7 October. These never happened. As pointed out above, earthquakes of some magnitude are regularly happening somewhere in the world every single day, but one can check all his specific predictions against the record kept by the USGS.

.

The actually occurring very large earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude or greater that he missed but that really occurred during this time period were on the dates of 18, 23 and 24 July; 4, 10 and 12 August; and 3 and 29 September. His predictions failed completely, and yet few people ever check the facts and point them out. Journalists here in Thailand certainly don't seem to.

.

Pseudo-scientific claims should be exposed, systematically and irrefutably, for what they are. Are there any organized debunkers of paranormal claims here in Thailand? Back in the States we had the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of the Paranormal (CSICOP, www.csicop.org), a superb group of jolly rationalists. A similar org in Thailand is long overdue.

.

[pisico]

There is a very small amount of truth in this but it is very small indeed.

When the earth, sun and moon are in alignment the gravitational effects of the sun and moon on the earth are additive and do create additional stress on the earth's crust. In the case of a solar or lunar eclipse the alignment is perfect and the effect is maximised, albeit still a very small effect.

What Khun Dharmasaroja seems to have forgotten is that the additive gravitational effect occurs every time there is what is termed a 'Spring Tide'. This happens twice every month at full moon and new moon in any case. There are also two 'Neap Tides' every month and these occur when the moon and sun are disposed at 90 degrees to each other, relative to the earth. In these cases the gravitational effect is at a minimum and the stress on the earth's crust is also minimised.

The effects are very small but, in principle, there should be a greater occurrence of earthquakes at new and full moon and especially at times of solar and lunar eclipses. I don't know if the data supports this or not.

DM

I would putt my money on tectonic plates. The pressure and motion of water on the planet, although significant (the result of varying magnetic fields as the planets turn in their orbits) have not been identified as the main cause of tectonic plates shift. The Earth core is still an incandescent bubbling mass of Magma that exerts forces that move the plates on the thin Earth's crust of 75 km.

I would also wear a tin foil hard hat just in case I am wrong.

[jackr]

"The cumulative energy under the earth that can move faults is the main cause of earthquakes, and the colossal solar storm that caused a massive blackout in Canada and the US East Coast around 20 years ago, could have resulted in more severe earthquakes," Smith said.

Oh dear, someone needs to read a bit. The only thing solar winds will affect is electrical systems here. Earthquakes are purely within, ie, through convection currents in the magma. He should also bear in mind that quakes can be aftershocks from big quakes centuries before.

He is also completely off the mark regards Thailand's faults. 'Bigger Earthquakes', my bottom. What he should be saying is possibly more of the same earthquakes. This is not Californian territory where sticky San Andreas faults predominate; they are all mostly fluid, meaning they'll release before the tension gets too high... mostly 5s and 6s max. He's right about earthquakes triggering others, but again, we're not close enough to the PRFire to feel it majorly and smaller ones would be going off.

[haveaniceday]

Maybe he is after a Thai Gov Grant to come 'home' and be the local expert.

[RickBradford]

Pseudo-scientific claims should be exposed, systematically and irrefutably, for what they are. Are there any organized debunkers of paranormal claims here in Thailand? Back in the States we had the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of the Paranormal (CSICOP, www.csicop.org), a superb group of jolly rationalists. A similar org in Thailand is long overdue.

.

I'm afraid that most people worldwide, not just in Thailand, prefer the supernatural to the real -- it's more predictable and comfortable.

[BKKdreaming]

Can you send him over here to Los Angeles,

I would like to know when our next big one will be, I have not missed one yet and would need to fly home to keep that streak going

I did miss the last Riots in LA as I was in Germany then,

Cal Tech might hire him too !

BK

Edited November 1, 2010 by BKKdreaming