Thai Democrat Party Heading Into A Dark Storm

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Heading into a dark storm

By The Political Desk

The Nation

What will happen if the country's oldest political party, the Democrat, is broken up by court order? Here are a few scenarios as to what we can expect

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva denied yesterday the Democrat Party was mapping out long-term plans to cope with its possible dissolution.

With 9,000 pages against his party from the prosecutors arriving at the Constitution Court, though, his poker face could not dismiss the harsh political realities that were hitting home hard: the Democrats are now officially heading into a dark storm.

The immediate question is whether members of Thailand's oldest political party will be able to stay together if it is disbanded for allegedly abusing state subsidy, or for receiving illegal donations, or both. Party insiders have confirmed that the prospect of dissolution has created potentially serious rifts, but they believed the still pervasive clout of former party leader and ex-prime minister Chuan Leekpai would in the end manage to hold almost everyone together.

That leaves a far more complicated question of what to do if a guilty verdict comes. The answer depends on many factors, including when the ruling is handed down, how hard the punishment is, and whether an acting prime minister can dissolve the House of Representatives.

The worst-case scenario has a guilty verdict being delivered after the prime minister has dissolved the House (as part of his roadmap promise) and the ruling party has registered its election candidates. This would wipe out the Democrats from that election and the party, for the first time, would have no representation in Parliament.

Few believe the Constitution Court would be cruel enough to wait until the House is dissolved and election candidacy registered to hand down a party dissolution verdict. However, the possibility of annihilation is worrying some Democrats anyway. Pre-empting this nightmare scenario calls for the Democrats to join a new party whenever the House is dissolved prior to a Constitution Court verdict.

Abhisit always insisted that he would not prematurely dissolve the House, although that was what every prime minister had said. And yesterday he tried to laugh off the significance of public prosecutors and the Election Commission ganging up against his party. He and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban denied knowledge about the setting up of a "substitute" party called Thai Khemkhaeng (Strong Thai), rumoured to be earmarked as the Democrats' new home in case of a party dissolution verdict.

Abhisit will likely choose to wait for the court ruling. In case of a guilty verdict dissolving the party and banning executives, including himself, from politics for five years, he would pin his hopes on Democrat power-broker Suthep fighting off Pheu Thai's efforts to grab power. If only a few Democrats are banned from politics, Suthep's work should be easy. But if all of more than 40 Democrat executives, who are also MPs, are banned as called for by the prosecutors, Suthep will need to pull off a miracle to keep the coalition allies together and possibly bring in some Pheu Thai defectors to prevent a switch in power.

But what if Suthep is unable to hold on to the allies? Then the only way to prevent a shift of power is to call a new election. Thai politics will therefore experience another controversial scenario. As Abhisit will almost certainly be banned in the event of a guilty verdict, the whole Cabinet will lose its status along with him.

The Cabinet might be able to continue functioning in an "acting" status, pending parliamentary election of new prime minister, but is an "acting" prime minister in an "acting" Cabinet empowered to dissolve the House? This is an issue that has no precedent.

If it is constitutionally confirmed that an acting prime minister cannot dissolve the House, the Democrats will be pretty much at the mercy of their allies, especially if too many executives are banned in a guilty verdict.

A less-frightening scenario is for the verdict to come after the next election. In such an event, the party can avoid fielding liabilities (including Abhisit) in the poll and get everything ready for other MPs to move to a new party if necessary. It won't be too difficult, but even this scenario belied Abhisit's smile yesterday.

-- The Nation 2010-07-14

[kissdani]

Suthep would be not included in the possible banned 40 executives?

How many of these executives are also MPs? Should an article labeled as ANALYSIS not provide such details?

With a guilty verdict comes also quite more than losing a few seats in the parliament and the risk of the small majority the government has. If the court call the self-painted clean and morally high nosed democrats guilty, they are not just get dissolved and come up with a new name, but as outcome the democrats will also have a severe damaged credibility. That part the article totally ignores.

[Pib]

Yes, Sir...we have solid political stability in Thailand!

[Thailand]

Those democrat politicians that are concerned that their pie may be about to crumble could do the Thai thing and switch to another party- Phue Thai perhaps.

[david555]

Those democrat politicians that are concerned that their pie may be about to crumble could do the Thai thing and switch to another party- Phue Thai perhaps.

And same timing is that by year ending the head chief army Anupong goes retirement , who will be his successor ? And in witch "pocket" he shall be ........? I think army chief in Thailand must be a good payed job........ !!!!.... all looks like a timing game

.......

[Robby nz]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

[david555]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

True for a big part ,but he is "damaged " and look in nature how wolves hunt together , until one is badly wounded , the hunting party teer that one in pieces , even when it happened their leader of the group

[kissdani]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

If the democrats are getting disbanded and Abhisit banned from politics, than will it be because they are GUILTY. Democrats violated the law.

Most honest and smartest PM??? What a bullshit. There are not many Thai people who like him at all or support this govt who can only stay in power with a rule by decree.

I don't know what is the recent election manifesto by the PTP, but the Thai electorate will vote for it or not and it is not the decision of a NZ countryside genius who has no clue about Thai politics. Face it.

[Insight]

Most honest and smartest PM??? What a bullshit. There are not many Thai people who like him at all or support this govt who can only stay in power with a rule by decree.

Are me and you even in the same country...?

What a bullshit.

[lowbo]

at this point, I'd support banning ALL existing MP's and executives from Thai politics for five years... no matter what party they subscribe.... need to flush the toilet on occasion!

[way2muchcoffee]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

True for a big part ,but he is "damaged " and look in nature how wolves hunt together , until one is badly wounded , the hunting party teer that one in pieces , even when it happened their leader of the group

I find it most interesting the reaction of the supporters of various camps here at TV.

The present government supporters at TV will say that the Democrat Party should be dissolved if they are found guilty. They understand that there are laws that must be followed and that violation of those laws has consequences. They will take this stance even though it may well mean that the government they support will be dissolved. So be it.

The redshirt supporters will say something along the lines of 'som nom nah'. It is interesting to note that these were the same people railing on about judicial coups, biased courts, and alleging all manners of malfeasance against anyone who dared stand in the way of the Thaksin government, or against any legal and legitimate actions taken against it. It seems the redshirt supporters are totally against party dissolution when it effects their party, but all for it when it effects the opposition. To my thinking this is an untenable and most hypocritical position to hold.

Edited July 14, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[animatic]

One of the main issues is;

Can the 2007 law be retroactively applied to something from 2005...

Most legal opinions would most likely say;

An action must be tried based on THE LAW AT THE TIME OF THE INCIDENT.

Unless a NEWER law is passed saying specifically that it is retroactive to a specific date,

then it did not exist at the time of the infraction and can not be applied.

This hypothetical retroactive law would also need to be vetted as constitutional or not,

before any final determination can be made.

So if this is correct, as in most nations it would be,

then at most party dissolution and no 5 year bans.

Start a new party and keep going.

Another issue is:

What did they know and when did they know it.

If the leadership knew nothing about it, how can they be blamed for it?

Still another issue;

is from WHICH ACCOUNT did those too small campaign posters get paid from?

If from an account where the EC contribution rested, then it might be called misused,

if from a different account, then all the EC funds would have been used properly and nothing is illegal.

Too small campaign posters...

This certainly is one of the stupidest reasons to dissolve a party I have ever heard of....

Letter of the law misapplied or not, this is ludicrous.

Edited July 14, 2010 by animatic

[kissdani]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

True for a big part ,but he is "damaged " and look in nature how wolves hunt together , until one is badly wounded , the hunting party teer that one in pieces , even when it happened their leader of the group

I find it most interesting the reaction of the supporters of various camps here at TV.

The present government supporters at TV will say that the Democrat Party should be dissolved if they are found guilty. They understand that there are laws that must be followed and that violation of those laws has consequences. They will take this stance even though it may well mean that the government they support will be dissolved. So be it.

The redshirt supporters will say something along the lines of 'som nom nah'. It is interesting to note that these were the same people railing on about judicial coups, biased courts, and alleging all manners of malfeasance against anyone who dared stand in the way of the Thaksin government, or against any legal and legitimate actions taken against it. It seems the redshirt supporters are totally against party dissolution when it effects their party, but all for it when it effects the opposition. To my thinking this is an untenable and most hypocritical position to hold.

Dream vs. reality.

Present govt supporters at TVF still come up with silly unfounded lines like most honest and smartest PM instead of accepting possible guilt.

Furthermore the present govt supporters at TVF starting out of the blue a straw-man attack against the reds or the PTP or Thaksin even though all these groups or persons have nothing to do with the topic 'possible dissolution of the Democrat party'.

To my thinking this is an untenable and most hypocritical position to hold.

[Insight]

The reds on this forum who are salivating over the possible banning of the Dems should remeber that their own party the PTP is the second reincarnation of its two banned predisessers TRT and PPP which seem to have survived under the new guise.

It would indeed be a shame if Abhisit were not given a chance to show what he can do for this country.

So far he has shown himself to be the most honest and smartest PM this country has seen in a long while and is probably the only chance this country has of getting out of the mess left by those who have gone before and the reds.

If Thaksin ever got back it would be a complete disaster for the country as he went all out for revenge and to recoup his losses.

PTP have shown by their recent by-election manifesto of "bring back Thaksin, pardon everyone in the reds and yellows, bring back 30B health scheme (now free) and reinstate the village fund (1 millB to each village just before an election)that they have no ideas on running the country without the big boss.

True for a big part ,but he is "damaged " and look in nature how wolves hunt together , until one is badly wounded , the hunting party teer that one in pieces , even when it happened their leader of the group

I find it most interesting the reaction of the supporters of various camps here at TV.

The present government supporters at TV will say that the Democrat Party should be dissolved if they are found guilty. They understand that there are laws that must be followed and that violation of those laws has consequences. They will take this stance even though it may well mean that the government they support will be dissolved. So be it.

The redshirt supporters will say something along the lines of 'som nom nah'. It is interesting to note that these were the same people railing on about judicial coups, biased courts, and alleging all manners of malfeasance against anyone who dared stand in the way of the Thaksin government, or against any legal and legitimate actions taken against it. It seems the redshirt supporters are totally against party dissolution when it effects their party, but all for it when it effects the opposition. To my thinking this is an untenable and most hypocritical position to hold.

Dream vs. reality.

Present govt supporters at TVF still come up with silly unfounded lines like most honest and smartest PM instead of accepting possible guilt.

Furthermore the present govt supporters at TVF starting out of the blue a straw-man attack against the reds or the PTP or Thaksin even though all these groups or persons have nothing to do with the topic 'possible dissolution of the Democrat party'.

To my thinking this is an untenable and most hypocritical position to hold.

Isn't your comment on the other thread about CRES a straw man attack?

[Rucharee]

Don't worry Mark.

The Yellow is behind you, watching your back.

The Yellow will not allow bad things to happen to Thailand.

That's why Yellow shut down the airports, for the common good of the Thai people.

[kissdani]

Instead of coming up with whitewash attempts and lame excuses the Democrats should prove that they are the morally better and welcome and applaud the dissolution and ban of its leaders as the consequences they have to face, even if there is only a doubt that they are not 110% clean. Good politicians don't come under suspicion by the EC for nothing.

They should also request much harsher penalties and punishment as the law actually demands. As everybody knows a dissolution and a ban is actually not a solution nor keeps the culprits off.

How about voluntary to agree to be be resettled to a permanent live firing zone? Contribute and re-paying to the society with wearing some bright colored shirts in an area where the countries best peace keeping snipers can practice and improve their work?

That would definitely bring any discussion about double standards to end, for ever.

[Rucharee]

Instead of coming up with whitewash attempts and lame excuses the Democrats should prove that they are the morally better and welcome and applaud the dissolution and ban of its leaders as the consequences they have to face, even if there is only a doubt that they are not 110% clean. Good politicians don't come under suspicion by the EC for nothing.

They should also request much harsher penalties and punishment as the law actually demands. As everybody knows a dissolution and a ban is actually not a solution nor keeps the culprits off.

How about voluntary to agree to be be resettled to a permanent live firing zone? Contribute and re-paying to the society with wearing some bright colored shirts in an area where the countries best peace keeping snipers can practice and improve their work?

That would definitely bring any discussion about double standards to end, for ever.

You mean "LIFE FIRING ZONE"?

[Thai at Heart]

One of the main issues is;

Can the 2007 law be retroactively applied to something from 2005...

Most legal opinions would most likely say;

An action must be tried based on THE LAW AT THE TIME OF THE INCIDENT.

Worldwide, I can't believe that any self respecting legal system would allow prosecution of an offence BEFORE the law was enacted. Could you imagine trying to apply such a concept anywhere else in the world with for example taxes? We change the law today to tax something you legally did last year? It is a ridiculous legal concept. We all know that ignorance of the law isn't a defence, but how you can be ignorant of something hasn't been created yet?

Ironically also, every soldier who has ever been part of a coup is on the street by this belief. Essentially the law is changed after the coup to legalise their actions.

Fortunately or unfortunately Thai law is not held by precedent, we will once again see the Thai legal system tie itself in knots debating something that will only leave the rest of the world scratching itself because TIT you know, and you don't understand. The mere concept that you can retrospectively punish something which wasn't illegal at the time is ridiculous. But then again TIT and obviously I don't understand. If doing something isn't illegal, how can you change the law and then punish retrospective actions? What a ludicrous legal concept.

Despite all the problems that dissolving the Dems would cause, if it happens the world won't cease to turn, and despite the fact that Abhisit would probably get caught up in the fallout, Thailand will continue on it's weird and wonderful path.

Would Korn be caught up in this too?

Edited July 14, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[ridgydidge]

The democrats are the chosen government by the elitests that actually control Thailand. You have to be a fool to even think there's a chance they will be removed from power!

After all the trouble it took to get them into power in the first place?? Laughable!

[Robby nz]

I find it difficult to understand how anyone in their right mind can still support the reds after what we all saw them doing.

From the storming of the APEC meeting with its aftermath of the attack on the PM.s car

Through the burning of buses in BKK to grenade attacks, calling for the murder of the MP and deputy PM, invading of the hospital, refusal to accept an offer of elections which lead to the need to clear them out by force then the burning of buildings.

And for what? Not democracy, doubt many of them know what the word means.

All to try to get back a convicted criminal who has been proven to have robbed this country over his years in power.

It would indeed be a dark day for the country if he ever got back in power.

And Maz if you haven’t seen your PTP party’s stance for the by-election in only 11 days time you haven’t been paying attention, go look it’s on this site somewhere. And if you look you will probably also find Jataporn’s comments that in the by-election campaign they will prove who really burnt the buildings in BKK.

If Abhisith isn’t the most honest and smartest PM in recent times tell me who is.

And while your at it tell us all about his crimes and lies, LH had a go but wasn’t very successful.

There is a possibility the Dems will be banned but then maybe not, hadn’t the EC decided not to proceed with the case till Jataporn or was it Arisaman burst into their office and threatened to burn the building and kill those inside?

[chuang]

Reading this forum I thought only Thaksin and TRT are corrupted....how come the Demorcats are in the picture.

[SomTumTiger]

One possibility that wasn't mentioned, and is the most likely in current times - The Dems will be found guilty, but will face a penalty other than party dissolution. A large fine being the most likely. Why? Because the penalty for fiscal shenanigans is not prescribed as party dissolution in the charter. Its only one option, depending on the severity.

[ThaksinKharma]

I find it difficult to understand how anyone in their right mind can still support the reds after what we all saw them doing.

From the storming of the APEC meeting with its aftermath of the attack on the PM.s car

Through the burning of buses in BKK to grenade attacks, calling for the murder of the MP and deputy PM, invading of the hospital, refusal to accept an offer of elections which lead to the need to clear them out by force then the burning of buildings.

And for what? Not democracy, doubt many of them know what the word means.

All to try to get back a convicted criminal who has been proven to have robbed this country over his years in power.

It would indeed be a dark day for the country if he ever got back in power.

Agreed, but I would also not want to forget the reds sloshing copious amounts HIV-contaminated blood around Bangkok. That really highlighted their social responsibility level.

As for dissolution, I'll await the outcome of the court's verdict in 2011.

Edited July 14, 2010 by ThaksinKharma

[hammered]

The interesting part of this is watching the manouvers between the behind the scenes power players and the democrat party. The power players have a nice stick over the Dems to make sure they dont get too uppity while the Dems stating they wont create a shell party is an interesting riposte leaving utter chaos in parliament as an option.

Anyone who thinks the current little power struggle is about two homogenous groups or any of the nonsense they bother propagandising us with is a bit niave and this little dance of disolution is a must watch for any serious observer of Thai poltics.

[dominique355]

Indeed, the main question is in my opinion, whether or not a law can have retroactive power.

In most countries, this question has been the focal point of many law studies, not only in criminal law, but mostly. And most lawyers agree that a law can be applied retroactively IF it is in favor of the defendant. (lex mitior).

Also most studies agree that a law cannot be applied retroactively if it is harsher to the defendant.

It would be interesting to have the opinion of a Thai lawyer on this subject. I will ask my colleagues and get back to this post.

[Thai at Heart]

Indeed, the main question is in my opinion, whether or not a law can have retroactive power.

In most countries, this question has been the focal point of many law studies, not only in criminal law, but mostly. And most lawyers agree that a law can be applied retroactively IF it is in favor of the defendant. (lex mitior).

Also most studies agree that a law cannot be applied retroactively if it is harsher to the defendant.

It would be interesting to have the opinion of a Thai lawyer on this subject. I will ask my colleagues and get back to this post.

Indeed. Aside from arbitrary law enforcement, now the spectre of retrospective law enforcement looms over Thailand.

A terrible precedent (in Thailand's legal situation) not to set.

[hammered]

Indeed, the main question is in my opinion, whether or not a law can have retroactive power.

In most countries, this question has been the focal point of many law studies, not only in criminal law, but mostly. And most lawyers agree that a law can be applied retroactively IF it is in favor of the defendant. (lex mitior).

Also most studies agree that a law cannot be applied retroactively if it is harsher to the defendant.

It would be interesting to have the opinion of a Thai lawyer on this subject. I will ask my colleagues and get back to this post.

Indeed. Aside from arbitrary law enforcement, now the spectre of retrospective law enforcement looms over Thailand.

A terrible precedent (in Thailand's legal situation) not to set.

Not unique. Nuremburg and more recently Saddam Hussein

No precedent in Thai law either as it is code based and not english common law based so any decisonj a judge makes today can be made differently tomorrow based on the merits of the specific case.

[chainarong]

There ain't much to choose from in the statesmanship area at present , one would hope status quo remains the same, if for only one reason and one reason only, Thailands.

[seri thai]

I don't think Thailands controllers want the "Democrat Party" to depart just now. Best option is to dissolve the Party and rename it.

"Undemocrat Party" hasn't been used yet and would probably gain widespread PAD support as a bonus.

It's a "nae win" scenario.

[seri thai]

Indeed, the main question is in my opinion, whether or not a law can have retroactive power.

In most countries, this question has been the focal point of many law studies, not only in criminal law, but mostly. And most lawyers agree that a law can be applied retroactively IF it is in favor of the defendant. (lex mitior).

Also most studies agree that a law cannot be applied retroactively if it is harsher to the defendant.

It would be interesting to have the opinion of a Thai lawyer on this subject. I will ask my colleagues and get back to this post.

Indeed. Aside from arbitrary law enforcement, now the spectre of retrospective law enforcement looms over Thailand.

A terrible precedent (in Thailand's legal situation) not to set.

Not unique. Nuremburg and more recently Saddam Hussein

No precedent in Thai law either as it is code based and not english common law based so any decisonj a judge makes today can be made differently tomorrow based on the merits of the specific case.

"Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose." That's how they run things here.

"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown"