Vote May Trigger Thailand Election Early Next Year

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Vote may trigger early poll

By The Nation

Opposition makes few inroads

If the ruling Democrats are buoyed by the outcome of Sunday's by-elections, they have done well in keeping the joy to themselves. That, though, could not prevent rampant speculation yesterday that a snap election may be called a lot sooner than had been expected.

Results of the by-election do not show significant shifts in voters' political allegiance. That is bad news for the opposition Pheu Thai Party, which had expected to capitalise on accumulating corruption scandals, the natural anti-incumbent sentiment as well as whatever backlash the Constitution Court's controversial rulings on the Democrat Party may have generated. To the Democrats, no big change is as good a piece of news as they can get.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Democrat power broker Suthep Thaugsuban yesterday declined to give a commitment on an election early next year. Abhisit's only response to the possibility was "Why not?" - a reply that in fact threw the ball back into the red shirts' court. In other words: If you cause no trouble in the next few months, we shall see.

Suthep denied that he favoured an election at a later date. But he cautioned those advocating dissolving the House of Representatives in the first quarter of 2011 to take into account Parliament's pending agenda on charter amendment.

"All I can say is there are a lot of factors involved, such as the constitutional-amendment process, and whether or not or how many organic laws need to be enacted. And there's the issue of whether the country is really peaceful at the time," the deputy prime minister said.

Abhisit insisted that a lot would be up to the opposition and its supporters, especially after the state of emergency is totally lifted. The government's policy in regard to areas still under the emergency would be clear by next week, he promised.

The prime minister welcomed recent peaceful rallies of the red shirts as a good sign. "The way things have been in the past two months is OK," Abhisit said, but he was quick to add that much still depended on the movement's leaders, who would have to make good their vows to use peaceful means to advance their cause.

"When we don't have to enforce special laws and can rely on ordinary laws to maintain peace and order, then the country will be ready for an election," Abhisit said.

The by-election results give the Democrats some hope of increased support in "red zones". Although the bigger backing is still far from enabling the ruling party to grab House seats in the Pheu Thai-dominated Northeast, it could be helpful when it comes to party-list votes. Even some Pheu Thai insiders admitted being worried about "state influences" in traditional red bases. Those influences include the financial clout of coalition parties, the growing impact of the government's "populist programmes", and the control of state mechanisms.

For the Democrats, the good sign came from Khon Kaen's Constituency 2 in particular. The party lost to a Pheu Thai candidate but won more than 36,000 votes this time, compared with just 7,000 three years ago. "It shows we can do better in the Northeast," said Vithoon Nambut, a party-list Democrat MP who directed the Khon Kaen campaign. He envisaged the ruling party running in all Muang (central) districts in the Northeast in the next election and taking as many votes from Pheu Thai as possible.

Whether or not Sunday's results can change the Democrats' mind concerning a proposed electoral system in which constituencies become smaller remains to be seen. The Democrats in general prefer the current "big constituency" model, but, as the outcomes suggested, Pheu Thai's rivals could have a better chance in the Northeast if constituencies were smaller.

The government, it seems, holds a slight advantage after Sunday's by-elections. But does that mean a snap poll will come early? That may depend on whether the red shirts can avoid giving the government excuses to stay on. As Abhisit said yesterday, if the red shirts had taken his offer before the bloodshed in April and May, an election would have taken place already and a new government formed by now.

-- The Nation 2010-12-14

[SamritT]

Mark will be PM again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again.

[kalbo123]

Let's see how how he does in Chiang mai, and the cities in Isaan...

Where still the most Thai people live..

[whybother]

Let's see how how he does in Chiang mai, and the cities in Isaan...

Where still the most Thai people live..

That only covers a third of the country. And some of the coalition parties do OK in some of those areas. Based on the previous election and recent by-elections, the PTP have no chance of an outright majority, and only a small chance of getting enough support from other opposition parties.

[hammered]

Let's see how how he does in Chiang mai, and the cities in Isaan...

Where still the most Thai people live..

Err his political allies just beat the Thaksin party in two out of three Isaan constitunecies and in one they lost the PTP put everything into winning including a top notch candiadte, every poweer broker in teh area and involved Thaksin himself. The results are a disaster for Thaksin and his party