As war spreads across the Middle East, one of Iran’s most feared proxy forces has remained unexpectedly quiet. Yemen’s Houthi movement has so far stayed on the sidelines — even as allied militias from Lebanon to Iraq join the escalating fight. The restraint has raised a critical question across the region: when — not if — the Houthis will enter the conflict. Iran has already retaliated against the United States and Israel with missiles and drones targeting bases, oil infrastructure and shipping routes. In a warning sign of possible escalation, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has hinted that new fronts in the war could soon open. A powerful proxy waiting for the signal The Houthis control much of northern Yemen after seizing the capital Sanaa in 2014. Backed by Iranian weapons and training, the group has built a formidable arsenal of drones, missiles and naval attack capabilities. During the Gaza war, the rebels disrupted global trade by attacking vessels across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, forcing shipping companies to reroute billions of pounds worth of cargo. Analysts say those same tactics could now be deployed again — this time aimed directly at oil tankers and strategic infrastructure, potentially sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Why the rebels are holding back Experts say the hesitation is strategic rather than ideological. Houthi leaders fear assassination strikes, internal divisions inside Yemen and shrinking weapons supplies after months of previous attacks. US and Israeli intelligence pressure has also reportedly forced senior figures into hiding. Despite the caution, analysts say preparations for escalation are underway. Fighters are being recruited, weapons production expanded and reinforcements moved towards Yemen’s western coastline. A trigger point looming Regional analysts warn the Houthis could enter the war if Iran faces an existential threat or if Tehran decides to widen the conflict deliberately. If that moment comes, the consequences could be immediate. Renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping or Gulf oil infrastructure would threaten energy supplies and drag another volatile front into an already sprawling war. For now the Houthis are watching — but their “hands are on the trigger,” as their leader has warned. As other Iran‑allied groups are engaging in the Mideast war, Yemen's Houthis hold back
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