farang000999 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The following scenario: Greece defaults and triggers a series of defaults across Europe and very large stock market declines globally. Rush to dollar. Euro illiquidity leads to a stronger Euro. The Thai real estate bubble pops, prices decline. Thai gov prints money for it's populist policies amid a bad economy and to further weaken the Thai baht. Dream Scenario: USD - THB around 38-40, real estate prices down 20-30% from current levels, Thai stock market down at least 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apetley Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Aint gonna happen but keep dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
up-country_sinclair Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) If Greece defaults and there is contagion, the dollar and (eventually) the Euro would likely appreciate against the Baht. However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. Edited October 2, 2011 by up-country_sinclair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 yeah i said why i believe that would happen. thai stock market declines thai real estate bubble from loose lending becomes evident red shirts wanting a bone from their PM Thai gov enacts "stimulus" weakens the baht to strengthen the export market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impulse Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Euro banks and the US are so intertwined that you'd better own a lot of Chinese RMB if either one (US or Euro Zone) collapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chops Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 It's already happening. The dollar is going vertical. 38-40 is far fetched but 35 is not out of reach at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamora Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Main problem is that as long as this 'series of defaults across Europe' is going on, it can make the Euro depreciate due to the uncertainty in the EEC and fear of the future of the Euro as we know it. And who knows how long this could take? Secondly, the Thai government can't print money, the BoT can. The BoT is quite independent, and they are using inflation targeting policy, so there is no way they start printing money just to save the governments ass. Finally, the Thai real estate bubble, is not a bubble as we have seen in Europe and the USA. In Europe and the USA, we have seen a oversupply of housing compared to population. In Thailand, there is a oversupply of housing, compared to the population at present income level. But as Thais get wealthier and wealthier, more and more are looking for nicer housing, which in the future could support all the presently empty condos and house projects. The Thai real estate bubble, is a bit like the Chinese. There are over 60 million empty new condos and houses in China, but there are plenty of people willing to move in if they could afford it, but over the next few years, more and more can, and from a investors perspective, it is important to be the first one on the market, to catch all these new first-time buyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
givenall Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I am glad some isthinking of him/herself at the cost of everyone else misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 In response to OP scenario: Or Not. But dreaming of a USD - THB exchange rate of 38-40 is nice...almost wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 It's already happening. The dollar is going vertical. 38-40 is far fetched but 35 is not out of reach at this point. Can you elaborate on your first two sentances ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darrel Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The dollar is going vertical. It is? Holy s**t! They didn't mention that on Bloomberg last Friday. The truth is, in fact, somewhat different: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el jefe Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The dollar is going vertical. It is? Holy s**t! They didn't mention that on Bloomberg last Friday. The truth is, in fact, somewhat different: Chops was only looking at the past 2 weeks. Extrapolating that, USD/THB should go to 38-40 by the end of the year. If someone who's not dreaming believes that, I'll gladly take the other side of the trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montrii Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. One never knows, do one? When I was working here in tsunami relief, 2005, it was 44/1, around there, the whole time. I didn't personally experience it, but someone told me that for a time it was up around 50. And when I moved here a few years ago it was still around 36-37. So dreams are not necessarily as improbable as the lottery. It seems to me that 38-40 is not out of the question. But then, unfortunately, neither is 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montrii Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I am glad some is thinking of him/herself at the cost of everyone else misery Ah, well. Someone always gains an advantage, someone always loses advantage. But it's not usually to the extent of creating misery. When the baht was 44 to the dollar, I felt more comfortable, but the Thais seemed to be living about as well as they are now, didn't seem to matter much to anyone's lifestyle here that I could see. I try to take the ups when they come and roll with the downs. Show me someone who doesn't "think of himself" to some extent and I'll show you a very successful monk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaParent Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. One never knows, do one? When I was working here in tsunami relief, 2005, it was 44/1, around there, the whole time. I didn't personally experience it, but someone told me that for a time it was up around 50. And when I moved here a few years ago it was still around 36-37. So dreams are not necessarily as improbable as the lottery. It seems to me that 38-40 is not out of the question. But then, unfortunately, neither is 25. Probably the most accurate statement on currency exhange rates I've ever read. Although I have perfected a system to predict exactly when exchange rates will fall. It happens every time I need to transfer money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el jefe Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I am glad some is thinking of him/herself at the cost of everyone else misery Ah, well. Someone always gains an advantage, someone always loses advantage. But it's not usually to the extent of creating misery. When the baht was 44 to the dollar, I felt more comfortable, but the Thais seemed to be living about as well as they are now, didn't seem to matter much to anyone's lifestyle here that I could see. I try to take the ups when they come and roll with the downs. Show me someone who doesn't "think of himself" to some extent and I'll show you a very successful monk. The reverse is true too. I've never met a Thai who thinks that any farang has changed their lifestyle because the USD is now 30-31 instead of the 41 it was in Dec 2005. So using your theory, a USD/THB exchange rate of 25 shouldn't create any misery for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not. If you are looking at a better exchange rate here then hope that this Euro mess can be sorted out but Greece is like an engine that just keeps burning fuel as much as you can throw at it. They are unable or unwilling to take the pain for their rash lifestyle that continued unchecked even when they joined the Euro. They were always a suspect entrant and they are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludditeman Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Why not just dream of a civil war in Thailand, ethnic cleansing or invasion by Cambodia. All those events would cause a much greater drop in the Baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwasaki Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 If you are looking at a better exchange rate here then hope that this Euro mess can be sorted out but Greece is like an engine that just keeps burning fuel as much as you can throw at it. They are unable or unwilling to take the pain for their rash lifestyle that continued unchecked even when they joined the Euro. They were always a suspect entrant and they are not alone. I think Greece will default, and wouldn't be surprised to see Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to follow. Germany will join up with Russia and China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Why not just dream of a civil war in Thailand, ethnic cleansing or invasion by Cambodia. All those events would cause a much greater drop in the Baht. lol @ comparing a Greece default to ethnic cleansing. btw Greece will default one way or another. water does not turn to wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think Greece will default, and wouldn't be surprised to see Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to follow. Germany will join up with Russia and China.... ...and form an alliance with the Klingon Empire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Why not just dream of a civil war in Thailand, ethnic cleansing or invasion by Cambodia. All those events would cause a much greater drop in the Baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serenitynow Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think Greece will default, and wouldn't be surprised to see Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to follow. Germany will join up with Russia and China.... ...and form an alliance with the Klingon Empire Well, they've all got a bit of a gruff manner, so that makes a certain amount of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not. Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately... We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serenitynow Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 As should be perfectly clear to even the most casual market observers, the $USD is the opposite side of almost every trade on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a99az Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Aint gonna happen but keep dreaming. Look again, think again. It just could but ............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not. Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately... We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well... lol what are you talking about? yes if we have deflation that is bad for all asset classes besides CASH. anyways we shall see if they can play musical chairs for eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 As should be perfectly clear to even the most casual market observers, the $USD is the opposite side of almost every trade on earth. except if it is 2008 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not. Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately... We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well... lol what are you talking about? yes if we have deflation that is bad for all asset classes besides CASH. anyways we shall see if they can play musical chairs for eternity. Deflation??? What a b__s___ We are talking about a massive Recession if Greece goes bust... we are talking about a massiv loss of Cash generated by European economies... We are talking about Inflation when the Central banks worldwide put more and more money into the market in order to keep the system running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 If there is a Greek default and that would be no surprise, Europe and maybe others are going to have to get into the pockets again. Should the very worst happen then the GBP and the Dollar would be negatively affected as well, as has been mentioned they are intertwined whether we like it or not. Absolutely true... and if that would happen, unemployment would go up through the roof, their would be a worldwide financial crisis... and no Europeans / Americans would anymore be able to satisfy their investments in Thailand and those would go broke also... and no tourists would anymore be coming (we have seen the decline in tourists in 2008/9)... so the Thai Baht exchange rate would follow the Euro and $ almost immediately... We better hope that none of the European countries goes broke... even as Swiss, the impact would be a catastrophe to our country as well... lol what are you talking about? yes if we have deflation that is bad for all asset classes besides CASH. anyways we shall see if they can play musical chairs for eternity. Deflation??? What a b__s___ We are talking about a massive Recession if Greece goes bust... we are talking about a massiv loss of Cash generated by European economies... We are talking about Inflation when the Central banks worldwide put more and more money into the market in order to keep the system running.... did u miss 2008? they did not jump straight into money printing there is a period of necessary deflation where CASH will be king and everything will be getting sold including gold to meet margin calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
.thumb.jpg.bc523c85a8d558dbc282dca7a2e602c9.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now