Pigs Prices Down- Muck Or Money

IsaanAussie · October 9, 2011

Ok Guys,

Who has been affected by the announced price reduction for pigs and pork? Supposed 79 baht per kg live and 145/kg pork around here.

Isaan Aussie

andycrosby · October 9, 2011

I thought the price would come down every man and his dog have been putting pig sheds up for the last few months.

IsaanAussie · October 10, 2011

I hope someone can confirm this information, hopefully as wrong:

The average price source information.

Ratchaburi 67.00 (-3)

Nakhon Pathom 67.00 (-3)

Chachoengsao 67.00 (-3)

Chonburi 67.00 (-3)

Northeast 65.00 (-5)

Chiang Mai 68.00 (-4)

Sriracha 67.00 (-3)

Surat Thani 75.00 (0)

Songkhla 75.00 (0)

Piglet 2,000.00 +-66.00

Edited October 10, 2011 by IsaanAussie

RedBullHorn · October 10, 2011

IT IS TRUE !!!

Chiang Rai been doing 65-67 for close to 3 weeks now, as usual, this is NOT the time to sell,

it is the right time to raise and sell them on January next year when the high price bounce back.

(Sourced info )

By the way, i sold my herd of 130 pigs in August at year high price of ฿ 80/kg, average weight @ 108kg/pig

Edited October 10, 2011 by RedBullHorn

billd766 · October 11, 2011

I paid 120 baht per kilo for 3 1/2 kilos of loin pork that I will hopefully turn into bacon at the end of the week.

sam505 · October 11, 2011

IA this couldnt come at a worse time as the pigs i got of you are about ready to sell!! so will we also see a drop in the price of food for them or will the mills keep the prices up?Also would you willing to share any prices that you are paying for your rations. We had got prices for rations from Krung Thai but they are a bit more expensive than Betagro Balance

IsaanAussie · October 11, 2011

IA this couldnt come at a worse time as the pigs i got of you are about ready to sell!! so will we also see a drop in the price of food for them or will the mills keep the prices up?Also would you willing to share any prices that you are paying for your rations. We had got prices for rations from Krung Thai but they are a bit more expensive than Betagro Balance

One thing is for sure Sam, pigs definitely leave their calling card, SH1T!

I have held the believe that a significant drop in price was overdue for some time, but I figured it would be down to between low to mid 70 range. I didnt see a correction as large as this coming, still it has and to be honest, I think the price is about where it should be. The next 100 kg pigs I will have ready will be around New Year and I may have to hold them a bit longer to see higher prices. You were apparently a couple of months too late to see the peak. There should still be a profit at 67 baht though so I would do one of two things. Hold the gilts until their second or third season then breed them, or sell at 100 kgs.

On the feed costs, I posted on Pigs 101 in September and they are still at the same price. I cannot see any reduction coming in feed prices. Forward guesswork for me is a rise of 20 baht per bag each six months. That's a bit more than average from my experience with Balance. Below is the impact on my feed bill for the next two years.

Herd Plan 11-11-2011Feed Increases.pdf

The impact averages about 185 baht per pig. So at 2,000 per piglet, 3,500 feed cost and an extra say 200 on that, you should have a cost of production average of around 5,700. If the current 67 baht per kg holds, then 1,000 baht gross per beast. That a 15% gain in less than six months or over 30% per annum. Better than bank interest!

IA

RedBullHorn · October 11, 2011

One thing i learned is to understand seasonal supply and demand, a lot of people jump into the wagon when they learned the profit is very good at 70-72 range and start to buy in piglets, what they didn't realise is the bubble is already about to burst ! Raising pig...the calender start on October and close on September the following year, as in annual profit taking.

The last i heard from my source, they're sticking them up 60-61 after the full moon.

Edited October 11, 2011 by RedBullHorn

IsaanAussie · October 23, 2011

Well things still havent turned around, still a lot of pigs to be sold. Though some current figures might help. the attached comes from the swine raisers association.

Pig Prices Oct 11.pdf

IA

Note: The northeast (isaan) is the lowest, it is also the second largest pig producing region.

Smile, things will dry up eventually. In the meantime do what you can for the pigs!

wandrinstar · October 23, 2011

C.P. control the price, no one else..

IsaanAussie · October 23, 2011

C.P. control the price, no one else..

To a very large extent that is true, their press releases have been known to be adopted by most. But not always, as it depends on supply and demand in many regional areas. There are many small non-commercial farms that trade a few pigs in the rural areas. These farms trade privately and are often under the CP and industry associations quoted averages. With the very large farms in the hands of the major 4 or 5 agribusinesses controlling more than 30% of the pigs in the country. There is another stream of Thai owned pig businesses that breed and then contract grow their pigs with small farmers. These often offer fixed price contracts inleiu of the market price without guarantee, that CP offers.

In short, six months ago I would have agreed completely but I have been studying this matter very closely and find that it is not entirely true. The seasonality of the business is much more an influence as RBH pointed out some weeks ago. There is a natural scheme of things, but it is usually CP that sounds the siren before any major drop. This is probably due to their knowledge of who, what and when the gluts don't match the demands.

wandrinstar · October 23, 2011

Whatever way you look at it, C.P. flood the Supermarkets, not theSMEs. Ive watched them for 30 years. Same with all their products.

IsaanAussie · October 23, 2011

Whatever way you look at it, C.P. flood the Supermarkets, not theSMEs. Ive watched them for 30 years. Same with all their products.

Yep, Cp, Betagro, Thai foods, and a few others. But not all of Thailand shop in supermarkets my friend. I have sold 600 kg of pigs to one customer in a day, the SME's aren't exactly sitting on their hands either. Betagro are developing product to sell in local markets.

Edited October 23, 2011 by IsaanAussie

wandrinstar · October 23, 2011

Six Pigs ain't going to worry C.P. , i see what you mean , but neither you or Crocodile Dundee, stand a chance should you ruffle their targets. You would be shut down.

RedBullHorn · October 23, 2011

You don't know what you're talking about... and i don't to waste my time elaborating.

RedBullHorn · October 23, 2011

Whatever way you look at it, C.P. flood the Supermarkets, not theSMEs. Ive watched them for 30 years. Same with all their products.

Yep, Cp, Betagro, Thai foods, and a few others. But not all of Thailand shop in supermarkets my friend. I have sold 600 kg of pigs to one customer in a day, the SME's aren't exactly sitting on their hands either. Betagro are developing product to sell in local markets.

just bare this in mind, we made what CP is today, really !

Edited October 23, 2011 by RedBullHorn

wandrinstar · October 23, 2011

Lost me there, i thought the Sharp Chinese made C.P. what it is today.

IsaanAussie · October 23, 2011

Anyway, back on topic. Has anyone had to sell pigs lately? What is the price doing to your profits?

RedBullHorn · October 24, 2011

Lost me there, i thought the Sharp Chinese made C.P. what it is today.

Yes, very true...and i'm Chinese

IsaanAussie · October 25, 2011

I am posting a few more statistics on the pinned topic for those interested. I have used Betagro numbers so we can leave the CP thing behind and just look at the market.

RedBullHorn · October 27, 2011

Sun Tze's Art of War :

Fear not the ladders they bring to attack the fortress, but fear the insider they had placed within.

Edited October 27, 2011 by RedBullHorn

humblefalang · November 5, 2012

Whatever way you look at it, C.P. flood the Supermarkets, not theSMEs. Ive watched them for 30 years. Same with all their products.

would you agree thatr i should spend near two million baht building a +/-700 pig farm to work for cp and get 4.50 per kilo,

free feed and meds, electricity and water at my expense

sounds good to me,

700pigs x average 100kg = 70.000

70.000x4.50= 315.000

that would be about 315.000 baht every 4 four months

deduct electricity 20.000/month

315.000-20.000x4=

235.000 in pocket

worth it or not.

what you guys think

Monkeypants · November 6, 2012

No, build a chicken farm

IsaanAussie · November 6, 2012

No, build a chicken farm

There you go, a no "clucking" around answer!

Include wages and costs of manure management etc... and your 60K per week will be halved at least. Assuming that you arent trying to live off it, it still means your return on initial investment would be about 5 years. Still think it is a good idea? CP are in business to make you rich.

Edited November 6, 2012 by IsaanAussie

humblefalang · November 6, 2012

No, build a chicken farm

i have thought about that too.

have not seen one in the area, no idea about investment and profit,

swissie · November 6, 2012

C.P. control the price, no one else..

Sorry, but who or what is C.P.?

Thanks.

Monkeypants · November 6, 2012

no idea about investment and profit,

Where are you located?

Profit depends on how many birds you are rearing, which in turn depends on how big the shed/s is/are

Investment 2 mill for buildings, and one big shed which should house about 20,000 birds, plus land costs,

Gross profit should be between 10/13 baht per bird, take out staff wages, electricity, gas, and water, costs about 3 baht per bird, nett between 7/10 baht per bird.

Approx 40 day rearing, 20 day cleaning, total 60 days, therefor 6 paydays a year.

We have a few years experience to be able to achieve those numbers, and are still learning,Come have a look if you wish.

It looks good on paper, but you need know your flock, and know how to deal with heat stress, humidity, temperature fluctuations between day and night, co2 and ammonia, wind chill effects, and the age in days of your birds.

If I haven't put you off yet, here a couple of links for you

http://www.cobb-vant...ts/Cobb700.aspx

click on literature on the right handside of the page, and download a management guide to give you an idea of what I am saying.

The Cobb 700 is supplied by Saha Farms who we have a contract with to rear the birds

http://www.sahafarms.com/main.php

Sorry IA

Back on topic

Edited November 6, 2012 by Monkeypants

Monkeypants · November 6, 2012

Sorry, but who or what is C.P.?

In this context

http://www.cpthailand.com/en/our_business/agro_industry_and_food.aspx

humblefalang · November 7, 2012

no idea about investment and profit,

Where are you located?

Profit depends on how many birds you are rearing, which in turn depends on how big the shed/s is/are

Investment 2 mill for buildings, and one big shed which should house about 20,000 birds, plus land costs,

Gross profit should be between 10/13 baht per bird, take out staff wages, electricity, gas, and water, costs about 3 baht per bird, nett between 7/10 baht per bird.

Approx 40 day rearing, 20 day cleaning, total 60 days, therefor 6 paydays a year.

We have a few years experience to be able to achieve those numbers, and are still learning,Come have a look if you wish.

It looks good on paper, but you need know your flock, and know how to deal with heat stress, humidity, temperature fluctuations between day and night, co2 and ammonia, wind chill effects, and the age in days of your birds.

If I haven't put you off yet, here a couple of links for you

http://www.cobb-vant...ts/Cobb700.aspx

click on literature on the right handside of the page, and download a management guide to give you an idea of what I am saying.

The Cobb 700 is supplied by Saha Farms who we have a contract with to rear the birds

http://www.sahafarms.com/main.php

Sorry IA

Back on topic

i live between khon kaen and kalasin

i will look at links,

thanks

swissie · November 7, 2012

In free markets, where prices are allowed to fluctuate according to supply and demand, there is something like the Hog-Cycle.

- Hog prices are low, little or no profit can be made with hogs = So folks are getting out of the hog-business. This will have the effect, that hog prices will recover. After about 1 1/2 years, hog prices will be "high" again, with the result, that everyone including his uncle will be back in the hog business again. Due to the ensuing oversupply, hog prices are headed for the cellar again. And the game starts anew.

Ergo: Anticyclical behaviour on the side of the hog producer is a must. And: The so called "Hog-Corn Ratio" (when the underlying main feed is corn) should be observed at all times. The H/C Ratio is a rough measuring stick as far as the profitability of raising hogs is concerned. (Can be Googled, I am sure).

As I said, this applies for "free markets" only. I don't kwow if all of this is applicable to Thailand.

Cheers.

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