As Thailand Floods Spread, Experts Blame Officials, Not Rains

[SICHONSTEVE]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

"The main factors, they say, are deforestation, overbuilding in catchment areas, the damming and diversion of natural waterways, urban sprawl, and the filling-in of canals, combined with bad planning. Warnings to the authorities, they say, have been in vain".

The government is clearly to blame for the situation we have now.

I can remember that when we had the floods in the South earlier in the year some TV posters (red's and Thaksin supporters) were blaming Abhisit for the problems (deforestation especially) even after I happened to mention the fact that he had only been in office for about 2 years - using that logic then these problrms must be blamed on Yingluck and her Pheu Thai led government for not preventing greedy landlords from deforestating the lands surrounding mountains as they are the government upon who's watch this disaster has happened!!!!

Completely flawed logic I know and of course I don't blame the incumbent government - the point I'm trying to make is this illustrates just how STUPID their argument was on trying to pin all the problems on Abhisit and the Democrats back then!!!!.

Be fair, it's not just this government, it's the fault of successive governments.

Yes!!! I agree!!!! but just how many of those governments in the past 2 or 3 decades have been Democrat oriented ones?????

[Just1Voice]

I'm just saying the officials don't really have a reason to make Thailand a better place.

I wouldn't go so far in saying that they are uneducated but I think they just have their priorities wrong.

If these officials would care less about themselves and more about the country just a little bit Thailand would be a wonderful place.

Therein lies the crux of not only this particular flood, but with a multitude of "problems" throughout Thailand, both past and present. For far too many years the government, regardless of which political party, has never really been "for the people", but only for the enrichment of themselves. Until/unless this changes, the people of Thailand will continue to suffer and be at a loss for desperately needed things which would make them and their lives better off, and this country a much better place.

The other problem is "Thai Pride" and "face". In regards to this particular flood, I look at the photos, read the stories, and think to myself: "This didn't have to happen." There are countries such as Holland, and others, who have learned effective ways to prevent such an event from happening, or to at least minimize the damage, which Thailand could learn from, and who would be happy to come in and offer their expertise. However, with the "superior people" attitude, and the "loss of face" they feel they would endure from asking others for help, this won't happen. To the "powers that be", the loss of face is much higher on the scale of what is important than the loss of lives and property.

This country has incredible potential for a lot of things. Unfortunately, for reasons which are blatantly obvious to the rest of the world, it continues to backslide, falling behind many of it's neighbors which it used to scoff and scorn at.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

"The main factors, they say, are deforestation, overbuilding in catchment areas, the damming and diversion of natural waterways, urban sprawl, and the filling-in of canals, combined with bad planning. Warnings to the authorities, they say, have been in vain".

The government is clearly to blame for the situation we have now.

I can remember that when we had the floods in the South earlier in the year some TV posters (red's and Thaksin supporters) were blaming Abhisit for the problems (deforestation especially) even after I happened to mention the fact that he had only been in office for about 2 years - using that logic then these problrms must be blamed on Yingluck and her Pheu Thai led government for not preventing greedy landlords from deforestating the lands surrounding mountains as they are the government upon who's watch this disaster has happened!!!!

Completely flawed logic I know and of course I don't blame the incumbent government - the point I'm trying to make is this illustrates just how STUPID their argument was on trying to pin all the problems on Abhisit and the Democrats back then!!!!.

And you think that two years as Prime Minister is not long enough to get off hisbackside and do something about thisannual problem? But then I suppose he was waiting for instructions from his friends before he could act.

Sorry!! Don't understand your last point and Abhisit DID get off his backside and do something about it (he made numerous visits to the South when we had floods down here earlier in the year (twice to Khanom in Nakhonsithammarat alone to talk to and comfort the local people))!!!

What did Yingluck do??? she went traipsing around Asia (in alphabetical order)!!! and occasionally popped out (only recently) in her helicopter to gain some air-time (on the TV and and in-the-air) as well as for "publicity stunt" purposes (something she is mastering so well I can see) - must get it from her fugitive brother .

I see a pro-red sympathiser "ex-superstar actor/singer" reporter on the Thai news yesterday present a food parcel to an old Thai lady affected by the floods. She was overcome with emotion, cryiing, and simply couldn't stop thanking him (and Yingluck)??? waiing him incessantly with tears streaming down her face and he had a big smile on his face as it had achieved the desired effect. She even got a free helicopter ride into the bargain as a reward for playing into his hands with his "so-called" samaritan ACT. This whole pathetic scene simply made me want to puke, it was so cringe-worthy and put on!!!!.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

"The main factors, they say, are deforestation, overbuilding in catchment areas, the damming and diversion of natural waterways, urban sprawl, and the filling-in of canals, combined with bad planning. Warnings to the authorities, they say, have been in vain".

The government is clearly to blame for the situation we have now.

I can remember that when we had the floods in the South earlier in the year some TV posters (red's and Thaksin supporters) were blaming Abhisit for the problems (deforestation especially) even after I happened to mention the fact that he had only been in office for about 2 years - using that logic then these problrms must be blamed on Yingluck and her Pheu Thai led government for not preventing greedy landlords from deforestating the lands surrounding mountains as they are the government upon who's watch this disaster has happened!!!!

Completely flawed logic I know and of course I don't blame the incumbent government - the point I'm trying to make is this illustrates just how STUPID their argument was on trying to pin all the problems on Abhisit and the Democrats back then!!!!.

What I am saying is: stop pointing fingers! It is EVERYBODIES responsibility to learn from THIS disaster and finally DO something!

NOT according to those pro-Thaksin (anti-Abhisit) supporters IT WASN'T!!!!! Why should it be different now???? please answer me that .

Edited October 14, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[ginjag]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

"The main factors, they say, are deforestation, overbuilding in catchment areas, the damming and diversion of natural waterways, urban sprawl, and the filling-in of canals, combined with bad planning. Warnings to the authorities, they say, have been in vain".

The government is clearly to blame for the situation we have now.

I can remember that when we had the floods in the South earlier in the year some TV posters (red's and Thaksin supporters) were blaming Abhisit for the problems (deforestation especially) even after I happened to mention the fact that he had only been in office for about 2 years - using that logic then these problrms must be blamed on Yingluck and her Pheu Thai led government for not preventing greedy landlords from deforestating the lands surrounding mountains as they are the government upon who's watch this disaster has happened!!!!

Completely flawed logic I know and of course I don't blame the incumbent government - the point I'm trying to make is this illustrates just how STUPID their argument was on trying to pin all the problems on Abhisit and the Democrats back then!!!!.

And you think that two years as Prime Minister is not long enough to get off hisbackside and do something about thisannual problem? But then I suppose he was waiting for instructions from his friends before he could act.

And of course there is your road runner K. Thaksin over say 10 years. NOWT. your talking out of yours-with respect.

[ResX]

The obvious simple thing that could have been done and could be every year is to release water from behind dams at an earlier point rather than wait until everything is full and then release huge deluges all at the same time

Actually we have done this for our major hydroelectric reservoirs about 5 years ago. In 2009 we have successfully captured the biggest flood in 50 years. Not even a drop of water lost through spillage. We were making additional money worth USD 7million since we managed to store flood water more than 500million cubic meter (Half of the volume of water that troubled you currently). Obviously ordinary citizen may not realize our ingenuity since they took for granted that the flood should not be there in the first place. Doing the job like this you have to bear with the fact that if you perform your job perfectly well nobody realize that you exist. Next time when you fail people will start to know more about you so that they can channel their anger.

You almost get it right in term of overall concept. In reality, it is much more difficult. Let me ask you one question. How low that you think the dams water levels shall be kept before the next monsoon? Too low you ends up having no water for your purposes. Too high will increase the risk of flooding. It is very tricky business. Nevertheless as you said, it can be done. We have done it.

Wow, spoken like the Thai representative to the International Commission on Large Dams. Nonetheless, you encapsulate the mythology of multi-purpose dams, especially when it comes to flood management. Somchi wants to make sure he gets his kickbacks for all the extra power due to the high pool level so as the money comes in from the additional hydropower, the risk of miscalculation grows. Thailand's not the first place this has happened, and likely won't be the last. Hopefully the Chinese don't play the same game of roulette with the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze.

Nonetheless, despite being multi purpose dams, when the rains come, the priority must ALWAYS be given to flood management. We may never know how close they may have come to the dams overtopping and potentially collapsing. They may have gotten very lucky. In fact it's most likely that it was not until that point that the spillways were opened. They got greedy and a whole section of the country now has to pay. There is absolutely no other way to frame it: bad judgement.

It happened in my country some years ago in hydro power generations. Until a group of engineers that (included me) worked it out to strike balance between the need for reliable hydro power generation and creating additional buffer for flood control. Surprisingly we get more money by doing so since the number of spillage events has drastically reduced from 4 in 25 years (The previous strategy) to once in 50 years as per the new flood defensive strategy.

Your Bhumibol and Sirikit reservoirs can store water up to the maximum of close to 18billion m3. (I have been to both of the reservoirs about 10 years ago). From my internet readings I can conclude the recent flood event was made even worse by less than 1billion m3 of water that were released from these two reservoirs. I might be wrong with this figure but this is what it appeared to be. So you can see that there is still room for improvement the way these two flood control structures to be used to mitigate flood. Basically the design of the reservoirs have already accounted for the need of water for various parties.

The hydroelectric reservoir that I used work on with regard to flood control has slightly above 6 billion m3 of storage volume. The biggest flood that we have successfully dealt with had peak flood flow of just below 4600m3/s for two days, or 22 folds higher than its average flow. I don't think Bhumibol & Sirikit have much higher peak flood flow as per mine during the recent flood. What I'm trying to say I think the water management aspect of your main reservoirs can be improved. At least I open the possibility to look for alternative besides changing the design or cursing somebody all the way when it comes to flood.

I feel sorry about what happen to your country.

"Nonetheless, despite being multi purpose dams, when the rains come, the priority must ALWAYS be given to flood management."

For a reservoir the size of Bhumibol & Sirikit, "when the flood comes" is pretty to late to take any meaningful action. It has to start at least 6 months ahead. In our case we start our flood control initiative since the last January this year anticipating the next monsoon in November. For one of our major reservoirs we plan to have 9m buffer anticipated the biggest flood in 50 years may strike again from Nov to Jan this year. Currently we have already have 10m buffer (Due to other reason not related to flood control).

[SICHONSTEVE]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

"The main factors, they say, are deforestation, overbuilding in catchment areas, the damming and diversion of natural waterways, urban sprawl, and the filling-in of canals, combined with bad planning. Warnings to the authorities, they say, have been in vain".

The government is clearly to blame for the situation we have now.

I can remember that when we had the floods in the South earlier in the year some TV posters (red's and Thaksin supporters) were blaming Abhisit for the problems (deforestation especially) even after I happened to mention the fact that he had only been in office for about 2 years - using that logic then these problrms must be blamed on Yingluck and her Pheu Thai led government for not preventing greedy landlords from deforestating the lands surrounding mountains as they are the government upon who's watch this disaster has happened!!!!

Completely flawed logic I know and of course I don't blame the incumbent government - the point I'm trying to make is this illustrates just how STUPID their argument was on trying to pin all the problems on Abhisit and the Democrats back then!!!!.

And you think that two years as Prime Minister is not long enough to get off hisbackside and do something about thisannual problem? But then I suppose he was waiting for instructions from his friends before he could act.

And of course there is your road runner K. Thaksin over say 10 years. NOWT. your talking out of yours-with respect.

To be fair, Thaksin couldn't find an easy way to make money out of it so why waste his time bothering about trying to help the Thai people over something as trivial (to him) as this!!!!:jap:.

[salween]

"Nonetheless, despite being multi purpose dams, when the rains come, the priority must ALWAYS be given to flood management."

For a reservoir the size of Bhumibol & Sirikit, "when the flood comes" is pretty to late to take any meaningful action. It has to start at least 6 months ahead. In our case we start our flood control initiative since the last January this year anticipating the next monsoon in November. For one of our major reservoirs we plan to have 9m buffer anticipated the biggest flood in 50 years may strike again from Nov to Jan this year. Currently we have already have 10m buffer (Due to other reason not related to flood control).

When I noted "when the rains come", I meant the beginning of the rainy season (May)--not the flood season which is now. Again, that's why planners can't have it both ways. The priority is either flood management or not. Nature will eventually get us. Non-structural approaches are the 21st way to go when it comes to flood management. Evan Bangladesh, which faces the worst flooding anywhere abandoned a $US 20 billon structural approach to flood "control" pushed by the World Bank in favor of the non-structural path. If you're in a floodplain, you have to accept flooding. Dams or not, the floods will come so plan and manage accordingly.

[mdechgan]

I am not saying that this flooding has been intentional necessarily, but I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Doesn't anybody remember that recent Thaksin Yingluck plan to build a multi trillion baht water project diverting water to new huge reservoirs in Isaan during the rainy season (much like they've already failed at "tried" before). Obviously this multi-trillion baht scheme would be very profitable for the powers that be. After all this flooding, I don't imagine they will get much resistance about going ahead with the plan now! It all just seems quite convenient.

I think a resevoir in the Isaan are to keep water during the dry season is a great idea.

Will it happen? Who knows?

Will corruption be involved? Sure.

Will government populist policy money pay for it? Sure.

And the Issan people will love the Shinawatra clan for it for generations to come.

How will the central and southern provinces feel about spending trillions on Isaan? Hell no! Protest, protest!

[Buchholz]

As the floods rapidly approach, just how many times larger is Bangkok than Ayuthhaya? Will there be a corresponding larger number of the below incidents?

In Ayutthaya, two groups of villagers are reported to have battled over a dike that protected one side and condemned the other.

As the unlucky residents dug at the dike to send the water toward their neighbors, a gunfight broke out, wounding one of the villagers.

In some places, according to news reports, troops have been deployed to protect the dikes.

Are Dike Wars the coming attraction?

.

Edited October 14, 2011 by Buchholz

[Buchholz]

The obvious simple thing that could have been done and could be every year is to release water from behind dams at an earlier point rather than wait until everything is full and then release huge deluges all at the same time

The idea was promulgated by Khun Smith, which earned him the label of a...

“I have tried to inform them many times, but they tell me I am a crazy man,” said Smith Dharmasaroja, former director general of the Thai Meteorological Department.

Idea of Khun Smith:

Mr. Smith, the meteorologist, said the flooding situation this year had been aggravated by bad water management.

“They miscalculated the water levels and did not discharge water from the dams early enough in the rainy season,” he said. “The dams are almost full now, so they discharge the water at the same time, and all the discharge water comes down to the low-lying areas.”

.

Edited October 14, 2011 by Buchholz

[serenitynow]

The obvious simple thing that could have been done and could be every year is to release water from behind dams at an earlier point rather than wait until everything is full and then release huge deluges all at the same time

Actually we have done this for our major hydroelectric reservoirs about 5 years ago. In 2009 we have successfully captured the biggest flood in 50 years. Not even a drop of water lost through spillage. We were making additional money worth USD 7million since we managed to store flood water more than 500million cubic meter (Half of the volume of water that troubled you currently). Obviously ordinary citizen may not realize our ingenuity since they took for granted that the flood should not be there in the first place. Doing the job like this you have to bear with the fact that if you perform your job perfectly well nobody realize that you exist. Next time when you fail people will start to know more about you so that they can channel their anger.

You almost get it right in term of overall concept. In reality, it is much more difficult. Let me ask you one question. How low that you think the dams water levels shall be kept before the next monsoon? Too low you ends up having no water for your purposes. Too high will increase the risk of flooding. It is very tricky business. Nevertheless as you said, it can be done. We have done it.

Wow, spoken like the Thai representative to the International Commission on Large Dams. Nonetheless, you encapsulate the mythology of multi-purpose dams, especially when it comes to flood management. Somchi wants to make sure he gets his kickbacks for all the extra power due to the high pool level so as the money comes in from the additional hydropower, the risk of miscalculation grows. Thailand's not the first place this has happened, and likely won't be the last. Hopefully the Chinese don't play the same game of roulette with the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze.

Nonetheless, despite being multi purpose dams, when the rains come, the priority must ALWAYS be given to flood management. We may never know how close they may have come to the dams overtopping and potentially collapsing. They may have gotten very lucky. In fact it's most likely that it was not until that point that the spillways were opened. They got greedy and a whole section of the country now has to pay. There is absolutely no other way to frame it: bad judgement.

It happened in my country some years ago in hydro power generations. Until a group of engineers that (included me) worked it out to strike balance between the need for reliable hydro power generation and creating additional buffer for flood control. Surprisingly we get more money by doing so since the number of spillage events has drastically reduced from 4 in 25 years (The previous strategy) to once in 50 years as per the new flood defensive strategy.

Your Bhumibol and Sirikit reservoirs can store water up to the maximum of close to 18billion m3. (I have been to both of the reservoirs about 10 years ago). From my internet readings I can conclude the recent flood event was made even worse by less than 1billion m3 of water that were released from these two reservoirs. I might be wrong with this figure but this is what it appeared to be. So you can see that there is still room for improvement the way these two flood control structures to be used to mitigate flood. Basically the design of the reservoirs have already accounted for the need of water for various parties.

The hydroelectric reservoir that I used work on with regard to flood control has slightly above 6 billion m3 of storage volume. The biggest flood that we have successfully dealt with had peak flood flow of just below 4600m3/s for two days, or 22 folds higher than its average flow. I don't think Bhumibol & Sirikit have much higher peak flood flow as per mine during the recent flood. What I'm trying to say I think the water management aspect of your main reservoirs can be improved. At least I open the possibility to look for alternative besides changing the design or cursing somebody all the way when it comes to flood.

I feel sorry about what happen to your country.

"Nonetheless, despite being multi purpose dams, when the rains come, the priority must ALWAYS be given to flood management."

For a reservoir the size of Bhumibol & Sirikit, "when the flood comes" is pretty to late to take any meaningful action. It has to start at least 6 months ahead. In our case we start our flood control initiative since the last January this year anticipating the next monsoon in November. For one of our major reservoirs we plan to have 9m buffer anticipated the biggest flood in 50 years may strike again from Nov to Jan this year. Currently we have already have 10m buffer (Due to other reason not related to flood control).

I just wanted to say ResX, that I for one (and I'm sure there are others) appreciate your posts very much. You seem to know your subject matter very well and nowhere in your posts did I see you say that dams are the ONLY solution to flood control. What's sad is, a person of your obvious skill/ knowledge set would never be able to rise to a level where you could affect outcomes here in Thailand unless you came from the right family or were willing to take bribes and kick a significant portion of those up the chain of command. If you don't mind my asking, where did you attend college?

[chaoyang]

This of course isn't limited to Thailand.

Is it me, or does there seem to be a quickening pace of natural disasters around the world?

[volk666]

Dr Smith doesn't give any specifics about what he said. to whom, and who called him crazy. Now it's his word against unnamed opponents.

Authorities have been sounding alerts for months now, Yongyuth, the Interior minister, was appointed as a head of a special panel back in August. On Sep 5 the meteorology dept issued highest level flooding alert but the bosses thought it was business as usual. Even when floods hit big time the govt was nowhere to be seen.

Who exactly told Dr. Smith he was crazy? Who did he talked to? And did people not listen to him? Was it because he talked to someone low in the chain of command, or someone right at the top? He makes it sound like absolutely everyone but him was siyying on their hands, which is unlikely. Is hebeing helpful in identifying the problem now? I think not, but he got himself in New York Times, congratulations. What effect do you think accusatory articles in foreign press have on people who have their hands with actual flood management?

Edited October 14, 2011 by volk666

[maidu]

Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that “increases in sea level are consistent with warming. Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.” The consequences of sea level rise are abundant: many millions of people will be subjected to floods, coastal ecosystems will be destroyed, and sea level rise will exacerbate freshwater constraints due to salinization of estuaries and groundwater supplies. Southeast Asia is not exempt from these dangers. The IPCC warns that “the megadeltas of Asia are vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise that could increase the frequency and level of inundation…due to storm surges and floods from river drainage putting communities, biodiversity and infrastructure at risk of being damaged. This impact could be more pronounced in megacities located in megadeltas where natural ground subsidence is enhanced by human activities, such as in Bangkok.”

Bangkok, Thailand’s capital city and home to over 10 million people, has been sinking 10 centimeters annually. The land subsidence, coupled with rising sea levels due to climate change, puts the city at risk of disappearing into the sea within 15 or 20 years, according to Smith Dharmasaroja, chair of the Thai government's Committee of National Disaster Warning Administration. from climate.org

[serenitynow]

Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that "increases in sea level are consistent with warming. Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003." The consequences of sea level rise are abundant: many millions of people will be subjected to floods, coastal ecosystems will be destroyed, and sea level rise will exacerbate freshwater constraints due to salinization of estuaries and groundwater supplies. Southeast Asia is not exempt from these dangers. The IPCC warns that "the megadeltas of Asia are vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise that could increase the frequency and level of inundation…due to storm surges and floods from river drainage putting communities, biodiversity and infrastructure at risk of being damaged. This impact could be more pronounced in megacities located in megadeltas where natural ground subsidence is enhanced by human activities, such as in Bangkok."

Bangkok, Thailand's capital city and home to over 10 million people, has been sinking 10 centimeters annually. The land subsidence, coupled with rising sea levels due to climate change, puts the city at risk of disappearing into the sea within 15 or 20 years, according to Smith Dharmasaroja, chair of the Thai government's Committee of National Disaster Warning Administration. from climate.org

If and when Bangkok "disappears into the sea", it will not be incremental. It will be sudden and irreversible.

[steveromagnino]

I think a resevoir in the Isaan are to keep water during the dry season is a great idea.

Will it happen? Who knows?

Will corruption be involved? Sure.

Will government populist policy money pay for it? Sure.

And the Issan people will love the Shinawatra clan for it for generations to come.

How will the central and southern provinces feel about spending trillions on Isaan? Hell no! Protest, protest!

Actually, no one in Isaan is willing to dedicate THEIR land to create such a program, and also there are some issues of pushing water up hills etc. And then at the end of the day, the rice they sell is currently a net loss to the tax paying portion of Thailand, with the crop pledging scheme....so really, it's a dumb idea (mostly) as typically there isn't enough water to go around; why waste a truck load of energy moving water to a semi arid area. The Shinawatras can afford to do nothing in Isaan anyway; they'll keep voting for them; all their schemes they have implemented are about expanding their voting base (first car, first home, grad wage) in the cities...not in Isaan.

Anyhow, for this year, it's been bad planning that has led to this problem. No weather forecaster can be right all the time; the time for blaming is long past regarding the early part of the rainy season.

However, the problem was a major one since July, and the government policy since then has been:

1. not talk about it at all (we weren't getting much media coverage until 3 weeks ago; some areas have been under water for 2+ months already) as they have been busy visiting abroad; addressing Thaksin related issues; trying to sort out 300b minimum wage/student wages/tablets/first home/first car policy since none of these programs are actually possible/practical to do, and this has taken all their 'processing power' and moved their eyes off the ball; also not helped by a PM that has never worked in the public sector and thus has not spent a lot of time looking at national issues proactively, but rather is focused on party policy issues first, with a little time for foreign affairs

2. rely on the private sector to solve distribution of food, medicine etc at the beginning; no govt assistance

3. even when the problem became critical to the neutral observer (but not to them) major political factions fought to not have their constituencies flooded (e.g. Suphanburi which used political credit in the PT led coalition to retain ability to hold flood waters out of large areas of the province) while politically the government didnt' dare to force operators to release more water 'in case' a month ago, as 'in case' is always only a probability and there are a lot of connected parties; the only deadlock breaker, the PM, didn't take action because it wasn't known at that time that the weather would be what it is now

4. even as the problem was becoming more apparent, PT still pushed through the crop pledge scheme, which will, unless there is yet another gift from the tax payers to the agrictultural sector, bankrupt many since they will not harvest and therefore don't get the big overpriced subsidy that is the mainstay of PT agricultural policy/popularity

5. Now that the problem is way too big for them to handle, instead of forming a war room with all major agencies in one place, and supported by the military; PT believe they can handle themselves, and have:

- instigated a boat scheme to push water downstream which defies gravity

- engaged in multiple media tours looking and pointing at dams, and visiting constituencies for photos

- multiple speakers with contradictory messages often given in panicked form

By refusing to declare a state of emergency, the too little too late approach has led to multiple areas that are receiving no aid; and other areas where people are profiteering because they have too much and are selling it. Most of the aid is from the private sector of NGOs, the government is still a minor player in actually delivering help of any sort of than a few tears for the camera. Aid is patchy, with lack of medicine etc and an abundance of rice, without ways to prepare etc.

PM - it's already almost too late, but anyhow what you need to do immediately is:

- declare SOE and engage military might to oversee and immediately push a universal program of aid to all villages and areas affected using all vehicles and personnel including food, water, medicine, security

- immediately form a squad that is continuously improving and maintaining water flow at every bridge and crossing point from Sukhothai south by clearing obstructions

- immediately and continuously clear every klong and river system from 5am - 3pm daily during mid to low tide

- form a single communication core similar to the red shirt protests last year; where the government had a single spokesperson and clear messages for all using all government mouthpieces (CH 11, Ch 9 etc)

- work with all parties to get Thailand through this disaster

Sadly, the PM will never do this because PT would rather listen to Chalerm and Thaksin's legal advisors, who right now would rather paint the military as the bad guys in a post coup environment, than to immediately and promptly assist millions of Thai people who are suffering from lack of food, disease, etc.

They are hoping this will pass, and then will attempt to claim credit for BMA's own success is saving Bangkok (at some expense to surrounding areas), and will blame squarely the Royal Irrigation Dept for obvious reasons, failing to see their own negligence in managing this issue.

Flood assistance to affected provinces has been a major story on every social media for the last 6 weeks....apparently we can read about managed press opps where the PM privatly cries or the Deputy PM cries in public for sympathy.

NO MORE PR> Give us leadership and do your jobs.

[WarpSpeed]

This of course isn't limited to Thailand.

Is it me, or does there seem to be a quickening pace of natural disasters around the world?

Yes there is I've noticed it as well, the severity has risen too. Those who like to dispute the global warming theories are IMO simply not paying attention. I see EVERYTHING that was predicted in that scenario coming true as explained but I also saw through Obama's naive or intended deceptive rhetoric which ever it was and the housing bubble long before they occurred so it takes an open minded abstract thinker with open eyes to the small changes to really absorb the more obscure signs around us every day..

[GazR]

Yeah...ahm...floodings during rainy season in Thailand. That has been going on since...what is the correct term, I am looking for?...oh yeah: FOREVER!

If you are talking about "floods", you always have to talk about "worst case scenario" and not "mai pen rai"!

But as long as rainforrest will be destroyed and replaced by the giant asphalt parking lot of an even gian'er industrial complex and no one gives a sh**...this is what you get.

Who is responsible? The rain? Yeah...now here is the deal: rain = being around for 4 billion years...

Politics, greedy people...basically all people, who just don't care...are to blame for the current situation.

Before blamming deforestation let have a close look on how your main reservoirs are operated and managed. If we allow the rainfall to create flood of this magnitude, probably it does once in 400 years. Maybe. What happens if you have basically normal flood flow that you have seen many times over the last 20 years plus the reservoirs releases and they were channeled through the same river paths?

As far as the flood is concern it doesn't really matter whether the water comes from rainfall or reservoirs releases. If the river bank is breached then, you have it.

There is one thing important that all of us shall learn. The flood control reservoirs cannot release water during natural flood period. It it does then one of these possibilities must be true: 1) The reservoir has inadequate design for flood control operations, or 2) The natural flood flow is higher then the expected maximum used by the designers. In your case I don't know which one is true. That is why I suggest please have a look at water management methodology for your main reservoirs. If the methodology is accurate then you will see clear strategy how the releases are done to circumvent the need to release during natural flood season.

Obviously, my opinion is basically similar with press statement given your ex director of your Irrigation Department.

Imagine this: You are in charge of a big dam and although you got a fast-track promotion because of connections rather than competence, you have been in the job long enough and are smart enough to have eventually grasped the requirements of the job. You know that your dam can't stay above 120% of capacity indefinitely, yet this is what your political masters are demanding. So you either get blamed for the flood or catastrophic dam failure. T.I.T.

[Just1Voice]

Mr. Smith says BKK might disappear in 10-15 years. No argument from me on that one. However, there was a famous soothsayer during the time of King Taksin, Rama I, who made 4 very distinct prophecies. let's just say the man has been dead on for the first 3. As for the 4th, it was that the area of what was then Siam where BKK now sits would, in the year 2555, "be swallowed by the sea and be no more." If the old guy goes 4 for 4, then sometime next year BKK and surrounding area will no longer be.

I'm sure there are a lot of people, myself included, who could come up with a few thousand humorous comments about that, but in reality the catastrophic damage and loss of life would be beyond comprehension.

So, personally, I'm hoping the old prophet goes 3 for 4 and is wrong about this one.

Edited October 14, 2011 by sbk
Please do not interject Royal Family into discussion thanks

[GentlemanJim]

Mr. Smith says BKK might disappear in 10-15 years. No argument from me on that one. However, there was a famous soothsayer during the time of King Taksin, Rama I, who made 4 very distinct prophecies. et's just say the man has been dead on for the first 3. As for the 4th, it was that the area of what was then Siam where BKK now sits would, in the year 2555, "be swallowed by the sea and be no more." If the old guy goes 4 for 4, then sometime next year BKK and surrounding area will no longer be.

I'm sure there are a lot of people, myself included, who could come up with a few thousand humorous comments about that, but in reality the catastrophic damage and loss of life would be beyond comprehension.

So, personally, I'm hoping the old prophet goes 3 for 4 and is wrong about this one.

So another soothsayer who knew nothing of the Ancient Mayans (one can only presume i know), also predicts 2012 as the year of destruction. Scary scary stuff

[WarpSpeed]

Will that be before or after April?

[salween]

Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that “increases in sea level are consistent with warming. Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.” The consequences of sea level rise are abundant: many millions of people will be subjected to floods, coastal ecosystems will be destroyed, and sea level rise will exacerbate freshwater constraints due to salinization of estuaries and groundwater supplies. Southeast Asia is not exempt from these dangers. The IPCC warns that “the megadeltas of Asia are vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise that could increase the frequency and level of inundation…due to storm surges and floods from river drainage putting communities, biodiversity and infrastructure at risk of being damaged. This impact could be more pronounced in megacities located in megadeltas where natural ground subsidence is enhanced by human activities, such as in Bangkok.”

Bangkok, Thailand’s capital city and home to over 10 million people, has been sinking 10 centimeters annually. The land subsidence, coupled with rising sea levels due to climate change, puts the city at risk of disappearing into the sea within 15 or 20 years, according to Smith Dharmasaroja, chair of the Thai government's Committee of National Disaster Warning Administration. from climate.org

Not only this, but more severe storm events for which the current flood management system (including dams) was not designed for.

[Johpa]

These floods are not once every 400 year events, more likely once every 50 year events yet with global warming increasing that frequency towards once every 20 years or less. There was a similar, although slightly less intense flooding some 20 years ago. Alas, a solution was presented that could, by law, not be debated or refuted, and all planning and discussion then came to a halt. The proposed Brobdingnagian pumps that would have never worked were never built and money was wasted upon an aircraft carrier and fighter jets where the skim off the contracts were far higher than building catchment basins, swales, and dikes.

[DocN]

I am not saying that this flooding has been intentional necessarily, but I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Doesn't anybody remember that recent Thaksin Yingluck plan to build a multi trillion baht water project diverting water to new huge reservoirs in Isaan during the rainy season (much like they've already failed at "tried" before). Obviously this multi-trillion baht scheme would be very profitable for the powers that be. After all this flooding, I don't imagine they will get much resistance about going ahead with the plan now! It all just seems quite convenient.

Aaaaaaaaah...conspiracy theories! Don't you just love it! Back in the place where I originally came from, a taxi- driver told me, that the WTC is still there...we just can't see it, cause the US has developed a technique like in the 'Matrix"! ...oh yeah...and he was stoned out of his eyeballs!

[DocN]

I think a resevoir in the Isaan are to keep water during the dry season is a great idea.

Will it happen? Who knows?

Will corruption be involved? Sure.

Will government populist policy money pay for it? Sure.

And the Issan people will love the Shinawatra clan for it for generations to come.

How will the central and southern provinces feel about spending trillions on Isaan? Hell no! Protest, protest!

Actually, no one in Isaan is willing to dedicate THEIR land to create such a program, and also there are some issues of pushing water up hills etc. And then at the end of the day, the rice they sell is currently a net loss to the tax paying portion of Thailand, with the crop pledging scheme....so really, it's a dumb idea (mostly) as typically there isn't enough water to go around; why waste a truck load of energy moving water to a semi arid area. The Shinawatras can afford to do nothing in Isaan anyway; they'll keep voting for them; all their schemes they have implemented are about expanding their voting base (first car, first home, grad wage) in the cities...not in Isaan.

Anyhow, for this year, it's been bad planning that has led to this problem. No weather forecaster can be right all the time; the time for blaming is long past regarding the early part of the rainy season.

However, the problem was a major one since July, and the government policy since then has been:

1. not talk about it at all (we weren't getting much media coverage until 3 weeks ago; some areas have been under water for 2+ months already) as they have been busy visiting abroad; addressing Thaksin related issues; trying to sort out 300b minimum wage/student wages/tablets/first home/first car policy since none of these programs are actually possible/practical to do, and this has taken all their 'processing power' and moved their eyes off the ball; also not helped by a PM that has never worked in the public sector and thus has not spent a lot of time looking at national issues proactively, but rather is focused on party policy issues first, with a little time for foreign affairs

2. rely on the private sector to solve distribution of food, medicine etc at the beginning; no govt assistance

3. even when the problem became critical to the neutral observer (but not to them) major political factions fought to not have their constituencies flooded (e.g. Suphanburi which used political credit in the PT led coalition to retain ability to hold flood waters out of large areas of the province) while politically the government didnt' dare to force operators to release more water 'in case' a month ago, as 'in case' is always only a probability and there are a lot of connected parties; the only deadlock breaker, the PM, didn't take action because it wasn't known at that time that the weather would be what it is now

4. even as the problem was becoming more apparent, PT still pushed through the crop pledge scheme, which will, unless there is yet another gift from the tax payers to the agrictultural sector, bankrupt many since they will not harvest and therefore don't get the big overpriced subsidy that is the mainstay of PT agricultural policy/popularity

5. Now that the problem is way too big for them to handle, instead of forming a war room with all major agencies in one place, and supported by the military; PT believe they can handle themselves, and have:

- instigated a boat scheme to push water downstream which defies gravity

- engaged in multiple media tours looking and pointing at dams, and visiting constituencies for photos

- multiple speakers with contradictory messages often given in panicked form

By refusing to declare a state of emergency, the too little too late approach has led to multiple areas that are receiving no aid; and other areas where people are profiteering because they have too much and are selling it. Most of the aid is from the private sector of NGOs, the government is still a minor player in actually delivering help of any sort of than a few tears for the camera. Aid is patchy, with lack of medicine etc and an abundance of rice, without ways to prepare etc.

PM - it's already almost too late, but anyhow what you need to do immediately is:

- declare SOE and engage military might to oversee and immediately push a universal program of aid to all villages and areas affected using all vehicles and personnel including food, water, medicine, security

- immediately form a squad that is continuously improving and maintaining water flow at every bridge and crossing point from Sukhothai south by clearing obstructions

- immediately and continuously clear every klong and river system from 5am - 3pm daily during mid to low tide

- form a single communication core similar to the red shirt protests last year; where the government had a single spokesperson and clear messages for all using all government mouthpieces (CH 11, Ch 9 etc)

- work with all parties to get Thailand through this disaster

Sadly, the PM will never do this because PT would rather listen to Chalerm and Thaksin's legal advisors, who right now would rather paint the military as the bad guys in a post coup environment, than to immediately and promptly assist millions of Thai people who are suffering from lack of food, disease, etc.

They are hoping this will pass, and then will attempt to claim credit for BMA's own success is saving Bangkok (at some expense to surrounding areas), and will blame squarely the Royal Irrigation Dept for obvious reasons, failing to see their own negligence in managing this issue.

Flood assistance to affected provinces has been a major story on every social media for the last 6 weeks....apparently we can read about managed press opps where the PM privatly cries or the Deputy PM cries in public for sympathy.

NO MORE PR> Give us leadership and do your jobs.

Abby...last year...same same...but different!

[MilesCh]

Much the government has done, yet so so much they haven't done. At the moment I'm watching this from afar although talking on the phone with friends weekly; shades of the political BS in the States.

[chaoyang]

<snip>This country has incredible potential for a lot of things. Unfortunately, for reasons which are blatantly obvious to the rest of the world, it continues to backslide, falling behind many of it's neighbors which it used to scoff and scorn at.

After living in Thailand for 14 years as a professional, younger man -- not on a retiree's pension -- I finally had to leave because continuing was not sustainable. For every step my wife and I made forward, it seemed we took two steps back.

That said, I don't see that any of Thailand's neighbors offer a much better ethical/cultural system for innovation or long-term sustainable opportunities. My experience in SE Asia is that other than Singapore all the countries are at best chaotic and at worst downright nasty when it comes to business. Which countries do you think Thailand is "falling behind?"

[maidu]

Has there been any mention of 'ram pumps' ? They work without fuel, but instead use the accumulated power of water lower down, to pump a relatively smaller amount of water, with a small 'head' (rise). I may not have described it well, but they work on small scale to pump water up and over berms, so it seems logical that they would work on a larger scale - thereby precluding the use of giant amounts of fuel and/or electricity - which are needed to power all types of conventional pumps.

I googled for rain tables for Thailand for the past decades, but didn't find a chart for that. Am curious to know how this year's rainfall numbers compare to previous years. Main reason: to see whether there's significant more rainfall or whether it's roughly the same amount, and man-made things (and rising seas) are exacerbating the flood problems. My theory is that man-made problems (too much construction which destroys forests and fields which would ordinarily soak up/slow down water).

I reside in Thailand, and when I look around, I see many examples of bad planning in that regard. Buildings built in flood plains, concrete and asphalt covering vast areas of land that used to be fallow or farms, projects being built without proper consideration for drainage, ......the list goes on. Even in my small village in north Thailand, half of a large rice field (10+ acres) was filled in last year with a meter of fill dirt (local hills were destroyed to get the dirt). Not only does that destroy crop growing areas, it knocks out all that acreage which could soak up and slow some of the rainfall. Multiply that by the tens of thousands of villages and hundreds of cities in Thailand where similar farmland/fields are being covered and compacted, and you've got a big part of the reason for the floods.

[maidu]

After living in Thailand for 14 years as a professional, younger man -- not on a retiree's pension -- I finally had to leave because continuing was not sustainable. For every step my wife and I made forward, it seemed we took two steps back.

That said, I don't see that any of Thailand's neighbors offer a much better ethical/cultural system for innovation or long-term sustainable opportunities. My experience in SE Asia is that other than Singapore all the countries are at best chaotic and at worst downright nasty when it comes to business.

Sorry you had to leave. And I relate to what you observed - regarding taking a step forward, two steps back. A recent experience: had a Thai intermediary go to a pu yai ban (village headman) of a fallow area which has incredible potential for a nature park trail. All we needed was for the pu yai ban to say, "ok, your idea sounds interesting, go and raise the money and improve the area" (which has forever been weed choked').

Instead, in typical Thai 'big shot' style, the pu yai ban could only view it in terms of how much money he could soak out of the project. In doing so (putting up shops, charging admission, etc), he also put a bunch of silly restrictions on the project. My Thai intermediary/liaison is young and the pu yai ban is old, so of course, my Thai friend could not counter anything the old man said.

In sum, the project doesn't move forward, even though my team was prepared to raise all the money from donations. And my town doesn't get a potentially lovely (and free!) nature trail winding along the river and circumventing a large limestone hill.

Edited October 15, 2011 by maidu