ricku Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 (edited) With the ongoing floods and all the damage it has caused / is causing, how will this affect thailands currency value? Do you think it will go down or up, just the same? Simple question looking for a simple answer, even if the answer might not be so simple. Edited October 20, 2011 by ricku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mazd2 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 nah, baht seems to be more or less pegged to usd, will only move if/when thai govt wants it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurelius Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 GDP is expected to be lower by 1-1.5%; currency will stay soggy for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wordchild Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 (edited) It is not impossible, now, that we get a technical recession in Thailand, with negative growth over 2 quarters. Poor growth figs for the 4th quarter are certainly "in the market" but, if it looks like the after effects of the crisis are going to seriously impair growth well into 2012 (likely), then the baht could come under a bit of pressure. FWIW my sense is this disaster (and the poor govt handling of the problem) has serious long term implications for Thailands economic development and could impact levels of new inward investment for years. Edited October 21, 2011 by wordchild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champken Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 If any of us are going to benefit by a more favourable exchange rate then i fear that increased prices across the board will more than wipe out any gain that we may get, i understand as of now that some shelves in supermarkets are starting to look bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I think it depends on what the Thai government will do... If they do nothing, then the industry affected by the flood might close down forever, unemployment going up and invenstments going down => so the Thai Baht wold go down. If the government will print money for aid relieve to the people, then inflation might kick in and the baht might go down. If the government however will print money for investments, rebuild of industry and maybe long-term investments in flood protection measures, then these investments might be seen as a kick to the economy and the growth could impact and the Baht could go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Going by the Bangkok Bank rate, the British pound has already risen by 1 full baht in 48 hrs! be great if it kept climbing at that rate but i doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pib Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Considering the flooding has been going on for months across the country, major industrial areas flooded over the last few weeks and FX traders usually placing their bets just before and during such disasters, the baht's value hasn't really changed that much over the last few months/weeks. Seems the slight depreciation it has experienced, along with other emerging market currencies, may be more driven by the Euro problems & European region decreased GDP which will impact Thailand GDP. The coming month should give a clearer picture of how the flooding will affect the baht based on more accurate damage estimates and what the govt decided to do money-wise. But if it does depreciate over the coming weeks/months I would be surprised to no end to see it go higher than 32 baht/USD for a few months. The mid term impact may be more of the baht exchange rate staying stable versus continuing to appreciate against weakening western currencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 And it will be affected by what happens in the US, EU and other major trading partners as much as what happens here. That side of the equation could prove even more volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It should go down, because GDP has been severely effected, and govt borrowing will need to increase markedly, but it may not be allowed to find its own level as the baht apppears to be a managed currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorro1 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 nah, baht seems to be more or less pegged to usd, will only move if/when thai govt wants it to. Correct In 2008 at the height of the recession the bht was pegged to USA $ all the way same same but not different now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evanson Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Going by the Bangkok Bank rate, the British pound has already risen by 1 full baht in 48 hrs! be great if it kept climbing at that rate but i doubt it. As of now, baht depreciating against GBP. Long may it continue. But there again, as before, they simply raise prices. Naman paerng blah blah blah ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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