Thai Flood Recovery Cost Estimated At 25 Billion Dollars

[kimamey]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Since the Thai baht has strengthened roughly 24% against the US dollar in the last ten years, your point is?

http://www.xe.com/cu...to=THB&view=10Y

I think what he is trying to say is that due to this large scale natural disaster and a general state of government disapproval, the baht should have lost value compared to other world currencies. But the BOT is keeping the rate pretty much steady.

I remember last year just before the UK election the pound fell in value because there was concern that no party would get a clear majority and would have to form a coalition or run a minority government making it weak.

Also last year huge demonstrations were held in Bangkok, thousands travelled from the north to join them some of whom were armed. A hospital was stormed, people were killed and smoke filled the sky from building that were set alight. The baht? pretty much steady. Amazing.

[webfact]

WORLD BANK

Thailand 'remains attractive investment destination'

Wichit Chaitrong

The Nation

Floods which would need as much as Bt755 billion for rehabilitation will not scare away much foreign direct investment, said a World Bank economist.

"Globally and regionally, Thailand remains an attractive investment destination. We won't expect lot of businesses to relocate," Annette Dixon, the World Bank's country director, at a press conference yesterday.

The government should give priority to the flood recovery effort over populist policies such as raising the minimum wage and subsidising rice farmers, she added.

While the Bank of Thailand has been urged to cut the policy rate to boost the economy, given the high volatility of the global economy, it "should be extremely prudent", Dixon said.

Ekaterina Vostroknutova, senior economist for East Asia and the Pacific region, said developing East Asia countries were now more concerned about growth than inflation and they had not yet made a move on policy rates. "Central banks in Asia are waiting to see things unfold," she said.

Thailand should increase both public and private investment from the current 20 per cent of GDP to 30 per cent, she added.

The bank's economists said the slower growth in Thailand this year was due to the global economic slowdown, the earthquake in Japan and the flood here.

GDP is expected to expand only 2.4 per cent this year, slower than 3.6 per cent in pre-flood forecasting. The flood's impact is expected to slash GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points. However, growth is expected to be higher next year at 4 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent predicted previously, as reconstruction would lead to more economic activity.

The Word Bank estimated that the private and public sectors will need Bt755 billion to rehabilitate for a stronger and more resilient economy.

The government needs to invest Bt235 billion over the 24 months or so, largely in water-resource management. The private sector will need to invest much more at Bt520.1 billion, said Kirida Bhaopichitr, the World Bank's senior economist for Thailand.

The bank's report on "2554 Thailand Floods: Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning", which draws on a survey conducted from November 725, suggests that damages and losses will total Bt1.36 trillion.

The private sector has suffered the most at Bt1.28 trillion, or 94 per cent of the total, while the public sector bears 6 per cent. The floods have disrupted the supply chains of many industries, particularly automobile and electronics, she said.

The flood's impact will turn the current account from a surplus to a deficit next year. The current-account surplus for this year will fall to US$2.6 billion from the $11.2billion pre-flood forecast.

"The bank estimates the country next year to run a current-account deficit of $2.5 billion, or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product, because of more imports for reconstruction," she said.

However, public-debt law permits the government to borrow from either the domestic or overseas market, so the government need not issue an emergency decree. The private sector will also be able to borrow from the domestic market, which has adequate liquidity, Kirida said.

The Finance Ministry said economic indicators suggest the economy started to contract last month due to the flooding.

Value-added-tax collections expanded only 11.3 per cent year on year last month, down from 13.3 per cent in the previous month, said Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Fiscal Policy office.

Car sales plunged by 38.8 per cent compared with an expansion of 29.6 per cent in the month before. Sales of commercial vehicles also plummeted by 41.8 per cent, suggesting a contraction in private investment.

Preliminary data show that the manufacturing production index tanked by 34.5 per cent, while exports edged up only 0.3 per cent year on year.

-- The Nation 2011-11-29

[ding]

There'll be no end of private finance companies only too willing to provide emergency rescue funds. All they'll want in return is to own the land that they've recovered and everything that's built with the loan money.

Thailand: brace yourself for another crash course in the shock doctrine.

My thoughts exactly. I wish Thailand the best of luck.

[elgato]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Mickey Mouse? Could you be more specific?

[IAMHERE]

You will have to add an estimated 30% kickback to the estimated 25.2 Billion Dollars.

yes and the infrastructure that doesnt need repairing 30% on that too.

The Don Mueang crowd say that after a few weeks in water all the buildings have gone rotten and need replacing. Wow amazing how concrete can form harbours but not building foundations. And if the concreteTerminals are rotten what does that say for the 5,000 baht being offered to the people in lesser buildings blockwork or wooden houses

What are the runways and parking lots made of?

[maidu]

The 2 primary costs are: 'rehabilitation' of properties and businesses, and attempting to 'safeguard' the Bkk area from future floods.

If Bkk was essentially abandoned, then most of those two major costs would be moot. Instead, investment could be put toward relocating gov't and businesses and residences to higher ground.

Of course that won't happen. Instead, gargantuan loans will be taken out, most of which will be pumped in to Bkk's sinking infrastructure, with a large proportion (35%?) clandestinely slipped in to rich peoples' pockets - ........then ever more dire floods will descend upon the sinking mud flats, and the cash carousel will keep turning 'round and 'round. Gives new meaning to the term 'bottom feeders.'

[khaowong1]

This disaster is just an opportunity for the politicians and their friends to siphon even more of our taxes into their very own large pockets. Lets hope that more of them are caught and put behind bars for the rest of their life. Maybe then the corruption will slow down. But that is very big hope and not much reality.

The problem is, when they're caught they flee the country. One thing I admire about the Chinese, they execute corrupt officials.

Hmmm. I kind of like that concept although as a monk I condemn it of course. :-X

[MikeyIdea]

There are quite a few different figures running around. All depends on what is included so it doesn't necessarily mean that some are wrong

Perhaps what was posted on Fridays Newsthread is the most complete one: RT @tulsathit: TR @suthichai: RT @mktmag: World Bank estimates Thai flood damage at 1.4 trillion baht. -post sms news

Typical Asian to not want to look bad and show favourable figures so;

Yepp, I can believe the World Banks estimate of 1 point four trillion baht, they have nothing to gain from putting make-up on the figure they release

Edited November 29, 2011 by MikeyIdea

[whybother]

The 2 primary costs are: 'rehabilitation' of properties and businesses, and attempting to 'safeguard' the Bkk area from future floods.

If Bkk was essentially abandoned, then most of those two major costs would be moot. Instead, investment could be put toward relocating gov't and businesses and residences to higher ground.

Of course that won't happen. Instead, gargantuan loans will be taken out, most of which will be pumped in to Bkk's sinking infrastructure, with a large proportion (35%?) clandestinely slipped in to rich peoples' pockets - ........then ever more dire floods will descend upon the sinking mud flats, and the cash carousel will keep turning 'round and 'round. Gives new meaning to the term 'bottom feeders.'

Sure. Abandon Bangkok. It won't cost anything.

I don't know where you're going to house 12 million people and the businesses that employ them. That won't cost anything either.

[animatic]

This disaster is just an opportunity for the politicians and their friends to siphon even more of our taxes into their very own large pockets. Lets hope that more of them are caught and put behind bars for the rest of their life. Maybe then the corruption will slow down. But that is very big hope and not much reality.

And your offhand libelous speculation on the matter is reality?

Libel doesn't apply to a class of individuals, but to an individual.

Reality in Thailand is politicians in general do use every opportunity to line their pockets.

Hardly difficult to not see that as S.O.P. here.

Edited November 29, 2011 by animatic

[Anon999]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Selfishly speaking as one who remembers £1 = 60 + tbt , I only wish that were true.

Sixty baht! That was quite recent, it was 72+ baht in 2006.

[hbullinger]

Does this sum include all the kick backs?

[chrisinth]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Selfishly speaking as one who remembers £1 = 60 + tbt , I only wish that were true.

And I remember when £1 = 38-42 Baht. This was the standard of exchange before 1997 for at least 12 years!

[David48]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Since the Thai baht has strengthened roughly 24% against the US dollar in the last ten years, your point is?

http://www.xe.com/cu...to=THB&view=10Y

+1 ... agree 100%. by 'floating' the currency the international markets decide what the Baht is worth ... and not left in the hand of Politicians.

ps ... I never have owned a Ducacti.

Did own an Alpha when I was a teenager ... hanker for those days of carefree riding / motoring

[David48]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Since the Thai baht has strengthened roughly 24% against the US dollar in the last ten years, your point is?

http://www.xe.com/cu...to=THB&view=10Y

I think what he is trying to say is that due to this large scale natural disaster and a general state of government disapproval, the baht should have lost value compared to other world currencies. But the BOT is keeping the rate pretty much steady.

Please understand that the BOT does not set the exchange rate.

It's major international influence is to set the interest rate.

Foreign countries bid the Thai Baht and hence the exchange rate ... same as most of the other 'developed' nations.

[Oberkommando]

I hope P.M. Yingluck Sinawatra will increase the income tax for all foreign people that work in Thailand. Foreign people pay so small amount of tax and have lifestyle that is far more easy than majority of Thai people. Between 25-30% tax for foreigner on "low income" 500,000 baht p.a. and 35-40% for foreigner on "good income" 2,000,000 baht p.a.

Increase tax for foreign worker will help Thai people to deal with many problem including recovery from flood disaster.

Foreign people that "love" Thailand will have no problem with this and foreign people that dont like it can go and complain in another place.

Straight from the muddled brain of a Thai. Seems you are suggesting a dual tax system for Thais and foreigners so foreigners can pay more for you inept and poor handling of yet another national disaster.

You'd be far better off getting the much needed funds from your super-rich elite who rarely pay tax themselves (many are exempt from paying tax).

Good luck in the recovery effort, you are really gonna need it with ideas like that.

[ratcatcher]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Mickey Mouse? Could you be more specific?

One might also refer to the Donald Duck buck?

[ROMANOBA]

...Mickey Mouse currency?....I wish I had changed all my euro and USD a few years ago to buy this ' Mickey Mouse' currency!!....

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

[ThomasBird]

Thailand should allow foreigners to operate its dams. Thais are obviously too incompetent to do so.

[ThomasBird]

I hope P.M. Yingluck Sinawatra will increase the income tax for all foreign people that work in Thailand. Foreign people pay so small amount of tax and have lifestyle that is far more easy than majority of Thai people. Between 25-30% tax for foreigner on "low income" 500,000 baht p.a. and 35-40% for foreigner on "good income" 2,000,000 baht p.a.

Increase tax for foreign worker will help Thai people to deal with many problem including recovery from flood disaster.

Foreign people that "love" Thailand will have no problem with this and foreign people that dont like it can go and complain in another place.

Straight from the muddled brain of a Thai. Seems you are suggesting a dual tax system for Thais and foreigners so foreigners can pay more for you inept and poor handling of yet another national disaster.

You'd be far better off getting the much needed funds from your super-rich elite who rarely pay tax themselves (many are exempt from paying tax).

Good luck in the recovery effort, you are really gonna need it with ideas like that.

Don't they already get extra taxes from us in the form of their immigration scam? Without foreigners Thailand is barely Laos.

[maidu]

The 2 primary costs are: 'rehabilitation' of properties and businesses, and attempting to 'safeguard' the Bkk area from future floods.

If Bkk was essentially abandoned, then most of those two major costs would be moot. Instead, investment could be put toward relocating gov't and businesses and residences to higher ground.

Of course that won't happen. Instead, gargantuan loans will be taken out, most of which will be pumped in to Bkk's sinking infrastructure, with a large proportion (35%?) clandestinely slipped in to rich peoples' pockets - ........then ever more dire floods will descend upon the sinking mud flats, and the cash carousel will keep turning 'round and 'round. Gives new meaning to the term 'bottom feeders.'

Sure. Abandon Bangkok. It won't cost anything.

I don't know where you're going to house 12 million people and the businesses that employ them. That won't cost anything either.

Who says it won't cost anything - you? Of course it will cost a heckavalot. But not relocating will cost more. Look at the basics: To try to maintain Bkk is like trying to keep an old decrepit ship afloat. Rather than spending annual bazillions sticking chewing gum on the myriad cracks in the hull - it would be smarter to start the long painful process of relocating to higher ground. Venice, Shanghai, New Orleans, Dacca, and Miami are just a few other major cities which will have to relocate, or watch themselves get innundated with stinky standing water.

Each year it's put off, the costs will climb - so it's better to face the music and start doing it now. No amount of infrastructure is going to keep Bkk dry in the long term, so why shovel tens of billions of dollars annually in to trying to do it - for a short term and questionably affective fix.

2 years ago, the talk was of building a giant berm all the way around the city, 360 degrees - I jest not. Now, there's talk of Km-wide cement waterways hither and thither. Guess what, all that infrastructure won't work! When you try to wall water out, you also wall water in. You can't cement mother nature in to a corner, and you can't pump out mother nature when sea levels continue to rise, as they will. Best to do the smart thing, and move to higher ground. Beach front property in Phitsonaluk? - not outlandish my friend.

Edited November 29, 2011 by maidu

[Roj]

I hope P.M. Yingluck Sinawatra will increase the income tax for all foreign people that work in Thailand. Foreign people pay so small amount of tax and have lifestyle that is far more easy than majority of Thai people. Between 25-30% tax for foreigner on "low income" 500,000 baht p.a. and 35-40% for foreigner on "good income" 2,000,000 baht p.a.

Increase tax for foreign worker will help Thai people to deal with many problem including recovery from flood disaster.

Foreign people that "love" Thailand will have no problem with this and foreign people that dont like it can go and complain in another place.

That`s the start of a very slippery slope. Thailand already has dual pricing for Thais and foreigners at many national parks and attractions. An `envy` tax will do nothing except convince foreign intellect to work elsewhere and Thailand does need outside knowledge in many areas of its economy. Some Thais pay a lot of tax as well. My wife is the CEO of a Thai company and her tax bill would make your eyes water. Instead of suggesting xenophobic policies concentrate on the fact that a lot of people have suffered including the expat community. Recovery will be better aided by common purpose rather than division.

[golferchin76]

This forum is filled with so many negative opinions, filled with filthy vents, that ThaiVisa really disgusts me.

You traveled here, chose to live here, and now what you do all day is you sit there and post sarcastic stuffs, venting sh*t to a lot of topics in the forum. Often time notionally calling Thais a race inferior to yours.

It used to be that ThaiVisa was somewhere I went to look opinions but now I just delete, delete, delete.

I am very grateful that my parents brought me here when I was 12. While Thailand is very different from say, Australia, UK, or Greece, it is in no way a lesser place to find a happy life.

The kingdom is not at all perfect. It never has been, and it will never will be. It is a loosely governed jungle. You knew it and that's why you are here.

Compare to what I am seeing now around the world, a LOT of so-called developed countries have made living a good life more difficult than ever.

It is true that there are a lot of bad sh*ts here, but I find them worse in cities, for example, New York, Paris. Problems appear different, but they inherently show that every human being given the opportunity can be just as selfish, corrupt, foolish, etc. etc.

The important thing is, you can find GOOD in this kingdom.

Where I live, flood was waist high, and is still 30-40cm tall. I see people helping each other despite of difficult living conditions.

The majority of Thais amazes me. They seem to wade through difficulties with more ease and smile.

It is one of the many many good things about this country and the people.

If you can't see or feel the 'good' in this jungle mess, then it is really not for you.

[golferchin76]

The 2 primary costs are: 'rehabilitation' of properties and businesses, and attempting to 'safeguard' the Bkk area from future floods.

If Bkk was essentially abandoned, then most of those two major costs would be moot. Instead, investment could be put toward relocating gov't and businesses and residences to higher ground.

Of course that won't happen. Instead, gargantuan loans will be taken out, most of which will be pumped in to Bkk's sinking infrastructure, with a large proportion (35%?) clandestinely slipped in to rich peoples' pockets - ........then ever more dire floods will descend upon the sinking mud flats, and the cash carousel will keep turning 'round and 'round. Gives new meaning to the term 'bottom feeders.'

Sure. Abandon Bangkok. It won't cost anything.

I don't know where you're going to house 12 million people and the businesses that employ them. That won't cost anything either.

Who says it won't cost anything - you? Of course it will cost a heckavalot. But not relocating will cost more. Look at the basics: To try to maintain Bkk is like trying to keep an old decrepit ship afloat. Rather than spending annual bazillions sticking chewing gum on the myriad cracks in the hull - it would be smarter to start the long painful process of relocating to higher ground. Venice, Shanghai, New Orleans, Dacca, and Miami are just a few other major cities which will have to relocate, or watch themselves get innundated with stinky standing water.

Each year it's put off, the costs will climb - so it's better to face the music and start doing it now. No amount of infrastructure is going to keep Bkk dry in the long term, so why shovel tens of billions of dollars annually in to trying to do it - for a short term and questionably affective fix.

2 years ago, the talk was of building a giant berm all the way around the city, 360 degrees - I jest not. Now, there's talk of Km-wide cement waterways hither and thither. Guess what, all that infrastructure won't work! When you try to wall water out, you also wall water in. You can't cement mother nature in to a corner, and you can't pump out mother nature when sea levels continue to rise, as they will. Best to do the smart thing, and move to higher ground. Beach front property in Phitsonaluk? - not outlandish my friend.

You can relocate there first and see if the majority will follow.

The idea would not work and you know it because it won't pass the vote.

Do remember this is not a communist country like Cambodia.

[maidu]

You can relocate there first and see if the majority will follow.

The idea would not work and you know it because it won't pass the vote.

Do remember this is not a communist country like Cambodia.

I didn't need to relocate. When I chose a place to reside in Thailand, I moved to Chiang Rai, and have been here ever since, over a dozen years.

'pass the vote'? oh, I see, Thais have to look to their politicians before they can do the sensible thing. Actually, there are several groups of people who have to choose whether to stay or leave Bkk. There are businesses which can usually make the decision to leave because it's just the smart thing to do, rather that be stuck in a flood-prone location. As for residents, some can leave, yet for many it's quite difficult and expensive. For farang who don't have job connections to Bkk (for themselves or their wives) then there seems no good reason to stay in Bkk, unless they just like big cities. Thai gov't could move, as most of what they do is push paper around. I won't mention royalty, except to say they have residences elsewhere in Thailand. Universities could move. Wats and holy places could move away from Bkk, except there's the superstition factor of relatively 'holy sites' which is impossible for most Thais to get over (similar with their fixation on ghosts {pee} and other superstitions). Even so, any Thai will tell you there are a plethora of holy sites throughout Thailand. The Egyptians moved their grand megaton statues of Luxor (which were threatened by impending flooding), which shows what a people can do when determined.

Belizians moved their capital inland when they realized their former capital was too exposed to hurricanes. Thais can move their capital to higher ground, though nobody is saying it will be easy or cheap. It's just better to start planning and doing it now, rather than waiting years and hundreds of billions of wasted $'s later. It's bound to happen sooner or later, so the sooner it gets started, the more money will be saved.

Edited November 29, 2011 by maidu

[fullcave]

I hope P.M. Yingluck Sinawatra will increase the income tax for all foreign people that work in Thailand. Foreign people pay so small amount of tax and have lifestyle that is far more easy than majority of Thai people. Between 25-30% tax for foreigner on "low income" 500,000 baht p.a. and 35-40% for foreigner on "good income" 2,000,000 baht p.a.

Increase tax for foreign worker will help Thai people to deal with many problem including recovery from flood disaster.

Foreign people that "love" Thailand will have no problem with this and foreign people that dont like it can go and complain in another place.

Higher taxes is not the way to attract investment silly..... (economics 101)

[Oberkommando]

Do remember this is not a communist country like Cambodia.

Cambodia ain't communist.

Thailand should allow foreigners to operate its dams. Thais are obviously too incompetent to do so.

[IsaanUSA]

This forum is filled with so many negative opinions, filled with filthy vents, that ThaiVisa really disgusts me.

The culture belonging to the main demographic of this website is a lot different than what you are used to.

I agree with you, but you just need to skim over the first few pages of a thread to get the main idea of the story and what people think about that topic. Don't waste your time reading every single reply, and when a thread turns political it's best to just close the window. I would say a majority of conversations in the news section end up with the same fate.

The other subforums are pretty good though.

[rubl]

I hope P.M. Yingluck Sinawatra will increase the income tax for all foreign people that work in Thailand. Foreign people pay so small amount of tax and have lifestyle that is far more easy than majority of Thai people. Between 25-30% tax for foreigner on "low income" 500,000 baht p.a. and 35-40% for foreigner on "good income" 2,000,000 baht p.a.

Increase tax for foreign worker will help Thai people to deal with many problem including recovery from flood disaster.

Foreign people that "love" Thailand will have no problem with this and foreign people that dont like it can go and complain in another place.

Higher taxes is not the way to attract investment silly..... (economics 101)

With most Thai HiSo, politicians having millions or even billions and avoiding paying tax, I wonder if taxing poor farang really would make a difference. Mind you the lady Natchainuk may know more about this as she wrote ""I am Thai lady , marry and living in UK for 7 years. I graduate from Chula and have a good family. I marry with a good man that is also family friend."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=findpost&pid=4870079

Edited November 29, 2011 by rubl

[techboy]

And their still floating the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht. :jap:

Since the Thai baht has strengthened roughly 24% against the US dollar in the last ten years, your point is?

http://www.xe.com/cu...to=THB&view=10Y

I think what he is trying to say is that due to this large scale natural disaster and a general state of government disapproval, the baht should have lost value compared to other world currencies. But the BOT is keeping the rate pretty much steady.

Why would you try to defend this person by spinning the context of his reply into merely being a reaction to the flood disaster? He made an uninformed and unrestricted-as-to-conditions statement citing "the Mickey Mouse currency we know as the baht." He even gave his ignorance kudos by terminating it with a Japanese wai icon. Thailand has a strong emerging industrial economy and the baht is anything but "Mickey Mouse." Rather than defend this person's Mickey Mouse post you should let him roast when he is put in his place by someone who takes exception to his unpleasent babble.