January Sales?

[Abrak]

This has absolutely nothing to do with January Sales but as they dont seem to be happening this is far more interesting. And when I say 'interesting' I more mean interesting to me. It is sort of relevant to January because we approx half way through the season.

Anyway it is an interactive table that shows goal difference against points. Obviously there is a massive correlation - actually far higher than you might imagine. There is the odd outlier like Everton coming 4th in 02/02 with -1 GD while Liverpool were 5th with +11 GD. But it is very rare.

The sort of thing this indicates is that teams with goal differences of over -30 points teams get relegated so Wigan and Bolton are most of the way there. That Man U are slightly further ahead of Spurs than the points suggest. That Chelsea are favorites for 4th etc..

Anyway it is interactive which means you or your kids can play with it.

http://vizwiz.blogsp...in-english.html

Edited January 15, 2012 by Abrak

[MiG16]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/wenger-i-don-t-like-the-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

[Abrak]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

[bkkjames]

According to "sky sources", berba jetted off to germany for talks-or a new merc. Highlights at 11pm.

[carmine]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

Everyone is underpaid compaired to what City would paiy them.

Now back on topic, Loic Remy please.

[Abrak]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

Everyone is underpaid compaired to what City would paiy them.

Now back on topic, Loic Remy please.

Personally I think this will probably turn out to be a wild goose chase this window.

Why would OM sell their best striker mid way through the season when they are 2 points off the CL places and when they are still in this years CL. At the very least they would be looking for a very unLevy price. Still one for the summer maybe?

[Devil]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

Everyone is underpaid compaired to what City would paiy them.

Now back on topic, Loic Remy please.

Presumably this would mean Defoe out? Who is now linked with a move to LFC.

[smokie36]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

Everyone is underpaid compaired to what City would paiy them.

Now back on topic, Loic Remy please.

Presumably this would mean Defoe out? Who is now linked with a move to LFC.

You can have Pav....Defoe is staying put.

[carmine]

"Wenger - I don't like the January window"

http://www.arsenal.c...-january-window

This was sent from the Official Arsenal iPhone App, keeping Arsenal fans up to date wherever they are. Go to www.arsenal.com/iphone for more details.

I think Levy has already dealt with his complaint.

I dont follow Arsenal that well but I gather they have a structural problem with their wage structure. From what I know there is some thing of a wage cap - say 90k a week but unlike say Spurs that also has a fairly strict wage structure, Wenger believes that squad players should all be paid 'fairly equitably'. This means that very much like Spurs his top players maybe underpaid relative to what say City would pay them and therefore they tend to leave but some of the less good players are overpaid and hence difficult to get rid of.

This would certainly account for their relatively high wage bill given that I dont think that they have players on 150k a week. It would also be something that might appeal to some economic theory that Wenger adheres to while being inherently insane.

Everyone is underpaid compaired to what City would paiy them.

Now back on topic, Loic Remy please.

Presumably this would mean Defoe out? Who is now linked with a move to LFC.

Yes it would. Strange in some ways that he isn't starting for us because he's in the best form i've seen him in for a long while. Its also well known he's not happy about the situation.

What i can't quite get my head round is why Marseilles would sell us Remy in january. One things for sure, Defoe would not be sold unless someone coming in.

[Abrak]

Does anyone get the feeling that when you look around at the transfer window all you really see at the moment is the deafening sound of silence. Is it possible that the transfer merry go round is coming to an end.

One thing that is missing so far in this window is the usual 100m injection of new money that we get from Chelsea/City. It is the new money that causes the merry go round because transfer fees are not spent they are transfered. So if Chelsea spends 20m on a player, the selling club then has 20m to buy another etc etc. Obviously a lot leaks abroad and if you buy off Everton it goes to the banks.

But there have been other signs.

1) The temporary signings of both Scholes and Henry were something of a statement of intent that at least some holes the clubs werent looking to fill in the transfer market.

2) The Cahill saga looked particular one sided. The fee was cheap. All salaries are cheap to Chelsea but they haggled for 2 weeks and, of course, noone else was interested. And even City are talking about having to sell before they can buy.

3) It is interesting that Sneijder's price seems to have fallen 10m quid since the summer. Milan that is losing buckets keen to rid themselves of his 200k a week wages. And still Utd dont seem that interested.

Of course everyone is still asking for ridiculously high wages and transfer fees - it is just that noone seems prepared to pay them. So very little appears to be happening.

I also think that Chelsea and City are beginning to see the very large cost of high wages. If you consider Chelsea how many players have they sold for a good fee in the last 5 years? If you pay Adebayor a 24m transfer fee and pay him 180k a week how much is he now worth?

[Abrak]

This has absolutely nothing to do with January Sales but as they dont seem to be happening this is far more interesting. And when I say 'interesting' I more mean interesting to me. It is sort of relevant to January because we approx half way through the season.

Anyway it is an interactive table that shows goal difference against points. Obviously there is a massive correlation - actually far higher than you might imagine. There is the odd outlier like Everton coming 4th in 02/02 with -1 GD while Liverpool were 5th with +11 GD. But it is very rare.

The sort of thing this indicates is that teams with goal differences of over -30 points teams get relegated so Wigan and Bolton are most of the way there. That Man U are slightly further ahead of Spurs than the points suggest. That Chelsea are favorites for 4th etc..

Anyway it is interactive which means you or your kids can play with it.

http://vizwiz.blogsp...in-english.html

This is a little mathematical.

I remember Carmine the other day saying that if the refs hadnt disallowed 3 goals in matches that were drawn by Spurs, then Spurs would be top of the table. Whether Carmine thinks that is a good argument or not, I can tell you that if they were allowed it would be a statistical miracle that Spurs with a goal difference of +21 would have more points than City with a goal difference of 40 (about 1 a game.)

At Liverpool, we are about the leading experts on draws. We put them down to 1) refs 2) woodwork 3) great goalkeeping. The reality is they are all excuses for not scoring enough goals in the first place so it wouldnt actually matter. In 12 of City's matches they could have had 2 of their goals disallowed and still won.

I did a simple linnear regression of the data from the above post. It works out at.

Season points = .654GD + 52.06

But what is impressive is the R squared or coefficient of determination. This is 93.1%. What this means simply is that 93% of a clubs points is explained by its goal difference. Why this is interesting is that it is not inherently intuitive. If you win by 1 goal or 3 you still get the same number of points. (It is quite similar to pythagoras expectation theory though). Essentially if you are on the same number of points as a team but have been winning by a greater goal difference you are likely to score more points than that team in the future. And Spurs have garnered a lot of points with a relatively low goal difference, so are vulnerable to slip ups.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Abrak

[smokie36]

So you're saying we need more goals from Modric and to sign another striker. Well put Abrak that was a classic post by the way. Linear regression...yikes!

[Abrak]

So you're saying we need more goals from Modric and to sign another striker. Well put Abrak that was a classic post by the way. Linear regression...yikes!

Not at all.

If you were in Chelsea's current position I would suggest buying another striker.

As it is you are so comfortably in 3rd you are not going to come 5th. And winning the title is a long shot which would need City to collapse somewhat.

In any case what is the prize for winning the Premiership.

Spurs success has been built on long term growth and financial discipline. We have seen the Aston Villas, Chelsea before Abromavich, Leeds. overextend themselves. I see a lot of commentators advising Spurs to be financially aggressive now to win the title. The last thing Levy will do now is spend aggressively when he is negotiating the financing of the new stadium.

And before Alfieconn tells me to move it to the business section, any Spurs supporter that doesnt appreciate how well the club is run financially doesnt understand how it has achieved its success and how it can be sustained.

So no, if I was Levy, I would wait for a new manager and then spend.

[mrbojangles]

QPR seem to have been the busiest thus far. They are looking like they are putting a fairly strong squad together with the full intent of staying in the prem. Must admit, they are already playing some decent football.

[smokie36]

QPR seem to have been the busiest thus far. They are looking like they are putting a fairly strong squad together with the full intent of staying in the prem. Must admit, they are already playing some decent football.

Glued to Sky and BBC tonight then folks?

I'll admit to the occasional peek but I reckon its slim pickings this time around.

[mrbojangles]

QPR seem to have been the busiest thus far. They are looking like they are putting a fairly strong squad together with the full intent of staying in the prem. Must admit, they are already playing some decent football.

Glued to Sky and BBC tonight then folks?

I'll be in the <deleted> air. Flying back to saudi this afternoon. Gonna miss the City match which will be the first one all season. I was sure when I booked the flights we were playing Everton tomorrow night.

[Devil]

Tick Tock...

"Bastion of Invincibility" Liverpool Football Club.

[marshbags]

A complete list of ( updated ) transfers of all divisions has just been published on the BBC website today.

Ref url :- http://news.bbc.co.u...ll/16377058.stm

Again I hope i,m not breaking any rules by adding the url.

Good luck for the rest of the season to everyone.

marshbags

Edited February 1, 2012 by marshbags

[smokie36]

We're clearly the big winners in this window.

Saha will be banging in goals all the way.

Mugs the lot of you. Especially Moscovites...£8m...haha

[MiG16]

you seem to have lent everyone out on loan

Can I get one too

My place needs a clean

And marsh your BBC links are ok to stay

[smokie36]

you seem to have lent everyone out on loan

Can I get one too

My place needs a clean

And marsh your BBC links are ok to stay

Our youngsters go out on loan migsy. Yours stay at home so Mr Wenger can have his pick.