2m Rai Marked Out To Hold Flood Water This Year: Thailand

[webfact]

FLOOD

2m rai marked out to hold flood water this year

Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Two million rai in provinces from Phitsanulok to Suphan Buri will be used to store flood water so Bangkok and its adjacent provinces are not hit by devastating floods like they were last year.

Anond Snidvongs, a member of the Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management, said after he met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is preparing to visit provinces in the North and Central regions from February 13 to 17 to work on water-management plans.

Yingluck's first stop will be the Sirikit Dam in Uttaradit before she heads for Phitsanulok, Chai Nat, Sing Buri, Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani.

Anond said the 2 million rai will be divided into two groups, one in the basin of the Yom and Nan rivers in Phitsanulok, Phichit and Nakhon Sawan and another that would cover Ayutthaya's Bang Ban and Sena districts as well as Suphan Buri's Song Phi Nong district.

If this pilot project works well in controlling floods, then the areas would be expanded.

Meanwhile, after attending yesterday's Cabinet meeting, Yingluck told reporters she had ordered the Royal Irrigation Department to release water from dams regularly.

Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit has been given the job of working with Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to ensure that canals into which the water will be released are clean and not congested. She said everything should be in place before the rainy season arrives and that Science and Technology Minister Plodprasop Suraswadi would be in charge of disaster warning.

In answer to reporters' questions about what would be done with the drained water, Yingluck explained that these were just shortterm measures to deal with the upcoming rainy season.

-- The Nation 2012-02-01

[moe666]

Will that be enough considering the scope of this years floods. When I flew to Chiang Mai in Nov. it looked like an ocean with roof tops and trees sticking up.

[submaniac]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

[ratcatcher]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

And you have that in writing???

[animatic]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

And you have that in writing???

Yes Mr. R.

I would hold your breath this won't happen again.

World weather patterns are bizarre and El Nina is still with us for her current cycle.

[boogey]

for me it sounds like this year its not "flood", but "plan". so.. problem fixed. and; if the "plan" works well, then...

--- >>> If this pilot project works well in controlling floods, then the areas would be expanded.

great. so no more flood disaster. only planned flooding. do I understand correctly? will that be good for the people living there? any difference?

[ResX]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

I will put up this way. A 1 in 50 years flood has the odd 2% to strike any year. The odd becomes 100% in 50 years. If it struck last year the odd remains the same for this year, i.e. 2% odd.

Let me put in the other way. You have seen 1 in 50 years flood return last year. We want to beleive it will never return back until 50 years later. Assuming this premise is correct. Then, what stop us to beleive the flood that has return frequency 1 in 100 years can strike this year? After all the flood of that intesity and frequency had struck 100 years ago. It is about time this year for the flood to strike gain. Note that a 1 in 100 years flood frequency is more intense than a 1 in 50 years flood frequency. Maybe this year 1 in 1000 years flood will pay its visit to Thailand after not doing so for the last 1000 years!

[EyesWideOpen]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

As I recall the rainfall for 2011 was only slightly above normal. I think they screwed the pooch on the dam release, but of course cannot admit that, or someone will lose face.

[CHANGOVER]

Presumably this will be 'private' land so will it be compulsory purchased, if so what about compensation?

[zakk9]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

I will put up this way. A 1 in 50 years flood has the odd 2% to strike any year. The odd becomes 100% in 50 years. If it struck last year the odd remains the same for this year, i.e. 2% odd.

Let me put in the other way. You have seen 1 in 50 years flood return last year. We want to beleive it will never return back until 50 years later. Assuming this premise is correct. Then, what stop us to beleive the flood that has return frequency 1 in 100 years can strike this year? After all the flood of that intesity and frequency had struck 100 years ago. It is about time this year for the flood to strike gain. Note that a 1 in 100 years flood frequency is more intense than a 1 in 50 years flood frequency. Maybe this year 1 in 1000 years flood will pay its visit to Thailand after not doing so for the last 1000 years!

Nope. It's the same principle as when you throw a dice: The chance is always 1 : 6 that you'll get top score. In addition, rain volume is on the increase due to climate chances (rising ocean temperatures) so there's a real chance that there'll be even heavier rain within the next few years.

[moe666]

If it helps we had rain in Chiang mai last night,in the middle of the dry season. I believe last years rainy season started off early as well.

[h90]

Presumably this will be 'private' land so will it be compulsory purchased, if so what about compensation?

And does it happen that this land was just bought from someone related to Shinawatra Family?

[AlanL1275]

Lower the water level in the reservoirs. That is one of the main reason for having a reservoir. Some of the reservoirs/lakes where I am from are drained almost completely this time of year in preparation for the rainy season.

[IsaanUSA]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

I will put up this way. A 1 in 50 years flood has the odd 2% to strike any year. The odd becomes 100% in 50 years. If it struck last year the odd remains the same for this year, i.e. 2% odd.

Let me put in the other way. You have seen 1 in 50 years flood return last year. We want to beleive it will never return back until 50 years later. Assuming this premise is correct. Then, what stop us to beleive the flood that has return frequency 1 in 100 years can strike this year? After all the flood of that intesity and frequency had struck 100 years ago. It is about time this year for the flood to strike gain. Note that a 1 in 100 years flood frequency is more intense than a 1 in 50 years flood frequency. Maybe this year 1 in 1000 years flood will pay its visit to Thailand after not doing so for the last 1000 years!

Nope. It's the same principle as when you throw a dice: The chance is always 1 : 6 that you'll get top score. In addition, rain volume is on the increase due to climate chances (rising ocean temperatures) so there's a real chance that there'll be even heavier rain within the next few years.

Disagree. What he is saying is that a "once in 50 years flood" happens exactly once every 50 years, so then it's not like rolling a dice. Rolling a dice is random. A guaranteed event happening in X amount of tries is not random.

Anyways, it's all stupid anyways. "50 year flood" really has no legitimate meaning. It just means something big that happens not very often, but you're likely to see it once in your lifetime.

[billd766]

Up here in Khampaeng Phet province the Pu Yai Ban has sent out a paper and a map showing the area which will be flooded after a dam is built.

As far as I know the dam will be about 400 metres from our house and the eventual water level will settle around the 161 metres AMSL mark.

It will cut the road in a few places and quite a few villagers will lose their farm and lands.

It is said that compensation will be paid whoever most of the land has no chanote and is really government land granted to people during the communist rebellion many years ago.

For all that I dislike the TRT party and their politicians SOMEONE somewhere seems to be doing something.

The klong that the dam will cover is dammed by sandbags in places and in other places it is perhaps 10 cm deep and a metre or so wide.

Last September or October it was 5 metres deep in places and perhaps 40 metres wide and a few corners were straightened out and land washed away.

The klong is called Klong Klung and runs from Mae Wong across to Klong Klung on the route 1 and into the Ping river and then on down to Nakhon Sawan where the Ping joins the Nan river to form the Chao Phraya and on to Bangkok.

[ResX]

There's an old saying about closing barn doors after the livestock have escaped. The flood this year was a fluke, 1 in 50 year type of flood. It's not going to happen next year, but at least there is some planning this time.

I will put up this way. A 1 in 50 years flood has the odd 2% to strike any year. The odd becomes 100% in 50 years. If it struck last year the odd remains the same for this year, i.e. 2% odd.

Let me put in the other way. You have seen 1 in 50 years flood return last year. We want to beleive it will never return back until 50 years later. Assuming this premise is correct. Then, what stop us to beleive the flood that has return frequency 1 in 100 years can strike this year? After all the flood of that intesity and frequency had struck 100 years ago. It is about time this year for the flood to strike gain. Note that a 1 in 100 years flood frequency is more intense than a 1 in 50 years flood frequency. Maybe this year 1 in 1000 years flood will pay its visit to Thailand after not doing so for the last 1000 years!

Nope. It's the same principle as when you throw a dice: The chance is always 1 : 6 that you'll get top score. In addition, rain volume is on the increase due to climate chances (rising ocean temperatures) so there's a real chance that there'll be even heavier rain within the next few years.

Disagree. What he is saying is that a "once in 50 years flood" happens exactly once every 50 years, so then it's not like rolling a dice. Rolling a dice is random. A guaranteed event happening in X amount of tries is not random.

Anyways, it's all stupid anyways. "50 year flood" really has no legitimate meaning. It just means something big that happens not very often, but you're likely to see it once in your lifetime.

For your first comment, to be precise 1 in 50 years will strike at least once in 50 years. Its probability is 100%. The only assumption is the rainfall will coming to the Chao Phraya cathchment the way it did over the next 50 years. That is all all I need to ensure my statement can hold under scrutiny.

For your second statement I would say that 1 in 50 years flood at any site can be defined mathematically to have the exact value. To share with you, we have one reservoir here that has 1 in 50 years flood equivalent to 890 million cubic meters of water that falls in 4 days. If the volume of 4-day flood water is greater than 890 million cubic meters then it has to be the biggest flood in >50 years. Otherwise it has to be the biggest flood in <50years.

We can represent flood flow in probability distribution function. I normally use standard deviation probablity density function. It may not be perfect, but very helpful. For one of our reservoirs, we have managed to capture two major floods over the last 8 years. Last november to Jan we were narrowly be beaten by even bigger flood than we had expected. We lost 50-90million cubic meters due to spillage but able to capture and utilize 4 billion cubic meters. The most important thing is nobody has to shift from his house...