Analysis: Beginning Of The End Of Thaksin?

[george]

ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?

BANGKOK: -- A previously unthinkable scenario – a quick Thaksin Shinawatra downfall – is looking more likely by the day

When the next election comes about, or when the next government is formed, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra won’t be making a comeback.

Hard to believe, perhaps, but insiders and political watchers are looking at the possibility of non-Thaksin politics with growing interest, as the “five pillars” that once supported his leadership are beginning to crack.

“Key members of Thai Rak Thai understand the grave situation. They realise Thai Rak Thai won’t return to power again in the next election. That’s why they are planning to jump ship,” said an aide to an ex-Cabinet member in Thaksin’s government.

“They can quickly catch the scent of things. The story that Sanan Kachornprasart has been in talks with Somsak Thepsuthin, Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Pinij Jarusombat is all true. It appears they may be forming something like a grand coalition with the Democrats.”

Thaksin had a meal with key Thai Rak Thai members last week after Kom Chad Luek, the mass-circulation Thai daily, broke a story that his lieutenants were considering a mass defection.

Somsak, Pinij and others came out to deny the report, which they said, was leaked by someone with ill intentions toward them and the party. Snoh Thienthong’s Wang Nam Yen faction has been lurking silently in the wings, ready to pounce on Thaksin at any given time.

Yet the damage was done. It marked the first sign of cracks in Thai Rak Thai, which is made up of several factions. Money politics brought these factions together. But if Thaksin’s popularity sinks further – a likely scenario – defection or change within the party should accelerate and it might collapse like a house of cards.

Thai Rak Thai’s domination of Parliament is one of the five pillars that allowed Thaksin to control of the country. And it looks like it’s starting to crumble.

A political insider in government said Thaksin’s ability to stay in power depends on his ability to cope with the five pillars – the monarchy, the people, the media, parliament and the military.

Backed by a strong political mandate, Thaksin appeared to be doing rather well in his first term where he used a delicate, yet strong-handed approach to balance his relationship with the five pillars. With 19 million votes for Thai Rak Thai, Thaksin convincingly won a second term in the February election, winning 377 out of 500 seats in the Lower House.

But in recent months, the tide has turned against him, due to the public’s pent-up anger at his arrogance and overconfidence, traits that have damaged his credibility beyond repair. Anti-Thaksin sentiment is also quickly spreading.

His administration was badly hurt by the CTX bomb-detectors scandal at the new airport. Then came the “conspiracy” to buy Matichon Publishing Group and Post Publishing Group. Thaksin was also damaged by Thai Rak Thai’s opposition to extend the Skytrain to Thon Buri, which infuriated local residents.

The government’s real agenda for privatising Egat Plc has never been fully explained and the initial public offering of Egat was recently blocked by the Supreme Administrative Court.

Teachers have also been up in arms, staging demonstrations opposing Thaksin’s decentralisation policy.

Most recently, media maverick Sondhi Limthongkul has exposed a series of corruption scandals that have rocked Thaksin and his cronies.

In regard to the “first pillar”, the monarchy, Thaksin appears to have all but lost the confidence of the Royal institution.

In an address on December 4, His Majesty the King rebuked the PM on several counts, particularly his intolerance of criticism. The King said the King can do wrong and that Thai people are entitled to criticise him. The following day Thaksin told his lawyer to drop all libel charges, worth Bt2 billion in claims, against Sondhi.

The revered King also used the words “dead” or “die” seven times in his speech – something he had never done before – to back his warnings as to what bad political steps could lead to. He said everyone should practice awareness in everything they do and think. He admitted that before becoming King, he experienced moments of regret, but after taking the throne, he became more careful about his thoughts and actions.

“Had I not been careful enough, I would have been dead,” the King said. “If we do wrong, we will also die. Everybody is in this same situation. Those who hold high rank in society, if they are not careful enough, they will die too ... I am not condemning anyone, but if we are not careful, Thailand will perish. I ask you all to be careful, very careful with what you think, speak, or do. If you think it is right, go ahead and do it.”

Denis Gray, of Associated Press, summed up: “So a few words of royal rebuke against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have been enough to send tremors through the political arena, already shaken by escalating attacks against Thaksin’s government for alleged corruption, cronyism and abuse of power on a massive scale.

“Some analysts say this rare intervention by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej may even signal the beginning of the end for Thaksin, who enjoyed an overwhelming re-election victory just 10 months ago.”

In regard to the “second pillar”, the people, Thaksin is seeing his popularity sink. A recent survey found his rating at an eight-month low. And while the rural populace may not be fully aware of political developments taking place, they are seeing their debts accumulate. For the moment, however, their anger is contained.

But the middle-class has increasingly become disillusioned with Thaksin. There is a pent-up frustration over state controls and dirty politics, and the anger appears ready to burst out at any time. That is why more people turned out at Sondhi’s talk show on Friday to listen to his exposure of state corruption and scandals.

On websites for political debates, Thaksin has fewer defenders and most are out to criticise the prime minister and his government with harsh and abusive language.

Thaksin’s relationship with the “third pillar”, the media, is getting badly out of control. He thought he had subjugated state-owned media and had major publications on his side, in the style of Singapore and Malaysia. But Thailand is not Singapore or Malaysia. And it is Thaksin’s folly to believe he can sway the press forever.

When Grammy GMM sought to take over Matichon, there was public furore. Civic groups forced Grammy GMM to retreat. But the fall-out struck Thaksin hard, with the public firmly believing the newspaper buy-ups were linked to his government’s continual moves to muffle the press.

Thaksin blundered further when Channel 9 removed Sondhi’s Thailand Weekly political talk show in September because of its unfriendly criticism of the government. As a result, Sondhi held his talk show in public arenas and drew crowds several-hundred-thousand strong through cable TV, live Internet broadcasts and newspaper reports. The media has hit back, making it virtually impossible for Thaksin to silence critics.

Sondhi’s weekly talk show has become a big embarrassment to the PM because he has exposed corruption scandals. He has attacked Thaksin directly and last week shifted his target to ACM Kongsak Wantana, the interior minister.

“Sondhi is likely to go after the Cabinet members of Thaksin one by one. The next big fish may be Suriya [Jungrungreangkit],” a political insider said.

Thaksin’s control of the “fourth pillar”, Parliament, is also no longer unbreakable. Before the February election, he wanted to muster 400 MPs to claim absolute control of Parliament. But Thai Rak Thai has been shown to be a marriage of convenience with its factions, not unlike the Samakkhitham Party during the Suchinda era.

Once key members of Thai Rak Thai start to defect – hard under current constitutional circumstances but not impossible – the party will fall. Civic and democracy movements have been calling for political reform to end his one-party rule. Sondhi also tried to highlight political reform in one of his attacks.

Thaksin’s relationship with the “fifth pillar”, the military, is far from smooth, although the public perception is that he has absolute control over the three armed forces. In truth, if a crisis breaks out, Thaksin cannot count on the police, Army, Navy and Air Force coming to his side. The last military reshuffle, which faced unprecedented 24-day delay before winning royal assent, Thaksin was stopped from putting certain people into key positions because of intervention from Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, chairman of the Privy Council.

As the wind of change blows, Thailand is headed for political confrontation, one that will be decisive and abrupt. But there should be no bloodshed. In the end, it is hard to see how Thaksin can escape the whirlwind that’s sweeping the playing field.

-- Political Desk, The Nation 2005-12-13

[britmaveric]

Where there is smoke there is fire???

[redrus]

Interesting, very interesting.

I for one would not be too unhappy to see the end of the man's "reign".

Although, not too up on the background of Thai polotics, is there someone just as bad waiting in the wings should he leave post for whatever reason.?

redrus

[britmaveric]

Interesting, very interesting.

I for one would not be too unhappy to see the end of the man's "reign".

Although, not too up on the background of Thai polotics, is there someone just as bad waiting in the wings should he leave post for whatever reason.?

redrus

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Be careful what you wish for because it just might happen. (replacement could be far worse)

[george]

I can't think of someone who could replace him. Where is the opposition?

[britmaveric]

I can't think of someone who could replace him. Where is the opposition?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[stumonster]

thai rak thai's control of the media , when it slips , might well bring out a large amount of stories damaging to many of the "people" in senior positions. We can live in hope that these will disgust enough Thai's that any new contenders for positions as leaders of the government will be closely examined.

[stumonster]

I can't think of someone who could replace him.

has she got any large skeletons in her closet?

[sriracha john]

Abhisit Vejjajiva, Leader of the Democrat Party and next PM?

After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor’s degree (first class honours) in philosophy, politics and economics and a Master’s degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor’s degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand. After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996. In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. Throughout his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office. Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Since February 2005, he has been serving as leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

[terdsak_12]

Abhisit Vejjajiva, Leader of the Democrat Party and next PM?

After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor’s degree (first class honours) in philosophy, politics and economics and a Master’s degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor’s degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand. After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996. In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. Throughout his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office. Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Since February 2005, he has been serving as leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

7

He'd get my vote!!!

[sierra01]

Abhisit Vejjajiva, Leader of the Democrat Party and next PM?

After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor’s degree (first class honours) in philosophy, politics and economics and a Master’s degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor’s degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand. After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996. In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. Throughout his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office. Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Since February 2005, he has been serving as leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

7

He'd get my vote!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Seconded.

[hawker9000]

On the other hand...

A weakened PM just "hanging on", relatively powerless and bereft of all his former support just might be preferable to a strong and aggressive newcomer with an agenda. No matter what you thought of his politics, a new emasculated Thaksin might not even be recognizable.

I take it, however, that the King's comments make this scenario unlikely.

[penzman]

Abhisit Vejjajiva, Leader of the Democrat Party and next PM?

After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor’s degree (first class honours) in philosophy, politics and economics and a Master’s degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor’s degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand. After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996. In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. Throughout his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office. Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Since February 2005, he has been serving as leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Abhisit was great when he blasted Suryia (then transport minister) about the CTX scanner scandal. He went on and on without reading notes, unlike most politicians.

He does seem to have a head on his shoulders and an education background that is not obscure, unlike most businessmen-politicians that are now in power. Now for the rest of the Democratic party... I can't say. Up to him to choose the right people.

Edited December 13, 2005 by penzman

[Heng]

I'd vote for Abvisit. Next to the TRT, it's the democrats who treat the business class the best.

[Butterfly]

There is no alternative to Thaksin, that's the problem. I don't mind his public policies, I just don't like his personality. He is the only guy who can make things happen. I hope he stays in power.

The other Democrat rookie doesn't make it for me. Lamb to be sacrificed ? too young.

If only Thaksin would respect a few basic political principles, he would be a great leader. Acting like a crying baby doesn't make him justice. He needs to be a real "team leader", not an ego-centric CEO. He could do great things but instead he is locked in his corporate type BS culture of personality and ego trips. He is no political leader. He needs to learn. Maybe that speech gave him a clue.

Edited December 13, 2005 by Butterfly

[thedude]

ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?

Thaksin’s relationship with the “third pillar”, the media, is getting badly out of control. He thought he had subjugated state-owned media and had major publications on his side, in the style of Singapore and Malaysia. But Thailand is not Singapore or Malaysia. And it is Thaksin’s folly to believe he can sway the press forever.

-- Political Desk, The Nation 2005-12-13

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'd have to agree to this point made by the heavily biased political desk at The Nation. i wonder what their agenda is . the Thai media can rest assured that it is nothing like that found in Singapore or Malaysia, in fact, on reflection, i'd say it is most similar to the type of media found in the Philippines.

just like in the Philippines, the press here is childish and unprofessional, and they assume they have the right to challenge a rightfully elected government by inciting anger and suspicion, by constantly being on the attack and cooking up scandals to sell more papers.

the Philippines is a failed nation. they don't have a hope in solving their deficit problems, multi-nationals have pulled out and are not coming back, their fine and talented people are forced to work overseas, labourers to the world, earning much needed foreign curruncies to prop up the local economy. every 12 months or so, a political storm is cooked up, 'people power' is invoked, and the dumb ass masses sing and dance in the streets so as to overthrow the same people they voted for just months ago. democracy is really only suited for an educated popluation who understands the power of their vote on the fortune of the nation, a population that understands democracy comes with sacrifice.

we know for sure the press is keeping the politicians in check in thailand, but what concerns me more is who the hel_l is keeping the press in check?

[Kido]

Thank you, Thaivisa for daring to write the truth to the public

At first I also believed his policy of" Thai rak Thai " but now after severe years I can see " Rak his empire "more then Thai people.

http://202.60.196.117/breaking/read.php?la...n&newsid=100606

Edited December 13, 2005 by Kido

[zzap]

thai rak thai's control of the media , when it slips , might well bring out a large amount of stories damaging to many of the "people" in senior positions. We can live in hope that these will disgust enough Thai's that any new contenders for positions as leaders of the government will be closely examined.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You wish...

[Guest endure]

ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?

Thaksin’s relationship with the “third pillar”, the media, is getting badly out of control. He thought he had subjugated state-owned media and had major publications on his side, in the style of Singapore and Malaysia. But Thailand is not Singapore or Malaysia. And it is Thaksin’s folly to believe he can sway the press forever.

-- Political Desk, The Nation 2005-12-13

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

just like in the Philippines, the press here is childish and unprofessional, and they assume they have the right to challenge a rightfully elected government by inciting anger and suspicion, by constantly being on the attack and cooking up scandals to sell more papers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not only do the press in a democracy have a right to challenge the goverment, they have a duty to. It's their job - it's the main reason for their existence.

Edited December 13, 2005 by endure

[Heng]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas. Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.

Nothing like a good junta.

[sua yai]

ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?

Thaksin’s relationship with the “third pillar”, the media, is getting badly out of control. He thought he had subjugated state-owned media and had major publications on his side, in the style of Singapore and Malaysia. But Thailand is not Singapore or Malaysia. And it is Thaksin’s folly to believe he can sway the press forever.

-- Political Desk, The Nation 2005-12-13

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'd have to agree to this point made by the heavily biased political desk at The Nation. i wonder what their agenda is . the Thai media can rest assured that it is nothing like that found in Singapore or Malaysia, in fact, on reflection, i'd say it is most similar to the type of media found in the Philippines.

just like in the Philippines, the press here is childish and unprofessional, and they assume they have the right to challenge a rightfully elected government by inciting anger and suspicion, by constantly being on the attack and cooking up scandals to sell more papers.

the Philippines is a failed nation. they don't have a hope in solving their deficit problems, multi-nationals have pulled out and are not coming back, their fine and talented people are forced to work overseas, labourers to the world, earning much needed foreign curruncies to prop up the local economy. every 12 months or so, a political storm is cooked up, 'people power' is invoked, and the dumb ass masses sing and dance in the streets so as to overthrow the same people they voted for just months ago. democracy is really only suited for an educated popluation who understands the power of their vote on the fortune of the nation, a population that understands democracy comes with sacrifice.

we know for sure the press is keeping the politicians in check in thailand, but what concerns me more is who the hel_l is keeping the press in check?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's about the most insightful post I've read on this forum for ages.

Well said. Nothing's perfect.

[Guest endure]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas.  Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.   

Nothing like a good junta. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought the whole idea of having a constitution was to leave all that behind?

[Heng]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas.   Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.   

Nothing like a good junta. 

I thought the whole idea of having a constitution was to leave all that behind?

Since when do constitutions stop men with tanks and guns?

[britmaveric]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas.  Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.   

Nothing like a good junta. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Burma comes to mine errr I mean Myanmar!!

[Heng]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas.   Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.   

Nothing like a good junta. 

Burma comes to mine errr I mean Myanmar!!

Thailand of a good part of the 70's and 80's comes to mind as well. Still a nice place to live, and of course business as usual.

[Patex]

I hope Taksin will stay his hole period

imho, a powerless leader is the best what can happen to a country

Let him fight his own wars, so there is no time left to &lt;deleted&gt; the people.

[Sheryl]

Thank you, Thaivisa for daring to write the truth to the public

At first I also believed his  policy of" Thai rak Thai " but now after severe years I can see " Rak his empire "more then Thai people.

http://202.60.196.117/breaking/read.php?la...n&newsid=100606

TRT = "Taksin rak Taksin"

[chuchok]

I think a lot of whinging board members are forgetting, or perhaps have yet to experience the pleasure of one of Thailand's military run juntas.   Or better yet, for aesthetic purposes, have the army "appoint" a leader like good ol' Anand.   

Nothing like a good junta. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Burma comes to mine errr I mean Myanmar!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thailand of a good part of the 70's and 80's comes to mind as well. Still a nice place to live, and of course business as usual.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The problem ,is that most people forget too quickly this part of Thai history.

[cclub75]

The paper of Nation is interesting. The 5 pillars theory, etc.

But I think they missed one main point : economy.

The Thaksin Revolution was based on economy.

He will fall on economy.

They even created a word for it : "thaksinomics".

The whole idea is very simple (a part to get the family richer, but that's another debate) : inject fuel into the machine. Maximum of it. Of course at one point, the machine will blow off.

-use the devaluation of the THB to fuel export

-boost public spending (crazy "mega projects")

-subsidize many markets and products (oil, gas, electricity, even the rice, do you know that warehouses are full of rice that the gvt buy to farmers at good prices, but they can't sell it on the world market because too expansive, thanks to vietnam and india competition ?)

-boost private spending (buy a new mobile phone, a new pick up, cheap cheap good price)

-big public schemes : 30 THB "health care" scheme

-apparent westernization : CEO "modern" style, shake the hand of G.Bush, etc. But it's only show off : actually nothing change.

To sumarize : tkaksinomics are a very strange cocktail of capitalism, state interventionism and asian show off.

I guess something close to the chinese model... but once again different.

It worked well. Oh yes, not doubt about it. Wonderfull growth rates.

But it can only last a few years.... At the end... the whole system will collapse.

And when the thai economy will collaspe, "naturally" Thaksin will fall. Both are linked like mother and child.

[bugsyjnr]

I can't think of someone who could replace him.

has she got any large skeletons in her closet?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is that Ruby Wax after her hols?