The '111 Club' Returns To New Surroundings: Editorial

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL

The '111 club' returns to new surroundings

The Nation May 13,

BANGKOK:-- Considering her high popularity ratings, Yingluck is unlikely to be in a hurry to bring some of these veterans into her government

On one hand, 111 is a politically staggering number. Assuming that half of the banned politicians, or even one-third of them, can easily win elections, the elected put together will be like a sizeable political party. In other words, the veterans can strengthen any government or destabilise it. And they are just a few days away from being able to do so, officially at least.

On the other hand, the number 111 may not be so formidable under current circumstances. The ruling Pheu Thai Party already holds a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, a "new kid in town" only nine months ago, is enjoying a high popularity rating. In Thai politics, "numbers" are important only when they represent how many seats a political party has in Parliament. For all their experience, backgrounds and influence, the 111 are what they are at the moment - ordinary people who don't even have parliamentary seats.

One may argue that the 111 can wreak havoc on the government if they don't get what they want. Backing up this theory is the obvious influence many of them hold over factions of government MPs. However, this argument overlooks the fact that there is little the 111 can do that they have not done before while they were under the five-year ban. Of course, their leverage will be stronger, but will it be strong enough to dictate to a prime minister staunchly backed up by a massive popular movement and who is a sister of the real patriarch of the ruling party?

Thaksin Shinawatra's aide Noppadon Pattama has suggested that a Cabinet reshuffle may not come as early as people thought. Noppadon's statement probably indicated that current political circumstances are not in favour of the "111 club". Things would have been different if Yingluck had been in a crisis, but the majority of Thai people have either forgotten the flooding last year or forgiven her for the government's awkward response to the disaster. And even while the middle class has been complaining about the rising cost of living, the red-shirt movement that represents Thailand's grass-roots poor has been very understanding about the consumer price index to say the least.

Simply put, Yingluck's political situation does not warrant an immediate Cabinet reshuffle. If she needs another reason to delay it, a reshuffle will make her confront the Jatuporn Prompan issue. The controversial red-shirt leader has been waiting for a Cabinet seat, but giving him a ministerial post would renew political tension and threaten Yingluck's own reconciliation agenda.

Another factor complicating the Cabinet reshuffle is that it's not easy to find a magical balance between making a good Cabinet and keeping Yingluck high above the others. Yingluck has become popular not just because of her unique characteristics, but because of the low ratings of her team-mates. Taking this into account, Thaksin and Yingluck may not be in such a hurry to bring an army of veterans into the government. Political reasons and public interests are supposed to go hand in hand, but there are times when they don't.

The 111 will find themselves returning to a political landscape that doesn't look quite the same. So much has happened over the past five years, and, even now, things need to be assessed and analysed on a daily basis. It remains a fierce politics full of intrigues, but their importance compared with five years ago may have waned a little. Politics will still be something they play primarily for themselves under the name of "public interests", but it will be unwise for anyone to scramble to make up for lost time. Ego has brought Thai politics to near catastrophe even during their absence and this is the political reality the 111 club is returning to.

-- The Nation 2012-05-13