India Topples Thailand As World's Largest Rice Exporter: Usda

[Nisa]

The present Gov. has a lot to answer but would a different Gov. do any better?

It's not exactly the end of the world slipping down to 3rd place?

Many would argue the Democrats scheme to pay a subsidy directly to the farmer would have been better with the benefit of not making Thai rice too expensive on the world market.

I think there is s possibility they anticipated prices going up more if they held back supply on the global market and then sold the rice (which in turn would lower prices) but I think it more plausible they are stock piling the rice to create a rice cartel in that will regulate prices and ensure rice prices are such that farmers can support themselves. Bottom line is they could have been exporting this rice all along at a small loss and it appears they have no plan to reduce the stock pile and actual indications they plan to increase it. Look, if the rice cost $100 and the current market is only $75 then sell it and lose $25 but not selling it is a $100 loss. Clearly they intend to do something with the stockpiles and the most obvious thing is to use it as leverage with other large rice producing nations.

[brianP]

Variety and quality make Thailand the best, even if the quantity is faltering. When in California we tried every kind of rice imported as well as the bland US grown and Thailand was always the best taste and product. PERIOD!

[edwinchester]

The present Gov. has a lot to answer but would a different Gov. do any better?

It's not exactly the end of the world slipping down to 3rd place?

Many would argue the Democrats scheme to pay a subsidy directly to the farmer would have been better with the benefit of not making Thai rice too expensive on the world market.

I think there is s possibility they anticipated prices going up more if they held back supply on the global market and then sold the rice (which in turn would lower prices) but I think it more plausible they are stock piling the rice to create a rice cartel in that will regulate prices and ensure rice prices are such that farmers can support themselves. Bottom line is they could have been exporting this rice all along at a small loss and it appears they have no plan to reduce the stock pile and actual indications they plan to increase it. Look, if the rice cost $100 and the current market is only $75 then sell it and lose $25 but not selling it is a $100 loss. Clearly they intend to do something with the stockpiles and the most obvious thing is to use it as leverage with other large rice producing nations.

I guess only governments can sell the countries staple food crop and a major export at a 25% loss and see only benefit.

There is a huge warehouse near our house being used to store rice. One of our friends works there. He claims that it leaks and is already infested with rats. It is already well past it's best and cannot be sold at world market prices so how it could ever be used as some sort of leverage is beyond me. Give it another few months and it should be next to worthless because if it is sold Thailands reputation for quality rice will be well and truly down the pan.

[SICHONSTEVE]

P.T.P. excellent results concerning your Ponzi rice scam scheme, you have managed to move Thailand from the no.1 rice exporter to the no.3 spot, indeed a laudable action.

Do please tell us what your next great plan is going to be.

Oh it's the plan to make Thailand the hub of destrpyed ecomnomies is it ?

Well you've certainly started off with the right measures in destroying a great industry and the foreign currency it earned each year..

This new cabinet shield is yours to keep as a memento of your unfailing success in failing the Thai nation in your efforts..

.

Look out Thailand - Pakistan's in your wing mirrors!!!

[Nisa]

The present Gov. has a lot to answer but would a different Gov. do any better?

It's not exactly the end of the world slipping down to 3rd place?

Many would argue the Democrats scheme to pay a subsidy directly to the farmer would have been better with the benefit of not making Thai rice too expensive on the world market.

I think there is s possibility they anticipated prices going up more if they held back supply on the global market and then sold the rice (which in turn would lower prices) but I think it more plausible they are stock piling the rice to create a rice cartel in that will regulate prices and ensure rice prices are such that farmers can support themselves. Bottom line is they could have been exporting this rice all along at a small loss and it appears they have no plan to reduce the stock pile and actual indications they plan to increase it. Look, if the rice cost $100 and the current market is only $75 then sell it and lose $25 but not selling it is a $100 loss. Clearly they intend to do something with the stockpiles and the most obvious thing is to use it as leverage with other large rice producing nations.

I guess only governments can sell the countries staple food crop and a major export at a 25% loss and see only benefit.

There is a huge warehouse near our house being used to store rice. One of our friends works there. He claims that it leaks and is already infested with rats. It is already well past it's best and cannot be sold at world market prices so how it could ever be used as some sort of leverage is beyond me. Give it another few months and it should be next to worthless because if it is sold Thailands reputation for quality rice will be well and truly down the pan.

Well past its best? Do you know how long rice can be stored and still remain perfectly good? Your friend should tell the US and the WTO, who are expressing serious concerns, that they should not worry.

[edwinchester]

Rice can be stored for a very long time in ideal conditions and properly controlled environment.

I very much doubt these conditions exist in a damp warehouse where vermin infest the sacks onto which they piss and shit.

[Nisa]

Rice can be stored for a very long time in ideal conditions and properly controlled environment.

I very much doubt these conditions exist in a damp warehouse where vermin infest the sacks onto which they piss and shit.

Sorry it should have occurred to me, that after thousands of years experience storing rice, that the Thais should have checked in with you to learn how to do it properly. One of the reason rice is a staple food for so many in this region is because it can be stored easily for long periods.

A worker sweeps the floor at a rice stockpile in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct. 10.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/photo/2012/10/28/2008079327

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Rice can be stored for a very long time in ideal conditions and properly controlled environment.

I very much doubt these conditions exist in a damp warehouse where vermin infest the sacks onto which they piss and shit.

Sorry it should have occurred to me, that after thousands of years experience storing rice, that the Thais should have checked in with you to learn how to do it properly. One of the reason rice is a staple food for so many in this region is because it can be stored easily for long periods.

A worker sweeps the floor at a rice stockpile in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct. 10.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/photo/2012/10/28/2008079327

In a world class storage facility, he would hoovering the dust up not pushing it around the floor.

[edwinchester]

Rice can be stored for a very long time in ideal conditions and properly controlled environment.

I very much doubt these conditions exist in a damp warehouse where vermin infest the sacks onto which they piss and shit.

Sorry it should have occurred to me, that after thousands of years experience storing rice, that the Thais should have checked in with you to learn how to do it properly. One of the reason rice is a staple food for so many in this region is because it can be stored easily for long periods.

A worker sweeps the floor at a rice stockpile in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct. 10.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/photo/2012/10/28/2008079327

Rice in the past was typically stored for only a few months until the next crop was harvested.

Today if you want to keep it at optimum condition to get the best price on the international market it would be wise to keep it in built for purpose warehouses.

Having to stockpile it for maybe years in humid vermin invested conditions will do nothing for it's quality. Ideal long term storage requires lower than normal temperature and humidity.

[Nisa]

Rice can be stored for a very long time in ideal conditions and properly controlled environment.

I very much doubt these conditions exist in a damp warehouse where vermin infest the sacks onto which they piss and shit.

Sorry it should have occurred to me, that after thousands of years experience storing rice, that the Thais should have checked in with you to learn how to do it properly. One of the reason rice is a staple food for so many in this region is because it can be stored easily for long periods.

A worker sweeps the floor at a rice stockpile in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct. 10.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/photo/2012/10/28/2008079327

In a world class storage facility, he would hoovering the dust up not pushing it around the floor.

Rice in the past was typically stored for only a few months until the next crop was harvested.

Today if you want to keep it at optimum condition to get the best price on the international market it would be wise to keep it in built for purpose warehouses.

Having to stockpile it for maybe years in humid vermin invested conditions will do nothing for it's quality. Ideal long term storage requires lower than normal temperature and humidity.

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Ricardo]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

I admire your confidence, that proper FIFO stock-control is being exercised by the government, and can only hope that you're right.

The consequences of any errors, for Thai-rice's reputation for quality, would not be good.

And Thaksin's claim that stocks late-September were 4 million tons of milled rice, plus 17 million tons of paddy rice, would cover a considerable time's exports, at recent reduced-levels, let's hope that those stocks are instead being consumed quickly-enough by the domestic market ?

Edited October 31, 2012 by Ricardo

[harryfrompattaya]

Up until last year I exported rice to the UK - not big, but a few containers over the course of a year.

With the Thai Rice Exporters price now showing over US$ 1,100 per tonne it makes it unviable to buy from Thailand.

As a 83 year old former pig farmer who make a lot of money. Will tell you the Thai Government will make lots of money in the 18 months as price raises on the world markets. Look what just happen in the USA

Buy rice futures at Chicago Markets I have over 600 contacts far out.

[pmem]

Up until last year I exported rice to the UK - not big, but a few containers over the course of a year.

With the Thai Rice Exporters price now showing over US$ 1,100 per tonne it makes it unviable to buy from Thailand.

As a 83 year old former pig farmer who make a lot of money. Will tell you the Thai Government will make lots of money in the 18 months as price raises on the world markets. Look what just happen in the USA

Buy rice futures at Chicago Markets I have over 600 contacts far out.

Unadulterated crap!

[Nisa]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

I admire your confidence, that proper FIFO stock-control is being exercised by the government, and can only hope that you're right.

The consequences of any errors, for Thai-rice's reputation for quality, would not be good.

And Thaksin's claim that stocks late-September were 4 million tons of milled rice, plus 17 million tons of paddy rice, would cover a considerable time's exports, at recent reduced-levels, let's hope that those stocks are instead being consumed quickly-enough by the domestic market ?

I have no idea what Thaksin is saying because I could care less what he says as anything he says it geared to serve his own purpose be it truth, lies or something in between. But this is an all together different topic.

The only thing I was trying to point out is that there have been no reports, that I am aware, that there is any concern that any of the stock piles of rice is going bad or being infested. And logic would dictate that Thailand has enough experience growing and storing rice that this is almost surely not going to be any serious issue. On the other hand, the politics that have got involved surely is resulting in changes in the market and we'll have to wait and see when all is said and done if it was good for Thailand or not. It is rarely ever good to give up market share but it is not like, to my knowledge, rice production is down or that Thailand could not easily regain its position in the market almost instantly while dealing a devastating blow to its competitors. While they currently are losing revenue, there is a good change it may pay off as an investment in being able to control prices in the future to allow rice farmers to make a living without much government subsidy. This may buy them many years but sooner or later, the small farmer is mostly going to become a thing of the past as Thailand continues to become more industrialized and the quality & price of living increases.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

Having stored perishable goods all over the world, u first learn that bugs love dust, and the only way to collect dust genuinely is to hoover it up. Sweeping just sends it into the air helping the bugs spread around.

From 15 years in an industry that used to lose 1.5% of product to storage pests, down to 0.1% today. Good housekeeping beats a good fumigation.

Would i want the job of storing 10mn tons? 50,000 was hard enough. How they will do it with every warehouse full to bursting and keep the quality God knows. Fortunately it's dry season now.

[slapout]

Nisa you are probably correct about certain Thai's having knowledge of harvesting, storage, transport, selling, etc of rice. What concerns many is virtually none of those people are involved with this program at the government level.

If past government ventures into farm price control (or any term used) are any indication, the big losses come from theft, non existant claims of product, damaged product, etc. We have already seen admission of graft by those buying from the farmer, non existant farmers registered to supply crop, claims inflated as to storage and transport of product, rice being brought in from bordering countries, etc.

After having watched a year of this governments bumbling, many do not want to be patient any longer and feel its time for some benifits for the people of Thailand, not just the po;iticans and their henchmen.

[Thai at Heart]

Nisa you are probably correct about certain Thai's having knowledge of harvesting, storage, transport, selling, etc of rice. What concerns many is virtually none of those people are involved with this program at the government level.

If past government ventures into farm price control (or any term used) are any indication, the big losses come from theft, non existant claims of product, damaged product, etc. We have already seen admission of graft by those buying from the farmer, non existant farmers registered to supply crop, claims inflated as to storage and transport of product, rice being brought in from bordering countries, etc.

After having watched a year of this governments bumbling, many do not want to be patient any longer and feel its time for some benifits for the people of Thailand, not just the po;iticans and their henchmen.

The stock levels meant they were looking at don muang for storage. Thus it's safe to assume they are probably using every square inch and more whether it is perfect or not.

[Nisa]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

Having stored perishable goods all over the world, u first learn that bugs love dust, and the only way to collect dust genuinely is to hoover it up. Sweeping just sends it into the air helping the bugs spread around.

From 15 years in an industry that used to lose 1.5% of product to storage pests, down to 0.1% today. Good housekeeping beats a good fumigation.

Would i want the job of storing 10mn tons? 50,000 was hard enough. How they will do it with every warehouse full to bursting and keep the quality God knows. Fortunately it's dry season now.

You are just confirming further that in the thousands of years Thailand has been known for producing and storing rice, they still don't have it right and a simple education from Thaivisa posters would do them wonders.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Nisa]

Nisa you are probably correct about certain Thai's having knowledge of harvesting, storage, transport, selling, etc of rice. What concerns many is virtually none of those people are involved with this program at the government level.

If past government ventures into farm price control (or any term used) are any indication, the big losses come from theft, non existant claims of product, damaged product, etc. We have already seen admission of graft by those buying from the farmer, non existant farmers registered to supply crop, claims inflated as to storage and transport of product, rice being brought in from bordering countries, etc.

After having watched a year of this governments bumbling, many do not want to be patient any longer and feel its time for some benifits for the people of Thailand, not just the po;iticans and their henchmen.

I don't think Yingluck or any of her colleagues are packing the rice, stacking the rice, transporting the rice or responsible for inspecting the stock piles and rotating out the oldest stock. They may own some warehouses and companies transporting the rice and may pilfer some of it though I doubt this is a big concern given rice is so freaking cheap and for it to be worthwhile they would need to steal and unload many tons of it. But no doubt when governments get involved, there is waste and extra people get to line their pockets.

As for benefiting the people, this scheme has worked great for the rice farmers and that is who it was geared to help. We'll have to wait and see how it pays off for exporters and revenue from Thai Rice Exports in general.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

Having stored perishable goods all over the world, u first learn that bugs love dust, and the only way to collect dust genuinely is to hoover it up. Sweeping just sends it into the air helping the bugs spread around.

From 15 years in an industry that used to lose 1.5% of product to storage pests, down to 0.1% today. Good housekeeping beats a good fumigation.

Would i want the job of storing 10mn tons? 50,000 was hard enough. How they will do it with every warehouse full to bursting and keep the quality God knows. Fortunately it's dry season now.

You are just confirming further that in the thousands of years Thailand has been known for producing and storing rice, they still don't have it right and a simple education from Thaivisa posters would do them wonders.

No, that in most perishable grain storages, the broom is long gone. let's see the export yield at top grade.

If i remember reading correctly, a massive percentage is still in unprocessed form so many off the bugs will be sifted out. But still to store this much volume in for a long period is a massive job.

For your info we fumigated everything 3 times a year for long storage and then at shipment. I understand the largest stack to fumigate for processed rice is normally 200mt. Imagine 10mn. degesch will do very nicely out of this. previously, the product was largely in and out in short order i.e. less than one year. Bear in mind, most pests in the tropics can have double the amount of calender generations than in say Europe our most of the usa because of temperature.

Maybe they succeed to keep the quality, but the odds get much lower if they have a massive volume in less than perfect storage when the dry season ends, which is only say, 4 months away. I don't think Thailand has ever attempted to store this volume for potentially so long, and fir the plan to succeed they will have to, or flog it cheap. They might even consider oxygen reduced storage, but i have never heard if this in Thailand, and it is very expensive.

Storing any perishable like this in Thailand us very difficult because of humidity and pests. Beyond that bear in mind, this isn't Indian strategic stock for sale domestically, but supposedly, premium quality for export. The clock is ticking, 6 months more and the buyers will simply buy what they need from new crop.

I wish them all the best. But i reckon they will have to dump it before the volume pressure pushes the price up sufficiently.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Thai at Heart

[Nisa]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

Having stored perishable goods all over the world, u first learn that bugs love dust, and the only way to collect dust genuinely is to hoover it up. Sweeping just sends it into the air helping the bugs spread around.

From 15 years in an industry that used to lose 1.5% of product to storage pests, down to 0.1% today. Good housekeeping beats a good fumigation.

Would i want the job of storing 10mn tons? 50,000 was hard enough. How they will do it with every warehouse full to bursting and keep the quality God knows. Fortunately it's dry season now.

You are just confirming further that in the thousands of years Thailand has been known for producing and storing rice, they still don't have it right and a simple education from Thaivisa posters would do them wonders.

No, that in most perishable grain storages, the broom is long gone. let's see the export yield at top grade.

If i remember reading correctly, a massive percentage is still in unprocessed form so many off the bugs will be sifted out. But still to store this much volume in for a long period is a massive job.

For your info we fumigated everything 3 times a year for long storage and then at shipment. I understand the largest stack to fumigate for processed rice is normally 200mt. Imagine 10mn. degesch will do very nicely out of this. previously, the product was largely in and out in short order i.e. less than one year. Bear in mind, most pests in the tropics can have double the amount of calender generations than in say Europe our most of the usa because of temperature.

Maybe they succeed to keep the quality, but the odds get much lower if they have a massive volume in less than perfect storage when the dry season ends, which is only say, 4 months away. I don't think Thailand has ever attempted to store this volume for potentially so long, and fir the plan to succeed they will have to, or flog it cheap. They might even consider oxygen reduced storage, but i have never heard if this in Thailand, and it is very expensive.

Storing any perishable like this in Thailand us very difficult because of humidity and pests. Beyond that bear in mind, this isn't Indian strategic stock for sale domestically, but supposedly, premium quality for export. The clock is ticking, 6 months more and the buyers will simply buy what they need from new crop.

I wish them all the best. But i reckon they will have to dump it before the volume pressure pushes the price up sufficiently.

I could be wrong but even clerks at 711 understand FIFO (first in first out) and why they put the newest items received to the back of the shelf. I'm fairly confident when there is a need for export they are not selling the stuff straight from the farm and are turning to the warehouse storage facilities and getting rid of the oldest stock first.

Again, the point is that posters here(including myself) likely have no clue as to the storage methods and distribution of the rice under this scheme but given there have been no reports, that I have heard, of this being a concern let alone a current issue then I would lean towards believing Thais know how to store rice and understand how long they can store it and under what conditions. We also don't know Thailand's true end game when it comes to how they plan to deal with this hug stockpile when it comes to global prices.

Lots of possible downsides to this whole scheme but I just don't see this as being one because it is something they are not only very experienced about but one that is easily avoidable.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Nisa, i like your banter, but to believe what is going on right now in terms of storage is possibly remotely ideal is nonsense.

Thailand has never built or attempted to provide storage for this volume for more than a season. 10mn tons for an extended period is attempted as strategic storage in China or India to prevent famine, not export premium quality.

It's hot, it's humid, goods deteriorate, that's nature. Let's hope they move it on quickly.

[Nisa]

Nisa, i like your banter, but to believe what is going on right now in terms of storage is possibly remotely ideal is nonsense.

Thailand has never built or attempted to provide storage for this volume for more than a season. 10mn tons for an extended period is attempted as strategic storage in China or India to prevent famine, not export premium quality.

It's hot, it's humid, goods deteriorate, that's nature. Let's hope they move it on quickly.

Or at least lets hope they are reading your post so they realize Thailand is hot and humid and that rice can go bad over time ;-)

Might also want to tell somebody to check on the rice they have stored in reserve for emergencies for many years since you seem convinced they have no idea about rotating inventory.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Nisa]

This false sense of superiority sometimes reaches levels beyond comprehension such as believing Thais need to listen to posters here about how to store rice. Politicians getting involved in anything is grounds for skepticism almost anywhere but to truly believe the largest producer of rice in the world and a country who has depended on rice for thousands of years doesn't know how to grow or store rice or the life span of rice in storage ... that is just going a bit too far.

Next we'll be telling them we know more about how to ride motorcycles on busy sidewalks.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Nisa, i like your banter, but to believe what is going on right now in terms of storage is possibly remotely ideal is nonsense.

Thailand has never built or attempted to provide storage for this volume for more than a season. 10mn tons for an extended period is attempted as strategic storage in China or India to prevent famine, not export premium quality.

It's hot, it's humid, goods deteriorate, that's nature. Let's hope they move it on quickly.

Or at least lets hope they are reading your post so they realize Thailand is hot and humid and that rice can go bad over time ;-)

Might also want to tell somebody to check on the rice they have stored in reserve for emergencies for many years since you seem convinced they have no idea about rotating inventory.

Rotating inventory? The stuff is all over the country, and in 12 different export types from hommali down to sticky. Space will be made depending on what the client wants.

Do you think they have facilities to store this volume?

[Thai at Heart]

This false sense of superiority sometimes reaches levels beyond comprehension such as believing Thais need to listen to posters here about how to store rice. Politicians getting involved in anything is grounds for skepticism almost anywhere but to truly believe the largest producer of rice in the world and a country who has depended on rice for thousands of years doesn't know how to grow or store rice or the life span of rice in storage ... that is just going a bit too far.

Next we'll be telling them we know more about how to ride motorcycles on busy sidewalks.

as i wrote, i never said they don't know how to store rice, but that they don't have facilities to store this volume for a long period. They know this better than u or I.

There are a some great storages for rice around, but once you have to go back to places that haven't been used for a long time, they are a mess, I've seen them.

I think you have no idea how large the scale of the job they have to do is.

[Ricardo]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

I admire your confidence, that proper FIFO stock-control is being exercised by the government, and can only hope that you're right.

The consequences of any errors, for Thai-rice's reputation for quality, would not be good.

And Thaksin's claim that stocks late-September were 4 million tons of milled rice, plus 17 million tons of paddy rice, would cover a considerable time's exports, at recent reduced-levels, let's hope that those stocks are instead being consumed quickly-enough by the domestic market ?

I have no idea what Thaksin is saying because I could care less what he says as anything he says it geared to serve his own purpose be it truth, lies or something in between. But this is an all together different topic.

The only thing I was trying to point out is that there have been no reports, that I am aware, that there is any concern that any of the stock piles of rice is going bad or being infested. And logic would dictate that Thailand has enough experience growing and storing rice that this is almost surely not going to be any serious issue. On the other hand, the politics that have got involved surely is resulting in changes in the market and we'll have to wait and see when all is said and done if it was good for Thailand or not. It is rarely ever good to give up market share but it is not like, to my knowledge, rice production is down or that Thailand could not easily regain its position in the market almost instantly while dealing a devastating blow to its competitors. While they currently are losing revenue, there is a good change it may pay off as an investment in being able to control prices in the future to allow rice farmers to make a living without much government subsidy. This may buy them many years but sooner or later, the small farmer is mostly going to become a thing of the past as Thailand continues to become more industrialized and the quality & price of living increases.

"Dealing a devastating blow to its competitors" would involve dumping at an even-higher level of loss, to the government & tax-payers, I suspect ? That's what the US-producers were worried about.

"no reports ... rice going bad or being infested", agreed but then it's hardly something they would be shouting about.

Even if stock-rotation is fine, the fact remains that production is being boosted, as farmers and cross-border informal-traders chase the higher government-set price. Locally I'm seeing fields which were always used to grow tobacco, this year its down to rice, I suspect production may well increase with the new crop.

Meanwhile exports are well-down on previous years, and one imagines that domestic-consumption is reasonably static, so the average-age of current-stocks has to be growing, even if it is well-stored.

Rice doesn't improve with age, unlike some other products, or does it ? So a potential-problem is growing, even if normal volumes of exports resume immediately, and the previous rice-exporters (now on reduced-supplies or cut-out completely & therefore understandably miffed) suggest that they're losing sales to traditional-buyers of Thai rice. And the secrecy about government-to-government sales, and delivery-dates for any deals which are confirmed, doesn't inspire confidence.

I agree that, as modern farming-methods & rural labour-shortages spread, the average production-unit size will grow. Whether that will help the poor small/local rice-farmer much is less-certain. Will there always be factory-work to absorb the younger-generation, or will they be forced to migrate to ASEAN in-search of work, rather than just to Bangkok ? Or will they work for less than Vietnamese & Indian agricultural-workers ?

I worry about unhappy times ahead, and fear that limited government-resources which are currently supporting too-high a subsidised-price for rice, might be better spent on education to prepare the poor for the imminently-changing world.

I admire your always-positive take on things, as you say we'll have to wait and see, whether Thailand on-its-own can increase future world-market prices. I myself suspect not.

[Nisa]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

I admire your confidence, that proper FIFO stock-control is being exercised by the government, and can only hope that you're right.

The consequences of any errors, for Thai-rice's reputation for quality, would not be good.

And Thaksin's claim that stocks late-September were 4 million tons of milled rice, plus 17 million tons of paddy rice, would cover a considerable time's exports, at recent reduced-levels, let's hope that those stocks are instead being consumed quickly-enough by the domestic market ?

I have no idea what Thaksin is saying because I could care less what he says as anything he says it geared to serve his own purpose be it truth, lies or something in between. But this is an all together different topic.

The only thing I was trying to point out is that there have been no reports, that I am aware, that there is any concern that any of the stock piles of rice is going bad or being infested. And logic would dictate that Thailand has enough experience growing and storing rice that this is almost surely not going to be any serious issue. On the other hand, the politics that have got involved surely is resulting in changes in the market and we'll have to wait and see when all is said and done if it was good for Thailand or not. It is rarely ever good to give up market share but it is not like, to my knowledge, rice production is down or that Thailand could not easily regain its position in the market almost instantly while dealing a devastating blow to its competitors. While they currently are losing revenue, there is a good change it may pay off as an investment in being able to control prices in the future to allow rice farmers to make a living without much government subsidy. This may buy them many years but sooner or later, the small farmer is mostly going to become a thing of the past as Thailand continues to become more industrialized and the quality & price of living increases.

"Dealing a devastating blow to its competitors" would involve dumping at an even-higher level of loss, to the government & tax-payers, I suspect ? That's what the US-producers were worried about.

"no reports ... rice going bad or being infested", agreed but then it's hardly something they would be shouting about.

Even if stock-rotation is fine, the fact remains that production is being boosted, as farmers and cross-border informal-traders chase the higher government-set price. Locally I'm seeing fields which were always used to grow tobacco, this year its down to rice, I suspect production may well increase with the new crop.

Meanwhile exports are well-down on previous years, and one imagines that domestic-consumption is reasonably static, so the average-age of current-stocks has to be growing, even if it is well-stored.

Rice doesn't improve with age, unlike some other products, or does it ? So a potential-problem is growing, even if normal volumes of exports resume immediately, and the previous rice-exporters (now on reduced-supplies or cut-out completely & therefore understandably miffed) suggest that they're losing sales to traditional-buyers of Thai rice. And the secrecy about government-to-government sales, and delivery-dates for any deals which are confirmed, doesn't inspire confidence.

I agree that, as modern farming-methods & rural labour-shortages spread, the average production-unit size will grow. Whether that will help the poor small/local rice-farmer much is less-certain. Will there always be factory-work to absorb the younger-generation, or will they be forced to migrate to ASEAN in-search of work, rather than just to Bangkok ? Or will they work for less than Vietnamese & Indian agricultural-workers ?

I worry about unhappy times ahead, and fear that limited government-resources which are currently supporting too-high a subsidised-price for rice, might be better spent on education to prepare the poor for the imminently-changing world.

I admire your always-positive take on things, as you say we'll have to wait and see, whether Thailand on-its-own can increase future world-market prices. I myself suspect not.

It is really the threat of delivering such a blow that gives Thailand leverage and their goal wouldn't be to put their competitors out of business but simply to form a group with them to control rice prices. This has been something they have wanted to do for years.

I don't think I am being overly positive in believing Thais know how to store rice and rotate inventory but on the other hand I think it the height of pessimism and false superiority to believe they don't.

And agree, it is a wait and see situation of how this pans out. Thailand is trying to save a dying bread (the small farmer) and most countries have not has much success in this including the US be it farm aid concerts or paying farms to grow things nobody wants or simply paying them not to grow things. But Thailand does have an advantage in that it produces so much rice and can use these stock piles as leverage given the government can take the loss but not sure other governments will step up to protect their rice farmers if Thailand floods the market with cheap rice ... might just be easier for the main rice producing nations to agree to control (inflate) prices which would be a win-win for everyone but the consumer.

[edwinchester]

Again, more proof that the Thai Rice industry has so much to learn from the posters on Thai Visa. Hopefully they will read these posts to learn how to harvest rice every couple months. Maybe also explain to them, because clearly they don't know, that selling the older stuff first would be smart.

You don't live in a productive rice area do you because if you did you would know it is perfectly possible to grow 4 crops per year.

As for the storage issue I don't need to explain anything to Thais as they already know how to store it and have been warned by their own that much of the present store is not in ideal conditions.

As for selling the older stuff first that would be advisable as it's value is more likely going down than up.

[Nisa]

You don't live in a productive rice area do you because if you did you would know it is perfectly possible to grow 4 crops per year.

It is possible to grown rice on the moon too but I know of nobody who has tried it because it would be extremely costly and of course make little sense. I'll be happy to admit I am wrong if you can provide one link to where farmers in Thailand are growing 4 crops of rice per year on their land in any economically fashionable way.

And no, I don't live among the rice patties (thankfully) but believe it is common knowledge their is one planting season and one harvesting season per year. But again will gladly admit my mistake of what I thought was common knowledge if you can back up your claim and will actually help spread the word about this so the farmers only growing one harvest a year can quadruple their money.

Edited November 2, 2012 by Nisa