Obama Likely To Win Another Presidential Term: Gallup Poll

[Jingthing]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

[keemapoot]

In some states, the polls have already been open for days now, and there have been long queues as well. Obviously results don't start to come in until the polls on ELECTION DAY are closed.

Yes, though everyone agrees once the fat lady sings (major US TV networks ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN) predict a winner based on exit polls, that is 99.9% sure, and we can expect that sometime tomorrow morning Thai time maybe 10-11AM?

[Jingthing]

In some states, the polls have already been open for days now, and there have been long queues as well. Obviously results don't start to come in until the polls on ELECTION DAY are closed.

Jingthing, can you please give a quick non technical explanation of what the 'electoral collge' is and how it contibutes to the result. Thanks.

Each state has a specific number of electoral college votes based on a formula related to population. (So Delaware has 3 and California has 55.) Each state is a separate election. If a candidate wins in a state even by one vote, they get ALL of the electoral college votes. 270 needed to win.

The national popular vote has no impact on who is elected.

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm

Edited November 6, 2012 by Jingthing

[samran]

In some states, the polls have already been open for days now, and there have been long queues as well. Obviously results don't start to come in until the polls on ELECTION DAY are closed.

Jingthing, can you please give a quick non technical explanation of what the 'electoral collge' is and how it contibutes to the result. Thanks.

here you go:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-us-election-what-you-need-to-know-20121106-28vee.html

[thaibeachlovers]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

Polls are just something invented so that the media has something to rabbit on endlessly about till we are all totally bored.

Polls can be weighted to produce whatever result is desired.

Polls are an INDICATION of the outcome, they are NOT the outcome.

[Jingthing]

In some states, the polls have already been open for days now, and there have been long queues as well. Obviously results don't start to come in until the polls on ELECTION DAY are closed.

Yes, though everyone agrees once the fat lady sings (major US TV networks ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN) predict a winner based on exit polls, that is 99.9% sure, and we can expect that sometime tomorrow morning Thai time maybe 10-11AM?

That depends on how close and messy it is. The networks were burned in 2000 calling Florida too early and declaring Gore the winner. So they would be likely to be a little more careful in a similar scenario.

[Jingthing]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

Polls are just something invented so that the media has something to rabbit on endlessly about till we are all totally bored.

Polls can be weighted to produce whatever result is desired.

Polls are an INDICATION of the outcome, they are NOT the outcome.

That's right. Polls are not the outcome. OK?

[Chicog]

Unless something drastic happens, you'll probably have a fair idea of who's winning when you wake up tomorrow (Midnight EST = 0500GMT=Midday Thailand?).

Sounds like an interesting liquid breakfast could be had.

[thaibeachlovers]

In some states, the polls have already been open for days now, and there have been long queues as well. Obviously results don't start to come in until the polls on ELECTION DAY are closed.

Jingthing, can you please give a quick non technical explanation of what the 'electoral collge' is and how it contibutes to the result. Thanks.

Each state has a specific number of electoral college votes based on a formula related to population. (So Delaware has 3 and California has 55.) Each state is a separate election. If a candidate wins in a state even by one vote, they get ALL of the electoral college votes. 270 needed to win.

The national popular vote has no impact on who is elected.

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm

It's probably time to change to a more direct election of the president by the voters, after all, he is the president of everyone, not of the individual states. At present, one can win the popular vote and lose the college.

However, I believe it is in the Constitution, so probably rather hard to change.

[Jingthing]

Unless something drastic happens, you'll probably have a fair idea of who's winning when you wake up tomorrow (Midnight EST = 0500GMT=Midday Thailand?).

Sounds like an interesting liquid breakfast could be had.

As I predict a decisive Obama win, I would agree. But if it is very close, it could drag on for many hours or even days with recounts, legal cases.

[keemapoot]

Sounds like an interesting liquid breakfast could be had.

I agree. Coffee and brandy for Obama supporters, sour milk for Romney supporters.

[SteeleJoe]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

Polls are just something invented so that the media has something to rabbit on endlessly about till we are all totally bored.

Polls can be weighted to produce whatever result is desired.

Polls are an INDICATION of the outcome, they are NOT the outcome.

Wait, which is it?

Polls are just an invention for media purposes

Polls can be made to say whatever the pollster's want

Poll are an indication of the results

The first two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive but if polls are just an invention meant to provide the with news and can be skewed in any possible direction, how could they possibly be an indication of anything at all?

By the way, I'm assuming you aren't one of those people who spent a fair bit of time about Romney's improved polling not long ago (the Republicans went from saying the polls were biased/fixed to suddenly talking about how the polls were showing a strong showing for Romney...were you one of them?)

[Chicog]

62% of people on this thread think statistics are made up on the spot.

[theblether]

You have most likely seen something like this before however I did this little test last night and I was quite surprised at the result........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259

I won't say what my result was......have a look for yourselves.

[theblether]

62% of people on this thread think statistics are made up on the spot.

It's 38%, get your facts straight eh?

[thaibeachlovers]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

Polls are just something invented so that the media has something to rabbit on endlessly about till we are all totally bored.

Polls can be weighted to produce whatever result is desired.

Polls are an INDICATION of the outcome, they are NOT the outcome.

Wait, which is it?

Polls are just an invention for media purposes

Polls can be made to say whatever the pollster's want

Poll are an indication of the results

The first two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive but if polls are just an invention meant to provide the with news and can be skewed in any possible direction, how could they possibly be an indication of anything at all?

By the way, I'm assuming you aren't one of those people who spent a fair bit of time about Romney's improved polling not long ago (the Republicans went from saying the polls were biased/fixed to suddenly talking about how the polls were showing a strong showing for Romney...were you one of them?)

I don't believe the polls any more than I believe in "statistics", which can also prove whatever the compiler wants. However, they are ONE indication among many of the way the wind is blowing, so to speak.

I have mentioned the polls, but to my recoillection only in rebutal of someone that was claiming the polls favoured Obama over Romney, despite other polls claiming they were in a dead heat ( within the margin of error ). As I don't believe they are accurate, I doubt that I would have been using them to support the case for a Romney win. At this point in time, no one knows.

[samran]

who was it running through the streets of Pattaya naked if Romney wins again?

[theblether]

who was it running through the streets of Pattaya naked if Romney wins again?

Do you mind I'm having my breakfast

[thaibeachlovers]

What no one seems to have taken into account is the aftermath of Sandy. As Obama just flew in and out, and thousands are still without homes, power or fuel, it is possible that anger over their conditions will result in either a swing against Obama, or at least a no vote. It'll be interesting to see the voting result in New York and New Jersey states.

Edited November 6, 2012 by thaibeachlovers

[samran]

What no one seems to have taken into account is the aftermath of Sandy. As Obama just flew in and out, and thousands are still without homes, power or fuel, it is possible that anger over their conditions will result in either a swing against Obama, or at least a no vote. It'll be interesting to see the voting result in New York and New Jersey states.

They are solid Democrat states.

I know you hate polls, but:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html

[Chicog]

What no one seems to have taken into account is the aftermath of Sandy. As Obama just flew in and out, and thousands are still without homes, power or fuel, it is possible that anger over their conditions will result in either a swing against Obama, or at least a no vote. It'll be interesting to see the voting result in New York and New Jersey states.

I think you've been watching Fox again. The general feeling of Obama's handling of the Sandy aftermath was overwhelmingly positive.

Hannity in particular has just been showing the same isolated incidents of swearing and frustration and making it out to be the norm everywhere, which clearly it isn't.

If it's that bad, they won't be able to get to a polling station anyway.

[thaibeachlovers]

What no one seems to have taken into account is the aftermath of Sandy. As Obama just flew in and out, and thousands are still without homes, power or fuel, it is possible that anger over their conditions will result in either a swing against Obama, or at least a no vote. It'll be interesting to see the voting result in New York and New Jersey states.

I think you've been watching Fox again. The general feeling of Obama's handling of the Sandy aftermath was overwhelmingly positive.

Hannity in particular has just been showing the same isolated incidents of swearing and frustration and making it out to be the norm everywhere, which clearly it isn't.

If it's that bad, they won't be able to get to a polling station anyway.

I only put it out there as something that MIGHT affect the vote. I'll certainly be watching with interest.

Fox is the only channel that would publicise it, as the other channels all love Obama so much they never put anything bad about him on.

BTW, they are providing buses to take people to polling stations if they can't get there on their own.

[thaibeachlovers]

What no one seems to have taken into account is the aftermath of Sandy. As Obama just flew in and out, and thousands are still without homes, power or fuel, it is possible that anger over their conditions will result in either a swing against Obama, or at least a no vote. It'll be interesting to see the voting result in New York and New Jersey states.

They are solid Democrat states.

I know you hate polls, but:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html

I don't HATE polls, I just don't take much notice of them.

[scorecard]

I think that is correct. Nobody knows who is winning yet. However, it is now clear based on accepted standards, POLLING, that Obama is favored to win and a Romney win would be seen as an upset.

Polls are just something invented so that the media has something to rabbit on endlessly about till we are all totally bored.

Polls can be weighted to produce whatever result is desired.

Polls are an INDICATION of the outcome, they are NOT the outcome.

That's right. Polls are not the outcome. OK?

Thanks to all, now have a good enough understanding of how it works, and late tomorrow morning will look for a result.

Edited November 6, 2012 by scorecard

[Chicog]

Poll closing times in key states

• Virginia 0000 GMT (1900 EST)
  
• N Carolina 0030 GMT (1930 EST)
  
• Ohio 0030 GMT (1930 EST)
  
• Florida 0100 GMT (2000 EST)
  
• New Hampshire 0100 GMT (2000 EST)
  
• Pennsylvania 0100 GMT (2000 EST)
  
• Colorado 0200 GMT (2100 EST)
  
• Wisconsin 0200 GMT (2100 EST)
  
• Iowa 0300 GMT (2200 EST)
  
• Nevada 0300 GMT (2200 EST)
  

[Chicog]

#Obama and #Romney condoms on sale in #Chicago bearing the legend: 'Either way you're screwed' pic.twitter.com/ahQBENar

(If you can't see the text, the Obama ones say "WON'T BREAK as easily as his promises", while the Romney ones say "GREAT FOR ANY POSITION".

Edited November 6, 2012 by Chicog

[Jingthing]

You have most likely seen something like this before however I did this little test last night and I was quite surprised at the result........

http://www.bbc.co.uk...canada-19794259

I won't say what my result was......have a look for yourselves.

I will say. I got Obama 294 which interestingly is pretty much what I have said for many weeks now: Obama by about 25 over the needed 270

Have y'all checked out the famous 7-11 coffee cup poll? People vote based on the cup they choose for coffee, that all American drink of choice (feel sorry for Romney on that one, life without coffee ... sad) ...

Romney people may be needing something stronger than coffee!

You can say polls don't matter but that's usually what the LOSERS say when the polls are massively against them. Whose side would you rather be on today if you hoped to win? Also keep in mind there is a strange irrational segment of the voting public that vote based on the consensus mass perception of who the winner is going to be, whoever it is. Those people (not my heroes but a vote is a vote) see the polls. They are going to go Obama.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Jingthing

[screwit]

Been in florida in a family with 4 kids, and they all want Obama but don't talk about politic.

They are clueless, and they don't even know where I was coming from, and didn't even ask questions. Not curious, just consumer of gadgets, and all have latest phone, and high speed Internet, and flat tv.

They seem happy with their life. thinking it s the best of the best I presume.

Gosh was a nightmare for me to be in a family with no much discernment.

Sky is falling on them and bankruptcy of the whole capitalism system is failing.... And they still think it s normal,

Please kick Obama out of this white house.

Edited November 6, 2012 by screwit

[Jingthing]

Been in florida in a family with 4 kids, and they all want Obama but don't talk about politic.

They are clueless, and they don't even know where I was coming from, and didn't even ask questions. Not curious, just consumer of gadgets, and all have latest phone, and high speed Internet, and flat tv.

They seem happy with their life. thinking it s the best of the best I presume.

Gosh was a nightmare for me to be in a family with no much discernment.

Sky is falling on them and bankruptcy of the whole capitalism system is failing.... And they still think it s normal,

Please kick Obama out of this white house.

Too late for you to do a t.v. ad for Romney. Oh well ... !

Many voters on both sides are low information voters. That's one reason DEMOCRATS want to invest more in EDUCATION.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Jingthing

[Credo]

Been in florida in a family with 4 kids, and they all want Obama but don't talk about politic.

They are clueless, and they don't even know where I was coming from, and didn't even ask questions. Not curious, just consumer of gadgets, and all have latest phone, and high speed Internet, and flat tv.

They seem happy with their life. thinking it s the best of the best I presume.

Gosh was a nightmare for me to be in a family with no much discernment.

Sky is falling on them and bankruptcy of the whole capitalism system is failing.... And they still think it s normal,

Please kick Obama out of this white house.

Sure. Will do. And once Obama is out of the White House these folks will suddenly become intelligent?