Obama Likely To Win Another Presidential Term: Gallup Poll

[Jingthing]

I don't support candidates on self interest alone. More interested in the direction I want my country to go in. Forward. Not back to the dark ages.

That said, in the impossible event that a candidate like Romney promised to extend Medicare to expats, I would listen to that and be tempted (we're all human) but all things being equal would STILL oppose him.

Edited November 1, 2012 by Jingthing

[lomatopo]

Speaking of polls. Here's two amusing ones, from the states that know them best:

Illinois: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 57, Romney 41 Obama +16

Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 59, Romney 40 Obama +19

If Romney was such a hot Guv of Mass, why do they hate him now?

It took me a few minutes to stop laughing at what was said and what was not said in this post. Romney did get elected in a State with the Democrats holding a large majority of registered voters over the GOP. Then the very funny post, Obama 57, Romney 41 and the writer thinks this is a knock against Romney and shows what the voters in Mass think. Well I think that is pretty good for Romney and a kick in the butt for Obama. The GOP only has 11% of the registered voters in the entire State of Mass, yet Romney is pulling in 41%.

Post another joke for me-I love these I will tell you my version and not tell all the facts. Just as the original article means little. The real Gallup poll, based on a proven method of polling, has Romney ahead 51% to 45% for Obama-Oct 28 daily tracking poll Gallup. This article is based on an opinion poll of people who think who will win.

Gallup has been right on picking every President except one based on their polling of registered voters and voters likely to vote. Romney up by 6% now. Start crowing like a rooster after the election, it is really to close to call by either side, except by those who want to push their parties choice. Have a beer and have some fun. PS Obamacare will not cover you in Thailand just the way Medicare does not cover you. Pay all your life and not covered by Medicare because you live in Thailand where medical costs are cheaper

The Commonwealth voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984. We've had Republican Governors, in addition to Gov. Romney.

Obviously a margin of 57:41 means that, in all likelihood, all 11 of Massachusetts' Electoral College votes go to President Obama.

57:41 is a bit of a crushing defeat for the state which Gov. Romney still claims as his primary residence.

[yourauntbob]

What I find disingenuous is the convienient amnesia that comes about from GOP'ers on debt when it wasn't an issue for the GOP 4 or 8 years ago.

I'm Republican and I remember when the Republicans lost control of Congress in the mid-term 2006 elections (btw - which means the Dems were in control for the two years before the collapse). When they lost, I said, "Good. They've been spending way too much. Maybe this loss will remind them that they are supposed to be the party against wild spending". Have they learned, really? Or are they just pretending now that they are in the minority? I'm afraid that once they get in the majority they will start their spending habits again. But that's just what I think might happen. All of us already KNOW what the Democrats have done and will continue to do - spend, spend, spend - and pay for it with $90 billion in additional taxes on the rich. Woo-hoo.

Agreed, my biggest hesitation is that Romney will go with the flow and keep on running up the credit card. Its hard for all politicians to stop spending other peoples money. There is no doubt in my mind that another term for Obama will put the debt well north of 20 trillion so I go with the gamble over the sure loss.

[koheesti]

Afterall, religion wise, the right of the GOP and the Taliban aren't too far apart when it comes to their social views.

That is beyond ridiculous.

[virtualtraveller]

Polls always tighten up, and Super Storm Sandy is the final game changer, so far Obama has done the right things to regain the initiative and last minute sympathy, Romney's late run is over, he was too far behind to start with, but looking at how things panned out in 2000, anything is possible, still too close to call. Ultimately I think it will come down to the weather on the day and how many of Cleveland/Cincinnati/Dayton/Columbus/Akron/Canton working class are bothered to go and vote to retain Obamacare, traditionally the Dem voters are more flakey, and it's won or lost in Ohio's working class.

[Neurath]

The far right wing mantra has been for a long time that Obama is the worst President in history. As ludicrous as such a claim would be on the merits alone, Presidential historians can never determine such a thing this early. However, if Romney loses, I daresay historians will say, and he would qualify as the worst Presidential candidate in history. He has been running for President nonstop for nearly 8 years! In an election where over $1 billion has been spent to elect the guy, he sure has to get some kind of historical distinction.

Historical distinction? Here's what will happen, I'm sure of it: Oblivion. He will be forgotten and he will be disowned by his own party. There will be noisy dissension in the Republican Cave with one half squealing that Romney's run to the far right in the Primaries lost them the election and the other half squealing that it was his run to the center during the Campaign that cost them the election. One or the other side might prevail in this fight - the only place where it will never, and can never, be decided is inside Mitt Romney's head. Inside that place there is no principled place to stand.

[arthurriding]

From what I've been told by some rednecks here in Issan the only impartial news service is Fox news. Unsure if this is 100% true however.

I hope that you are joking Angsta or being ironic. Saying that Fox News is a source of truth is like saying Pravda always told the truth or Hitler always told the truth. Fox News is one of the biggest bunch of liars on the entire planet and that's saying something as there are a whole bunch of liars around. Fox News are masters of the art of the Big Lie, tell it big and tell it often and there will always be some poor saps around who actually believe them. The fact that Fox News at present has the highest number of viewers of any US news channel just shows how many gullible people there are in the USA. Plenty of decent honourable Americans around but you won't find any of them regularly watching Fox News!

Spoken like someone who has never or only rarely watched it.

When I was on Samui I used to take part in a local pub quiz every week. One of our toughest competitors each week was a group of liberal ladies from the USA and Canada. They were a sharp bunch. One day, the picture round was "Famous People Named Sean (and its various spellings)". We switched answer sheets to check scores and I was shocked to see that they didn't recognize Sean Hannity of Fox News. I even asked afterwards and they didn't even recognize his name. ANY self-respecting North American liberal knows who their "enemy" is, and Sean Hannity is the most shameless right-wing talking head on TV.

Back to the topic, I'm sure Obama will win. Things are looking good for Romney in the polls, but just like the recent Supreme Court decision on Obamacare, conventional wisdom is often wrong. I think I'll move back to the USA just so I can leave the country after he wins his second term.

Unfortunately I have had to watch Fox news all too often as often it is the only news channel available in some hotels, cruise ships etc. - because of their low pricing policies to raise market share. Anyway that's up to them, but why on earth should I, or anyone else, bother about who is the latest idiot spouting rubbish on Fox News. There are plenty of them and today it is idiot X, tomorrow it is idiot Y and then idiot Z and so on. When I am taking out the garbage I don't check to see which is the biggest piece of garbage today, I just put the garbage out for the collectors to take away. The 'enemy' is not Fox News, the 'enemy' is lies. It is just that Fox News is one of the main perpetrators of lies in modern American society so it's role is important. If Romney does win the election (God forbid) to a significant degree it will be because of the lies spouted forth by Fox News!

[Neurath]

Afterall, religion wise, the right of the GOP and the Taliban aren't too far apart when it comes to their social views.

That is beyond ridiculous.

Not really. Have a look at the documentary Jesus Camp in iso. Pretty much looks like an off the wall Madrassa.

[Chicog]

Obama looked and sounded like the man for the job when speaking to the media with Christie. Said what he was prioritising, how they were doing it, and so on.

So much better than Romney's "We're going to fix it but we can't tell you how" approach.

I think this little squall has probably worked in Obama's favour.

Now if he can just produce the bodies of a certain bunch of Libyan Al Qaeda terrorists by Tuesday as well (or some identifiable remains), he should be a shoo-in.

[Wandering]

Instead of taking one poll as the end all be all with a mere 1000 sampling.

Here is what the real polls are saying

http://www.nationalpolls.com//battleground-state.html

Obama vs Romney (National Polls)

Pollster End Date Obama Romney Rasmussen Reports 10/30/2012 47 49 Rasmussen Tracking 10/29/2012 47 49 ABC News/Wash Post 10/29/2012 48 49 Rasmussen Tracking 10/28/2012 47 49 CBS News/NY Times 10/28/2012 48 47 Pew Research 10/28/2012 47 47 Gallup Tracking 10/28/2012 46 51

[hellodolly]

What I find disingenuous is the convienient amnesia that comes about from GOP'ers on debt when it wasn't an issue for the GOP 4 or 8 years ago.

I'm Republican and I remember when the Republicans lost control of Congress in the mid-term 2006 elections (btw - which means the Dems were in control for the two years before the collapse). When they lost, I said, "Good. They've been spending way too much. Maybe this loss will remind them that they are supposed to be the party against wild spending". Have they learned, really? Or are they just pretending now that they are in the minority? I'm afraid that once they get in the majority they will start their spending habits again. But that's just what I think might happen. All of us already KNOW what the Democrats have done and will continue to do - spend, spend, spend - and pay for it with $90 billion in additional taxes on the rich. Woo-hoo.

Two seperate philosophies here as far as I can see.

Dems: Pump priming the economy. Keep going until it starts. Varying views on the size of government. In the meantime, try and close the gap between outgoings and tax receipts.

GOP: Simply don't believe in government. Best way to get rid of this is to create a structural deficit. Taxes ALWAYS less than outgoings. Eventually the whole facade will collapse in on itself. Voila - smaller government.

Neither party will allow each other to do what they want - so we have the situation you have now.

The honest answer? For me you are going to have to raise tax some for a bunch of people. Apply a consumtion based VAT/GST nation wide.

And massive cuts. Get rid of agricultural subsidies, get rid of SS benefits for anyone entering the workforce NOW (replaced with portable private pensions).

But that is just me. Neither side has the guts to do what is needed, so things will continue on.

Also cut the military spending The states already has the capabilities to kill every man women and child on the planet ten times. Sure it will cut jobs bit they are jobs that have not been needed in a long time.

They can save a ton of money by cutting the agriculture subsidies. Stop starting wars they can not win. Elect the Republicans and we will be at war with Iran.

[robokop]

Even if Obama wins it will be the shortest presidency in history when everything behind the Benghazi attack is revealed

sure - the teabagger tinfoil hatter loonies are going to be in meltdown trying to prove that one.

speaking of hate, you words are dripping hate with no mention of Benghazi, just hateful name calling. Sort of what you see on DailyKos-pure hate and name calling. Fox vs DailyKos or HuffPo or MSNBC or CNN, I take Fox any day.

[Baloo22]

From what I've been told by some rednecks here in Issan the only impartial news service is Fox news. Unsure if this is 100% true however.

From what I've been told by some rednecks here in Issan the only impartial news service is Fox news. Unsure if this is 100% true however.

I hope that you are joking Angsta or being ironic. Saying that Fox News is a source of truth is like saying Pravda always told the truth or Hitler always told the truth. Fox News is one of the biggest bunch of liars on the entire planet and that's saying something as there are a whole bunch of liars around. Fox News are masters of the art of the Big Lie, tell it big and tell it often and there will always be some poor saps around who actually believe them. The fact that Fox News at present has the highest number of viewers of any US news channel just shows how many gullible people there are in the USA. Plenty of decent honourable Americans around but you won't find any of them regularly watching Fox News!

The gullible people are the ones that still belive anything that they are told by the so-called "mainstream" media. Let alone the stupid saps that think that BBC possesses a shred of integrity.

Fox News is nowhere near as deceitful and dishonest as the big so-called “mainstream” media outlets. Left-wing news outfits like New York Times, Washington Post, CBS, NBC, and ABC have had long runs with consistent left-wing slanting of their “reporting” and gone on to outright fabrication. In recent years they have become even more blatant with their biased “news” coverage.

A veteran news reporter, correspondent, and producer, Bernie Goldberg, worked for 28 years for CBS and has won 12 Emmy awards for excellence in journalism. In 1996 he wrote a column for the Wall Street Journal titled “The Networks Need a Reality Check” that exposed the left-wing bias in the major news outlets. Of course he became an instant pariah at CBS, a major enemy of network anchor Dan Rather, and was eventually forced out.

His being forced out of CBS actually benefited our society. It allowed him to write his 2001 book "Bias: A Veteran CBS Reporter's Account of How the Media Distorts the News". In Bias, he documents in detail the pervasive left-wing bias throughout the so-called “mainstream” media outlets. If you really want to see the inside workings of the major U.S. media outlets, you need to read this book. Excellent and informative reading!

[hellodolly]

Instead of taking one poll as the end all be all with a mere 1000 sampling.

Here is what the real polls are saying

http://www.nationalp...ound-state.html

Obama vs Romney (National Polls)

Pollster End Date Obama Romney Rasmussen Reports 10/30/2012 47 49 Rasmussen Tracking 10/29/2012 47 49 ABC News/Wash Post 10/29/2012 48 49 Rasmussen Tracking 10/28/2012 47 49 CBS News/NY Times 10/28/2012 48 47 Pew Research 10/28/2012 47 47 Gallup Tracking 10/28/2012 46 51

How is there past record in comparison to gallop?

[hellodolly]

From what I've been told by some rednecks here in Issan the only impartial news service is Fox news. Unsure if this is 100% true however.

From what I've been told by some rednecks here in Issan the only impartial news service is Fox news. Unsure if this is 100% true however.

I hope that you are joking Angsta or being ironic. Saying that Fox News is a source of truth is like saying Pravda always told the truth or Hitler always told the truth. Fox News is one of the biggest bunch of liars on the entire planet and that's saying something as there are a whole bunch of liars around. Fox News are masters of the art of the Big Lie, tell it big and tell it often and there will always be some poor saps around who actually believe them. The fact that Fox News at present has the highest number of viewers of any US news channel just shows how many gullible people there are in the USA. Plenty of decent honourable Americans around but you won't find any of them regularly watching Fox News!

The gullible people are the ones that still belive anything that they are told by the so-called "mainstream" media. Let alone the stupid saps that think that BBC possesses a shred of integrity.

Fox News is nowhere near as deceitful and dishonest as the big so-called “mainstream” media outlets. Left-wing news outfits like New York Times, Washington Post, CBS, NBC, and ABC have had long runs with consistent left-wing slanting of their “reporting” and gone on to outright fabrication. In recent years they have become even more blatant with their biased “news” coverage.

A veteran news reporter, correspondent, and producer, Bernie Goldberg, worked for 28 years for CBS and has won 12 Emmy awards for excellence in journalism. In 1996 he wrote a column for the Wall Street Journal titled “The Networks Need a Reality Check” that exposed the left-wing bias in the major news outlets. Of course he became an instant pariah at CBS, a major enemy of network anchor Dan Rather, and was eventually forced out.

His being forced out of CBS actually benefited our society. It allowed him to write his 2001 book "Bias: A Veteran CBS Reporter's Account of How the Media Distorts the News". In Bias, he documents in detail the pervasive left-wing bias throughout the so-called “mainstream” media outlets. If you really want to see the inside workings of the major U.S. media outlets, you need to read this book. Excellent and informative reading!

Interesting you make all you accusations based on pre Bush years.

I will occasionally tune into Fox for entertainment value. For news value. I just scan the headlines get a much fairer balance than Fox. Fox news is for followers who have a hard time with reasoning things out for them selves. Fox takes the result they want you to believe and then looks for facts to back it up. Of course they have to take them out of context. They will never show the positive side of a decision or action they don't like.

[bedouin1990]

Polls are polls. Others show Romney the winner. I do not know how the election will turn out there. Regardless of who achieves power, and the circumstances (which Party controls the House and Senate) no quick change is likely to occur. The US, once the giant of the world economy, is in trouble, and so is the rest. America has been grid-locked for several decades now, and shows no promise of changing soon. I watch Thai politics and see that they are not better in my homeland. Until and unless the welfare of the citizens is placed above contentious partisan squabbling, the skies remain grey.

[samran]

Even if Obama wins it will be the shortest presidency in history when everything behind the Benghazi attack is revealed

sure - the teabagger tinfoil hatter loonies are going to be in meltdown trying to prove that one.

speaking of hate, you words are dripping hate with no mention of Benghazi, just hateful name calling. Sort of what you see on DailyKos-pure hate and name calling. Fox vs DailyKos or HuffPo or MSNBC or CNN, I take Fox any day.

Hatters as in mad-hatters. Not hate. If anything, my words were dripping in ridicule.

[osiboy]

If Europeans could vote in the US election Obama would win by over 90%

Not only does a YouGov poll say that most Europeans would vote for Barack Obama if they voted in the US presidential elections, the odds of the incumbent president retaining his post have also shortened from 2/5 to 1/3 said William Hill this morning.

http://www.economicv...6#ixzz2AwEVZapk

have to agree, i think that romney fella is a creepy, false guy and looks like hes wearing make-up,.... obama seems a genuine guy, regardless of the politics.

[Ulysses G.]

Fox takes the result they want you to believe and then looks for facts to back it up. Of course they have to take them out of context. They will never show the positive side of a decision or action they don't like.

Sounds pretty much like most of the media these days. Fox does not have the patent on media bias.

[notmyself]

Mitt Romney : "8 Million Americans still have no power."

Obama: "8 Million and one."

[Jingthing]

Polls are polls. Others show Romney the winner. I do not know how the election will turn out there. Regardless of who achieves power, and the circumstances (which Party controls the House and Senate) no quick change is likely to occur. The US, once the giant of the world economy, is in trouble, and so is the rest. America has been grid-locked for several decades now, and shows no promise of changing soon. I watch Thai politics and see that they are not better in my homeland. Until and unless the welfare of the citizens is placed above contentious partisan squabbling, the skies remain grey.

The only polls that matter are the electoral college projection polls.

Rasmussen today, which everyone admits has a right wing bias, so this is as bad as it gets for Obama.

Electoral College 270 needed to win

Obama 237

Romney 206

Tossup 95

Factoring in their right wing bias and that Obama only needs 33 of the 95 so called tossups (most polls show Ohio as Obama, not a tossup as they do, so really subtract 18 from 33) I'd say the odds remain very high indeed for an Obama win.

http://www.rasmussen...lege_scoreboard

Edited November 1, 2012 by Jingthing

[Scott]

The discussion of the media is off-topic.

[Ulysses G.]

I'd say the odds remain very high indeed for an Obama win.

Most of the serious players say that there is absolutely no way to tell who will win. Wishful thinking does not change the polls.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds Obama holding a statistically insignificant two-point edge among registered voters: 47% to 45%. This is little different from the 46% to 46% standoff among registered voters observed in early October, in the days following the first debate.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches. In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters. In September, the gap was more modest.

[Baloo22]

If Europeans could vote in the US election Obama would win by over 90%

Not only does a YouGov poll say that most Europeans would vote for Barack Obama if they voted in the US presidential elections, the odds of the incumbent president retaining his post have also shortened from 2/5 to 1/3 said William Hill this morning.

http://www.economicv...6#ixzz2AwEVZapk

Considering Europe's history of leader selection, that's a impressive recommendation for Americans to vote for Mitt Romney!

[Jingthing]

The famous Silver pollster dude rates Obama's win odds at 75 percent. The betting sites about 10 percent under that. Yes, it is POSSIBLE for Romney to win, but not probable. The popular vote polls simply do not matter. Romney has massive leads in the south. That gives him NO extra electoral votes, winning a state by one percent or 30 percent, the SAME electoral prize.

Given the storm situation in New York, Obama will still win New York of course, but probably a lower turnout, so that does increase the chance of a Romney popular vote win mixed with an Obama electoral win

Edited November 1, 2012 by Jingthing

[folium]

Here's a thought....in a merciful few days the US election will be done and dusted.

What chance is there that the opposing parties, boosters and cheerleaders will say: "election is done, now let's focus on the real, material issues that will impact the long term future of this country and it's 300 million+ inhabitants"........

[Jingthing]

Here's a thought....in a merciful few days the US election will be done and dusted.

What chance is there that the opposing parties, boosters and cheerleaders will say: "election is done, now let's focus on the real, material issues that will impact the long term future of this country and it's 300 million+ inhabitants"........

Zero chance.

[Ulysses G.]

Polls are polls. Others show Romney the winner. I do not know how the election will turn out there. Regardless of who achieves power, and the circumstances (which Party controls the House and Senate) no quick change is likely to occur. The US, once the giant of the world economy, is in trouble, and so is the rest. America has been grid-locked for several decades now, and shows no promise of changing soon. I watch Thai politics and see that they are not better in my homeland. Until and unless the welfare of the citizens is placed above contentious partisan squabbling, the skies remain grey.

The only polls that matter are the electoral college projection polls.

Rasmussen today, which everyone admits has a right wing bias, so this is as bad as it gets for Obama.

The Real Clear Politic average only shows a ten point difference on the electoral map and Rasmussen is very reputable polling company whose so-called "bias" does not enter into their polls.

201 Obama Toss Ups 146 Romney 191

Edited November 1, 2012 by Ulysses G.

[Xangsamhua]

In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters.

I didn't know that. Why do more Republicans vote than Democrats?

In Australia we have compulsory voting, so there's no difference really between the major parties' turnouts.

Edited November 1, 2012 by Xangsamhua

[Jingthing]

I am sympathetic. If I was on the losing side, I would be grasping at straws too. It will be alright. Obama is not a communist. Really.