Bangkok: Oceans Rise, North Rains Flood And Bangkok Sinks

[bangkokburning]

Been doing some reading back to 2011 floods. Aside from everything else, Bangkok is seriously sinking. Govt has even.commented on moving the capital. Scientists state that the city could have very, very serious eater issues in as littleas twenty years but by 2050 BKK will be looking a different sort of lifestyle.

Technology can't save it, too costly and far too much corruption. In fact, they cant even manage the flood waters let alone come to collective solution.

So what does the future portend and what will property be worth in 20yrs?

Will Bangkok just become a sad little place like Philippine cities?

[rakman]

First you have to survive past 21 Dec 2012. Then you can worry about the rain and sinking Bangkok. At least the oceans have receded some, not that they really rose.

[lilredbite]

@bangkokburning Any reputable source? Links?

[Zooheekock]

There was a World Bank report on this last year (some details at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/sep/06/bangkok-thailand-risks-steadily-sinking). Bangkok is well-known to be sinking, climate change means that sea-levels are rising and much of the area is essentially at sea level already so it's not exactly a great combination - unless a miracle happens, Bangkok's long-term future is non-existent. I don't know enough about the details to know when these problems will really manifest themselves but it's a pretty good certainty that it's going to happen.

[User3]

Actually, Bangkok as defined by the downtown area was actually rising for quite some time. It was the eastern side of the city where the water was being removed for the industrial sites that was sinking. Still is.

See attached file for relevant information.

However, the major earthquake a few years ago has changed the entire subsidence profile of the region. Plate movements have changed a lot and some of this data on the attached study is a bit out of date. There was another study done a few years ago with updated information. If I can find it I'll post it.

gound_subsidence_bangkok.PDF

[User3]

This seems to be one of the articles I was thinking of. Sorry about the font, it arrived to me in teeny tiny font. Hopefully this is readable.

PRESS RELEASE:

SINKING BANGKOK: JOINT THAILAND-EUROPE RESEARCH REVEALS FAST SEA LEVEL RISE AND LAND DOWNFALL IN THAILAND.

Bagnkok: July 14, 2010: Mean sea level in the Gulf of Thailand is rising significantly faster than global average and the tectonic plate in this region has been found to be moving downward even faster since the happening of Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake in 2004. Using satellite microwave data and in-situ measurements, the collaborative Thailand-Europe GEO2TECDI project determines sea level rise rates in the Gulf of Thailand, plate motion velocity at various locations in Thailand and surface subsidence around Bangkok. After 18 months of intensive investigation a group of Thai and European researchers led by academics of Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University and Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, reveals the alarming findings that could change all currently- adopted future scenarios of singking Bangkok

Sea level change is a primary indicator of climate change. While a globally-averaged rising of around 2mm/yr has been accepted by scientific community, it has long been a subject of debate whether actual mean sea level in the Gulf of Thailand is rising or falling as reported by some studies. This latest research employs satellite radar altimetry observations, GPS measurements and rigorous statistical processing to remove non-climatic signal from tide gauge data. The sea level change study group declares the issue is now resolved. Long-term rising rates since 1940 at around 3 and 4 mm/yr are clearly detected along the west and the north coast of the Gulf respectively. throughout the Gulf of Thailand, fast rising rates are also detected by satellite altimetry (1993-2008) with no evidence of sea level fall.

The plate downfall is revealed by extremely precise GPS measurements that have been conducted at certain locations in Thailand for more than a decade. GPS data depict slow and steady uplift before the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake, after which the plate has been moving down at a rate currently estimated around 10 mm/yr. The seismic-induced phenomenon has been unaware and never been factored in any impact assessments so far. Neglecting the downfall would lead to significant underestimation of coastal impact from the apparent sea level rise, a total magnitude that is observable as the combined effect of actual rising of the sea and the downward motion of the land.

1

Another GEO2TECDI research team uses a special kind of satellite radar-image, known as Synthetic Aperture Radar or SAR, to evaluate the subsidence of top soil and sediment layer around Bangkok. Bangkok subsidence rates are well-known from multi-decadal ground surveying but data are available at only limited monitoring stations. When a subsidence rate is required at a particular location, only an approximation, not the actual value, could be obtained by the interpolating survey data from those monitoring points. The land subsidence study team uses Persisten Scatterer Interferometric SAR or PSInSAR, a highly-sophisticated technique to process a collection of 19 Radarsat-1 images spanning late-2005 to early-2010 period SAR images. The resulted points, at least a thousand times denser than those available from traditional ground survey, provides unprecedent detail of Bangkok subsidence pattern. East side of the Chao Phraya river mouth, north-east Bangkok and southern Pathumthani are found to be subsiding fast at rates greater than 15 mm/yr. Elsewhere in Bangkok the subsiding rates are 10 mm/yr or less.

The impact of sea level rise in the Gulf of Thailand is being amplified by land subsidence and plate downfall, making Bangkok and surrounding provinces extremely vulnerable to floods, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion and environmental degradation. As a foundation step before adaptation/mitigation strategies can be devised, all these dynamic processes require continuity of precise monitoring through which reliable projected magnitudes are available to coastal planners and policy makers. Further Thailand-Europe collaboration has been agreed on the application of space-geodetic techniques for this important task.

About GEO2TECDI: GEO2TECDI (Geodetic Earth Observation Technologies for Thailand: Environmental Change Detection and Investigation) is a collaborative project under Thailand-EC Cooperation Facility program (TEC) program funded by the EU Delegation to Thailand. The research teams are academics and technical staff of Chulalongkorn University, Delft University of Technology, ENS, Darmstadt University of Technology, Royal Thai Survey Department, Royal Naval Academy, Hydrographic Department, and GeoInformatic and Space Technolody Development Agency (GISTDA).

####

2

Vongvisessomjai, S. Will sea-level really fall in the Gulf of Thailand? Songklanakarin J. Sci. Technol., 2006, 28(2) : 227-248

Rate of sea-level changes due to climate changes vary according to latitudes: namely (i) in high and middle latitudes, successive glacial, interglacial and interstadial conditions occur with significant sea-level rises, and (ii) in low latitudes, successive humid and arid conditions occur with small sea-level rises or falls. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) projection of future sea-level rise in the high and middle latitudes of 31, 66 and 110 centimeters in 100 years for low, middle and high scenarios respectively is wrongly accepted to be applicable to the Gulf of Thailand, which is in the low latitudes, where air and seawater temperatures are already high, and therefore, an insignificant increase of temperatures is found in several large cities. Analyses of 56 years data of tides recorded at Ko Lak, Prachuap Khirikhan province and Sattahip, Chonburi province revealed that sea levels are falling slowly, which is consistent with results of Gregory (1993) who reported sea-level falls in the low latitudes and the Gulf of Thailand of 0-50 milimeters, using U.K. Meteorological Offices Coupled Ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model. In conclusion, the sea-level in the Gulf of Thailand is found preliminarily to be falling slightly or not changing, contradicting the belief that sea-level is rising in the Gulf of Thailand at the same rate as that in the high and middle latitudes. This should be investigated in more detail in the near future.

Key words : greenhouse, ocean-atmosphere, sea-level fall

1D.Eng. (Coastal Engineering), Prof., Water and Environment Expert, TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management Co. Ltd., 151 TEAM Building, Nuan Chan Road, Klong Kum, Bueng Kum, Bangkok 10230 Thailand. Corresponding e-mail: [email protected]

Received, 5 October 2005 Accepted, 31 January 2006

[Zooheekock]

^ Thanks again.

[falkan]

where will the new capital be ?

[bangkokburning]

New capital...well, wherever the Sino-Thai currently own all the land of course.

Interesting though on two counts:

What will a confluence of these events look like? Bangkok in 25yrs? Who will buy your sinking condo?

What happens when a tiny group of people need to unload a lot of very, very expensive land quickly. Land that is now eternally flood prone or already underwater during stress periods.

[trogers]

Ahh...! A floating city, much more attractive than a floating market...land values will soar for sure.

[Rowdy100]

The sky is also falling... beware the exploding moon...http://ibnlive.in.com/news/in-cold-war-us-planned-to-blow-up-the-moon-report/307941-2.html

I mean.. really, what is it with all these "world is going to end" stories...??

Seriously, Bangkok will continue to be the capital of Thailand long after any people on this forum are able to write anymore.. yes, there will be floods....and who knows what other natural disasters are coming our way..., yes we're sinking at a rate so minute that it makes a snails pace look like Usain Bolt...x 1,000,000.

To all the doomsayers... get over it.. Bangkok is a great citty...and will continue to be so for a very very long time to come... FACT..

Anyone ever noticed that all these "studies"... are carried out by so called educated people who require governemnet assited handouts to exist and to fund their opinion based findings... so naturally, something "big" discovered requires more funding to look into things further...so it's beneficial to create some more alarm... and the whole thing becomes self-perpetuating.... end result.. another study..more funding... Equals self created survival on government hand-outs..

In my world... that's called self-created welfare for the so-called brainiacs... just sayin'....

IMO..

[Payboy]

Sounds like a jet ski business opportunity.

[BlackPuddingBertha]

I remember people talking about Bangkok sinking 30+ years ago and I've always been surprised that anyone would buy any sort of property in an area that is floodable, or potentially so. I certainly wouldn't. Even in Pattaya one of the first things I ask myself about buildings here is "where does the water go when it rains?".

[TPI]

Well, if BKK is sinking then at least the streets and gutters will be cleaned on a regular basis. Can you imagine what a blast Soncran will be...people throwing sand and soil at each other??

[Zooheekock]

Anyone ever noticed that all these "studies"... are carried out by so called educated people

Really? Academics studying scientific subjects? Good heavens! Whatever next? And to think that could get some straight-talking wisdom about 'getting over it' for free. What an outrageous waste of money, eh.

[bbradsby]

Keep in mind we're talking a very slow process, evolving over a period of centuries. So the ever resourceful Bangkokians, will adapt, come what may, with what they have available to them at that time.

The City will be 're-fitted' pretty much continuously over time, with ever-better technology. Government follows, rather than leads, just like everywhere else. Think of a Future Venice, say around 2100. Hard work by property owners and continuously evolving technologies will make it happen: Ever-cleaner transit, even the mere need for transit; air, water quality management technologies, recycled/recyclable structural-grade polymers impervious to water...

Humans, as a species, solve immediate problems - thats What We Do - but, the result of success is overpopulation. Now that's the real problem.

[bbradsby]

[snip] all these "studies"... are carried out by so called educated people who require governemnet assited handouts to exist and to fund their opinion based findings... so naturally, something "big" discovered requires more funding to look into things further...so it's beneficial to create some more alarm... and the whole thing becomes self-perpetuating.... end result.. another study..more funding... Equals self created survival on government hand-outs..

In my world... that's called self-created welfare for the so-called brainiacs...

It was government-funded R&D that developed the Knowledge - not opinions - that then created the technology, that was then transferred over to Silicon Valley, that uncorked the Genie into viable businesses, creating mucho cash and the 9th/10th largest economy in the world [that's brainiac California, BTW] ...that created the computer and the internet you used to post your anti-intellectual opinion. The same Knowledge Economy funds the welfare of all Luddites, wherever they reside.

Without government-funded R&D and it's Knowledge-based Economy, we'd be quickly pushed back to the Dark Age by enterprising people in countries that can always make things cheaper than the Developed World.

Edited December 2, 2012 by bbradsby

[isawasnake]

I don't but the "20 years" stuff. Give it 200 and then maybe there would be a difference. It would actually be interesting to see if it happened that quick. I mean, I'm not wishing harm on anybody, but some area would be essentially beachfront, with ghost town buildings sticking out of the water. Has the world even ever seen anything like that happen on a time scale like 20 years?

[Rowdy100]

bbradsby

Of course I'm grateful for my compu-der...without it I woodent be able to spell choppily...

And hey I'm not anti-inter-lec-chewal... Simply anti all the doomsayers that scaremonger the normally rational rank-and-file people into thinking that the sky is falling and the world is sinking. As you said in your first post... humans will work it out...we'll be OK...and so will Bangkok.

.

So here's cheers to all you smarter than average bears out there... it is you I am hoping will save my property from sinking into the soup hole.. or perhaps bbradsby you can design me a new one...??? On stilts or in a water-proof bubble of course. .

Rowdy

P.S. I still don't believe that Bangkok will sink significantly enough in our lifetime... but hey, this is just a humble thought based on nothing other than common sense...

[kaorop]

bkk was once known as the venice of the east

got an old travel mag from 1932 showing pics of bkk

way more klongs than roads

it will return.

[kaorop]

bbradsby

Of course I'm grateful for my compu-der...without it I woodent be able to spell choppily...

And hey I'm not anti-inter-lec-chewal... Simply anti all the doomsayers that scaremonger the normally rational rank-and-file people into thinking that the sky is falling and the world is sinking. As you said in your first post... humans will work it out...we'll be OK...and so will Bangkok.

.

So here's cheers to all you smarter than average bears out there... it is you I am hoping will save my property from sinking into the soup hole.. or perhaps bbradsby you can design me a new one...??? On stilts or in a water-proof bubble of course. .

Rowdy

P.S. I still don't believe that Bangkok will sink significantly enough in our lifetime... but hey, this is just a humble thought based on nothing other than common sense...

yes please only think about your lifetime. cause thats common sense........to you

the attack on climate change is insane, its happening whether you and i helped or not, which imo we have,

as if most of the scientists have formed a pack to deceive us.........

red helicopters and tin foil hats please.

[humblefalang]

remember a chat with the missus about this

her Reply

where will the new capital be ?

i remember talking to the missus about this

her reply

"they cannot move it, but what bangkok is today they will do the same in khon kaen"

Her words hillarious

shes actually more intelligent that that, her english gets on the way.

[bangkokburning]

Sort of funny, the doubters have zero evidence to refute the science, but the science is crazy and will never happen.

What I see in 25+ years is a very large possibility of annual.flooding, a govt who has not come to any conclusion how to deal with it and a massive amount of pissed off people who must suffer the losses annually as well as deflated real estate.

My wife to me that her parents second home in Patumthani which was totally flooded out will never fetch the same money. Unless something changes (technology, barriers, etc...) I think people in flood prone areas are destined to be screwed - and that does imo mean parts of central bkk as well.

[Humbugged]

Bangkok could be turned into venice....all those tal buildings surrounded by canals, tuk tuk gondolas abd such...it would be a magical place....just let nature take its course.

Of courrse they will have to do something about the electric....but they lucky they have the smarts with their forward thinking and never put it underground....it should stay just above water height.....and buy lots of defribulators just in case.