The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[bert bloggs]

I really do not know what will happen to the Baht ,what i do know is two friends who come here for months on end ,every year will not be coming this year ,to expensive . they usually spend a few grand each while here .

[Toscano]

When I first came to live in Thailand the exchange rate was Bt70 to the £1 sterling , now it has dropped to about Bt38 , which is a pitiful amount as compared to before . To have a higher valued Baht looks good , but is it good for the economy . Thailand used to be popular for cheap exotic holidays in the sun , but today there are other places more appealing for the money .  

[trd]

Correct but. how will Thailand hold its head above the water, it only the amount of tourist coming here there keeping it afloat thus maintaining the strength of the Baht and the weakness of western currencies. 

You must be joking. Tourism only accounts for 10% of the economy.

[mvsaraburi]

On 7/2/2019 at 9:09 AM, Toscano said:

When I first came to live in Thailand the exchange rate was Bt70 to the £1 sterling , now it has dropped to about Bt38 , which is a pitiful amount as compared to before . To have a higher valued Baht looks good , but is it good for the economy . Thailand used to be popular for cheap exotic holidays in the sun , but today there are other places more appealing for the money .  

 

To be fair it's still cheap compared to UK. 

 

Currently back in Leeds UK contracting and it's shocking how expensive it is. 

300 baht for basic thai meal (pad krapow gai etc) that would be 30 baht in Saraburi.

2-3K baht for massage.  again 300 baht back home.

Thai ingredients from the 'nong fern' market in Leeds: extortionate.

(mentioning 'thai things' because my missus when over here buys them)

 

but big spends too:

property 15-20MB for something you could get built for 2MB in Saraburi.

then add in all the council tax, VAT, petrol, road tax etc etc.

[oxysong]

Thailand's currency is manipulated,could feel sorry for them,everybody broke,far too strong,it will not stay this way for long. exports devastated,a collapse will happen,already B of T cutting back on bonds,it was those that created strong baht,nothing else

[fletchsmile]

On 2/21/2013 at 8:51 PM, fletchsmile said:

1) Pay yourself first.

2) Invest regularly in THB assets with the money from 1)

3) Continue (or for some people start) spending less money than you have coming in, each and every year.

Oh good a re-opened thread from 6 years ago. Will just quote myself and move on again 

 

Though it's tempting to move back to a cheap 3rd world country like the UK and bank the currency gains 

[rumak]

On 6/4/2019 at 8:41 AM, jayceenik said:

Euro savings in SIN when I die and we live with a Euro pension I get from Belgium so she is checking daily the Exchange rates on the Internet.

Always good to plan ahead......

[rumak]

2 hours ago, mvsaraburi said:

 

To be fair it's still cheap compared to UK. 

 

Currently back in Leeds UK contracting and it's shocking how expensive it is. 

300 baht for basic thai meal (pad krapow gai etc) that would be 30 baht in Saraburi.

2-3K baht for massage.  again 300 baht back home.

Thai ingredients from the 'nong fern' market in Leeds: extortionate.

(mentioning 'thai things' because my missus when over here buys them)

 

but big spends too:

property 15-20MB for something you could get built for 2MB in Saraburi.

then add in all the council tax, VAT, petrol, road tax etc etc.

So why is it that farangs sell their 15 million baht home,  come to Thailand and build a 2 MB home, then complain about the price of cheese at Makro  or a 20 baht songtaew ride ?  

[marcusarelus]

56 minutes ago, oxysong said:

Thailand's currency is manipulated,could feel sorry for them,everybody broke,far too strong,it will not stay this way for long. exports devastated,a collapse will happen,already B of T cutting back on bonds,it was those that created strong baht,nothing else

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-THB

 

Check the past 20 years above.  ????

 

1.  It they could manipulate the baht they would have brought it down long ago.  Sorry it's the nutters in the UK that are bringing the pound down nothing to do with Thailand.  

Edited July 3, 2019 by marcusarelus

[Thomas J]

I am old enough to remember all of the dire predictions about the future including the link to the one on the population bomb that was going to destroy the entire world.  Currencies fluctuate and at the present time there is a Weak Dollar, Weak Euro. Wait a few years and perhaps you will see predictions of horror of being over run with Farangs from Europe and the America's due to the Baht being so cheap compared to their currencies and overcrowding the local Thai's

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/01/us/the-unrealized-horrors-of-population-explosion.html

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by Thomas J

[CharlieH]

Reported personal attack removed.

[oxysong]

12 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-THB

 

Check the past 20 years above.  ????

 

1.  It they could manipulate the baht they would have brought it down long ago.  Sorry it's the nutters in the UK that are bringing the pound down nothing to do with Thailand.  

Nothing to do with "nutters" nor your continued observation of Wiki inspired comments.  The baht is manipulated,not downwards but upwards. You need further educating by reading and mainly the English language Thai newspapers.

   you keep suggesting the GBP against the Baht,but how do your sensibilities measure up to other currencies?  or is that a step far too far? ,historical events concering currency are nonsensical when junta intervention takes hold,one moment there,next moment not there

[bkk6060]

14 hours ago, rumak said:

So why is it that farangs sell their 15 million baht home,  come to Thailand and build a 2 MB home, then complain about the price of cheese at Makro  or a 20 baht songtaew ride ?  

Some are born with the negative, complaining hate Gene.  Then they move to Thailand...

[RickG16]

38.55 to 1GBP... it just keeps on plummeting. How long until we hit 35 / 30?

 

All I can say is I just hope the Tory leadership election result can restore some confidence in the GBP. It will after all be some mark of progress. Result due on 22nd July. 

[elliss]

On 2/21/2013 at 3:55 PM, Scottythai said:

I think it would be hard to gauge but a very interesting topic. I would think then the wages of the average factory worker will have to be raised with it as with e stronger market there is always a start for a middle class rising

 

        Thailand has a growth economy based on , keeping the average factory wages down.

         Western wages , are far too high to compete in the global market . Sad but true .

 

 

[elliss]

On 7/3/2019 at 7:04 PM, rumak said:

So why is it that farangs sell their 15 million baht home,  come to Thailand and build a 2 MB home, then complain about the price of cheese at Makro  or a 20 baht songtaew ride ?  

 

   Tesco cheese , on special  yellow sticker today after 8,  better more.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2019 by elliss

[elliss]

On 2/5/2014 at 12:10 PM, pokerface1 said:

Normally countries with a government under threat of being over thrown would have a currency landslide but it has not happened here in Thailand. However the market would have already priced this into the exchange rate over the last few years. It's holding it's own now, just watch what happens once the political arena starts to calm down to a more stable future. Best thing to do is buy heaps of Thai Baht now and hold for the longer term. If your not well heeled and on a fixed income from home then start packing as the shit hasn't hit the fan quite yet.

 

     Good post .

   However , this Thai Goverment is under threat  from who . ?

 

 

[503726]

8 hours ago, RickG16 said:

38.55 to 1GBP... it just keeps on plummeting. How long until we hit 35 / 30?

 

All I can say is I just hope the Tory leadership election result can restore some confidence in the GBP. It will after all be some mark of progress. Result due on 22nd July. 

 

Rick, my guess is that the recent 5% drop (measured at my bank from 39.5 to 37.5) happened when the market took note of Johnson's chance of becoming leader and a further fall may follow as the prospect of a non deal Brexit rises. I'll hazard an answer to your question, its gloomy : 

 

35 in the summer recess as Boris takes control, and perhaps

30 by end of September when Parliament is back in turmoil until terms are agreed or not,

then sanity, or the effect of the balance of trade in its new guise, will bring the rate back over the next year  

 

Perhaps more knowledgeable people can comment. 

 

Just seen this, even gloomier, sorry, it looks like 32 Bhat to GBP by Dec 2022.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2019 by 503726
Saw relevant article

[Voodooles]

I disagree that the Baht will continue strengthening.

 

You may not be aware, but 3 of Thailand’s largest companies are going public this summer: (1) the retail arm of state-owned oil company PTT Pcl, (2) the hospitality business owned by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, and (3) a unit of Central Group. These entities are all controlled by immensely powerful people in Thailand. Since a large portion of the IPO allocation will be to international investors, there may be some pressure to maintain a strong Baht in order to “gild the lily” for these wealthy parties.

 

Yes, I am alleging that the manipulation of the Baht is intentional by the government in order to help these powerful entities.

 

Once these IPOs are completed, I suspect the Baht will start coming down.

 

Once we see a recession in the world, the Baht will drop quite hard: too much dependence on economically-sensitive tourist arrivals, too many real estate projects nearing completion that are unsold, and a general lack of industrial competitiveness as compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, which are comparable economies.

 

Cheer up, it will get better.

 

Edited July 7, 2019 by Voodooles

[SpokaneAl]

I disagree that the Baht will continue strengthening.
 
You may not be aware, but 3 of Thailand’s largest companies are going public this summer: (1) the retail arm of state-owned oil company PTT Pcl, (2) the hospitality business owned by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, and (3) a unit of Central Group. These entities are all controlled by immensely powerful people in Thailand. Since a large portion of the IPO allocation will be to international investors, there may be some pressure to maintain a strong Baht in order to “gild the lily” for these wealthy parties.
 
Yes, I am alleging that the manipulation of the Baht is intentional by the government in order to help these powerful entities.
 
Once these IPOs are completed, I suspect the Baht will start coming down.
 
Once we see a recession in the world, the Baht will drop quite hard: too much dependence on economically-sensitive tourist arrivals, too many real estate projects nearing completion that are unsold, and a general lack of industrial competitiveness as compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, which are comparable economies.
 
Cheer up, it will get better.
 

Forecasting the future for anything is a fool’s game. The best we can do is to admit there is a probability of a number of scenarios and adjust our portfolios/lifestyle/spending habits to take these scenarios into account. And we may not get it totally right, but will probably not be completely, and potentially severely financially injured by being utterly wrong.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[JimmyTheMook]

28 minutes ago, SpokaneAl said:

 

Forecasting the future for anything is a fool’s game. The best we can do is to admit there is a probability of a number of scenarios and adjust our portfolios/lifestyle/spending habits to take these scenarios into account. And we may not get it totally right, but will probably not be completely, and potentially severely financially injured by being utterly wrong.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

 

And in other financial news; it may or may not rain tomorrow.

 

 

[Naam]

5 hours ago, Voodooles said:

You may not be aware, but 3 of Thailand’s largest companies are going public this summer: (1) the retail arm of state-owned oil company PTT Pcl, (2) the hospitality business owned by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, and (3) a unit of Central Group. These entities are all controlled by immensely powerful people in Thailand. Since a large portion of the IPO allocation will be to international investors, there may be some pressure to maintain a strong Baht in order to “gild the lily” for these wealthy parties.

 

Yes, I am alleging that the manipulation of the Baht is intentional by the government in order to help these powerful entities. Once these IPOs are completed, I suspect the Baht will start coming down.

 

added as reason #237 in my collection of "why the Baht will fall any time from now". 

[marcusarelus]

5 hours ago, Voodooles said:

I disagree that the Baht will continue strengthening.

 

You may not be aware, but 3 of Thailand’s largest companies are going public this summer: (1) the retail arm of state-owned oil company PTT Pcl, (2) the hospitality business owned by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, and (3) a unit of Central Group. These entities are all controlled by immensely powerful people in Thailand. Since a large portion of the IPO allocation will be to international investors, there may be some pressure to maintain a strong Baht in order to “gild the lily” for these wealthy parties.

 

Yes, I am alleging that the manipulation of the Baht is intentional by the government in order to help these powerful entities.

 

Once these IPOs are completed, I suspect the Baht will start coming down.

 

Once we see a recession in the world, the Baht will drop quite hard: too much dependence on economically-sensitive tourist arrivals, too many real estate projects nearing completion that are unsold, and a general lack of industrial competitiveness as compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, which are comparable economies.

 

Cheer up, it will get better.

 

You think Vietnam is a comparable economy to Thailand?  I'll keep it simple - GDP Thailand is twice as big.  Thailand is a multifaceted economy with a good mix of industry, agriculture and tourism.  Chinese are taking money out of China by the ton and investing it in Thai real estate.  I transferred my money into Thailand in 2005 and it has done well since then. 

 

Thailand does not have enough money to manipulate if they did they would have stopped the financial crisis in 97.  If I was selling something in Thailand to an international audience I'd want the baht down not up.  I think you are mixing up down and up.   

[marcusarelus]

On 7/4/2019 at 8:02 AM, oxysong said:

Nothing to do with "nutters" nor your continued observation of Wiki inspired comments.  The baht is manipulated,not downwards but upwards. You need further educating by reading and mainly the English language Thai newspapers.

   you keep suggesting the GBP against the Baht,but how do your sensibilities measure up to other currencies?  or is that a step far too far? ,historical events concering currency are nonsensical when junta intervention takes hold,one moment there,next moment not there

Thailand does not have enough money to manipulate currency if they did they would have done so in 97.  The dollar and pound are going down not the baht going up.  Baht now looks like a safe haven against further erosion or the Western currencies.  

[Voodooles]

9 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

You think Vietnam is a comparable economy to Thailand?  I'll keep it simple - GDP Thailand is twice as big.  Thailand is a multifaceted economy with a good mix of industry, agriculture and tourism.  Chinese are taking money out of China by the ton and investing it in Thai real estate.  I transferred my money into Thailand in 2005 and it has done well since then. 

 

Thailand does not have enough money to manipulate if they did they would have stopped the financial crisis in 97.  If I was selling something in Thailand to an international audience I'd want the baht down not up.  I think you are mixing up down and up.   

Thanks for such an impassioned and personal reply.

And congratulations on getting into Thailand at an opportunistic moment. You should be happy.

Please take a look at the graphs I’ve posted, they are fairly self explanatory.

China is unlikely to continue its current path.

Global real estate is set to fall. The entire QE executed by central banks was specifically designed to inflate prices artificially to save the banking system. The US Federal Reserve is no longer buying mortgage debt securities. Tertiary markets (like Thailand) were of course the late-stage beneficiary, which is why there are still so many cranes and so much domestic construction employment.

Vietnam is doing very exciting stuff. They’ll have some stumbles, but overall their trajectory has a very high slope, much higher (and more interesting) than Thailand’s.

Thailand can absolutely manipulate its currency over relatively short periods of time.

Finally, keep an eye on the bellwethers: mighty China’s GDP growth is slowing, the South Korean currency has been dropping, Singapore continuously bemoans slowdown, Australia cut rates to historically low levels, etc. etc. Yet the US is continuing to create jobs: it’s fun to hate the US, but King Dollar is likely to show its face again relatively soon, especially after Trump leaves (hopefully this election), and Bahts will certainly drop.  The GBP and EUR will also benefit from this given the strong linkages.

 

[Voodooles]

...I should note: I don't recommend "trading" the Baht. There are easier things to do with one's time and money.  This is more of a cost-of-lifestyle analysis, if you will.

 

The US Fed has to cut rates this month for the Baht to maintain its strength, I believe. Anything short of that, and I suspect the Baht will depreciate quickly.

 

If the Fed does cut rates, I would not be entirely surprised if the Baht does get into the high 20's relatively soon, but by next year it should be much weaker.

 

Keep an eye on when the Baht gets just too, too strong. Also keep an eye on those IPOs.

 

I hope that helps.

[Cranky]

Any moderators out there?  I just wasted a load of time once again reading a string that is over five frickin years old. Time for a clear out ?

[spidermike007]

On 2/21/2013 at 4:49 PM, captron said:

Yes, same for me. 11 yrs have been great but it's over. Not even 30 baht /USD. Really sucks! More than a $ for a cheap beer at the 7 and its only 10oz? Hell, can get 12 oz beer for 50 cents in the STATES. No bargains here anymore.

Not to mention the extremely low quality of the beer here. How many other countries have such inferior beer? Even in the US, which used to be famous for terrible beer, you have thousands of micro breweries, and they are churning out gorgeous beer, for about the same price as you pay here for a Leo. Not so here. If you are lucky, you can find a Beer Lao, which blows away anything the hapless Thai beer industry produces. 

 

Alot of foreigners are leaving. And that is a real shame, as I think many ex-pats bring alot to the table here, and make the country a better place. However, the blind and myopic authorities would never admit that, even if they were aware of it! 

 

It truly does feel as if the nation is moving backwards, and the lack of progress on any level, is simply something to be expected from a hapless and grossly incompetent army. The nation needs to rid itself of these vampires, sooner or later.