Credibility Of Opinion Polls At Stake As Most Tipped Ponsapat: Bangkok

[webfact]

Credibility of opinion polls at stake as most tipped Ponsapat
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The results of exit polls conducted by regular pollsters on yesterday's governor election yesterday were proving to be inaccurate in the early stages of vote counting as incumbent Sukhumbhand Paribatra was still ahead of his closest rival, Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Poncharoen, at press time.

In their previous surveys of Bangkok constituents, the five polls often projected Pongsapat ahead of Democrat Sukhumbhand. The survey results, criticised for supporting rival parties, were being questioned by the media about neutrality and the academic independence of the pollsters, all of whom are universities.

The five pollsters are Abac University's Abac Poll, Suan Dusit Rajabhat Institute's Dusit Poll, Bansomdejchaopraya Rajabhat's Bansomdej Poll, Bangkok University's Bangkok Poll, and the National Institute of Development Administration's Nida Poll. Members of the media, especially television broadcasters, have also conducted their own surveys, either independently or jointly with other educational institutes.

Even on election day yesterday, Abac Poll released "pre-election" results conducted on 5,713 people, 45.9 per cent of whom said they would vote for Pongsapat while 34.1 per cent said they preferred Sukhumbhand.

A few days before election day, Rajabhat Suan Dusit, despite regularly conducting surveys in the countdown to the election, surprisingly announced it would not do an exit poll, citing current political conflicts and possible violation of electoral laws.

During real-time reports before and at press time yesterday, exit polls showed Pongsapat beating the Democrat Party candidate, MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, by between 1.48 per cent and 7.39 per cent.

The poll carried out jointly by the Television Pool of Thailand and The Nation and Bansomdejchaopraya Rajabhat universities showed that 40.02 per cent of the voters surveyed said they had voted for Pongsapat, compared to 38.54 per cent for Sukhumbhand. Bangkok University's exit poll showed Pongsapat winning 44.14 per cent of votes, compared to Sukhumbhand's 41.07 per cent.

The exit poll by Channel 7 showed the widest margin, with 46.23 per cent of votes going to Pongsapat and 38.84 per cent to Sukhumbhand. Two weeks earlier, all five polls put Pongsapat ahead of Sukhumbhand in their frequent surveys, and placed independent runners like Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, Kosit Suwinijit, and Suharit Siamwalla behind them.

There was reportedly an internal opinion survey conducted by the police's Special Branch Division, which favoured Pongsapat over Sukhumbhand, but a police spokesman and Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung denied such a survey took place.


-- The Nation 2013-03-04

[Locationthailand]

Testing 1500 'opinions' and calling that a poll, does not constitute truth for 12M people. Idiots...

[Thai-Aust]

It certainly proved one thing. Money can buy anything and everything. The future is looking awful, this shows that this government is buying their way to the absolute power.

[fareastguy]

Of course it makes a difference who you actually ask during the opinion polls??

Ask 1000 pro's it will indicate they will win

ask 1000 opposition it will indicate they will win

however if you want to try to influence the vote/turnout then as in the case of the media, then it's best to only ask your own kind in safe areas..

[animatic]

The credibility of the pollsters is not at stake...

You can NOT lose what you never had.

Edited March 4, 2013 by metisdead
: Font.

[bigbamboo]

If they want an honest opinion perhaps those working for the pollsters should refrain from wearing red shirts?

[Pib]

I'm sure the pollsters are aware, but are reluctant to admit openly, that most Thai's (a.k.a., the silent majority) really like to keep their political choices close to their chest except maybe when talking to close friends/family. They may openly imply a choice when pressed in a close friend/family discussion, but much less likely to be as open in other cases like a pollster asking survey questions or just talking to their neighbor a few houses down the soi. The great majority are not hard core like the Red, Yellow, etc., Shirt groups that get so much media attention....sure many will lean towards the Red or Yellow Shirts causes but they don't get hard core/radical/unbending about it. Remember, most Thai's don't like to cause conflict...even friendly but heated discussions which can arise when talking politics. I also think many, many Thai's can be easily swayed for their vote in the final days of an election as compared to what we may be use to in western nations.

[PREM-R]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, (for mods "our day will come")

Edited March 4, 2013 by Scott
non English removed.

[WhizBang]

Polls, especially if using a very small sample, can be very heavily influenced by the questions (even the wording) asked. It is not difficult to get the answers you want/need, if you ask the right questions, worded the right way.

Unless the sample is quite large, such polls are meaningless. Even large polls can be meaningless, especially if the questions and their exact wording are not known.

Edited March 4, 2013 by WhizBang

[jamhar]

The credibility of the pollsters is not at stake...

You can NOT lose what you never had.

Aint that the truth!

first 2 thoughts to come to mind

1) whoever was banking on this needs to re-visit statistics 101. These polls and statistics are as only good as your basis, and the smaller the sample, the less reliable the result.

2) pollsters are notorious for narrowing the basis. They have a tendency to tailor the poll to the wishes of those paying for it. Are you going to tell those paying you millions that they just wasted their money and are about to be crushed in the elections?

"You can NOT lose what you never had." sums it up perfectly!

[bigbamboo]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

Does it?

I thought it just showed the people of BKK made their own choice in an open and fair election.

[Pimay1]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

[tragickingdom]

The credibility of any figure is in doubt in Thailand. Polling agencies poll the establishment in ten provinces and extrapolate the outcome to the rest of Thailand. It works the same for BKK elections. You pick out a few districts and your conclusions for all of Bangkok are based on it. Nobody cares, Poor people without access to post paid numbers or the internet are not taken into account for starters. They won't vote but are still taken into account as a possible voter.

Polling agencies never tell how they selected their sample, what the margins of error are and so on. But it is fine in Thailand. In Thailand ministers who lie about export growth do not lose their job, it is considered beneficial to the country, and the late Sanan was able to steal as much as he could from wrong healthscare figures.

The worst is of course that lots of Thai people live a lie. That the poll is off is acceptable. But that people even seem to lie about who they voted after they come out of a boot is far more scary. And in the meantime the puppet masters of the Democrat Party, the Nation is telling the world that their candidate had a record number of votes, while that is true, they forget to mention that the opposition candidate also trashed the number of votes ever received in an election.

[PREM-R]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

[Buchholz]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

.

Still only elusiveness... no names... stealthily obtuse... with only a mysterious and disingenuous referral to google.

...and no explanation of "our"

.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Buchholz

[Bluespunk]

Credibility? What credibility? Polls are useless, the questions are rigged to give the answer those paying for the poll require.

[Buchholz]

.

anyway, back to less mysterious poll agencies.

ABAC Poll, with obvious embarrassment, has said today that they would no longer publicly announce the results of its election polls.

So that's a good start. Only what? 4 or 5 more polling agencies to make similar pledges?

(of course, like Chalerm's 7-day pledge of silence.... seeing is believing).

Have to remember this one come next election time.

.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Buchholz

[lujanit]

The credibility of the pollsters is not at stake...

You can NOT lose what you never had.

Aint that the truth!

first 2 thoughts to come to mind

1) whoever was banking on this needs to re-visit statistics 101. These polls and statistics are as only good as your basis, and the smaller the sample, the less reliable the result.

2) pollsters are notorious for narrowing the basis. They have a tendency to tailor the poll to the wishes of those paying for it. Are you going to tell those paying you millions that they just wasted their money and are about to be crushed in the elections?

"You can NOT lose what you never had." sums it up perfectly!

Lie, damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain or Benjamin Israeli, take your pick but true enough

[DP25]

A lot of people are terrified of the red shirts thugs. They aren't going to give their real answer in an exit poll with red shirt "observers" hovering around the polling area. They'll vote how they want inside and give the safe answer in public.

Additionally, polls have long been suspected to be compromised for political purposes in Thailand. Publish enough polls about the 'landslide' win the PTP candidate will get and maybe his opponents will become discouraged and not go to the polls. Appears to have backfired in this case...

[webfact]

Special report:
Why were pollsters all wrong about Bangkok Governor election result?

BANGKOK: -- The Bangkok Governor election result has been a surprise to pollsters, most of whom predicted that Puea Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen would win.

Poll surveys conducted one week before the election were unanimous. They all suggested that Pongsapat Pongcharoen from Puea Thai was ahead of Democrat candidate Sukhumbhand Paribatra. Polls by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, Assumption University and Bangkok University had Mr Pongsapat ahead by between 7-16 percentage points.

Exit poll results were equally unanimous. They said Mr Pongsapat would win, although by a smaller margin. Suan Dusit, ABAC and Channel 7 predicted that Mr Pongsapat would win by 8-12%, while Ban Somdej, Suan Sunanta and Bangkok University predicted he would win by 1.5-4.5%.

So all the pollsters were wrong. And some were wrong by as much as 22 percentage points. Why was this? Why was there such a gap between the survey results and the actual election result?

There could be several explanations. The first explanation would be that those who voted Mr Sukhumbhand for the reason that he was the "lesser evil", or the "necessary evil", might have been reluctant to answer survey questions frankly, or reluctant to answer survey questions at all. The existence of these voters might have preferred to tell pollsters that they were "undecided", or might have refused to take part in surveys at all.

The second explanation might be that some genuinely undecided voters were moved by the Democrats' negative campaign tactics used in the final week, which threatened voters with the prospect of having the capital "seized by those who set our city on fire". This could explain why the surveys conducted one week before the election were wrong, but cannot explain why the exit polls were wrong, too.

The third explanation is that surveys could not account for "organised votes". Organised votes are votes gained through a network of party activists - most of whom local community leaders, religious leaders, or aides to local politicians - who organise to take large groups of voters to polling stations to vote as a group. Poll surveys typically fail to account for this type of votes. And it is possible that the Democrat party did better than Puea Thai in securing organised votes.

Which one of these factors had the greatest impact must be a subject of more rigorous research. And it is in the interest of both the winning and losing parties to know.


-- NNT 2013-03-04

[hellodolly]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

Yes indeed who are these mysterious forces.

I took one poster to task on this and was told because of the defamation laws the families could not be named. I pointed out that the Shinawarata's name was mentioned often with no repercussions and he replied he had had PMs. Hardly what I would call a legal defamation threat. I should of continued with what post was it but it was obvious he was a know nothing red shirt with out a leader to tell him to tie his shoes.

[Pimay1]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

Yes indeed who are these mysterious forces.

I took one poster to task on this and was told because of the defamation laws the families could not be named. I pointed out that the Shinawarata's name was mentioned often with no repercussions and he replied he had had PMs. Hardly what I would call a legal defamation threat. I should of continued with what post was it but it was obvious he was a know nothing red shirt with out a leader to tell him to tie his shoes.

Yes I saw that exchange. The answer you got was quite childish and in my opinion didn't even dignify a response.

[hellodolly]

I didn't waste my time reading the article.

All any one had to do was follow the polls over the last few years and they would have discovered as I have that Thailand is the hub of what do you want proven we have a poll to prove it.

Mostly from the academia area.

[DP25]

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

As opposed to the party that consists of a criminal billionaire tax dodging aristocrat from a powerful political family, who's MPs primarily consist of millionaires from powerful political dynasties with connections to mega corporations, whose primary policy achievement once in office consist of lowering income tax on corporations and whose primary goals are tax avoidance for the rich and the implementation of corporate backed free trade agreements. They are a party for corporations and the rich whose main policy goals are furthering those groups. The most pressing problem Thailand faces is getting the mega rich like Thaksin to pay their taxes so that the government has funds to use for infrastructure and social programs, PTP is dedicated to the concept that the rich do not have to pay their share. All while harping on and on to the ignorant about the 'amart'

[Arkady]

The quality and integrity of the polls are exactly as they should be. They are managed by academics who are very susceptible to bribery and intimidation and are incompetent anyway, having obtained their positions by cheating and bribery in the first place.

Remember that even wannabe teachers cheat in their exams and that masters and doctoral theses are routinely failed on the grounds that students selfishly wrote them themselves and didn't provide work to poor academics.

What else did you expect?

[Mosha]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

You might want to check up on Thaksin's background. If he's not Amart my old man's a kipper.

[NCFC]

I posted over two weeks ago that I suspected the polls would be innacurate and it's not neccessary to look for any conspiracy theory to find out why.

Firstly, Bangkok is full of residents inelligble to vote because their registration is upcountry. I suspect many of these residents are PTP supporters.

The polling organisations need to filter out these people and the most efficient way is to check the tabien baan lists of the registrars, take a sample, and then go interview those people. But this would be a very expensive and long-winded procedure compared to just going out onto the street and asking people how they intend to vote.

Another factor is the pollsters on the ground actually asking the questions. The polling procedure may well have been properly defined by the universities according to proper statistical methodologies but they will have employed university students to go out and pound the pavements. I know this for sure as my daughter was employed in such a capacity a few years back.

Now I really don't see students requesting residents to prove their qualification for voting. They will simply be concerned to get their quota of forms filled as quickly as possible so that they have time to meet up with their friends in Starbucks or whereever. So I'm pretty sure that the poll results are skewed because a lot of ineligble residents have been included in the polls leading up to election day and the majority of those residents are PTP supporters - making the polls worthless.

[jayboy]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

You might want to check up on Thaksin's background. If he's not Amart my old man's a kipper.

Your old man's a kipper then.You are not only wrong but spectacularly wrong.Thaksin's family is from Chiangmai, relatively wealthy certainly and of Chinese extraction, but not amart.He is regarded and was regarded as noveau riche, and is looked down by those that matter.Frankly your mistake is to use terms you don't fully understand.

[davejones]

Testing 1500 'opinions' and calling that a poll, does not constitute truth for 12M people. Idiots...

If the opinion poll is weighted properly it should be quite accurate. Don't know where you get 12M from, as there are only around 4M eligible voters. Sounds like you don't understand how polling works. Sounds like the polling companies here also don't understand.

Edited March 4, 2013 by davejones

[PREM-R]

Just shows that the "invisible hand" of the Amart is sill tightly clasped around the throat of Bangkok, never mind, Tiocfaidh ár lá (for mods "our day will come")

You have made a definite statement. Can you please tell us who the "invisible hand" and the Armart are? I hear this statement from the red supporters but none of them can define who these people are. Would you be so kind as to enlighten us my friend? Evidently you know.

Secondly who is "our" in your statement "our day will come"?

The Amart are "Old Money" ultra wealthy families of mostly Chinese descent who have for decades controlled Thailand through their political wing known as the Democrat party, their military wing known as the Royal Thai army and in recent years by their para-military group known as "yellow shirts". Remember the take over of the Airports? The Amart/Invisible hand control rice exports, construction materials, transport and almost everything that has large government contracts. "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day will come), google is your friend.

.

Still only elusiveness... no names... stealthily obtuse... with only a mysterious and disingenuous referral to google.

...and no explanation of "our"

.

Aaah! now I see, you are confusing me with the guy with a similar name to me, he will surely be able to supply all the information you require on the Amart including addresses and phone numbers. I am sure he will be able to supply similar information on the senior army generals also.