Cheltenham Festival 2013, 12Th.-15Th March

[prestburypark]

For the first time in years I am not at home in Cheltenham for the climax of the National Hunt season which has come around all too quickly again. I will miss the Cheltenham Roar as the tape goes up for the first race of the first day, a sound that moves the hearts of all who have been fortunate enough to have heard it in the flesh.

For the Mods..I do not condone or encourage gambling whatsoever in this thread, it is purely an interested observers ideas about the competitors, both equine and human and their chances or lack thereof in this great sporting occasion.

I would humbly like to give a little background of the festival and some analysis of the Group 1 races, 12 of them spread over the four days of the event.

There are some 27 races in total over the 4 days, so concentrating on the Group 1 races is my way of not getting information overload. Please feel free to post your own analyses of these or the other races , after all, it is difference of opinion that makes racing so interesting.

Brief background: there has been racing at Cheltenham since the early 1800's. but the Festival in it present form dates from 1902.

Situated at Prestbury Park at the foot of Cleeve Hill, on the edge of Cheltenham, the course is a delightful venue nestled within a natural amphitheatre.

There are two courses, both left handed ovals: the Old Course, used for the first two days , and the New Course , used for the final two days of the Festival, including the highlight: The Gold Cup.

The going is arranged to be Good to Soft for the first day, by watering if it has been dry. The rest of the event is dependent on weather conditions.

The first day therefore is likely to be run at a slower pace due to the going.

The Group 1 races on the 12th. March, Champion Day are:

Supreme Novices Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+ : The Cheltenham Roar goes up as this race kicks off the Festival in style:

Analysis:

Irish contenders have won 8 from the last 13 renewals so are worth a close look.

Stamina is everything at Cheltenham, unfit horses have no chance, Henderson and Nicholls know how to prepare horses for this race.

Prefer N.Hunt horses over ex flat horses as the going is more to their liking .(Guaranteed Good to Soft on first day.)

Last time out winners: 13 of last 15.

Look at who won last years Deloitte Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Royal Bond Novice Hurdle.

• Experience is key – Look for horses with 3 or more runs over hurdles – this accounts for 5 of the last 7 winners.
• Recent Run – in the past 20 yrs all the winners except two, have had a run within the previous 45 days.

Arkle Chase – 2m – 5yo+

The first big chase of the Festival .

Top Rated Hurdler – The last 11 winners from 12 having been rated 142 or more over hurdles.

Oppose Favourites – Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.

Odds of less than 11/1 – Only 1 winner in the past 20 years has been at odds greater than 11/1 on the day. So focus on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites.

Last Time Out Run – The selection must have come 1st or 2nd in his previous run.

Age – Oppose young 5yo horses.

Trials Races – Grade 2 November Novices at Cheltenham, Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December, the Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick and the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.

Champion Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+

Over £200k in prize money.

Won their previous race – 24 of the last 28 winners won their previous race.

Recent Run – They should of run this year.

Previous Cheltenham form – A win or place at Cheltenham already in their career. 17 of the last 26 winners have finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival. Particularlytheprevious year’s Champion Hurdle. 7 of the past 11 placed the previous year.

Age – Again younger horses 5yo do not tend to do as well – only 1 winner since 1985.

Irish Entries – As with the Supreme Novices – the Irish target this race on Day 1 with 9 Irish winners from the past 14.

Top 6 In The Market – 18 of the last 21 winners have come from the top 6 in the market.

Trials Races – The previous years Champion Hurdle, the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, 3 of the last 4 winners have competed in this race, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, Rabobank Champion Hurdle and Istabraq Hurdle.

Negatives - The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton – only 1 horse from 21 has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle after winning the Christmas Hurdle. Also The International Hurdle at Cheltenham only produced 1 winner in 37 years.

Of course you need to dig a bit to find your selections, I will post mine during the next week and after declarations. I will post for the other days separately or this post will be excessively long.

[meatboy]

cheltenham festival and yorks ebor meetings are dearest to my heart.

i was lucky to see the great arkle win one of his three gold cups[1968] can remember him going through a fence in front of the stands that caused the biggest ohhhhh you ever heard yet still went over the winning line before the second had jumped the last fence.

another great horse i will never forget was persian war who i saw win one of his three champion hurdles[1969]

to stand next to this fine beast who had blood vessels as thick as your wrist.i could sit and talk about the greatest race meeting that is and will always be the best in the world.

one last note i was lucky to be at york when the great brigadier gerard got beat.

oh the memories sadly as you get old you forget those great moments and by god there were plenty.