At What Point Do You Toss In The Towel?

[NeverSure]

Price inflation and loss of buying power of the dollar/Euro/pound are happening back in the homes of those currencies too, so it's not as if returning to your country of origin is going to make the problem vanish entirely and the process of returning home is likely to be expensive on its own.

The value of the baht against other currencies is somewhat cyclical. The market tends to correct over-reactions in time.

I've been buying a couple of baht of gold every time the exchange rate and local pricing seem advantageous (and I have the spare cash).No guarantee the price of gold will increase, but it's probably more likely to do so than some of the major currencies of debt-laden countries. If you accumulate enough to cover 6 months to a year of local expenses it'll give you a cushion for times when the exchange rate is abysmal and it'll probably offer a bit of inflation protection.

Wait until the Federal Reserve stop Quantative Easing and the chair is kicked away,as the US Dollar falls into the noose it's created for itself,could happen at the end of this year,hold on to your hats at that point and watch the death throes!

I don't get your point. If the fed stops quantitative easing, interest rates will rise. One of the reasons for a low dollar is that you can't get any interest on it right now. People are opting for other currencies which will pay them interest, such as the baht. They transfer their dollars into a Thai bank which simply means they create more demand for baht, driving its price up. Conversely they create less demand for those dollars, driving the price down.

Right now the fed is deliberately keeping interest rates and therefore the value of the dollar down to help exports. In their minds it also stimulates the economy but that's another debate.

So, if interest rates in the US go up, and people start wanting to sell another currency and bring their dollars home, it will create demand for dollars as opposed to that other currency.

[FunFon]

I see it a bit differently. People are pouring their international funds into US treasuries and other perceived-secure investments despite low or zero interest rates.

If the Treasury has to start paying interest on the incredibly high government debt, it will get much harder to balance the budget. Right now the Chinese and others are lending the US money for free.

IMO unless the fundamental mismanagement of the US financial system is corrected, it's possible that the oil trade and other international business will seriously start to move away from the dollar, and that's the factor that's really been artificially supporting it's value all these years.

I see the possibility of a huge major devaluation of the USD as a real possibility, and the long-term downward slide inevitable until the fundamental trends change.

[JLCrab]

The joke goes: What happens when you play a country song backwards? Your truck starts running, you get your dog back, you get yer girl back and life is good.

The US dollar is certainly down v the Thai Baht. But on 22 MAR 2013 the Dow Jones Average hit an all-time high value so you can make it up on the other end.

[FunFon]

The US dollar is certainly down v the Thai Baht. But on 22 MAR 2013 the Dow Jones Average hit an all-time high value so you can make it up on the other end.

-

Relevant:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fgrJuW_uKgI

[NeverSure]

I see it a bit differently. People are pouring their international funds into US treasuries and other perceived-secure investments despite low or zero interest rates.

If the Treasury has to start paying interest on the incredibly high government debt, it will get much harder to balance the budget. Right now the Chinese and others are lending the US money for free.

IMO unless the fundamental mismanagement of the US financial system is corrected, it's possible that the oil trade and other international business will seriously start to move away from the dollar, and that's the factor that's really been artificially supporting it's value all these years.

I see the possibility of a huge major devaluation of the USD as a real possibility, and the long-term downward slide inevitable until the fundamental trends change.

There is one fundamental difference between the US and most other countries which are printing and/or borrowing money to pay bills. The US owns huge resource reserves. If an accountant were to do a financial statement on the US, looking at assets and liabilities, things wouldn't look so grim.

Do you know that the US federal government owns about 40% of the land in the US? It's more than 50% of the Rockies and everything West of that. It's 80% of resource-rich Utah. This is huge.

Do you know that the US has more oil reserves in just one of its deposits than all of the rest of the world's oil reserves combined?

Do you know that even the US government office of budget and accounting, the independent government agency that reports such things to congress has chastised congress for not using that oil? That's not counting the oil that's being pumped and used, or the oil that's offshore or in Alaska or elsewhere. That's just one spot along the Rockies. Can you imagine what would happen if the people got desperate and demanded a government that would ignore the tree-huggers and use those resources?

Can you imagine how much new wealth, new jobs, new payroll taxes and oil sales money would be generated if the US decided to produce more oil than all of the rest of the world combined? Do you know what would then happen to the arrogant bistards in the Middle East? Can you imagine what that would do for the US's balance of trade? Right now the US is spending almost US$1 trillion a year on oil, when it is the king of oil!! Stupid.

Do you know that despite the vast timber resources owned by the government, that the US buys lumber from Canada due to tree-huggers?

Have you thought about how much mineral wealth there is in all of that desert area, including rare earth minerals that can't be touched due to tree huggers? Do you know that the US government owns enough coal to run the country for a couple of hundred years, and the technology is there to make it clean?

Natural gas? They don't even know how much they have until they drill for the oil, but right now the US can produce enough to last for more than 100 years, already tapped.

Have you thought about the cattle grazing and the farming on this huge chunk of land? Have you thought about the technology know-how that's owned by companies in the US? When we talk about the internet, all of which was invented in the US, we still talk about the US. Google, Amazon, Yahoo, MSN, Intel, Ebay, Microsoft, Cisco, ad infinitum. If the part of the internet that's in the US shut down today, it would shut down world wide. There would be no main trunk lines to authoritative DNS servers for one thing.

We don't even need to get into manufacturing know how, but the Toyota Camry and Pickups, Honda Accords, Mercedes, and a whole bunch of other foreign makes are made in the US, along with the US brands. Yes, they also make them in other countries, but the US hasn't forgotten how to manufacture.

Intel inside. AMD inside. Windows inside. Server. All of this technology belongs to, and profits go to, US companies.

Don't give up yet.

[JLCrab]

From #93 above: IMO unless the fundamental mismanagement of the US financial system is corrected

The US financial system has always been fundamentally mismanaged at least in someone's opinion... and so what?

[FunFon]

JLCrab, on 26 Mar 2013 - 14:01, said:

From #93 above: IMO unless the fundamental mismanagement of the US financial system is corrected

The US financial system has always been fundamentally mismanaged at least in someone's opinion... and so what?

-

The day of reckoning will come sooner or later. IMO it's getting closer a lot faster these days than in the past. The whole scam is based on people trusting TPTB to do the right thing, and for the past few decades that trust is getting eroded in wider and wider segments of society.

The fact that the central bankers themselves are starting to pay attention to the importance of sovereign gold holdings is I think significant, quite possible that there isn't as much there as there is supposed to be, no independent audits are being permitted.

-

NeverSure, on 26 Mar 2013 - 13:59, said:

There is one fundamental difference between the US and most other countries which are printing and/or borrowing money to pay bills. The US owns huge resource reserves. If an accountant were to do a financial statement on the US, looking at assets and liabilities, things wouldn't look so grim.

...

Intel inside. AMD inside. Windows inside. Server. All of this technology belongs to, and profits go to, US companies.

Don't give up yet.

-

I think the human and environmental costs involved in extracting value from those resources will ensure they will still be in the Earth our Mother for many years to come.

When the truth comes out about the incredible dangers to human health caused by current fracking methods that boom will slow down pretty quickly.

In any case I think the central bank and government financial mismanagement is a factor completely independent of the economy itself.

The government's assets will be released to benefit the private sector, not sold to benefit the government directly.

Edited March 26, 2013 by FunFon

[JLCrab]

Thank you for the gloom & doom report for the day. Once gold became to Fox News what pimple cream is to MTV I started to relax.

BTW if the day-of-reckoning comes, you probably will miss it given your 350+ TV/forum posts in the 2 weeks since you have joined.

Edited March 26, 2013 by JLCrab

[FunFon]

Not gloom and doom at all, only if you identify with the losing side of global trends, my point would be to do your best to place your bets on the winning side.

And trying to point out to people that think the current trends are anomalies and sometime soon things will "return to normal", that these are possibly long-term systemic trends.

Globalization and concentration of wealth is favoring only certain sectors of farang country populations, certainly not the welfare of most citizens.

I think long term the trend is for conditions to equalize more and more, and the way some regions and countries are accelerating their development the whole we-are-superior mindset is becoming more and more laughable, we're going to have to compete fair and square like everyone else by working hard and saving and being smart. Those societies that don't and aren't will continue to decline.

As they should, that's a good thing, not bad.

[NeverSure]

"The government's assets will be released to benefit the private sector, not sold to benefit the government directly."

You have NO concept of how an economy works. You can't release the assets without creating a massive number of good paying jobs. Those new employees become solid taxpayers. They go off the dole and instead contribute. All it would take to balance the US budget is to release some assets in a way that would generate a lot of new wealth paying a lot of new taxes, and to therefore get people off the dole.

One more time, the old bankers' rule of double. Pay attention please. If you have $100 in the bank and make a deposit for $10 your new balance should be $110. BUT, if you make the mistake of entering that $10 in the check column and subtract it, your balance will show $90. That's a $20 outage, or double the amount entered.

The same thing happens with a government budget. If you can take a guy off the dole of say $1,000 per month, and instead get him working and paying $1,000 a month in taxes, your gain is double. You are $2,000 ahead. That's a clear fact.

47% of US citizens don't pay taxes. More than half are receiving some kind of government assistance. If you could get them to work, using the rule of double...

Edited March 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[JLCrab]

Another beat-the-house winner on TV/Forum. Why do they end up here?

[FunFon]

Problem in the US is no one's got the guts to actually collect the necessary taxes because the whole political system's been gamed by the high-rollers.

Put in real campaign finance reform with teeth and all the very real problems become at least possible to fix. Without that fundamental prerequisite it'll continue to go down the toilet with a government fundamentally unable to actually do its job.

[JLCrab]

Thank you. Elucidating. I'll let you and the folks at e.g. PIMCO do the worrying for me.

[NeverSure]

Not gloom and doom at all, only if you identify with the losing side of global trends, my point would be to do your best to place your bets on the winning side.

And trying to point out to people that think the current trends are anomalies and sometime soon things will "return to normal", that these are possibly long-term systemic trends.

Globalization and concentration of wealth is favoring only certain sectors of farang country populations, certainly not the welfare of most citizens.

I think long term the trend is for conditions to equalize more and more, and the way some regions and countries are accelerating their development the whole we-are-superior mindset is becoming more and more laughable, we're going to have to compete fair and square like everyone else by working hard and saving and being smart. Those societies that don't and aren't will continue to decline.

As they should, that's a good thing, not bad.

Spoken like a true loser. (Not saying you are, but that's what a loser who couldn't find a piece of the pie would say.)

Did you see in the US news the "Occupy Wall Street" losers? Yes they were. They were losers wanting something for nothing. They didn't want to be a winner, they wanted handouts from winners.

It never works that way. There are people who make it happen, and then there are those who wonder what the hell happened, to paraphrase an old quote.

Do you realize that some of the wealthiest "corporate" winners are self-made? Do you realize that they too are globalizing? Ever heard of Bill Gates or the guys who started Google from a dorm room or Jeff Bezos of Amazon or the founders of Ebay or Michael Dell or any other of thousands of upstart guys and women who dove in, took a chance, and became billionaires?

Now I suppose they are the evil ones, and aren't entitled to enjoy their success?

[NeverSure]

Concerned yes , panic no as for returning back to the USA not an option , when I left 3 years ago no way I could live on what I get every every month in the US . Just have to tuck it in a little to adjust the current status of the baht ... I didnt come here to be a rich farrang .. Came to enjoy life ..... Maybe a few more 30 baht meals is all it means to me ....

I'm still struggling to figure which is cheapest - Thailand or rural US. In parts of Thailand rent is a lot cheaper, and local food is cheaper. Utilities including electric, cable and internet are cheaper.

Beyond that, so many things are cheaper in the US. All kinds of consumer goods from cars, especially but not only used, clothes, Western food, beer and alcohol, sundries right down to laundry soap, gasoline, all cheaper. In a very rural area among really nice rural folks, you don't have to keep up appearances and housing is darned cheap right now and you own the land. Interest rates on houses are way down. I just looked and a 10 year mortgage is just 2.5%. Once you buy the house, even if it isn't paid for, you could get a reverse mortgage and stop the payments for life. Not bad if you have to go that way. Houses are cheap right now in some rural areas - way cheaper than replacement cost.

Here. Buy this. it includes the land of about 1/4 acre. Immediately get a reverse mortgage. Buy a $5,000 used car. That would be a good car. Then live like the locals and don't put on a show.

Here. I love this country. Game is abundant including deer and elk, and the people are the salt of the earth. Link

[FunFon]

NeverSure, on 26 Mar 2013 - 14:55, said:

Spoken like a true loser. (Not saying you are, but that's what a loser who couldn't find a piece of the pie would say.)

Did you see in the US news the "Occupy Wall Street" losers? Yes they were. They were losers wanting something for nothing. They didn't want to be a winner, they wanted handouts from winners.

It never works that way. There are people who make it happen, and then there are those who wonder what the hell happened, to paraphrase an old quote.

Do you realize that some of the wealthiest "corporate" winners are self-made? Do you realize that they too are globalizing? Ever heard of Bill Gates or the guys who started Google from a dorm room or Jeff Bezos of Amazon or the founders of Ebay or Michael Dell or any other of thousands of upstart guys and women who dove in, took a chance, and became billionaires?

Now I suppose they are the evil ones, and aren't entitled to enjoy their success?

-

I have no idea where you're getting your interpretation of what I'm talking about. Of course the people you're talking about are winners from the current trends.

My point is that standards of living for ordinary working people have been drastically falling as a result of those same factors, and it is my belief that this will continue, to the point that people without the necessary skills and confidence in our own countries will end up living in third-world conditions.

Nowhere do I say anything about the government protecting anyone from these consequences or unreasonably taking anything away from those wealth-creators. But I do believe in democracy, to the point that I think everyone should be required to vote, there should be much greater transparency and participation by ordinary citizens in government, people should be able to trust those they elect etc etc. Don't you agree with those principles?

In any case the fact remains that the currency and government finances do need to be managed responsibly, and right now there is little semblance of functioning democracy. And it seems pretty clear that those who are actually in charge don't give a stuff about the welfare of the country as a whole.

IMO.

[FunFon]

NeverSure, on 26 Mar 2013 - 15:19, said:

I'm still struggling to figure which is cheapest - Thailand or rural US.

-

I personally wouldn't enjoy my life living in such areas.

Also long term, for me modern life requires either living in a city or well-developed public transport, which is pretty rare stateside. Putting down roots someplace that absolutely requires owning a private automobile just isn't responsible or even sensible IMO.

Unless you're in an intentional close-to-self-sufficient community of like-minded people, but that' pretty hard to achieve without major wealth these days.

[JLCrab]

It's always fun when someone says something like 'the fact remains' and then offers an opinion.

[FunFon]

In any case the fact remains that the currency and government finances do need to be managed responsibly.

-

It's always fun when someone says something like 'the fact remains' and then offers an opinion.

-

Are you claiming to disagree with the fact above, which I still I feel remains?

[JLCrab]

Yes ... and good for you.

[NeverSure]

NeverSure, on 26 Mar 2013 - 14:55, said:

Spoken like a true loser. (Not saying you are, but that's what a loser who couldn't find a piece of the pie would say.)

Did you see in the US news the "Occupy Wall Street" losers? Yes they were. They were losers wanting something for nothing. They didn't want to be a winner, they wanted handouts from winners.

It never works that way. There are people who make it happen, and then there are those who wonder what the hell happened, to paraphrase an old quote.

Do you realize that some of the wealthiest "corporate" winners are self-made? Do you realize that they too are globalizing? Ever heard of Bill Gates or the guys who started Google from a dorm room or Jeff Bezos of Amazon or the founders of Ebay or Michael Dell or any other of thousands of upstart guys and women who dove in, took a chance, and became billionaires?

Now I suppose they are the evil ones, and aren't entitled to enjoy their success?

-

I have no idea where you're getting your interpretation of what I'm talking about. Of course the people you're talking about are winners from the current trends.

My point is that standards of living for ordinary working people have been drastically falling as a result of those same factors, and it is my belief that this will continue, to the point that people without the necessary skills and confidence in our own countries will end up living in third-world conditions.

Nowhere do I say anything about the government protecting anyone from these consequences or unreasonably taking anything away from those wealth-creators. But I do believe in democracy, to the point that I think everyone should be required to vote, there should be much greater transparency and participation by ordinary citizens in government, people should be able to trust those they elect etc etc. Don't you agree with those principles?

In any case the fact remains that the currency and government finances do need to be managed responsibly, and right now there is little semblance of functioning democracy. And it seems pretty clear that those who are actually in charge don't give a stuff about the welfare of the country as a whole.

IMO.

I think we agree on some things, but disagree on others. Anyone who's spent a week in any of the Western countries know that the infrastructure is vastly superior. I even poor people have better hygiene and safer sidewalks and safer drivers around them. It will be a long time if third world countries catch up in many of those ways.

Looking back 50 years to where the average US family had one car, fewer had college, more worked in factories, etc., I think that's how the "poor" in the US lives, except they drive their SUV to government offices to get their food stamps, apply for medicaid, and housing assistance.

I do agree something drastic has to be done about the budgets. I think there is a lot of waste, and I already posted that using resources to create jobs would put money into the coffers. I think it can be hit from more than one direction.

[NeverSure]

NeverSure, on 26 Mar 2013 - 14:55, said:

Spoken like a true loser. (Not saying you are, but that's what a loser who couldn't find a piece of the pie would say.)

Did you see in the US news the "Occupy Wall Street" losers? Yes they were. They were losers wanting something for nothing. They didn't want to be a winner, they wanted handouts from winners.

It never works that way. There are people who make it happen, and then there are those who wonder what the hell happened, to paraphrase an old quote.

Do you realize that some of the wealthiest "corporate" winners are self-made? Do you realize that they too are globalizing? Ever heard of Bill Gates or the guys who started Google from a dorm room or Jeff Bezos of Amazon or the founders of Ebay or Michael Dell or any other of thousands of upstart guys and women who dove in, took a chance, and became billionaires?

Now I suppose they are the evil ones, and aren't entitled to enjoy their success?

-

I have no idea where you're getting your interpretation of what I'm talking about. Of course the people you're talking about are winners from the current trends.

My point is that standards of living for ordinary working people have been drastically falling as a result of those same factors, and it is my belief that this will continue, to the point that people without the necessary skills and confidence in our own countries will end up living in third-world conditions.

Nowhere do I say anything about the government protecting anyone from these consequences or unreasonably taking anything away from those wealth-creators. But I do believe in democracy, to the point that I think everyone should be required to vote, there should be much greater transparency and participation by ordinary citizens in government, people should be able to trust those they elect etc etc. Don't you agree with those principles?

In any case the fact remains that the currency and government finances do need to be managed responsibly, and right now there is little semblance of functioning democracy. And it seems pretty clear that those who are actually in charge don't give a stuff about the welfare of the country as a whole.

IMO.

The more I read what you write, the more confused I think you are. Are you talking about the US when you mention "functioning democracy?"

The US isn't and never was a democracy and I'm very happy it isn't. It would be gone by now.

[FunFon]

The more I read what you write, the more confused I think you are. Are you talking about the US when you mention "functioning democracy?"

The US isn't and never was a democracy and I'm very happy it isn't. It would be gone by now.

-

Yes I am, and although I disagree about the consequence, think that wouldn't be a bad one if it came down to that.

I'm actually pretty strongly opposed to the whole concept of nationalism full stop, but concede if it were one world then the robber baron mafias would be running the whole show much more than they already are.

[NeverSure]

Not gloom and doom at all, only if you identify with the losing side of global trends, my point would be to do your best to place your bets on the winning side.

And trying to point out to people that think the current trends are anomalies and sometime soon things will "return to normal", that these are possibly long-term systemic trends.

Globalization and concentration of wealth is favoring only certain sectors of farang country populations, certainly not the welfare of most citizens.

I think long term the trend is for conditions to equalize more and more, and the way some regions and countries are accelerating their development the whole we-are-superior mindset is becoming more and more laughable, we're going to have to compete fair and square like everyone else by working hard and saving and being smart. Those societies that don't and aren't will continue to decline.

As they should, that's a good thing, not bad.

Why don't you just join the Occupy Wall Street losers and protest in public?

Corporations are the backbone of capitalism. They create the jobs and the wealth. SOME people know how to invest in them and get ahead. Corporations are owned by people like you and me. We own them in our retirement accounts, in our private accounts, and they provide us with the consumer goods we expect to find at the store when we go there. They provide us with the medicines we need when we get sick. They invest the capital that they collect from stockholders like you and me, and make our world better. Without them, not only wouldn't you have a car or taxi or scooter or public bus or even a bicycle to ride, but you'd be vaulted back into the 19th century. You wouldn't have a phone, internet or electricity, much less soap to wash your clothes or a sink to wash them in.

As the old saying goes, you wouldn't have a pot to pee in, and maybe you don't.

All you are doing with your posts is verifying that you are a loser, looking in from the outside with great jealousy at those who have done something with their lives.

Run along.

Edited March 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[FunFon]

Again, you're projecting your own assumptions about my attitudes, I completely agree with your assessment of the value of corporations in driving humanity's economic and technological development.<br /><br />None of which has anything to do with what we were just talking about as far as I can tell anyway. Perhaps you come from a world where people talk and think in pre-defined pigeonhole boxes, but that approach sure seems limited from where I'm sitting.<br />

Edited March 26, 2013 by FunFon

[NeverSure]

Again, you're projecting your own assumptions about my attitudes, I completely agree with your assessment of the value of corporations in driving humanity's economic and technological development.<br /><br />None of which has anything to do with what we were just talking about as far as I can tell anyway. Perhaps you come from a world where people talk and think in pre-defined pigeonhole boxes, but that approach sure seems limited from where I'm sitting.<br />

Try to keep up. You are complaining about how the few are amassing the riches, and the many are not doing as well. I disagree, except in 3rd world countries.

It is apparent that many working people can still buy and own a home and get it paid off. It is apparent that auto ownership is normal, even for so called low income people. Unless they are alcoholics or drug addicts who have landed themselves in the street through no fault of society, the most likely have a washer and dryer, microwave and even a dishwasher.

If that's your definition of poor, you haven't seen much of the world. Low income is a relative thing, and in the US I have never seen anyone go hungry or not have decent housing unless they got there through personal choices.

Now as I said, run along.

[FunFon]

Try to keep up. You are complaining about how the few are amassing the riches, and the many are not doing as well. I disagree, except in 3rd world countries.

It is apparent that many working people can still buy and own a home and get it paid off. It is apparent that auto ownership is normal, even for so called low income people. Unless they are alcoholics or drug addicts who have landed themselves in the street through no fault of society, the most likely have a washer and dryer, microwave and even a dishwasher.

If that's your definition of poor, you haven't seen much of the world. Low income is a relative thing, and in the US I have never seen anyone go hungry or not have decent housing unless they got there through personal choices.

Now as I said, run along.

-

It would be more constructive if you could refrain from disparaging remarks in your comments. Please.

I wasn't at all complaining, simply observing objectively established and commonly acknowledged facts - just look at average and mean adjusted income distribution statistics over the past fifty years, the standard of living has been falling for all but the top percentage of the population over that time.

I'm not at all advocating that people should be taken care of by the government, certainly better for all concerned to let those that can't fend for themselves get crushed, it's a state of nature out there let the fittest survive, way too many people on the planet anyway, as I said no reason the average American should catch a break compared to the average African or Asian, if they don't have the necessary skillsets, flexibility and entrepreneurial spirit they're just consuming resources that should be put to better use, ideally left so other species can thrive.

Edited March 26, 2013 by FunFon

[draggons]

Looking forward to my trip back to UK - will be better value

Don't count on it, I just got back from the UK last week and I found prices to be eyewateringly high in many areas, plus it never got over 6 degrees and the sky was always that wonderful shade of grey that most Brits have come to loathe over time.

I'm back working in Scotland just now and don't find the prices that bad. To be truthfull decent good food is a lot cheaper than in Thailand. After 10 years away it's great to be able to walk into Tesco etc. and get whatever you want. Only bitch is the price of fuel

[jbrain]

What about you?

Don't worry about the OP, he's just a troll opening threads to never return.

One day he's the richest of the lot retired at 28, the next thread he's looking for a room at 2000 baht/month with aircon and swimming pool.

[HardenedSoul]

What about you?

Don't worry about the OP, he's just a troll opening threads to never return.

One day he's the richest of the lot retired at 28, the next thread he's looking for a room at 2000 baht/month with aircon and swimming pool.

Yep the OP's a classic fantasist.

I seem to recall he boasted of being able to cover his monthly bills with a click of his mouse and being more or less retired at 31.

So lucrative is his business that he's looking to pack all his worldlies into a bin liner in a valiant effort to save all of a grand a month on his current rent of - wait for it - THB3,000 (three thousand) per month.

I doubt he's got a towel to throw in