Why Are So Many Here Intent On Thailand's Economy Collapsing ?

[MrWorldwide]

I'm not talking about a 'correction' - I'm talking about a full-blown '97 style collapse. I have seen several in this forum predicting that it will happen, and soon, and they clearly relish the prospect. Lets ignore the fact that the goalposts have moved 90 degrees since 1997, and that a very large chunk of the West is now dealing with its own 'crisis' - much easier to predict doom and gloom for Thailand.

If you want a cheap holiday amidst millions of unemployed people with little hope for the future, go to Spain. I'm mystified as to why the current prosperity in Thailand wounds some of us so deeply that we seem to want to see the place go down in flames - <deleted> is going on here ? Even if you were getting 100 baht to the pound or whatever post-collapse, would your quality of life in a bankrupt country be worth the hollow 'victory' of having been a faceless fortune teller on an internet forum.

Personally, I'm all for a correction and a stable baht somewhere around 30-31 US cents, but either way nothing I type here is going to amount to a hill of beans when the economists sit down each quarter to evaluate Thailand's performance. If the US gets it act together, inevitably the exchange rate will improve, but that has been lost in the hysteria around the 'impossibly strong' baht.

I understand the bitching about the visa system and the frustrations of life in someone else's country, but wanting to see that country fail economically is just self-defeating, IMO. I just dont know how anyone can look at this chart and tell me the 'problem' lies with Thailand, unless you know something about the US economy that Washington is clearly unaware of. Maybe the Thais who are responsible for the fact that the city of Detroit is completely bankrupt ? Cant wait to hear the haters' spin on that one ...

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

If California can turn it around, surely there are enough smart people in the US to do the same in their own states ?

[Naam]

Cant wait to hear the haters' spin on that one ...

http://www.xe.com/cu...to=THB&view=10Y

that's what the "haters" are "hating" and hope for an economic collapse going hand in hand with the collapse of the Baht vs. their perceived home currencies and/or the currencies of their income.

as simple as that.

[mamypoko]

Have you directly asked the several members you've seen in this forum?

What did they say?

(I'd like to know)

Edited March 23, 2013 by mamypoko

[morrobay]

^^ Right - Im not an economist but what Ive read by for example NeverSure, sure makes sense to me.in an objective way.

[Pib]

Just delusions of wanting their home country currency to get a better exchange rate against the baht. Delusions increase as the exchange rate worsens. I try to control my delusions with Chang beer, but Chang might be making the delusions worst.

[givenall]

just like the stock market predication, majorities are wrong

[MrWorldwide]

But even if the nutters *were* right, what possible joy would they take from seeing Thailand's economy slide down the plughole ? It just boggles my tiny mind - one of the few countries that puts a smile on my face (regardless of the frustrations) and the haters want to see Thailand reduced to something more akin to Cambodia or PI, presumably because they think that will make them 'Masters of the Universe' once more. It's just messed up - go to India if you want to find yourself surrounded by people without a pot to p*ss in.

[CaptHaddock]

>> If the US gets it act together, inevitably the exchange rate will improve, but that has been lost in the hysteria around the 'impossibly strong' baht.

The exchange rate for USD is not some amorphous measurement of the level of confidence either Americans or others have about the US.
The largest factor affecting it is whether the country runs a trade deficit or a trade surplus. The US has run large trade surpluses for the past 30 years or more. In the long run such trade surpluses are corrected by a devaluation of the currency on the world currency markets, e.g. Canada in the 60's. Because of its current, and probably temporary, status as the world's sole reserve currency the USD has not so far been depreciated enough to reverse the trade deficit. Since the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession consumption in the US is down which has cut the trade deficit in half. Eventually, although perhaps not very soon, the US economy will recover, consumption will return to pre-crisis levels and the USD will again be subject to devaluation pressure. But since none of this will happen in a vacuum, the value of the USD will depend also on what happens to the EUR and, to a lesser extent, the CNY.

Therefore, it seems reasonable not to expect a crash in the USD, but not a substantial improvement either unless the EUR crashes, for instance.

[chiang mai]

It's always been that way on Thaivisa, large segments of the farang community being unable to accept that the economy here is in better shape than in their home country, convinced also that the rise in the Baht is the result of manipulation by past PM's or similar and that normal service will be resumed once again, some day soon, only time and a good dose of poverty will change their views.

[siampolee]

I think you'll find that many of we longer foreign residents here in Thailand, retired, working or bushiness operators are concerned when we see the same group of names and people who were closely involved in the 1997 meltdown involved in this current financial scene.

We lived through some challenging times, although for many of us it didn't hurt us, however we who have family ties here ( no pun intended) did see suffering in our family network and in fact around us in general.

Remember also that a number of us had and no doubt in many case also have recently experienced tumultuous financial tempests in our countries of origin or the countries where our investments and banking was or is carried out. hence the concern shown.

It is not a desire to see a failure of the financial system but a desire to see a properly regulated financial system in place, when one views the events elsewhere in the world of finance you can realise why there are fears regarding the current financial situation here.

We see the current situation in Cyprus which proves yet again in reality no sovereign state is in reality in control of its financial destiny, bankers, insurance companies and wealthy individuals etc control the movements of currency not governments.

We all want a settled stable economy, the current situation is in my view and many others too not as stable as one would wish to see, old experiences come back to haunt us, hence the ringing of those alarm bells.

Edited March 23, 2013 by siampolee

[Naam]

But even if the nutters *were* right, what possible joy would they take from seeing Thailand's economy slide down the plughole ? It just boggles my tiny mind - one of the few countries that puts a smile on my face (regardless of the frustrations) and the haters want to see Thailand reduced to something more akin to Cambodia or PI, presumably because they think that will make them 'Masters of the Universe' once more. It's just messed up - go to India if you want to find yourself surrounded by people without a pot to p*ss in.

it is well known that frustration makes a person bitch or hate his/her environment even if the latter did not really cause it. in the case of expats it is clear that they blame the environment, id est Thailand and the results are

-they don't want us,

-they make life miserable for us,

-they want only our money,

-everything is more expensive than <insert country>

-let's move to "Cambo" or <insert country>

-beer and girls are cheaper in <insert country>.

it doesn't take a shrink, psychologist or rocket science to figure out from what financial level most

of these complains originate, notwithstanding the fact that exceptions exist proving the rule! there might be "permanent travellers" who own big money and who's belonging fit in a suitcase. but rule of thumb is that most of those who claim "because Thailand has become to expensive i might move to Cambodia, the Philippines or Ecuador... what about Costa Rica or Paraguay?" own only slightly more than the proverbial pot to pïss in and have to make ends meet on a budget which is highly affected by the prevailing exchange rate.

[kennedy]

I think you'll find that many of we longer foreign residents here in Thailand, retired, working or bushiness operators are concerned when we see the same group of names and people who were closely involved in the 1997 meltdown involved in this current financial scene.

We lived through some challenging times, although for many of us it didn't hurt us, however we who have family ties here ( no pun intended) did see suffering in our family network and in fact around us in general.

Remember also that a number of us had and no doubt in many case also have recently experienced tumultuous financial tempests in our countries of origin or the countries where our investments and banking was or is carried out. hence the concern shown.

It is not a desire to see a failure of the financial system but a desire to see a properly regulated financial system in place, when one views the events elsewhere in the world of finance you can realise why there are fears regarding the current financial situation here.

We see the current situation in Cyprus which proves yet again in reality no sovereign state is in reality in control of its financial destiny, bankers, insurance companies and wealthy individuals etc control the movements of currency not governments.

We all want a settled stable economy, the current situation is in my view and many others too not as stable as one would wish to see, old experiences come back to haunt us, hence the ringing of those alarm bells.

Thank you. I was about to put my hip boots on, but you pretty much cleared things up.Using the hate card or "simple as that" and wishing a "good dose of poverty" on someones family to see it my way,is very shallow thinking. Thankfully I don't have any financial concerns,but will not totally dismiss others as being greedy lesser people when they voice their opinions.

[Tomtomtom69]

Every year Thailand gets more tourists, or so it seems according to the statistics. With Thailand being as dependent on tourism as it is, it is highly unlikely an economic collapse would occur. The Thai tourism industry is in solid shape.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Tomtomtom69

[MrWorldwide]

I think you'll find that many of we longer foreign residents here in Thailand, retired, working or bushiness operators are concerned when we see the same group of names and people who were closely involved in the 1997 meltdown involved in this current financial scene.

We lived through some challenging times, although for many of us it didn't hurt us, however we who have family ties here ( no pun intended) did see suffering in our family network and in fact around us in general.

Remember also that a number of us had and no doubt in many case also have recently experienced tumultuous financial tempests in our countries of origin or the countries where our investments and banking was or is carried out. hence the concern shown.

It is not a desire to see a failure of the financial system but a desire to see a properly regulated financial system in place, when one views the events elsewhere in the world of finance you can realise why there are fears regarding the current financial situation here.

We see the current situation in Cyprus which proves yet again in reality no sovereign state is in reality in control of its financial destiny, bankers, insurance companies and wealthy individuals etc control the movements of currency not governments.

We all want a settled stable economy, the current situation is in my view and many others too not as stable as one would wish to see, old experiences come back to haunt us, hence the ringing of those alarm bells.

Thank you. I was about to put my hip boots on, but you pretty much cleared things up.Using the hate card or "simple as that" and wishing a "good dose of poverty" on someones family to see it my way,is very shallow thinking. Thankfully I don't have any financial concerns,but will not totally dismiss others as being greedy lesser people when they voice their opinions.

I believe it goes well beyond people 'voicing their opinions' - IMO, it's the kind of malevolent bitterness normally reserved for religious and racist extremists. Worst of all, it's completely and utterly futile - Farang have no means of changing the political or financial system in Thailand, short of petitioning their own governments to enact trade sanctions or something equally ludicrous.

Let's take a step back for a moment and look at the situation in one of the few developed countries currently able to boast a robust banking system and something resembling 'economic growth' - mine. If you follow the news, you will know that our federal government is currently doing its level best to hand power to the Opposition before the September election, and there is talk of a vote of 'no confidence' in the government. Just as I had no say in the original leadership spill that put out country in this crazy position, my lone vote in September wont make the slightest bit of difference to the result - we all know who the new government will be, and we all know how much money they will spend trying to roll back things like the carbon tax. The answer, IMO, is a benevolent dictatorship, but most dictators seem more Idi Amin than Lee Kuan Yew ... God knows Oz will dearly need the latter when we can no longer sell dirt and coal.

If I let it get to me, I expect it would end on the lawn outside Parliament House with an assault rifle and some tasty international news coverage, but I choose to let it slide. No amount of wishing is going to change Canberra, and I feel much the same way about Thailand, Indonesia and China. If the latter can achieve the numbers they do with that many hands in the till, imagine how frighteningly competitive they would be if they ever changed the culture and the numbers reflected actual productivity ? I expect that unemployed Spanish folk would agree that it's better to have corruption and jobs than corruption and no jobs.

[fletchsmile]

Some people focus too much on comparing their own lives relative to others, instead of focusing on their own happiness and success.

So when they think they can't make it themselves, they want others to be unhappy and fail too. In their minds at least the relatively they aren't too bad.

Fletch

[el jefe]

"Personally, I'm all for a correction and a stable baht somewhere around 30-31 US cents,... "

That's 3.3 baht to the dollar.

I know what the OP meant when he wrote this, but if the US govt keeps running trillion dollar deficits and if we live long enough, that's what we'll get.

I'd love to see a "stable" USD/THB rate above 30 but, unfortunately, those idiot Thais are doing a better job at running their govt and economy than the brilliant Americans and Europeans.

[yoshiwara]

Some see a continuing disconnect between the currency and what is perceived to be happening on the ground.

Currency disconnect is not unusual. The question is what is one going to do about it if that is one's analysis.

[Soutpeel]

when one makes an in-depth analysis of Thai fiscal policies and the current Socio-economic conditions in Thailand, one can only draw one conclusion as to the posted question of "Why Are So Many Here Intent On Thailand's Economy Collapsing".....

They a miserable bitter sad little men who are sh*tting themselves that they may no longer be able to afford living in the a 3rd world country were they have a sense of superiority over the "natives" and they have to go back to wence they came from...

[jocko]

"Personally, I'm all for a correction and a stable baht somewhere around 30-31 US cents,... "

That's 3.3 baht to the dollar.

I know what the OP meant when he wrote this, but if the US govt keeps running trillion dollar deficits and if we live long enough, that's what we'll get.

I'd love to see a "stable" USD/THB rate above 30 but, unfortunately, those idiot Thais are doing a better job at running their govt and economy than the brilliant Americans and Europeans.

Oh be fair it was only a bit of greed

[Rancid]

The Thai economy is doing OK, however if the world economy tanks then so will Thailand, even harder with all the debt they are taking on. Much of the world economy is experiencing high unemplyment and is technically bankrupt shoring up their masters in the banking industry. Money printing is all that is holding it all together. I suppose if you think this is sustainable then everything is dandy, but how long can they kick the can down the road? Obviously longer than the naysayers expected. Indefinitely, who knows but would seem unlikely. Anyway if it does tank the elite money will be out beforehand and that would be none here.

Expecting Thailand to fall over on its own seems absurd and expect it is wishful uninformed thinking for better exchange rates, obviously they haven't had a hard honest look at their home economies that are in far worse shape. Also will those western autocracies be trying to do a Cypress on bank accounts, oops there goes 10 - 20% of my money! Even Bernake refised to flat out deny the US would ever do the same when asked.

[MrWorldwide]

el jefe, on 23 Mar 2013 - 21:05, said:

"Personally, I'm all for a correction and a stable baht somewhere around 30-31 US cents,... "

That's 3.3 baht to the dollar.

I know what the OP meant when he wrote this, but if the US govt keeps running trillion dollar deficits and if we live long enough, that's what we'll get.

I'd love to see a "stable" USD/THB rate above 30 but, unfortunately, those idiot Thais are doing a better job at running their govt and economy than the brilliant Americans and Europeans.

Doh - I meant 30-31 baht to the dollar - I'll try to edit that OP - apologies to all for that little gem. (Looks like I'm too late - I'll just have to grin and bear it)

Edited March 23, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[Thailand1977]

Ive read many of these threads on this section of the forum and i haven't see any predicting there will be a 1997 style crash, anytime soon.

Well done for making that up.

PS But I will go all out and predict at some point in the future there will be a crash of 1997 proportions in Thailand, im just not saying exactly when.

PPS I have seen far more inflation in Thailand then in England since 2008 after all the printing thats gone on in the UK, and as the saying goes "inflation is the mother and father of unemployment".

[MrWorldwide]

Ive read many of these threads on this section of the forum and i haven't see any predicting there will be a 1997 style crash, anytime soon.

Well done for making that up.

PS But I will go all out and predict at some point in the future there will be a crash of 1997 proportions in Thailand, im just not saying exactly when.

PPS I have seen far more inflation in Thailand then in England since 2008 after all the printing thats gone on in the UK, and as the saying goes "inflation is the mother and father of unemployment".

I didn't make it up, and it might be time you re-read those threads. The prediction that it's all going to end in tears runs through each and every thread currently running on the baht or the THB-GBP exchange rate, and it was mentioned earlier in this thread that many expats see similar precursors in place to '97. Crystal balls are free, but it's the glee with which many seem to regard the prospect of a crash which prompted me to start this thread - if you dont like it, feel free to join the aforementioned doomsday threads.

[Time Traveller]

Forget all of the opinions here because you're reading too much into it. In general doomsayers are more vocal than everyone else. That's all it is. When a few crazy people declare the end of the world - that makes the headlines. You will never see headlines that 98% of people don't believe the world will end.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Time Traveller

[endure]

Because they want the return of 90 Baht to the £

[Naam]

Because they want the return of 90 Baht to the £

some insist on 92

[theoldgit]

It's no more than wishful thinking, it's not gonna happen.

I too would like 70, 80, 90 or even Naam's 92 Baht to the GBP but it's not going to happen and have structured my life accordingly.

[chiang mai]

Yes but, the question for many is, should one restructure for 55, 50, 45, 40 or 35, I say one should use 35 for financial planning purposes?

[theoldgit]

I restructure daily.

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

[MrWorldwide]

I posted something on a (non-Thai based) forum month's ago to the extent that 'Greece reportedly had it coming - they have mismanaged their economy' - the post was deleted and I received a warning from a moderator. AFAIK, very few on that forum had any connection to Greece, but clearly that is the level of political correctness on some boards. I come to TV and find people salivating at the prospect of the Thai economy imploding - you'll forgive me if I see that as something more than 'doomsaying' or whatever. It's pathetic, pure and simple, particularly when the US and UK both face problems which have nothing to do with Thailand.