Aus Dollarto Thb Exchange Rate

[midas]

As we already have a thread entitled Gbp To Thb Exchange Rate I thought I would ask the opinion of forex experts here of their opinion as to what they consider to be the main risks of keeping a fairly large sum of money in Sydney in Australian dollars, or whether they think it would be better to bring the funds over here and change them to baht?

Some people are saying the fundamentals for Australia will deteriorate and so the Australian dollar could weaken further but then also maybe the Thai baht will also weaken at some point?

But which one out of the two appears more vulnerable and why ?

Edited May 9, 2013 by midas

[jombom]

If it was me ---- I would leave the money in Aus.

In The short term (3 years), it seems the Baht is artificially strong, based on higher than normal interest rates, which are attracting foreign inflows. This has to moderate as exports are feeling the effect.

There are also potential powerful non-economic events in the short term, such as a variety of political factors, which could weigh heavily on the country.

In the medium term (3 to 8 years), the Aus economy looks the stronger, as the wealth is largely in the ground, and demand remains strong, as Asia grows and grows.

[midas]

If it was me ---- I would leave the money in Aus.

In The short term (3 years), it seems the Baht is artificially strong, based on higher than normal interest rates, which are attracting foreign inflows. This has to moderate as exports are feeling the effect.

There are also potential powerful non-economic events in the short term, such as a variety of political factors, which could weigh heavily on the country.

In the medium term (3 to 8 years), the Aus economy looks the stronger, as the wealth is largely in the ground, and demand remains strong, as Asia grows and grows.

Interesting response. Thanks.

Coincidentally, I was just watching ABC Australian television news and today the Australian dollar strengthened based on stronger employment figures which were not expected, although they are hard to interpret because the new jobs are not in the mining sector where you would expect them. They are on the east coast ? Also, many economists are warning not to read too much into this.

I share your views on Thailand. Yes as you say a lot of what happens in Australia will depend on the strength and continuity of the demand from China.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-09/dollar-rises-on-surprise-unemployment-figures/4680172

Edited May 9, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

If it was me ---- I would leave the money in Aus.

In The short term (3 years), it seems the Baht is artificially strong, based on higher than normal interest rates, which are attracting foreign inflows. This has to moderate as exports are feeling the effect.

There are also potential powerful non-economic events in the short term, such as a variety of political factors, which could weigh heavily on the country.

In the medium term (3 to 8 years), the Aus economy looks the stronger, as the wealth is largely in the ground, and demand remains strong, as Asia grows and grows.

"artificially strong Baht hurts exports, therefore not sustainable" is heard over and over again without taking into consideration that the strong Baht is positive for imports.

here's the beef:

Thailand exports 2012..........$226.2 billion

Thailand imports 2012..........$213.7 billion

Difference............................$ 12.5 billion (5.585%)

improvement compared to 2011 when the ex/import difference was 8.412%. it goes without saying that the positive effect of lower import prices does not necessarily ully benefit the exporters. but it's the bottom line that counts no matter what any wisecrack might argue.

[farang000999]

People are just grasping at straws to compare 97' Thailand to 2013' Thailand... kind of like how people are looking for 1970's style inflation which was caused by oil crisis to occur in 2013 because the US deficit is so high. Apples and Durian.

[midas]

People are just grasping at straws to compare 97' Thailand to 2013' Thailand... kind of like how people are looking for 1970's style inflation which was caused by oil crisis to occur in 2013 because the US deficit is so high. Apples and Durian.

Yes but surely you can't compare now with the 1997 crisis ? That was confined to this region while at that time the rest of the world was chugging along nicely.

Bill Clinton in USA was basking in the glory of a thriving American economy, there was no mention in Europe of the debt malaise hanging over so many of its countries as there is now and Japan was showing nowhere near the problems which are now starting to surface there.

Also, there was no discussion about the concern over the buildup of debt in China. And look at the amount of debt which Thailand is taking on itself once again?

We now have a perfect storm situation in terms of so many countries and indeed regions being swamped in debt without even mentioning the looming threat of conflict in the Middle East, which would send oil prices through the roof.

This would undoubtedly affect Thailand. ?

Edited May 10, 2013 by midas

[Mousehound]

An interesting one this. In my opinion the Australian Reserve bank will cut interest rates as the mining boom slows. This will drive the dollar down. The dollars true rate should be about the 85c AS and not over $1 as we have seen for some time. The Australian economy is a stable haven for funds and because of the high Aus bank interest rates and secure banking system Australia has been a good investment for overseas funds - further driving the A dollar up. However, now the World Banking system is is releasing a lot of cheap money onto the market and because of severe cost cutting by industry in the ASA and Europe the stock markets are on a bit a (if temporary) roll. So funds should drift from the lower Australian bank rates pushing the dollar downward. There is also a lot of presure to get the $A down, as its high level is hurting agricultural and other exports. Australia will need to shift its emphases away from mining if it is to develop in the future. Mining does not employ as many workers as does the construction of the mines for instance. Australia is also about to find life harder - there is going to be a lot of government financial reconstruction needed to cope with growing debt and Australians have a pretty high personal debt level. There are also signs that the housing bubble will burst soon. All this could make Australia a less attractive investment than it has been. If, however, there is another finacial saga like Cyprus but with a larger economy and say North Korea were to start attacking S Korea or China started to really push over the Spratley Islands then markets could look at Australia again. My ill informed guess is that the Australian dollar will slowly weaken to about 23Bht. How the BHT does - well I am sure there are even more theories about that. Political stability will most likely be the decider I would have thought.

[OZEMADE]

Aussie Dollar against the US just went below the US. 0.9994.

Aussie Dollar against the Thai baht now 29.50

According to the news tonight it will drop further against the US Dollar.

See link for the latest bad news.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/way-towards-parity-221710709.html

[Pib]

At this millisecond in time which is Friday night/10:15pm Bangkok time the USD. is making big gains against the majority of Asian/Pacific currencies...the AUD has dropped 0.99% against the USD and is below parity by a hair's width and the USD has gained 1.12% against the baht...approaching 30 baht to the USD again. See below....but remember the next millisecond may see a reversal of all of this.

[midas]

it has strengthened again today?

[David48]

Relevant to what you wrote about ... rates-cuts-and-a-short-george-the-end-in-sight

.

[whiteman]

If you need some more money to live in Thailand then bring it over I think in the short term the Ausy will weaken along with the Thai Bhat if not leave it in Ausy till you require it unless you can get more interest in the thai bank v the Ausy Bank. That is if your money is still sitting in an Ausy Bank as I type ( This I do not know) It depends how long you wish to live in Thailand? If you are here for the long Haul then bring it over now I am sure you will know where to put it for you knew how to make it in the first place unless it was given to you then if so read above and then you make the call.