Weather forecasts: who to believe?

[Jingthing]

I have noticed a pattern of wild differences in predictions between two sources I use.

1. The Thaivisa link above

2. Weather.com

Right now in Pattaya the Thaivisa link says HEAVY RAIN before 7 PM tonight. (11 mm)

Weather.com says NO RAIN until the evening, then a 60 percent chance of scattered t-storms.

I can understand minor differences but why such major differences?

I haven't bothered yet to do a long term analysis of which source is more accurate.

Does anyone have a better idea of which source is more reliable?

I have bad luck with umbrella bringing. When I bring it, it usually doesn't rain. When it don't, it often does. I don't like to schlep an umbrella if I don't have to.

Yeah, I know, earth shattering problems!

[joepattaya1961]

And...........? Which one was right?

I think weather.com

[h90]

yes who was right?

[mauGR1]

I was used to get 80 % accurate weather forecasts in my homecountry, except for mountain areas.

In Thailand , since long time, i have found the forecasts to be a joke, i guess it must have something to do with the tropical weather, 'coz i can't believe the meteorologysts to be so inept.

I do my own forecasts, with a pinch of pessimism added, it works for me

[Jingthing]

Neither was really right.

No rain during the day or evening.

Weather.com was closer.

A better predictor was that I walked around with my big arsed umbrella and didn't need it!

[joepattaya1961]

Maybe a new occupation: jingtingundergournd.com/weather_now

[Jingthing]

Maybe a new occupation: jingtingundergournd.com/weather_now

Not bad.

If I'm carrying an umbrella, you don't have to.

And vice versa.

[Bluetongue]

I look at the weather radar at tmd.go.th, its pretty ordinary compared to Australia. There used to be a Suvarnabhumi 240km one which reached me but it disappeared one day, now I have to use the Rayong one which is a totally different system but its showing a big arsed storm at the moment which I can also see out the window. Keep a brolly in the car and don't walk anywhere further than 800 metres.

[h90]

I was used to get 80 % accurate weather forecasts in my homecountry, except for mountain areas.

In Thailand , since long time, i have found the forecasts to be a joke, i guess it must have something to do with the tropical weather, 'coz i can't believe the meteorologysts to be so inept.

I do my own forecasts, with a pinch of pessimism added, it works for me

I got told that in difficult areas it is far more exact to use the todays weather as forecast for tomorrow than any computer model.

Don't know if it is really true or just cynical.

[ToddWeston]

My Garndfather always use to say tomorrow it will be 80 degrees.

40 in the morning and 40 in the afternoon,

[Ace of Pop]

I feel sorry for the Man with the Bucket, in or Province It can piss down for Days,but the ThaiMet online shows his daily catch is Zero. .

[jaideeguy]

I gave up on the weather forecasts here years ago and go to the Weather channel's animated south east Asia map and make my own guess as to which way the wind is blowing and if there are any rain clouds coming my way. If I don't have access to the weather channel map, I just look out the window................

[Jingthing]

I agree looking out the window is worthwhile. One thing I find funny when I'm carrying an umbrella based on big storm weather forecasts and so many Thais seeing it are telling me, it's not going to rain, and they're usually right.

[Payboy]