Syria's Assad says Western strike could trigger regional war

[Chicog]

You might have to figure out some way to move a lot of that oil as well.

Nice idea, if only life were that simple!

Ah they've both got oil and gas, just add it all up divvy it up per capita. **

Simple when you know how, isn't it?

** Of course you'd have to get the Kurds to play along....

[Scott]

Chicog, if anybody can do it, you can!

Best of luck!

[simple1]

I actually had a light-hearted conversation with a Shi'a colleague about this. I jokingly said the best thing to happen would be if all the Sunni from Iraq moved to Syria, and all the Shi'a and Alawites from Syria moved to Iraq. He laughed at first, thought about it and then said it would be a great idea!

Now if only we could explain it to the politicians....

This concept has been discussed before along the lines of a Shia Crescent, also a realignment of the borders orginating from the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. An few example analysis at the URLs below. As Scott said if only it were that simple and would not lead to a worse bloodbath that happened after Indian Independence

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/08spring/proctor.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/04/sunni%20shia%20abdo/sunni%20shia%20abdo.pdf

[Scott]

An inflammatory post has been deleted.

[Chicog]

This concept has been discussed before along the lines of a Shia Crescent, also a realignment of the borders orginating from the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. An few example analysis at the URLs below. As Scott said if only it were that simple and would not lead to a worse bloodbath that happened after Indian Independence

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/08spring/proctor.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/04/sunni%20shia%20abdo/sunni%20shia%20abdo.pdf

Well it's a bloodbath already, so what harm could it do?

[simple1]

This concept has been discussed before along the lines of a Shia Crescent, also a realignment of the borders orginating from the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. An few example analysis at the URLs below. As Scott said if only it were that simple and would not lead to a worse bloodbath that happened after Indian Independence

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/08spring/proctor.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/04/sunni%20shia%20abdo/sunni%20shia%20abdo.pdf

Well it's a bloodbath already, so what harm could it do?

True, but currently minimal in comparison to the number of deaths during the partition of India after Independence

[folium]

This concept has been discussed before along the lines of a Shia Crescent, also a realignment of the borders orginating from the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. An few example analysis at the URLs below. As Scott said if only it were that simple and would not lead to a worse bloodbath that happened after Indian Independence

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/08spring/proctor.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/04/sunni%20shia%20abdo/sunni%20shia%20abdo.pdf

Well it's a bloodbath already, so what harm could it do?

True, but currently minimal in comparison to the number of deaths during the partition of India after Independence

The disastrous partition of India saw the largest ever movement of people (approx 15 million) and the deaths numbered somewhere between a half to a million people.

Rejigging boundaries as suggested in the old Ottoman possessions would be a classic Pandora's Box of epic proportions. The world is riddled with nonsensical boundaries, most the legacy of European colonialism/meddling. Unwinding Yugoslavia precipitated a bloodbath inside Europe. Both this partition and that of India will resonate for several more genereations. If you start to unravel the Middle East, why not Africa, Asia, Latin America and see what happens.

Have a look back at the Biafra conflict for what the likely outcome would be...not pretty and a bold/rash step to initiate any such unwinding of boundaries.

[Credo]

The root problem seems to be religion. Unless that can be changed, I doubt there is much that can be done.

[folium]

The root problem seems to be religion. Unless that can be changed, I doubt there is much that can be done.

Well...yes & no.

The 30 Years War in Europe could be portrayed as a religious war but if you dig a little deeper it was actually far more about power-plays at the individual ruler level and national level. Much the same could be said for conflicts in the Middle East.

[Credo]

Well, since the main stumbling block (excuse) is religion, that is where a change would have to start. Religious beliefs are based on culture, which in this area is very tribal in nature.

[folium]

Well, since the main stumbling block (excuse) is religion, that is where a change would have to start. Religious beliefs are based on culture, which in this area is very tribal in nature.

You could say that much of the world is fundamentally tribal in nature, but what is illuminating and actually quite reassuring is how religious beliefs can be switched relatively (with obviously some major exceptions) easily. See the spread of catholocism in Latin America or more recently the spread of christianity in S.Korea.

For heavens sake the folk of Tanna island (part of Vanuatu) even worship Prince Phillip (husband of Queen of England)!!!

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/prince-phillip-cults-tanna-Vlad-Sokhin

[Credo]

I doubt very much that we will be seeing the folks in the ME worshiping Prince Philip or anyone other than the current Prophet.

So, your suggestion is what?

[SinglePot]

I doubt very much that we will be seeing the folks in the ME worshiping Prince Philip or anyone other than the current Prophet.

So, your suggestion is what?

He likes the sound of his own voice.

[SinglePot]

Well, since the main stumbling block (excuse) is religion, that is where a change would have to start. Religious beliefs are based on culture, which in this area is very tribal in nature.

You could say that much of the world is fundamentally tribal in nature, but what is illuminating and actually quite reassuring is how religious beliefs can be switched relatively (with obviously some major exceptions) easily. See the spread of catholocism in Latin America or more recently the spread of christianity in S.Korea.

For heavens sake the folk of Tanna island (part of Vanuatu) even worship Prince Phillip (husband of Queen of England)!!!

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/prince-phillip-cults-tanna-Vlad-Sokhin

For heaven's sake....

Yep. Great solution for the problems of Syria.

Keep me posted on how it works with Assad.

Cheers

[Chicog]

Aim of Geneva II must be transitional rule in Syria -- EU 21/10/2013 | 06:36 PM | World News

BRUSSELS, Oct 21 (KUNA) -- European Union on Monday welcomed the call of UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon for a peace conference in Geneva before end of November and urged all sides of the conflict to respond positively to this call.

A statement issued by the EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg said that the objective of the conference must "be the swift establishment, by mutual consent, of a transitional governing body (TGB) with full executive powers and control of all governmental and all security institutions." "The EU also considers that, in full conformity with the Geneva Communiqu{, the parties will have to agree during the conference on clear and irreversible steps and a short timeframe for the political transition. International participants of Geneva II should adhere to the principles included in the Geneva Communiqu{," it noted.

The EU ministers called on the opposition to come together and participate actively at the conference and encouraged the National Coalition of the Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces to take a leading role during negotiations.

The EU condemned the chemical attacks in Syria saying they constituted "a blatant violation of international law, which amounts to a crime against humanity and a war crime under the International Criminal Court (ICC)." "These crimes, as well as other atrocities and human rights violations and abuses must be investigated and perpetrators and those ordering these crimes must be held accountable," it stressed.

"The EU continues to be extremely concerned by the deteriorating situation in Syria, which makes it all the more urgent to put an end to all violence and to the suffering of the Syrian people, and find a political solution that meets their legitimate aspirations," it said and condemned the unprecedented use of force by the regime.

The EU, it said, "is seriously concerned with the growing involvement of extremist and foreign non-state actors in the fighting in Syria, which is further fueling the conflict and posing a threat to regional stability and called on all relevant parties to halt the support to these groups." (end) nk.rk KUNA 211836 Oct 13NNNN

[Chicog]

Top opposition commander killed as battle for Deraa rages

0

Residents run from a fire at a gasoline and oil shop in Aleppo on Sunday. Witnesses said the fire was caused by a bullet fired by a sniper loyal to Syrian President al-Assad at the Karaj al-Hajez crossing. (Photo: Haleem Al-Halabi, Reuters)

21 October 2013 /REUTERS, AP, AMMAN

One of the most senior commanders of the opposition Free Syrian Army was killed on Monday during clashes with government troops near the southern city of Deraa on the border with Jordan, insurgents and state media said.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-329402-top-opposition-commander-killed-as-battle-for-deraa-rages.html?

[SinglePot]

Looks like the US is well off staying clear of this mess.

[Chicog]

Syrian rockets hit eastern Lebanon

[ 22 October 2013 06:10 ]

Baku-APA. Four rockets fired from Syria landed in various parts of eastern Lebanon on Monday afternoon, without reporting any casualties, APA reports quoting Xinhua.

A Lebanese security source told Xinhua that the rockets landed in populated areas of Hermel town in the Bekaa valley, mainly populated by Shiite residents.

http://en.apa.az/news/201485?

Warplanes strike Damascus suburb

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Warplanes strike Damascus suburb

BEIRUT/DAMASCUS: Government warplanes launched strikes on areas southeast of Damascus on Monday after rebels seized key regime positions there, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

“Warplanes carried out four air strikes this morning (Monday) on the edges of the town of Mleha,” near army positions the rebels captured at the weekend, the Britain-based monitor said.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1-209475-Warplanes-strike-Damascus-suburb?

Syrian president casts doubt on peace conference

Modified: October 21, 2013 at 4:12 pm • Published: October 21, 2013

BEIRUT (AP) — Syria's president cast doubt Monday on the chances of holding a long-delayed international peace conference to end the country's civil war, saying the factors that would help such talks succeed do not currently exist.

And by that I assume he means the factor that keeps him and his murderous mob in power.

http://newsok.com/syrian-president-casts-doubt-on-peace-conference/article/feed/606749?custom_click=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Newsok%2FNews+%28NewsOK.com+RSS+-+news%29

Edited October 22, 2013 by Chicog

[simple1]

In todays (copy of the other major newspaper) there is an article by Richard Hall from The Independent headed "Syrian peace talks will fail if rebels aren't included". He talks in detail to the various factions & why he believes the talks will not make any progress. He reviews the fighting between the two main extremist groups (ISIS & al-Nusra) who are now controlling some territory, as well as attacking the Kurds and FSA, the inability of the moderates to agree with each other and that the FSA is not making any headway to establish it's military credibility to achieve a political outcome for the Syrian opposition. In addition the fractious Syrian coalition being led by politicians who are self serving and not representing the interests of the people. In other words, in his opinion, a nightmare for all Western parties to the proposed talks. Then mix in Assads refusal to include the armed rebel representatives.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Scott
inappropriate reference

[Mosha]

In todays BKK Post there is an article by Richard Hall from The Independent headed "Syrian peace talks will fail if rebels aren't included". He talks in detail to the various factions & why he believes the talks will not make any progress. He reviews the fighting between the two main extremist groups (ISIS & al-Nusra) who are now controlling some territory, as well as attacking the Kurds and FSA, the inability of the moderates to agree with each other and that the FSA is not making any headway to establish it's military creditablity to acheive a political outcome for the Syrian opposition. In addition the fractious Syrian coaltion being led by politicians who are self serving and not representing the interests of the people. In other words, in his opinion, a nightmare for all Western parties to the proposed talks. Then mix in Assads refusal to include the armed rebel representatives.

,,, and BBC World News is reporting the rebels saying Assad's government should not have a place at the talks.

[simple1]

In todays BKK Post there is an article by Richard Hall from The Independent headed "Syrian peace talks will fail if rebels aren't included". He talks in detail to the various factions & why he believes the talks will not make any progress. He reviews the fighting between the two main extremist groups (ISIS & al-Nusra) who are now controlling some territory, as well as attacking the Kurds and FSA, the inability of the moderates to agree with each other and that the FSA is not making any headway to establish it's military creditablity to acheive a political outcome for the Syrian opposition. In addition the fractious Syrian coaltion being led by politicians who are self serving and not representing the interests of the people. In other words, in his opinion, a nightmare for all Western parties to the proposed talks. Then mix in Assads refusal to include the armed rebel representatives.

,,, and BBC World News is reporting the rebels saying Assad's government should not have a place at the talks.

Correct as well as UK Govt stating they do not support Assad having a future role in Syria. In the meantime Assad is saying he is likely to put himself up for relection in 2014. We all know the reality of free and fair elections in Syria, that kicked off the civil war in the first place.

[LawrenceChee]

In todays BKK Post there is an article by Richard Hall from The Independent headed "Syrian peace talks will fail if rebels aren't included". He talks in detail to the various factions & why he believes the talks will not make any progress. He reviews the fighting between the two main extremist groups (ISIS & al-Nusra) who are now controlling some territory, as well as attacking the Kurds and FSA, the inability of the moderates to agree with each other and that the FSA is not making any headway to establish it's military creditablity to acheive a political outcome for the Syrian opposition. In addition the fractious Syrian coaltion being led by politicians who are self serving and not representing the interests of the people. In other words, in his opinion, a nightmare for all Western parties to the proposed talks. Then mix in Assads refusal to include the armed rebel representatives.

 

,,, and BBC World News is reporting the rebels saying Assad's government should not have a place at the talks.

It's interesting how foreign powers assume they have a right to dictate a country is run.

Wonder if they are ready for the same if it happens to them

When you see Kerry on the news today it's clear they have no idea how to resolve the issue

Sent from my iPod touch using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Chicog]

Clearly the West would like a friendly Sunni in there. Russia are now stuck with Assad, they know whoever likes the West is going to remember what they did.

I can't see how you can resolve this and leave the Alawites in power, the people will want a free and fair election.

They'll probably end up with the same sort of sticky mess you have in Libya.

[Chicog]

Syria: Car Bomb Killed 40, Including 7 Children

The toll from Friday’s car bomb explosion at a mosque in Suq Wadi Barada near Damascus has soared to at least 40, including seven children, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Syrian government and opposition exchanged blame for the carnage in the town.

Suq Wadi Barada is under rebel control and ringed by troops loyal to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

"The toll from a car bomb explosion that detonated after Friday prayers in Suq Wadi Barada has risen to 40, including seven children and a woman," said the Observatory.

http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=815006

Syrian TV says top rebel leader killed

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Syrian state-run TV reported Friday that the leader of a powerful al-Qaida-linked rebel group has been killed — a claim that if confirmed would be a huge blow to fighters trying to topple President Bashar Assad. At least one rebel commander denied the report.

Questions remained over whether Abu Mohammad al-Golani, head of Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, had indeed died. State TV said he was killed in the coastal province of Latakia, but did not say when or give details. Later Friday, it removed the report from its website without explanation.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/world/syrian-tv-says-top-rebel-leader-killed/2149264?

[Chicog]

25 October 2013 Last updated at 12:13 GMT

Syria polio outbreak 'spreads'

Children under age five are at highest risk of contracting polio

At least 22 people - most of them babies and toddlers - are now believed to have contracted polio in Syria, the World Health Organization has reported.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24668437

Edited October 27, 2013 by Chicog

[Chicog]

Watchdog says Syria has filed chemical weapons details and destruction plan

THE HAGUE, Netherlands — The world’s chemical weapons watchdog says Syria has sent it details of its poison gas and nerve agent program and a plan to destroy all facilities linked to the deadly arsenal. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced Sunday that Syria completed its declaration Thursday, as part of a strict timeline that aims to destroy the stockpile by mid-2014.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/watchdog-says-syria-has-filed-chemical-weapons-details-and-destruction-plan/2013/10/27/4e89a8f2-3efa-11e3-b028-de922d7a3f47_story.html?

[Chicog]

Sometimes the Iranians make me laugh at their sheer audacity.

Iranian Deputy FM: West Opposed to Holding Free Election in Syria

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13920806001209

[Chicog]

UN chemical watchdog says says all Syrian production facilities destroyed




Published October 31st, 2013 - 10:48 GMT via SyndiGate.info

All of Syria’s declared chemical arms production equipment has been destroyed ahead of a Saturday deadline, the international chemical weapons watchdog said in a document obtained by Reuters.

“The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is satisfied it has verified, and seen destroyed, all declared critical production/mixing/filling equipment from all 23 sites,” the document said.

OPCW teams had inspected 21 out of 23 chemical weapons sites across the country.

The other two were too dangerous to inspect but the chemical equipment had already been moved to other sites which had been inspected, it said.

The announcement comes one day ahead of the November 1 deadline set by the Hague-based organization for Damascus to destroy or “render inoperable” all chemical weapon production facilities and machinery for mixing chemicals into poison gas and filling munitions.

http://www.albawaba.com/news/syria-chemical-530443?

[Scott]

An off-topic post has been deleted.

[F430murci]

Israeli attack destroys Russian missiles headed from Syria to Hezbollah, US officials say

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/31/21266851-israeli-attack-destroys-russian-missiles-headed-from-syria-to-hezbollah-us-officials-say?lite