Little chance the Thai govt will put off Sunday's election

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Little chance the govt will put off Sunday's election
Kornchanok Raksaseri

BANGKOK: -- The results of talks between the Election Commission (EC) and caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra today are highly anticipated: Will they agree to postpone the election on Sunday or not?

Yingluck has always insisted her government came to office democratically through an election. To the Pheu Thai Party, this election then would warrant its legitimacy. Deferring the election would not guarantee the same problems won't arise again in the future.

The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee secretary-general has insisted all along that postponing the election was not the point - the group wants the Yingluck government to resign and pave the way for national reform first.

The Constitutional Court ruled that the election could be rescheduled, to prevent chaos or a big loss to the country and to make the election free and fair. It also said the rescheduling of the election date should be the joint responsibility of the caretaker PM and the EC chairman.

As the court gave its ruling on Friday, and the EC and Yingluck had not met, it was too late to cancel the advance voting set for Sunday.

In a way, however, this advance voting was a test for the February 2 election.

Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, supervising the Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order, said the advance voting in 66 provinces had been successful.

Caretaker PM's secretary-general Pol Maj-General Thawat Boonfueng said yesterday Yingluck had insisted from the beginning that according to the law, the election could not be postponed. He personally thought the court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice.

Despite early concern about violence and the blockading of voters, Thawat said the advance election on Sunday was carried out well except in only some constituencies. He said he expected no bloodshed on Sunday.

The EC announced last Sunday that advance voting in 83 of 375 constituencies - or about 22 per cent - had been cancelled.

EC secretary-general Puchong Nutrawong said yesterday that among the 548 polling sites for advance voting on Sunday, 111 sites cancelled the voting. Ballot casting at 64 out of 152 polling sites for absentee voting was cancelled.

While 55,243 voters registered for advance voting, 38,093 - or 68.96 per cent - turned up to vote. Also, 113,030 voters out of 2,163,025 voters registered for absentee voting also turned out, he said.

Citing the large number of voting venues, EC member Somchai Srisuthiyakorn expressed concern that with protesters rallying there would not be enough officials to take care of the election on Sunday and the vote should be postponed.

From another angle, on the main election day, a blockade by protesters would be more difficult as, according to Puchong, there are over 100,000 ballot units scattered around the country.

The total number of eligible voters would be as many as 46 million, excluding the two million who registered for absentee or advance voting.

If there is an election, the vote count will take place even if the EC is not able to endorse the vote result. Pheu Thai has high hopes it will win the majority of votes - especially after its rival Democrat Party has boycotted the election. It would claim its legitimacy to hold government - although it might be a caretaker one without a functioning House of Representatives.

Holding on for about five days will not be too long a period for the Pheu Thai Party to push through the election, and the party is likely to decide to push it through as soon as possible.


-- The Nation 2014-01-28

[jackrich]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Edited January 27, 2014 by jackrich

[Siripon]

Yingluck is pinning all her hopes on this election to claim legitimacy.

As mentioned, it will be much harder for the protesters to shut down polling stations as there are so many more compared to last Sunday.

Ironically, all the ex Democrat MPs must vote to ensure their right to run in the next election. So we will have the scenario of ex Democrat MPs going to polling stations to vote in the south that are closed.

By law, they will have to register a complaint they were unable to vote even though they have boycotted the election!

So if Yingluck wins is she really going to embark on a series of reforms and then dissolve Parliament again, notwithstanding the imminent impeachment probe looming over her by the NAAC?

[jdinasia]

The elections on the 2nd are futile. There is no way that it will be able to seat a gov't.

If we look at last Sunday, 22% were shut down leaving 78% open. yet only 22% of those registered actually voted. A clear signal that Surapong was not being factual when he stated that because 66 provinces voted it meant the majority were in favor of the elections.

Already they will be unable to seat the party-list candidates (that is 125 out of 500 that cannot be seated) and w/o 95% there can be no gov't..

[jdinasia]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Was that your opinion in 2010 when the red shirts were using terrorism to push for early elections?

[Siripon]

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

[jdinasia]

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

Additionally in 1 candidate constituencies even IF they pass the 20% rule, they must also pass an additional test. They must beat the "no vote" numbers as well.

[djjamie]

So to get this right the PTP stated they won't acknowledge the CC's ruling saying the "court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice" You could have spelt it out to the PTP and they would have said "We don't understand what your talking about"

​The cherry on the cake however is that the PTP state that irrespective of whether the EC endorse them or not they will claim victory if they get the majority.

So after ignoring a CC ruling and not acknowledging the EC not endorsing them after the vote count they will claim legitimacy.

And this arrogance and lack of respect for the law is BEFORE they have even won the election.

Thank God they are their own worst enemies. NACC will make light work of them and be assured the NACC will follow the rule of law when deciding the fate of the regime leaders.

The Law. The PTP's greatest enemy.

Edited January 28, 2014 by djjamie

[bangkokheat]

just get on with this weekends election so we can go thru the next inevitable stage

[slipperylobster]

The elections on the 2nd are futile. There is no way that it will be able to seat a gov't.

If we look at last Sunday, 22% were shut down leaving 78% open. yet only 22% of those registered actually voted. A clear signal that Surapong was not being factual when he stated that because 66 provinces voted it meant the majority were in favor of the elections.

Already they will be unable to seat the party-list candidates (that is 125 out of 500 that cannot be seated) and w/o 95% there can be no gov't..

...somebody has been doing their homework.

[Emptyset]

So to get this right the PTP stated they won't acknowledge the CC's ruling saying the "court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice" You could have spelt it out to the PTP and they would have said "We don't understand what your talking about"

​The cherry on the cake however is that the PTP state that irrespective of whether the EC endorse them or not they will claim victory if they get the majority.

So after ignoring a CC ruling and not acknowledging the EC not endorsing them after the vote count they will claim legitimacy.

And this arrogance and lack of respect for the law is BEFORE they have even won the election.

Thank God they are their own worst enemies. NACC will make light work of them and be assured the NACC will follow the rule of law when deciding the fate of the regime leaders.

The Law. The PTP's greatest enemy.

Have you read the CC's ruling? Unsuprisingly if you're familiar with some of their other recent rulings, it has no constitutional basis. They cite the precedent of 2006, yet anyone familiar with that period would know it was completely different. Election was annulled, not postponed. According to the actual law, the election must be held. However, the court ruled that PT should discuss with the EC, not that they have to postpone. And they are going to discuss it. Yet there's very little point in cancelling the election if the opposition refuses to negotiate. The only thing to do is press on and hope for the best - which seems to be exactly what the govt is going to do.

See this for more detail: http://asiancorrespondent.com/118896/commentary-and-analysis-of-the-court-decision-allowing-for-postponement-of-the-election/

[Costas2008]

Everybody keeps blubbering about elections in the name of Democracy.

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

So they can pass any law to suit their own interests and their own pockets?

Don’t give me the excuse that they act for the good of this country.

They never did, not only the last 2.5 years with Yingluck but well before with her brother in charge.

I’m also amazed with the foreign powers supporting elections in Thailand.

Their people would have never allowed this charade to take place in their own country.

Posters, call Sutherp, undemocratic leading a mob of hooligans.

At least the man was brave enough to stand against the ignorance and arrogance of this government.

May be it would be much better for the foreign powers and us foreigners living in Thailand to keep quiet and wish the Thai people a better Democratic future.

[h90]

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

Additionally in 1 candidate constituencies even IF they pass the 20% rule, they must also pass an additional test. They must beat the "no vote" numbers as well.

As crazy as it sounds, the PTP had already a few ideas:

1 ) fill up the missing MPs with party list MPs. No joke, one of the PTP MPs told so. Which would brake a couple of laws and the constitution, and seems even for the PTP too crazy. But who knows.

2 ) by elections. By concentrating a large police force on just a few places they may get it step by step. Sure braking a few laws but not as big as 1 ).

3 ) Which was often discussed....have a complete chaos on the election day and stage a kind of coup themself.

[Fat Haggis]

The cynic in me is thinking that Suthep is counting on the elections going ahead, and counting on violence erupting so much that the military wil have no choice in having to step in, and he gets his coup that makes the whole day null and void.

[Thait Spot]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

The government will certainly not cancel elections. That would mark the death of democracy. I bet they considered it though.

What they will do is to postpone them because they are doomed otherwise.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Emptyset]

Getting enough MPs to open parliament will be a nightmare. Not only do 28 constituencies have no candidate, another 21 only have one, and that candidate must get 20% of the total electorate in the area to win, not just 20% of those who voted that day.

It may well be hard to find enough officials to run the polling stations in the south- by law they must come from that area.

Advance voting- what happens to all the voters who couldn't vote on Sunday? By law their votes cannot be included, the polling station will have to apply for 'an exception' and run the poll another day if the EC agree.

It's a tangled mess already, I can't see parliament opening easily and by then Yingluck could well be facing impeachment.

Additionally in 1 candidate constituencies even IF they pass the 20% rule, they must also pass an additional test. They must beat the "no vote" numbers as well.

As crazy as it sounds, the PTP had already a few ideas:

1 ) fill up the missing MPs with party list MPs. No joke, one of the PTP MPs told so. Which would brake a couple of laws and the constitution, and seems even for the PTP too crazy. But who knows.

2 ) by elections. By concentrating a large police force on just a few places they may get it step by step. Sure braking a few laws but not as big as 1 ).

3 ) Which was often discussed....have a complete chaos on the election day and stage a kind of coup themself.

1) is impossible. As jdinasia says, the EC won't even be able to declare party list votes until all constituencies are in.

2) won't break any laws - by-elections must be held until seats are filled according to the constitution. That's what will happen.

3) is just complete fantasy. I heard a rumour that Thaksin wanted police to stage a coup and install Arsa Sarasin as PM. Even if such wild thoughts were on his mind, it isn't going to happen.

[blackman]

the only thing that matters to the government is that they cling to power for the next 180 days to allow the amnesty bill to pass into law

thaksin will then be wiped clean, he can return to thailand and politics and be PM again

as a convicted criminal he cannot

nothing else matters to him

[ginjag]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Ha Ha the P.M wants to get in so she can cover up the rice scandal. the NACC will need 1-2 months to get answers. she knows this.

This is our only chance to get back in, if it's delayed the probes being made Issan people will start to smell a rat and we can't have that. We have to hope the banks will lend us 130 billion so we can pay the farmer money we should have paid them 5 months ago. Were skint, please help.

[noitom]

just get on with this weekends election so we can go thru the next inevitable stage

Remember in Gangs of New York when the tamany hall leader and mayor told Bill Cutting - "It's not the voters who count it's the vote counters."

[scorecard]

Everybody keeps blubbering about elections in the name of Democracy.

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

So they can pass any law to suit their own interests and their own pockets?

Don’t give me the excuse that they act for the good of this country.

They never did, not only the last 2.5 years with Yingluck but well before with her brother in charge.

I’m also amazed with the foreign powers supporting elections in Thailand.

Their people would have never allowed this charade to take place in their own country.

Posters, call Sutherp, undemocratic leading a mob of hooligans.

At least the man was brave enough to stand against the ignorance and arrogance of this government.

May be it would be much better for the foreign powers and us foreigners living in Thailand to keep quiet and wish the Thai people a better Democratic future.

Well it's a democracy where the government / caretaker government blacklists / threatens / intimidates / calls in company owners & celebrities, film stars etc., to explain themselves why they have supported a legitimate protest group. And threaten to freeze their assets.

Dictatorship approach, nothing more nothing less.

[Crushdepth]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Think about it dear it would give the government a chance to pay off the farmers before they have to vote.

I would not be surprised if they go for it.

[Jasun]

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

Singapore.

[jeanpierre]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Was that your opinion in 2010 when the red shirts were using terrorism to push for early elections?

the same as now by the yellow shirts

[brewsterbudgen]

Everybody keeps blubbering about elections in the name of Democracy.

What kind of Democracy is that, when only one party is competing and will be elected without any opposition?

What is the good of a totalitarian government like that?

So they can pass any law to suit their own interests and their own pockets?

Don’t give me the excuse that they act for the good of this country.

They never did, not only the last 2.5 years with Yingluck but well before with her brother in charge.

I’m also amazed with the foreign powers supporting elections in Thailand.

Their people would have never allowed this charade to take place in their own country.

Posters, call Sutherp, undemocratic leading a mob of hooligans.

At least the man was brave enough to stand against the ignorance and arrogance of this government.

May be it would be much better for the foreign powers and us foreigners living in Thailand to keep quiet and wish the Thai people a better Democratic future.

I understand that are around 30 parties competing.

perhaps you might want to take cognisance of your final point yourself if you feel so strongly!

[djjamie]

So to get this right the PTP stated they won't acknowledge the CC's ruling saying the "court's ruling was not clear and therefore could not be applied in practice" You could have spelt it out to the PTP and they would have said "We don't understand what your talking about"

​The cherry on the cake however is that the PTP state that irrespective of whether the EC endorse them or not they will claim victory if they get the majority.

So after ignoring a CC ruling and not acknowledging the EC not endorsing them after the vote count they will claim legitimacy.

And this arrogance and lack of respect for the law is BEFORE they have even won the election.

Thank God they are their own worst enemies. NACC will make light work of them and be assured the NACC will follow the rule of law when deciding the fate of the regime leaders.

The Law. The PTP's greatest enemy.

Have you read the CC's ruling? Unsuprisingly if you're familiar with some of their other recent rulings, it has no constitutional basis. They cite the precedent of 2006, yet anyone familiar with that period would know it was completely different. Election was annulled, not postponed. According to the actual law, the election must be held. However, the court ruled that PT should discuss with the EC, not that they have to postpone. And they are going to discuss it. Yet there's very little point in cancelling the election if the opposition refuses to negotiate. The only thing to do is press on and hope for the best - which seems to be exactly what the govt is going to do.

See this for more detail: http://asiancorrespondent.com/118896/commentary-and-analysis-of-the-court-decision-allowing-for-postponement-of-the-election/

The PTP need to speak to the EC who have told them more than once that free and fair elections cannot be held on the 2nd which according to the constitution under those circumstances can be delayed.

If Yingluck had spoken to the EC on Saturday (one day after the CC ruling) the tragic death on Sunday could have been avoided. Instead she has dragged her feet. She can't even face the nation with words of advice or calming words of encouragement or a statement regarding the CC ruling. Guys like you have to read it on the voice of Thaksin (Asian correspondent) I feel sorry that you have to go to web sites to get information that Yingluck should be telling the nation.

The advance voting last Sunday was a litmus test of things to come and be assured the constitution makes it very clear that it can be postponed under those circumstances.

Or is there a conspiracy by the EC against the PTP as there was by the World bank, Moody's, UNHCR, Human Rights Watch, the environmentalists, the corn farmer, the rubber farmers, academics, global economists the IMF and now the rice farmers.

[ginjag]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

Was that your opinion in 2010 when the red shirts were using terrorism to push for early elections?

the same as now by the yellow shirts

Whats this B/S about yellow shirts is that the only protest group you know of ??? get out more my friend, ask around, you will find pink-blue-white-and many other coloured shirts among the protest.

Think you have the idea from the minority of posters, who think the majority have got it all wrong.

[Jack Mountain]

the only thing that matters to the government is that they cling to power for the next 180 days to allow the amnesty bill to pass into law

thaksin will then be wiped clean, he can return to thailand and politics and be PM again

as a convicted criminal he cannot

nothing else matters to him

Are you sure he has the guts to come back to Thailand? Could be his last stupid decision ...

[LevelHead]

The elections on the 2nd are futile. There is no way that it will be able to seat a gov't.

If we look at last Sunday, 22% were shut down leaving 78% open. yet only 22% of those registered actually voted. A clear signal that Surapong was not being factual when he stated that because 66 provinces voted it meant the majority were in favor of the elections.

Already they will be unable to seat the party-list candidates (that is 125 out of 500 that cannot be seated) and w/o 95% there can be no gov't..

Why do you not also say.

The Thai Constitution says that the caretaker government will remain the caretaker government until the new parliament is formed.

The EC has to keep running by-elections in any seat where the vote was unsuccessful, and keep doing it over and over again until someone is elected in that area.

After the initial vote the 20% requirement does not matter, so in the end 1 vote for 1 person is enough to win them the seat in by elections if they are held over and over.

So the election PROCESS which has commenced and will further move along on Feb 2nd IS NOT FUTILE and will, eventually, leads to 95% of seats filled through by-elections.

That is the LAW, that is the CONSTITUTION. Elections must proceed unless there is a National Emergency as defined in the written Thai Constitution.

All in my opinion of course.

[NCFC]

Quote "While 55,243 voters registered for advance voting, 38,093 - or 68.96 per cent - turned up to vote. "

Which is a surprisingly high turnout considering that those 55,243 voters knew they could be subjected to harassment, intimidation and violence from a mob hell-bent on preventing them from voting. That percentage is not much different from general election turnout in the UK.

[hawker9000]

The government is absolutely right not to cancel the elections.

You can't give in to bullies and thugs. Law and order will fall if you do.

D&mn the freedom to assemble & free speech!! Full speed ahead!!!

Go ahead with the election and just watch what happens. 'A decision rivaled in political tunnel-vision only by the Amnesty Bill that started it all. If you think THIS government's self-imposed loss of legitimacy was impressive, the lack of it subsequent to this coming unopposed election will leave you positively slack-jawed. Now Thaksinistas are quite fond of comparing Suthep's initiative to North Korea. Well, there, THOSE elections are unopposed as well. JUST LIKE what PTP, not Suthep, insists must be allowed to happen in Thailand on 2 Feb! Hopefully, somebody with say-so will get a clue between now & then. It's a political black hole that's going to suck the military right in, against its own will & better judgment.

If Thailand can't find a way to put Thaksin and his bloodlust to rule behind it, this is all just going to go on & on & on. The PTP cult-following hasn't helped, and isn't helping.