Thai private sector signals SOS, warning local economy may crash

[webfact]

Thai private sector signals SOS, warning local economy may crash
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, March 28 – Thailand's private sector today called for the formation of a permanent government as soon as possible, or the country will be overtaken by neighbouring countries.

Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) and Board of Trade of Thailand (BOT), said a general election and a new government will speed public spending and stimulate the economy which has been stagnant for the past several months.

He expressed hope that the new government should take office in the third quarter to push for economic growth at 2.5-3 per cent, or the growth will be less than 2.5 per cent if formation of a new administration takes longer.

He said exports and tourism are two driving elements for the Thai economy while border trade also generates income for the country.

The political stalemate should end as soon as possible and negotiations should concentrate on the future of Thailand, he said, calling for the appointment of an interim prime minister to run the country in parallel with national reform which should take about a year.

He said the political turmoil and absence of a permanent government to issue investment-attracting policy has diminished Thailand’s opportunity and foreign companies are relocating their manufacturing base from Thailand to neighbouring countries such as Indonesia.

The Indonesian government has attracted foreign investors with an investment of over Bt17 trillion for infrastructure development – seven times more than Thailand’s earlier project which has been suspended, he said.

Thailand is lacking sufficient skilled labour and the government lacks transparency in its administration, while other Southeast Asian countries are speeding up development to take advantage of investment opportunities in place of Thailand, he said.

Mr Isara said he received the latest report about the relocation of Japanese manufacturers of electronics products and automobiles from Thailand to Indonesia, partly thanks to the neighbouring country’s large population and market.

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, TCC deputy secretary general, called on the government to step down to pave the way for negotiations which should lead to national reform within three months.

After that, Parliament should restart to materialise significant issues into legislation, he said, adding that he doubted if the political crisis will end this year.

If Thailand has a new government early next year, the economy and investment will spring back in the third quarter of next year, he said.

He said Thailand’s economic future is rather bleak as the caretaker government cannot initiate new investment and the private sector will neither jump into new investment.

Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment now that the Board of Investment cannot fully operate, he said.

Thailand’s exports this year will expand less than 5 per cent since the economies of trading countries have yet to pick up and the risk from a political encounter among Russia, the US and Europe remains, he said.

The Thai baht has weakened but manufacturing costs are high, he said. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-03-28

[bigbamboo]

Well there's something we didn't know.

[Nickymaster]

I don't believe. Let's wait for Kitikat to to give us some honest info.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Nickymaster

[Thai at Heart]

Abandon hope all ye who enter here. This bunch are fighting over the spoils of the economy whilst the economy is being primed for a massive fall. I am watching the construction companies. Their outlook must be really bleak.

Has there ever been quite such a dismal report? The economy is still growing at least.

[bulekee]

Good,they need a good kick up the a**.Remember Thida wanted all farangs out of the country and as someone pointed out at the time that includes companies.Give her what she wants then Thailand will once again be number 1 as a rice exporting country because that is all they would have left.

[ChrisY1]

I also don't believe too much that these people say...one day it's gloom and doom....next week it's record numbers...

As a post above mentioned..Kittirat will sort it all out no doubt.....a good man he is )

[djhotsox]

Will the last one out please turn off the lights?!

[bulekee]

Will the last one out please turn off the lights?!

Pay the bin first!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PatOngo]

"or the country will be overtaken by neighbouring countries".

Will be ?????

[Gunna]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

[Basil B]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

They have lost Bt500 billion, just think how much better off Thailand would be if foreign investors could actually invest in Thailand with confidence, instead of always having to think about their exit strategy.

[GoodThaiGirl]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

once that investment money has gone it will never come back after firms see the other choices on offer look around you..its happening whether suphep or yingluk are talking or not,people have had enough of my country,and to be honest i cant blame them..

[marcusd]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

They have lost Bt500 billion, just think how much better off Thailand would be if foreign investors could actually invest in Thailand with confidence, instead of always having to think about their exit strategy.

well said!

I want to invest here but this place is such a joke. I am Australian and we have a free trade agreement I want to,operate under but the morons here just ignore it.

I am seriously thinking of moving to Cambodia or Indonesia.

Marcusd. Via tapatalk

[Basil B]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

once that investment money has gone it will never come back after firms see the other choices on offer look around you..its happening whether suphep or yingluk are talking or not,people have had enough of my country,and to be honest i cant blame them..

I am sorry you feel the need to write of your country like that, Thailand had the opportunity to to be a great country second only to Japan in Asia, but with all the infighting, squabbling, corruption and lawlessness who in their right mind would invest in Thailand?

I think the current problems are just the tip of the iceberg and Thailand will have to change a lot to regain investor confidence but until Thailand has politicians who are actually working for the people and not themselves, Thailand is not going anywhere but down.

[rreddin]

"Thailand has lost about Bt500 billion a year from foreign investment"

which is still less than what the Rice Scam has cost.

At least the investment money could still come back to Thailand as much of it is just put on hold until the Shins are removed or all flee to Dubai where as the Rice Scam money is all gone and the new Government will have to borrow the money to pay the balance owed to the rice farmers

once that investment money has gone it will never come back after firms see the other choices on offer look around you..its happening whether suphep or yingluk are talking or not,people have had enough of my country,and to be honest i cant blame them..

I am sorry you feel the need to write of your country like that, Thailand had the opportunity to to be a great country second only to Japan in Asia, but with all the infighting, squabbling, corruption and lawlessness who in their right mind would invest in Thailand?

I think the current problems are just the tip of the iceberg and Thailand will have to change a lot to regain investor confidence but until Thailand has politicians who are actually working for the people and not themselves, Thailand is not going anywhere but down.

You mention only a part of the problem.

The real problem, identified by foreign academics (I believe they were American) in the 1960's - yes that is 50 or more years ago, is the Thai value system which is at heart of the problem. Until Thais change their value system under which power and patronage (at all levels and not just in politics) in exchange for money is accepted as long as both parties benefit, there will be no improvement in the country.

Suthep, his followers and farang cheerleaders are deluded if they think they will change that with an appointed council to run the country - not in 50 years! It will be just different snouts in the trough. To quote Pete Townsend: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Unfortunately, the Thais will be fooled again!

[mijan24]

"or the country will be overtaken by neighbouring countries".

Will be ?????

This is interesting when you consider:

Thailand is lacking sufficient skilled labour and the government lacks transparency in its administration, while other Southeast Asian countries are speeding up development to take advantage of investment opportunities in place of Thailand, he said.

Ignore the "skilled" and insert "willing" there is obviously plenty of work here but "Thais" are not willing to perform many of these tasks - if you doubt this then ask yourself - why does Thailand have so many people from neighbouring countries come here to work. THIS IS OF COURSE A BURNING QUESTION - THEY (tHAILAND)- are willing in fact need workers for what they (the Thais) see as menial tasks but are very reluctant to have skilled professionals work here unless they go through a seies of hoops.

There are many expats living here who would willingly assist (note assist)in developing communication and critcal thinkinking skills - but "NO" as this may erode the blind following the blind that is so prolific and is of course assisting in the downgrading of Thailand as a nation.

[spidermike007]

Thailand was already at risk of being overtaken by neighboring countries. Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia observe the law, and it is easier for companies to defend themselves there, as they do not have monkey courts controlled by weak and ineffective judges, as they do here. Also, the immigration laws are more clear, and the policies relating to foreign investment are easier to deal with, from what I hear. In addition they are spending billions improving their infrastructures, while Thailand lags behind, being on of several countries in the world that has not advanced into 4G in a meaningful way. The issues here are countless. Even if this recent political nightmare had not happened, Thailand would still be losing its way. You can only do so many things wrong, before it catches up with you. The lack of law enforcement, an ineffective judiciary, political instability, poor road safety, lack of a vision toward the future, very poor education, no effort to learn english, etc, etc.

[useronthenet]

Thailand is in serious trouble, furthermore Europe from next year will lift concessions given to Thai imports, unless a free trade agreement is somehow forged. However from what I have seen on FTA's in Thailand, somehow they manage to break all the rules, and i wonder why such countries like Australia do not re-examine this arrangement as it seems to be only one way.Therefore the EU will only cooperate if this arrangement is reciprocal. The days where Thailand can carry on like business as usual are numbered. The financial crisis will be greater than 1997 if Thailand continues on this path of destruction. At some point the piper has to be paid, and Thais are borrowing like yesterday. If they fail to honor their debt, Thailand and it's financial institutions will come crashing down. It's not if it will happen, but when !!!

[ppmacready]

''These are my principles,if you don't like them I have others"
Groucho

[upena]

Don't worry. TAT's upcoming BFF campaign will save the country.

[Valentine]

Thailand was already at risk of being overtaken by neighboring countries. Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia observe the law, and it is easier for companies to defend themselves there, as they do not have monkey courts controlled by weak and ineffective judges, as they do here. Also, the immigration laws are more clear, and the policies relating to foreign investment are easier to deal with, from what I hear. In addition they are spending billions improving their infrastructures, while Thailand lags behind, being on of several countries in the world that has not advanced into 4G in a meaningful way. The issues here are countless. Even if this recent political nightmare had not happened, Thailand would still be losing its way. You can only do so many things wrong, before it catches up with you. The lack of law enforcement, an ineffective judiciary, political instability, poor road safety, lack of a vision toward the future, very poor education, no effort to learn english, etc, etc.

Your last sentence sums it up quite well. Last year was when Thailand got any meaningful 3G, one of the last country's in the world to do so & all because of incessant squabbling over the pie. The airport, skytrain etc were on the drawing board for decades before they finally went ahead. Indonesia with over 200 million people is rapidly developing & all the other ASEAN countries are moving ahead in a positive way. The way it is going Thailand will have to be dragged kicking & screaming into the more open ASEAN due next year yet they have had years to prepare for it. I can just imagine all the bleating & crying which will go on.

[tilac2]

Well, in the long list of who's to blame for this nightmare I know who I'd put top of the list: the ghastly little fascist Suthep and his old-Etonite companion, Abhisit. This pair are ruining the country just because of their obsessional hatred of Thaksin.

There's a very simple solution to Thailand's political problems: you just let the voters decide. It's called democracy. The people vote, their representatives hold power, sometimes (often) they will make mistakes, the people vote again and change their choice this time, and maybe the new lot will do a better job. No intervention by the Army or the ammart or the monarch. The people decide. Geddit?

We've tried this in Europe, the Americas, Australasia and other places and it seems to work quite well.

Oh yes, and an important part of this process would be to see this horrible little man Suthep thrown into prison for a long time.

[allan michaud]

I think foreign investors are more concerned by general incompetence, how many huge companies that invested in factories here have been considering moving because of the flood debacle and the fact that there has been no real changes made to cope with the next flood. If I was looking to set up a business in SE Asia it would certainly not be in Thailand, too much instability, too much incompetence at the highest levels and way, way, way too much corruption. Corruption is only tolerated when there are clear benefits, here the corrupt are so incompetent they care only abut their pockets and give nothing in the way of incentives to those foreign investors they want to rip off.

The country is run by a bunch of Muppets. In fact I am pretty sure Kermit and Miss Piggy could do a better job than the likes of Mr Propeller Head, Kitikat and the Drunk Police Captain.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed.

[tilac2]

I think foreign investors are more concerned by general incompetence, how many huge companies that invested in factories here have been considering moving because of the flood debacle and the fact that there has been no real changes made to cope with the next flood. If I was looking to set up a business in SE Asia it would certainly not be in Thailand, too much instability, too much incompetence at the highest levels and way, way, way too much corruption. Corruption is only tolerated when there are clear benefits, here the corrupt are so incompetent they care only abut their pockets and give nothing in the way of incentives to those foreign investors they want to rip off.

The country is run by a bunch of Muppets. In fact I am pretty sure Kermit and Miss Piggy could do a better job than the likes of Mr Propeller Head, Kitikat and the Drunk Police Captain.

I tend to agree with you. Sure I think that Suthep and Abhisit are part of the 'acute disease' but, as you say, there is also a chronic illness that runs through this society of Thailand. No-one is taught to think critically, and instead they are taught (even at university level) to defer to their 'superiors'. This system of 'values' applies, as you say, to the current incumbents, as well as to previous ones.

It goes all the way up. In some respects it reminds me of the Philippines where, on the individual level you have people of astonishing talent and dedication, whereas on the political level you have scumbags up to the level of Marcos (perhaps the biggest thief in the history of the world).

An immediate solution for Thailand that some people have proposed is to have a 'technocrat' government, consisting of the many talented business people here. The trouble is that that would not be accepted - and rightly so - by the red faction who believe that the people should decide.

I wonder if the only solution here will be war? History tells us that wars can help decide matters quite well. In the USA and the UK and France the civil wars and revolution helped to put the aristocracy back into their cages. In 20th century Europe, World War 2 destroyed fascism: Germany was bombed back to the stone age and the incomplete victory of World War One was made complete.

But Thailand has never been colonised and reorganised by a foreign power and so has never had its old 'sakdina' system challenged; so the ammart here have managed to keep alive their quasi-feudal system where the 'lower orders' are deemed to be intrinsically lesser beings. Even today, according to the racist system of thought prevalent among the Thai middle class, these 'lesser beings' do not deserve to have the vote.

This system needs to be utterly destroyed if Thailand (or Siam as we progressives call it) is to advance into the modern world. Perhaps a swift war, where the working people triumph and the ammart are forced into submission or exile, would do the job? I don't know. That is up to the Thai people.

[Thai at Heart]

I think foreign investors are more concerned by general incompetence, how many huge companies that invested in factories here have been considering moving because of the flood debacle and the fact that there has been no real changes made to cope with the next flood. If I was looking to set up a business in SE Asia it would certainly not be in Thailand, too much instability, too much incompetence at the highest levels and way, way, way too much corruption. Corruption is only tolerated when there are clear benefits, here the corrupt are so incompetent they care only abut their pockets and give nothing in the way of incentives to those foreign investors they want to rip off.

The country is run by a bunch of Muppets. In fact I am pretty sure Kermit and Miss Piggy could do a better job than the likes of Mr Propeller Head, Kitikat and the Drunk Police Captain.

I tend to agree with you. Sure I think that Suthep and Abhisit are part of the 'acute disease' but, as you say, there is also a chronic illness that runs through this society of Thailand. No-one is taught to think critically, and instead they are taught (even at university level) to defer to their 'superiors'. This system of 'values' applies, as you say, to the current incumbents, as well as to previous ones.

It goes all the way up. In some respects it reminds me of the Philippines where, on the individual level you have people of astonishing talent and dedication, whereas on the political level you have scumbags up to the level of Marcos (perhaps the biggest thief in the history of the world).

An immediate solution for Thailand that some people have proposed is to have a 'technocrat' government, consisting of the many talented business people here. The trouble is that that would not be accepted - and rightly so - by the red faction who believe that the people should decide.

I wonder if the only solution here will be war? History tells us that wars can help decide matters quite well. In the USA and the UK and France the civil wars and revolution helped to put the aristocracy back into their cages. In 20th century Europe, World War 2 destroyed fascism: Germany was bombed back to the stone age and the incomplete victory of World War One was made complete.

But Thailand has never been colonised and reorganised by a foreign power and so has never had its old 'sakdina' system challenged; so the ammart here have managed to keep alive their quasi-feudal system where the 'lower orders' are deemed to be intrinsically lesser beings. Even today, according to the racist system of thought prevalent among the Thai middle class, these 'lesser beings' do not deserve to have the vote.

This system needs to be utterly destroyed if Thailand (or Siam as we progressives call it) is to advance into the modern world. Perhaps a swift war, where the working people triumph and the ammart are forced into submission or exile, would do the job? I don't know. That is up to the Thai people.

Nicely put. But a fairly dismal outlook isn't it. Civil war is the best way out. You might be in right.

[BlackJack]

I like the sound of "The Indonesian government has attracted foreign investors with an investment of over Bt17 trillion for infrastructure development"

I have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Thailand 2 trillion infrastructure fund to start so that I could jump back into the markets however I am now leaning towards Indonesia - given these numbers.

[Benmart]

I read that Thailand was being refered to as the "Sick man" of SE. Asia.

It is more like a spoiled child who is seldom reprimanded, is ungrateful, believes in ghosts and blames others for everything bad that happens.

This child is long overdue for a time-out in the corner. While there, the more mature kids of SE Asia will be eating not only their own candy, but that of their immature and irresponsible neighbor.