Despite downgrades and protests, equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

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Despite downgrades and protests, equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further
WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- THAILAND'S stock index could |rise further even though the country's sovereign credit outlook was downgraded last week by a Japanese agency as the political crisis persists, according to veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius.

Mobius, executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, remains optimistic about Thailand's economy and its stock market although the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR), citing prolonged political unrest, downgraded the country's credit outlook to "negative" last Thursday.

"The political crisis is rather |isolated and will not much affect |the main market processes themselves," he said from Hong Kong during a phone interview to TV NOW 26 channel recorded on Friday.

"In fact, we see signs of recovery right now, and there is a good chance [of the] market doing well going forward."

Mobius oversees assets management worth about US$50 billion (Bt1.6 trillion) in emerging markets ranging from Thailand to South Africa.

Referring to the street protests that have taken place in Bangkok since late last year, he said political debate would continue but business would continue as well.

The baht has weakened from the 2012 exchange rate of below 30 per US dollar to about 32 now. This would be beneficial for Thai exports, which would contribute to the whole economy, he said.

Asked about the possibility of other rating agencies such as Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings following JCR's move, he said the combination of a weak baht and market discounts would support Stock Exchange of Thailand. "Of course, there is a problem along the way, but I think it's temporary, not lasting."

Asked why he is so optimistic about the Thailand economy and |the SET, he said: "It is mainly because [of the] entrepreneurial spirit of Thai businesspeople and very good ethics of Thai workers." Thais were diligent and hard-working, qualities that attract foreign investment.

"So if Thailand continues to be a nice place to invest, we like to invest in Thailand [for those reasons," he said.

The general environment of Thailand was also conducive to business, he added.

While some analysts prefer investment in the Philippines and Indonesia stock markets over Thailand because of the prolonged political crisis here, Mobius said he wanted to include Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand as among the best places for investment. |And don't forget China and India, since they are very important, he argued.

Asked about the recent sharp increase in investment abroad |by Thais, Mobius said it was a |natural process for investors around the world to diversify. It should not present a major problem.

He dismissed the possibility |of sharp capital outflows from emerging markets when the US Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate in the future from 0.25 per cent currently.

He said that in the long run the US rate would rise to curb inflationary pressure, but capital outflows from emerging markets would not be a worrying issue.

He believes that as emerging markets have a faster economic-growth rate, eventually investors will come back as they realise where the growth is.

He expects rising interest rates may lead to a surge in investment in emerging markets in a quest for better returns.

Nor does he worry about the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

"In the short term there is un-|certainty, but if you look at the behaviour of the actual market, you would notice that the market has not really been affected that much," he said.

Even the Russian market has |not been greatly affected, Mobius said.

"At the end of the day we' re |looking at the stock prices. Stock prices in Russia went down [initially] but now you see a little bit of recovery."

Russia and Europe would come to an agreement on how to handle that situation, Mobius said with optimism.

His investments in Africa |also yield high returns because of fast-growing African markets, he said. And he believed this fast growth in Africa would con-tinue.

Economic slowdown in China was not much of a concern for Mobius.

"As China goes through reforms, in the long run it will be positive for the country. In the short run people will hear a lot about bankruptcies, etc," he said.


-- The Nation 2014-04-08

[IMA_FARANG]

Yeah sure.

Do you know what a Mobius strip is ?

It's a loop with a special half twist in it.

You can start at one end and trace around it, never leaving the apparent surface .... but it just leads you back to the start.

Because of the twist the apparent two sided loop has only one side.... so it is an illusion that appears to be taking you somewhere but actually just leads you around and around in an endless loop .... back to where you started with no real "going" anywhere.

A good example of the SET .... o.k. so that's only my opinion.

I think the SET and in fact all "equities" are like that Mobius loop .... going round with illusionary progress and actually taking you nowhere but back again where you started from.

But never mind, just enjoy the illusion of progress.

[DrTuner]

Even if they nuke the whole country to the bottom of the sea, the SET will skyrocket. It's completely separated from reality, a speculators delight.

[Ulic]

As with every prediction of the stock market going up or down they are always correct, The question is the timing.

Will it go down first before rising or will it rise before falling. The markets are always going up and down. As for

ratings agencies what do they know. They seem to rate many companies as triple "A" and the companies are

in bankruptcy protection 18 months later. Make your own decisions on what you read and don't invest in anything

you don't fully understand.

[SheungWan]

Mark's comments are OK.

[Pib]

Awesome fortune telling by Mobius...yes the SET "could" rise...or it could fall. I also believe it will rise...I just don't know if it will rise for one day, say just for tomorrow and then go down again....or maybe another few years (or more) to rise significantly...but it will rise. Also note Mobius gave no timeframe for this prediction, which gives him an out if the SET goes down, but it will ultimately rise which will make him right. We can all make such predictions.

[Asiantravel]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be “ a nice place to invest “ .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

[CaptainPeacock]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

Edited April 8, 2014 by CaptainPeacock

[Asiantravel]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

Yes indeed

" pump and dump " comes to mind

[SheungWan]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be “ a nice place to invest “ .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

[Asiantravel]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be “ a nice place to invest “ .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

But this guy also said in 2011

" another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved. There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,”

And nothing has changed since 2011 and now so why would anyone believe this anywhere the bottom..........?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/mobius-says-fresh-financial-crisis-around-corner-amid-volatile-derivatives.html

[SantiSuk]

I suspect that describing Mobius as an emerging markets guru is like describing David Beckham as a football playing maestro - just a tad out of date.

TEMIT has underperformed the global emerging markets equity index significantly over the last 3 years. I should know as I have it in my own portfolio (I know more fool me, but credit where credit's due - it is a bit like IBM where nobody got fired by buying IBM and I hang in in the hope he will ride the wave of the re-emergence of emerging market stocks).

He can pretty much spout what he likes about where he is investing as the Trust is notoriously coy in providing up to date data on geographical spread through the normal equity info channels. That said maybe he is indeed putting his money where his mouth is on this occasion. I just looked at last available data at 31 Dec 13 and by adding up investments where I recognised the company names as Thai I reckon they were at near on 10% of fund in Thailand - well ahead of what you'd expect for a relatively small emerging market and at a level that caught me by surprise (must get round to re-analysing all my positions - have been lazy of late). They go for chunky holdings so 3.6% is in SCB, 2.6% in Kasikorn and 2.2% in Siam Cement.

If you want to invest in a broad spread of global emering market equities, now is probably a good time to get in if you are prepared to wait for the global bounce back to trickle thru - they have been a bit bottomy for the last couple of years as allocations previously invested in such flowed back into the US and other more obvious rebound territories and as cheaply (lo interest) borrowed funds by institutions had to flow back also. Whether TEMIT (that's the UK registered vehicle but you can get pretty much the same allocation form Franklin Templeton in many markets) is the best fund manager in this space remains to be seen. They are big so buy-sell spreads tend to be quite attractively slim for this type of pooled investment. I share my emeging markets stuff accross several vehicles.

TEMIT_en_holdings_report.pdf

[ExpatJ]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be a nice place to invest .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

Agree- a couple of weeks ago i put a chunk of money into a Russian stocks ETF...

[Dogmatix]

I hope he is right. His track record on markets is a bit patchy but he is unbeatable on marketing.

[SheungWan]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be “ a nice place to invest “ .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

But this guy also said in 2011

" another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved. There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,”

And nothing has changed since 2011 and now so why would anyone believe this anywhere the bottom..........?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/mobius-says-fresh-financial-crisis-around-corner-amid-volatile-derivatives.html

There probably will be a new financial crisis somewhere down the line. There always is. I don't think one has to agree anyway with what MM says on every occasion. His comments on Thailand were a case for long-term investment in the Thai market. I think that case is worth consideration. The analysts to discard are the broken-record doomsday predictors. Any day now!

[SheungWan]

Mark's comments are OK.

he says Thailand can be a nice place to invest .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

Agree- a couple of weeks ago i put a chunk of money into a Russian stocks ETF...

Blimey.

[Asiantravel]

he says Thailand can be “ a nice place to invest “ .....mmmm

with the threat of civil war still hanging over it?

The time to invest is when the the future looks bleakest, that is the bottom of the market. Mark will be looking through the current troubles and assuming a reasonable level of continuity whatever civil administration ensues in the short term. Whether you agree or not with his position it is a case to be made. If I was an investor in the SET (which I am not) I would be looking to benefit from volatility re individual stocks I had my eye on.

But this guy also said in 2011

" another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved. There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,”

And nothing has changed since 2011 and now so why would anyone believe this anywhere the bottom..........?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/mobius-says-fresh-financial-crisis-around-corner-amid-volatile-derivatives.html

There probably will be a new financial crisis somewhere down the line. There always is. I don't think one has to agree anyway with what MM says on every occasion. His comments on Thailand were a case for long-term investment in the Thai market. I think that case is worth consideration. The analysts to discard are the broken-record doomsday predictors. Any day now!

But surely you would have to acknowledge the market regained its strength after the last financial crisis mainly because of the vast amounts of quantitative easing injected into the system ? That now seems to be drying up so what economic fundamentals are going to support any meaningful strength in the markets? In USA the consumer is tapped out and I would also think here in Thailand the same because there is high personal debt here ( household debt is at 80% of Thailand’s GDP ).

And another thing is how can an " investment guru " possibly say Thailand is a good place to invest in the long term with such terrible demographics as this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/717890-thailand-becoming-complete-ageing-society-in-7-years/

Edited April 10, 2014 by Asiantravel

[SheungWan]

But surely you would have to acknowledge the market regained its strength after the last financial crisis mainly because of the vast amounts of quantitative easing injected into the system ? That now seems to be drying up so what economic fundamentals are going to support any meaningful strength in the markets? In USA the consumer is tapped out and I would also think here in Thailand the same because there is high personal debt here ( household debt is at 80% of Thailand’s GDP ).

And another thing is how can an " investment guru " possibly say Thailand is a good place to invest in the long term with such terrible demographics as this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/717890-thailand-becoming-complete-ageing-society-in-7-years/

Remember, I am not saying he is right 100% but rather that he has a serious position to be considered. You have pointed out some of the headwinds. On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant plus Japanese auto production. In addition increased trade from Mainland China and Japanese investment on the basis that Thailand isn't China. If investing in stocks then a focus on individual stocks rather than a blanket investment in the SET is one way to go.

[Asiantravel]

But surely you would have to acknowledge the market regained its strength after the last financial crisis mainly because of the vast amounts of quantitative easing injected into the system ? That now seems to be drying up so what economic fundamentals are going to support any meaningful strength in the markets? In USA the consumer is tapped out and I would also think here in Thailand the same because there is high personal debt here ( household debt is at 80% of Thailand’s GDP ).

And another thing is how can an " investment guru " possibly say Thailand is a good place to invest in the long term with such terrible demographics as this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/717890-thailand-becoming-complete-ageing-society-in-7-years/

Remember, I am not saying he is right 100% but rather that he has a serious position to be considered. You have pointed out some of the headwinds. On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant plus Japanese auto production. In addition increased trade from Mainland China and Japanese investment on the basis that Thailand isn't China. If investing in stocks then a focus on individual stocks rather than a blanket investment in the SET is one way to go.

“On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant “

Which is offset by Japanese companies taking their money out of Thailand

http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/here%27s-why-japanese-companies-are-leave-china-and-thailand-271278

[SheungWan]

But surely you would have to acknowledge the market regained its strength after the last financial crisis mainly because of the vast amounts of quantitative easing injected into the system ? That now seems to be drying up so what economic fundamentals are going to support any meaningful strength in the markets? In USA the consumer is tapped out and I would also think here in Thailand the same because there is high personal debt here ( household debt is at 80% of Thailand’s GDP ).

And another thing is how can an " investment guru " possibly say Thailand is a good place to invest in the long term with such terrible demographics as this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/717890-thailand-becoming-complete-ageing-society-in-7-years/

Remember, I am not saying he is right 100% but rather that he has a serious position to be considered. You have pointed out some of the headwinds. On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant plus Japanese auto production. In addition increased trade from Mainland China and Japanese investment on the basis that Thailand isn't China. If investing in stocks then a focus on individual stocks rather than a blanket investment in the SET is one way to go.

“On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant “

Which is offset by Japanese companies taking their money out of Thailand

http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/here%27s-why-japanese-companies-are-leave-china-and-thailand-271278

Read the article a little more carefully. It says that net investment from Japan into Thailand is going down, not that existing investments are being closed. Actually a wise move by Japan to hedge their bets across the ASEAN region given the ongoing political uncertainty in Thailand and the risk of further flooding incidents. So what we have here is one company coming into Thailand and other companies shifting new investments across the region. Got anything else?

[Asiantravel]

But surely you would have to acknowledge the market regained its strength after the last financial crisis mainly because of the vast amounts of quantitative easing injected into the system ? That now seems to be drying up so what economic fundamentals are going to support any meaningful strength in the markets? In USA the consumer is tapped out and I would also think here in Thailand the same because there is high personal debt here ( household debt is at 80% of Thailand’s GDP ).

And another thing is how can an " investment guru " possibly say Thailand is a good place to invest in the long term with such terrible demographics as this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/717890-thailand-becoming-complete-ageing-society-in-7-years/

Remember, I am not saying he is right 100% but rather that he has a serious position to be considered. You have pointed out some of the headwinds. On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant plus Japanese auto production. In addition increased trade from Mainland China and Japanese investment on the basis that Thailand isn't China. If investing in stocks then a focus on individual stocks rather than a blanket investment in the SET is one way to go.

“On the other side I would point out Volkswagen's announcement that they intend to open a manufacturing plant “

Which is offset by Japanese companies taking their money out of Thailand

http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/here%27s-why-japanese-companies-are-leave-china-and-thailand-271278

Read the article a little more carefully. It says that net investment from Japan into Thailand is going down, not that existing investments are being closed. Actually a wise move by Japan to hedge their bets across the ASEAN region given the ongoing political uncertainty in Thailand and the risk of further flooding incidents. So what we have here is one company coming into Thailand and other companies shifting new investments across the region. Got anything else?

You are incorrect Sanyo Semiconductor physically closed down its factory and left.

And I don't think you can get any clearer than this statement

"The Japanese have made noises about reconsidering some of their investment projects and if the political situation, political turmoil is to be prolonged they might even have to relocate to some other destinations in South East Asia," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-13/an-thai-economy-concerns/5318260

Edited April 12, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Naam]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

for the record...

-the "guru" did not shout anything but mentioned "he believes",

-shorting the SET is a piece of cake, only ignorants think it is difficult,

-Mark Moebius has an excellent track record, focussing on Asian economies, and that since more than 30 years,

last not least... some people here have huge big mouths, making wild and unsubstantiated assumptions (e.g. "civil war looms") but nothing to show and nothing worthwhile to read.

p.s. old investor wisdom: too many negative shouts and forecasts indicate a thin wallet.

[SheungWan]

You are incorrect Sanyo Semiconductor physically closed down its factory and left.

And I don't think you can get any clearer than this statement

"The Japanese have made noises about reconsidering some of their investment projects and if the political situation, political turmoil is to be prolonged they might even have to relocate to some other destinations in South East Asia," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-13/an-thai-economy-concerns/5318260

Again your research is sloppy. First, you should note that Sanyo Semiconductor was taken over by On Semiconductor (in 2010-2011) On Semiconductor is headquartered in Phoenix USA.The second piece of information is that the decision to close the Sanyo production facility was taken in 2011 after the takeover so nothing to do with recent events.

The third comment is that according to the article the Japanese have made noises (warnings) about their investments. So where are the Japanese closures related to current events?

Edited April 12, 2014 by SheungWan

[Duff]

Indeed, when everyone is bullish it's time to sell. I'd love to get my hands on a Thai stock market sentiment chart.

Meanwhile, the SET says another story forming a bearish rising wedge near a 52-week upper T/L with a slight RSI bearish divergence and volume drying.

If the SET pierces through the T/L, we could possibly have a new bull market. BUT probabilities are much higher that it'll break out downward on volume.

And if it does, don't believe the "guru" anymore and get out as fast as you can...

Interestingly, the breakout could match with the after Songkran Jatuporn show

[Asiantravel]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

for the record...

-the "guru" did not shout anything but mentioned "he believes",

-shorting the SET is a piece of cake, only ignorants think it is difficult,

-Mark Moebius has an excellent track record, focussing on Asian economies, and that since more than 30 years,

last not least... some people here have huge big mouths, making wild and unsubstantiated assumptions (e.g. "civil war looms") but nothing to show and nothing worthwhile to read.

p.s. old investor wisdom: too many negative shouts and forecasts indicate a thin wallet.

" some people here have huge big mouths, making wild and unsubstantiated assumptions (e.g. "civil war looms") but nothing to show and nothing worthwhile to read. "

It's quite disrespectful of you to talk about General Prayuth Chan-ocha, head of the Thai army in such a fashion

" General Prayuth Chan-ocha said he was deeply concerned by the latest crisis, with divisions not just in Bangkok but across the whole country.

"The situation could trigger a civil war," he told the Bangkok Post."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25475644

[SheungWan]

Both the Japanese, Volkswagen and other large investors look longer term re commitment to production line manufacturing. They will be looking several years ahead and certainly looking through current events to make their decisions. They will not be swayed by this or that announcement or commentary from players in the current Kabuki drama. In a different way, a longer term SET investor will be assessing the current drama primarily to take advantage of any volatility in order to buy in. Buying low and selling high means buying on bad news with the future perceived bleak. Those who are spooked by the markets never understand this and are in any case just hoping in the case of the gold bugs that every bit of bad news will push the darned price up. And in their world Thailand is going to collapse, any time now, just you wait, its inevitable. At least Mark Mobius provides a healthy antidote to this nonsense.

[Naam]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

for the record...

-the "guru" did not shout anything but mentioned "he believes",

-shorting the SET is a piece of cake, only ignorants think it is difficult,

-Mark Moebius has an excellent track record, focussing on Asian economies, and that since more than 30 years,

last not least... some people here have huge big mouths, making wild and unsubstantiated assumptions (e.g. "civil war looms") but nothing to show and nothing worthwhile to read.

p.s. old investor wisdom: too many negative shouts and forecasts indicate a thin wallet.

" some people here have huge big mouths, making wild and unsubstantiated assumptions (e.g. "civil war looms") but nothing to show and nothing worthwhile to read. "

It's quite disrespectful of you to talk about General Prayuth Chan-ocha, head of the Thai army in such a fashion

" General Prayuth Chan-ocha said he was deeply concerned by the latest crisis, with divisions not just in Bangkok but across the whole country.

"The situation could trigger a civil war," he told the Bangkok Post."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25475644

"if i drink to much portwine today it could trigger a headache tomorrow", i told my wife... deeply concerned.

[Asiantravel]

Both the Japanese, Volkswagen and other large investors look longer term re commitment to production line manufacturing. They will be looking several years ahead and certainly looking through current events to make their decisions. They will not be swayed by this or that announcement or commentary from players in the current Kabuki drama. In a different way, a longer term SET investor will be assessing the current drama primarily to take advantage of any volatility in order to buy in. Buying low and selling high means buying on bad news with the future perceived bleak. Those who are spooked by the markets never understand this and are in any case just hoping in the case of the gold bugs that every bit of bad news will push the darned price up. And in their world Thailand is going to collapse, any time now, just you wait, its inevitable. At least Mark Mobius provides a healthy antidote to this nonsense.

So much for your theory that the auto industry will save the day.

Thai auto sector slams on brakes as political crisis rumbles on.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's auto sector, Southeast Asia's biggest, has fired more than 30,000 subcontracted workers this year and slashed production, as sales plunge after months of political unrest that threatens to drive some manufacturers offshore.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-thailand-autos-20140508,0,5150934.story

Edited May 10, 2014 by Asiantravel

[SheungWan]

Both the Japanese, Volkswagen and other large investors look longer term re commitment to production line manufacturing. They will be looking several years ahead and certainly looking through current events to make their decisions. They will not be swayed by this or that announcement or commentary from players in the current Kabuki drama. In a different way, a longer term SET investor will be assessing the current drama primarily to take advantage of any volatility in order to buy in. Buying low and selling high means buying on bad news with the future perceived bleak. Those who are spooked by the markets never understand this and are in any case just hoping in the case of the gold bugs that every bit of bad news will push the darned price up. And in their world Thailand is going to collapse, any time now, just you wait, its inevitable. At least Mark Mobius provides a healthy antidote to this nonsense.

So much for your theory that the auto industry will save the day.

Thai auto sector slams on brakes as political crisis rumbles on.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's auto sector, Southeast Asia's biggest, has fired more than 30,000 subcontracted workers this year and slashed production, as sales plunge after months of political unrest that threatens to drive some manufacturers offshore.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-thailand-autos-20140508,0,5150934.story

You should read the article. The layoffs represent 3% of the total workforce. The rest of the article is full of 'mays' and 'mights'.

Edited May 11, 2014 by SheungWan

[fatdrunkandstupid]

RE: equity guru Mobius believes SET will rise further

When a guru starts shouting this, there is ONLY one thing to do...

AND that's the opposite... SHORT the SET!

BUT wait...

You can't in krung thep

WHY... cos the Taaai-chinks wouldn't want you making easy moohla...

Any comments about the SET (or any other index for that matter) rising or falling are entirely meaningless unless they are pegged to a specific time frame.

Sure the SET will rise.

When?