Calculating the impact of job loses in Phuket

[Bulldozer Dawn]

On my count there has been at least 500 individual businesses now cleared off the beaches of Phuket.

Many of these were small mom and pop concerns but also a good few were also large establishments such as the lotus restaurant.

But to keep things simple I will estimate that taken as a whole each of these businesses created 6 jobs. Two owners or bosses plus 4 staff. In fact the job creation extends much further than this, one has to also think about the ice delivery guys, the booze and food delivery guys...and so on...but to keep things simple we will use the 6 jobs per business figure.

So what is the impact of these job losses? Lets look at the traditional Thai family. At least two kids, and usually supporting at least the mother and father on both sides of the family (of course, as many farangs know the web of financial support back in the village may extend much wider to include grandparents, aunts, uncles and so on)...

And now to some simple math:

500 businesses x 6 jobs x 6 dependants = 18,000 people effected

It is also prudent to note, at this point, that the above calculation does not include the massive job loses in other areas such as black Taxis, Tuk Tuks and minivans. Nor does it include the complete gutting of the in/out visa run businesses.

Given the manifest financial impacts of the job losses in Phuket, it would seem likely that there will be a significant jump in theft and other crimes against the person in the coming months. Perhaps it is also likely that there will be a jump in drug activity, due to displacement, unemployment, boredom and depression.

This trend would also appear to be surfacing on Koh Samui judging from the news reports from that Island in the last few days.

Be careful out there.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

And so it commences:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/753822-thieves-smash-phuket-atm-but-fail-to-get-the-money/

[TacoGuy]

Will they not just relocate their businesses to some other corner? People still need to eat...

Edited August 22, 2014 by TacoGuy

[khunpa]

Yeah, well long-term thinking has never really been used much here. So why start now?

At least the law has finally be enforced. Concerns about unemployment, crime etc. can be thought about later.

Live today and don't worry about tomorrow!

[khunpa]

Will they not just relocate their businesses to some other corner? People still need to eat...

Most likely they will be back in business in one or two months. Only thing changed will be the size of the bride to return and keep running the business.

[belg]

lets wait a few months & see if the crime goes up or not

[jocko]

As it's expensive in Phuket a lot may have to go home it remains to be seen if the clear up lasts.

A more controlled legal business is the answer for there future that remains to be seen also.

It's sad for them in a lot of cases they just had to conduct there business in the Phuket way it's been that way for years what would we have done given the same circumstances?

[EBlair48]

Good effort BD, I was thinking just thousands as in 3 or 4 but you're right with the peripheral summations . It is a significant percentage of the population affected.

lets wait a few months & see if the crime goes up or not

How will we know? These stats are not disclosed.ic Nor are traffic fatalities which if revealed would have us screaming to the exits And after the revelations about a certain finance minister fudging numbers, we cannot trust authorities to not lie. All we have are reports in English media, which unless involved foreigners, or occurs in foreign enclaves, we don't really read about it.

Does Thai media report bad news or does it consider reputation to be of utmost importance?

[NamKangMan]

I note there have been a couple of arrests of loan sharks recently.

These arrests are quite rare, but it did make me wonder if these couple of arrests were the result of a big increase in people borrowing, out of financial desperation, due to their loss of employment.

I have no evidence to back this up - it was just a thought.

Edited August 22, 2014 by NamKangMan

[Mudcrab]

On my count there has been at least 500 individual businesses now cleared off the beaches of Phuket.

Many of these were small mom and pop concerns but also a good few were also large establishments such as the lotus restaurant.

But to keep things simple I will estimate that taken as a whole each of these businesses created 6 jobs. Two owners or bosses plus 4 staff. In fact the job creation extends much further than this, one has to also think about the ice delivery guys, the booze and food delivery guys...and so on...but to keep things simple we will use the 6 jobs per business figure.

So what is the impact of these job losses? Lets look at the traditional Thai family. At least two kids, and usually supporting at least the mother and father on both sides of the family (of course, as many farangs know the web of financial support back in the village may extend much wider to include grandparents, aunts, uncles and so on)...

And now to some simple math:

500 businesses x 6 jobs x 6 dependants = 18,000 people effected

It is also prudent to note, at this point, that the above calculation does not include the massive job loses in other areas such as black Taxis, Tuk Tuks and minivans. Nor does it include the complete gutting of the in/out visa run businesses.

Given the manifest financial impacts of the job losses in Phuket, it would seem likely that there will be a significant jump in theft and other crimes against the person in the coming months. Perhaps it is also likely that there will be a jump in drug activity, due to displacement, unemployment, boredom and depression.

This trend would also appear to be surfacing on Koh Samui judging from the news reports from that Island in the last few days.

Be careful out there.

Ah the old political tool back in use...no fact all speculation.

Which one of the reincarnated Red brethren are you? Richteacher - Fabby in disguise?

The Thais are a much resourceful nation than you give them credit for. A lot will go back to their home province and the rest will get on with their lives as they did before.

ATMs are being broken into all over the world as I type this...mostly more successfully than the one in your link.

Stop scaremongering for your own political purposes.

Edited August 22, 2014 by LivinginKata
Quote corrected

[LivinginKata]

On my count there has been at least 500 individual businesses now cleared off the beaches of Phuket.

Many of these were small mom and pop concerns but also a good few were also large establishments such as the lotus restaurant.

But to keep things simple I will estimate that taken as a whole each of these businesses created 6 jobs. Two owners or bosses plus 4 staff. In fact the job creation extends much further than this, one has to also think about the ice delivery guys, the booze and food delivery guys...and so on...but to keep things simple we will use the 6 jobs per business figure.

So what is the impact of these job losses? Lets look at the traditional Thai family. At least two kids, and usually supporting at least the mother and father on both sides of the family (of course, as many farangs know the web of financial support back in the village may extend much wider to include grandparents, aunts, uncles and so on)...

And now to some simple math:

500 businesses x 6 jobs x 6 dependants = 18,000 people effected

It is also prudent to note, at this point, that the above calculation does not include the massive job loses in other areas such as black Taxis, Tuk Tuks and minivans. Nor does it include the complete gutting of the in/out visa run businesses.

Given the manifest financial impacts of the job losses in Phuket, it would seem likely that there will be a significant jump in theft and other crimes against the person in the coming months. Perhaps it is also likely that there will be a jump in drug activity, due to displacement, unemployment, boredom and depression.

This trend would also appear to be surfacing on Koh Samui judging from the news reports from that Island in the last few days.

Be careful out there.

Completely agree.

[NamKangMan]

On my count there has been at least 500 individual businesses now cleared off the beaches of Phuket.

Many of these were small mom and pop concerns but also a good few were also large establishments such as the lotus restaurant.

But to keep things simple I will estimate that taken as a whole each of these businesses created 6 jobs. Two owners or bosses plus 4 staff. In fact the job creation extends much further than this, one has to also think about the ice delivery guys, the booze and food delivery guys...and so on...but to keep things simple we will use the 6 jobs per business figure.

So what is the impact of these job losses? Lets look at the traditional Thai family. At least two kids, and usually supporting at least the mother and father on both sides of the family (of course, as many farangs know the web of financial support back in the village may extend much wider to include grandparents, aunts, uncles and so on)...

And now to some simple math:

500 businesses x 6 jobs x 6 dependants = 18,000 people effected

It is also prudent to note, at this point, that the above calculation does not include the massive job loses in other areas such as black Taxis, Tuk Tuks and minivans. Nor does it include the complete gutting of the in/out visa run businesses.

Given the manifest financial impacts of the job losses in Phuket, it would seem likely that there will be a significant jump in theft and other crimes against the person in the coming months. Perhaps it is also likely that there will be a jump in drug activity, due to displacement, unemployment, boredom and depression.

This trend would also appear to be surfacing on Koh Samui judging from the news reports from that Island in the last few days.

Be careful out there.

Ah the old political tool back in use...no fact all speculation.

Which one of the reincarnated Red brethren are you? Richteacher - Fabby in disguise?

The Thais are a much resourceful nation than you give them credit for. A lot will go back to their home province and the rest will get on with their lives as they did before.

ATMs are being broken into all over the world as I type this...mostly more successfully than the one in your link.

Stop scaremongering for your own political purposes.

At the very least, surely, you would have to agree that it's going to have a negative effect on the local Phuket economy.

[Somtamnication]

All this "cleansing" is only temporary.

[NamKangMan]

All this "cleansing" is only temporary.

I don't see new elections being called anytime soon.

Some suggest the middle of 2015, but I suspect we will not see new elections until late 2015, possibly early 2016. Either way, I think the Army will be on Phuket for a while to come.

It will be interesting what effect this coup has on the start of ASEAN.

There may even be a possibility that any newly formed Thai Government is stacked with Army Generals, just to keep the balance of power between the Reds and the Yellows.

Thailand is in some turmoil at the moment, with no political solution in sight.

Edited August 22, 2014 by NamKangMan

[EBlair48]

Ah the old political tool back in use...no fact all speculation.

Which one of the reincarnated Red brethren are you? Richteacher - Fabby in disguise?

The Thais are a much resourceful nation than you give them credit for. A lot will go back to their home province and the rest will get on with their lives as they did before.

ATMs are being broken into all over the world as I type this...mostly more successfully than the one in your link.

Stop scaremongering for your own political purposes.

No one has mentioned political parties, until you did.

I submit you have the political agenda, actually.

Edited August 22, 2014 by EBlair48

[EBlair48]

All this "cleansing" is only temporary.

I don't see new elections being called anytime soon.

Some suggest the middle of 2015, but I suspect we will not see new elections until late 2015, possibly early 2016. Either way, I think the Army will be on Phuket for a while to come.

It will be interesting what effect this coup has on the start of ASEAN.

There may even be a possibility that any newly formed Thai Government is stacked with Army Generals, just to keep the balance of power between the Reds and the Yellows.

Thailand is in some turmoil at the moment, with no political solution in sight.

I cannot agree with generals being a balance. They are royalists, yellow- shirt being a more common term and are all about the rich rule and the poor be damned.

I fully expect a law to be passed very soon to include the entire Parliament in Article 112 .

[steelepulse]

Think of how many more jobs will be created now. You're going to have beach cleaners (which never happened before, people cleaning up "their area" doesn't count), plenty of chair/lounger rental people, cold drinks people, umbrella people, and shops that sell umbrellas and chairs. I see it as a win for those that want to work legally. All of these illegal people that paid a nice bribe to the local authorities and didn't pay taxes, can now find a new line of work.

[EBlair48]

^ mmmm maybe that's why they are encouraging them to go back to home provinces? And I was just reading about Article 116, "Inciting unrest" Good grief how anyone can think this is acceptable?

[EBlair48]

Think of how many more jobs will be created now. You're going to have beach cleaners (which never happened before, people cleaning up "their area" doesn't count), plenty of chair/lounger rental people, cold drinks people, umbrella people, and shops that sell umbrellas and chairs. I see it as a win for those that want to work legally. All of these illegal people that paid a nice bribe to the local authorities and didn't pay taxes, can now find a new line of work.

And the guy , what... taking up space on the sidewalk with his rental loungers, or renting them off his truck is going to be paying taxes? (... So it seems the tourists might want those chairs and umbrellas after all?)

Beach cleaners? Doubtful. Garbage simply isn't on the radar. Better to clean up the sewer streams flowing into the sea , that's the real bio hazard.

Does Phuket even own machine sand sifters? It will take a convoy of those about a week if mid Bang Tao is ever to be safe to walk on barefoot again after what just happened there.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Think of how many more jobs will be created now. You're going to have beach cleaners (which never happened before, people cleaning up "their area" doesn't count), plenty of chair/lounger rental people, cold drinks people, umbrella people, and shops that sell umbrellas and chairs. I see it as a win for those that want to work legally. All of these illegal people that paid a nice bribe to the local authorities and didn't pay taxes, can now find a new line of work.

And from WHERE pray tell will these people run these new businesses that will create all these wonderful jobs? Farangs can't even afford to pay the key money and rents asked in Patong. What hope has a Thai punter. The rich are set to get much richer from all this, and the poor...well we all know what happens to them now that the bangkok elite are in contraol of Phuket.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

I note there have been a couple of arrests of loan sharks recently.

These arrests are quite rare, but it did make me wonder if these couple of arrests were the result of a big increase in people borrowing, out of financial desperation, due to their loss of employment.

I have no evidence to back this up - it was just a thought.

I notice those articles also. I think that loan shark activity is as probably as good a financial bellweather as one may find in Phuket. NKM, what say you and I also keep an eye out for articles talking about a roaring trade at the Thai porn shops such as the one at Chern Talay. That would also be a good indicator that workaday Thais are doing it tough in Phuket.

[steelepulse]

Think of how many more jobs will be created now. You're going to have beach cleaners (which never happened before, people cleaning up "their area" doesn't count), plenty of chair/lounger rental people, cold drinks people, umbrella people, and shops that sell umbrellas and chairs. I see it as a win for those that want to work legally. All of these illegal people that paid a nice bribe to the local authorities and didn't pay taxes, can now find a new line of work.

And the guy , what... taking up space on the sidewalk with his rental loungers, or renting them off his truck is going to be paying taxes? (... So it seems the tourists might want those chairs and umbrellas after all?)

Beach cleaners? Doubtful. Garbage simply isn't on the radar. Better to clean up the sewer streams flowing into the sea , that's the real bio hazard.

Does Phuket even own machine sand sifters? It will take a convoy of those about a week if mid Bang Tao is ever to be safe to walk on barefoot again after what just happened there.

Might want to read my post about Nai Harn being spotless, before you spout off. Yes, you and I both know that the Thai entrepreneurs will be renting out chairs, umbrellas and beverages from areas away from the beach.

You're getting a bit redundant in the rich vs poor spew, BTW.

[EBlair48]

I read your topic but as that's not a beach I frequent or have even seen in years, I have no comment on its state.

So the hotel staff did something about the garbage... good for them but it actually illustrates my point the govt will not pay to maintain the beaches, only businesses using their staff at their expense.

And the renting out loungers will be a street or two away you say? Perhaps, though doubtful they will slog those heavy plastic units a few blocks, more likely from a truck only a few meters and they still won't be paying taxes, either.

Speaking of which, lots of taxes have now dried up, those allegedly non tax paying merchants all bought liquor and other supplies from businesses that did pay taxes.

I have no intention of changing my views as you find them redundant, nor will I stop expressing them in a polite manner in which I hope to convince others of my opinion. Perhaps you'll inform me how the poor are benefiting from the recent actions - if that's what you really believe.

Edited August 22, 2014 by EBlair48

[Ulic]

Plenty of work in Phuket, tourists still eat, food stalls will be relocated. All will be fine, just a little difficult

and unsettling for those directly affected. A definite plus for the beaches though. Tourists will get all the

services they want, (beach chairs/umbrellas will be stored off site and put up individually as requested, drink

hawkers will walk the beach with ice coolers full of beer, food orders taken and food delivered) The beaches

hopefully will remain wide open with nobody controlling large chunks of public property.

[whatproblem]

People will still eat but at legal places ,so jobs created there,taxes paid and less scams ,only the illegal places closed ,if you had a legall restaurant you would be happy

[craigt3365]

A post discussing the junta has been removed from view. Please remember we are under martial law and have a zero tolerance for these types of posts.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

People will still eat but at legal places ,so jobs created there,taxes paid and less scams ,only the illegal places closed ,if you had a legall restaurant you would be happy

If you are rich and own your restaurant then yipee. However, about 12 old tin money families own ALL of phuket. So the rich are indeed rubbing their hands together and the poor, well their aspirations of self employment have been gutted and back on to the 300THB day wage is their only option now. Oh...except the rich will use Burmese staff at 150THB a day...so actually the poor Thais have no option. Stay in Phuket and starve, or go back to the provinces and starve. Oh well, at least in Phuket they can starve while looking at a clean beach.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Bulldozer Dawn

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Job loses are not limited to Phuket. The poor self employed in Bangkok are now facing the same dilemnas.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/753944-street-resistance-bangkok-vendors-say-new-sidewalk-rules-hurt-business/

[grumpyoldman]

People will still eat but at legal places ,so jobs created there,taxes paid and less scams ,only the illegal places closed ,if you had a legall restaurant you would be happy

If you are rich and own your restaurant then yipee. However, about 12 old tin money families own ALL of phuket. So the rich are indeed rubbing their hands together and the poor, well their aspirations of self employment have been gutted and back on to the 300THB day wage is their only option now. Oh...except the rich will use Burmese staff at 150THB a day...so actually the poor Thais have no option. Stay in Phuket and starve, or go back to the provinces and starve. Oh well, at least in Phuket they can starve while looking at a clean beach.

Bangtao Boy and Eblair, you guys just aren't getting it are you. First off "losses" o.k. Maybe you can get a mod to adjust that.

These "poor folks" you are sooooo worried about will have new jobs under new rules, under people running businesses LEGALLY.......HELLO!!! Also, coming into high season all of the resorts need staff, I can tell you personally I lose staff to job jumping next month every year. So many jobs not enough people.

So please stop with your drumbeats, you are not seeing the forest through the trees.This adjustment was absolutely necessary for the longterm good, please see that beyond your "job losses" concerns.

[Old Croc]

People will still eat but at legal places ,so jobs created there,taxes paid and less scams ,only the illegal places closed ,if you had a legall restaurant you would be happy

If you are rich and own your restaurant then yipee. However, about 12 old tin money families own ALL of phuket. So the rich are indeed rubbing their hands together and the poor, well their aspirations of self employment have been gutted and back on to the 300THB day wage is their only option now. Oh...except the rich will use Burmese staff at 150THB a day...so actually the poor Thais have no option. Stay in Phuket and starve, or go back to the provinces and starve. Oh well, at least in Phuket they can starve while looking at a clean beach.

Bangtao Boy and Eblair, you guys just aren't getting it are you. First off "losses" o.k. Maybe you can get a mod to adjust that.

These "poor folks" you are sooooo worried about will have new jobs under new rules, under people running businesses LEGALLY.......HELLO!!! Also, coming into high season all of the resorts need staff, I can tell you personally I lose staff to job jumping next month every year. So many jobs not enough people.

So please stop with your drumbeats, you are not seeing the forest through the trees.This adjustment was absolutely necessary for the longterm good, please see that beyond your "job losses" concerns.

These recycled doomsayers don't give a stuff about a few Thais or Burmese temporarily out of work.

These whining threads are really just their way of expressing their political agendas without breaking rules.