ChiangRai changes

[Joel Barlow]

Not long ago, a year and a half maybe, in this distinctive little city could be seen massive amounts of cash racing from hand to hand, at banks especially: large bags of bundles thousand-baht notes worth tens of thousands US, getting counted on the electronic machines. Land prices doubled while illegal casinos did so much business that some had to close down, their parking lots full of 'pawned' vehicles they could no longer sell in newly saturated Shan State. Everyone was so rich you couldn't even get illegal immigrants to work for minimum wage. Cheap housing was going up at a rate not seen since the 1997 'Thaitanic' crash, but somehow we didn't get a resurgance of nice restaurants or bars, art or handicraft shops, or boutiques. The day of the 'spa' has come and mostly gone, but coffee-shops and bakeries with minimal offerings ubiquitous, massage parlors and opticians are everywhere... just nothing that really requires work. Some road-work was done, but narrow lanes and potholes remain the norm.

Just north of Ban Du (the north side of Amphoe Muang) at Ban Pa Ha, are many new houses, some in 'developments' of small units, a few costly and large. There's a bit of interesting architecture, including an old, raised two-story teak house with ornate galae roof decorations (but it seems to be falling apart), and a small place with plate-glass framed by heavily varnished uncut wood still in the shape of the trees it came from. Just east of there, construction of a wide divided highway has commenced, but judging by the speed of other road-work, it will take years to become usable. It's to go to Chiang Saen, the same road that goes by the entrance to the airport and south to near the new HomePro, which will be extended on south - going I don't know where... Nan or perhaps as an alternate route to PhaYao?

One would expect that the ChiangRai 'discussion group' forums might provide information on development plans, progress and these kind of changes, but so far I haven't noticed any. A rumor spread to me of plans for a new department-store complex in Ban Du, to include another Big C (the one we have, despite being right across the highway from the new Central/Robinson complex, has insufficient parking, as also does Central!). But it seems to me that locals go to Big C and Central as much to see and be seen as to spend. Lots of little, inexpensive restaurants have opened, but they seem not well patronized, and I wonder if soon we won't be seeing lots of the money-washing businesses close.

With less crime, the government making banks act cautiously about money washing, less tourism, less disbursement of funds by the lovelorn to local lasses, less donation to charities, less arms sales to tribal armies in Myanmar, less gambling, less foreign aid coming in (no Cobra Gold war games, fewer foreign navy ships docking in Pattaya), less from concerns like the Rockerfellow Foundation, less profit from drug dealing, less spent in bars, less spent in restaurants, less brought in by expats looking to settle and invest, less naievely invested by a huge variety of mobsters, some semi-legit, and far less paid out to protestors, well, the water-pressure at the money pump just simply looks kind of low these days.

I suppose the new highway is meant to imporve the financial picture. But looking at maps to try to make sense of the new highway from the airport to ChiangSaen, I fail. Maybe the new road will join Highway 1209 to ThaKhaoPluak, but from there it'd have to turn to Doi Luang, an OK country road, then 1271 to Chiang Saen. For what? Access to casinos? To lure Chinese customers who come for the casions to go on further, to Amphoe Muang?

The road to Kunming is through ChiangKhong, not ChiangSaen, and the small roads in Laos from the other side of the Mekhong from Chiang Sai (Hwy 2) are much smaller than Hwy 3 to LuangNartha (then up to Kunming or down to LuangPrabang). And Hwy 3 is the only major thru-fare there.

So what, I wonder, is the expensive new road really about? Utilizing budgeted monies? Kickbacks? Taksin's plan for a "special economic zone" in ChiangSaen?

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourists will purportedly drive down, annually, but already not only are they unwelcome in ChiangMai, and don't go there anymore!

Anyone have any other knowledge about what's going on?

[Chicken George]

Only an observation. I think the land bubble has burst due to the amount of earth quakes after shocks and people just don't want to come and live here anymore. A lot of investors maybe have had their fingers burnt.

[AjarnP]

Only an observation. I think the land bubble has burst due to the amount of earth quakes after shocks and people just don't want to come and live here anymore. A lot of investors maybe have had their fingers burnt.

I'm afraid I'm of the opinion that says the opposite.

A house having been designed properly with earthquake in mind and which has withstood the recent seismic activity with ne'er a crack is a good buy. I grant that one might need to realign the pictures on the wall and the knickknacks on the mantelpiece but they needed dusting anyway.

[Chicken George]

Only an observation. I think the land bubble has burst due to the amount of earth quakes after shocks and people just don't want to come and live here anymore. A lot of investors maybe have had their fingers burnt.

I'm afraid I'm of the opinion that says the opposite.

A house having been designed properly with earthquake in mind and which has withstood the recent seismic activity with ne'er a crack is a good buy. I grant that one might need to realign the pictures on the wall and the knickknacks on the mantelpiece but they needed dusting anyway.

Yes completely true. But the land that has or seems to have been bought as an investment does not seem to be selling on. As for the houses for sale on the local sites it seems just to be the same old ones. Maybe for the reason you give. People tend to buy land and move here building their own house. Thais mostly that is and they tend to come from Bangkok with enough money to buy land and build to their own spec. They don't seem to want old houses. But it seems now the land is not selling. I have heard others quote the reason being is because of the fear of earth quakes. I may be wrong of course and local selling agents I'm sure would not agree. But there is for sure a slow down. Your thoughts?

[villagefarang]

I remember watching dozens of construction cranes coming to a halt from my bedroom window, with predictions that Bangkok and Thailand were doomed. In time most of those buildings were finished and many more begun. Whether in Bangkok or Chiang Rai, development tends to be cyclical from what I have seen and predictions of what is going to happen are little more than blind optimism or scare mongering as no one really knows, regardless of how well connected they claim to be.

I appreciate the OPs unique perspective on all things Thai, especially his historical accounts, and I understand the appeal of the who has the most information or best contacts debate. I used to play that game too and marveled at the conviction of Thai friends who swore they knew exactly what was going to happen, who was going to do it and when.

It didn’t matter that they were almost always wrong or that the political and economic conditions were as changeable as the weather. Trying to predict the future just seems to be part of the human condition and one can sound very important depending on how confidently one presents predictions for that future.

I watch with interest as events unfold but have long ago stopped trying to guess what is going to happen.

Edited August 26, 2014 by villagefarang

[siriweith]

No words for the kind of the building in town

if sameone will say

what beautiful city!!!

must to be a little beat crazy.

I am in phuket now

real estate stop

is impossible to sell samething now and 2 years ago can sell also a shit.

Until now people from bangkok and chiang mai support the market in chiang rai

but this will happen for ever?

They became rich with the price of the land grow a lot

but the head still the same

and when is empty

if very diffuclt to grow in the right way.

Bubble is very closed.

Edited August 26, 2014 by siriweith

[apache9441]

Joel, I thought that road development your talking about was just part of the Ring road. If it's a true ring road then it's certainly welcome. I hadn't heard it was going to Chiang Saen though. They have built a huge inland port there just off the Mekhong which I doubt has any traffic at the moment. People say the Chinese are coming although I've only really witnessed a trickle personally but people are saying a Huge city's is being built over the border in Laos but I wouldn't really know, I never saw any evidence of it a few years ago that last time I was riding there. I don't know if you've been up Chiang Khong way recently but it's like a ghost Town as far as Tourists are concerned but the place is booming construction wise. new Hotels, new Coffee Shops... New Bus station. They can't all be wrong can they ? .

[villagefarang]

I agree with the notion that ring roads are not designed so much to go from point A to point B as they are to avoid the congestion of driving through the middle of an already busy town. I don’t see evil ulterior motives for the continued development of Chiang Rai. It is just that relentless forward movement some people call progress and others label differently.

[Joel Barlow]

An educated person from Ban Pa Ha tells me the improved road past the front of the airport will go just a bit further north to split this side of MFL U., and so become a by-pass route and also a road to ChiangSaen via the route I mentioned previously.

[Upset]

If you guys think that CR has a problem...come to Phayao. Its a joke. My unfortunate better half invested in shop houses in the city side and around Kwan phayao and also bought houses in the city and also at Dok Kham Thai etc. Thank God I put most of my monies in Bangkok that gives me good returns but my better half invested more than 75 milliom baht into properties in Phayao. Beautiful 4 storey shop houses in prime locations that now only command a rent of Bt 4,ooo per month (despite him buying it for about 3.2 million baht 8 years ago.) cannot even find renters and forget about even renting out residential properties.

Yes, land prices keep on going up as the locals keep on jacking up the prices...but no one is buying.

In Dok Kham Thai where a lot of monies came in thru the girls selling themselves in the past, the incidence of people dying from AIDs is so high plus a lot of properties are now with the banks. Really a province with no more potential.

[boomerangutang]

Selling real estate wasn't easy between 4 and 10 years ago, when I was endeavoring to make some commissions with a Thai friend. It's tougher now, mainly because of the military gov't - but also for reasons mentioned above.

I've seen at least a hundred buildings pop up in the immediate region within the past 2 years, nearly all with the same motif, so I assume they're by the same developer. The motif: vertical square bars. They're about 2" x 2" (wood or metal?) about 3" apart. The buildings are often yellow and brown color scheme. Many dozens of them, usually 2 story with between 8 and 20 units. It fits with my prediction from a year ago that C.Rai will double in size in 5 years. The proof is the brown ring around the city: large swaths of clay devoid of any greenery, and usually with 1 meter of fill. My guess is it's Chinese money. A friend who plays golf sometimes with rich Chinese guys backs up that guess, judging from what he claims to have overheard.

Speaking of golf, how about a miniature golf course for Chiang Rai. A nice wholesome way for families to interact, if they can tear their little darlings away from computer screens.

[jethro69]

AFAIK, the road should link to the inland port ~10-12Km from Chiang Saen towards Chiang Khong. Probably still not finished, it crosses somewhere near Doi Luang. I gave up riding around there as the roads were in a disgrace. Might take a scouting trip on the WE.

[villagefarang]

I suppose it will be nice when it is finished but the entrance to the Airport sure is a mess. Fortunately they finally poured some asphalt on the temporary section as those potholes were really getting deep. Things always get messy before they get better.