DNA test will clear my son: Koh Tao headman

[ukrules]

What does Pol Lt-Gen Panya Mamen have to say about all of this ? Where is he anyway ? His newsfeed seems to have dried up these days :

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/tag/pol-lt-gen-panya-mamen/

[greenchair]

Where did the brits go ?

[jdinasia]

explain the disappearing wooden furniture or is that an urban myth and conspiracy theory JD?

Conspiracy theory.

Explain why not one single legitimate news source has not reported on it.

Because there is nothing new in the public domain. The British Police do not announce every tiny gain in the same way the Thai police do. Maybe if the RTP spent as much time investigating as the do parading front of the cameras then they might have a decent case.

When the British Police make an announcement it'll be because they're ready to. They are under no significant pressure so that gives them the edge. I doubt they came into this scenario running blind. The witnesses would be held accountable if they spoke out of turn so no news there.

You, me and everybody else are just going to have to wait for our "told you so"s.

You missed the refferent for "it"

It being the conspiracy theory that the furniture was changed months ago.

BTW, glanced through your posts and you didn't ask for just a DNA test that I saw. Most people did.

This was interesting though "Yes, he has been arrested and charged in the UK. His DNA is on the database."

[draftvader]

explain the disappearing wooden furniture or is that an urban myth and conspiracy theory JD?

Conspiracy theory.

Explain why not one single legitimate news source has not reported on it.

Because there is nothing new in the public domain. The British Police do not announce every tiny gain in the same way the Thai police do. Maybe if the RTP spent as much time investigating as the do parading front of the cameras then they might have a decent case.

When the British Police make an announcement it'll be because they're ready to. They are under no significant pressure so that gives them the edge. I doubt they came into this scenario running blind. The witnesses would be held accountable if they spoke out of turn so no news there.

You, me and everybody else are just going to have to wait for our "told you so"s.

You missed the refferent for "it"

It being the conspiracy theory that the furniture was changed months ago.

BTW, glanced through your posts and you didn't ask for just a DNA test that I saw. Most people did.

This was interesting though "Yes, he has been arrested and charged in the UK. His DNA is on the database."

Sean McAnna was, yes. This means they have his DNA profile.

By the way I am not interested in lines of questioning that are debatable/open to manipulation. These distract from a simple truth. Accurate DNA testing would produce a smoking gun. Why wasn't this possible? Utter incompetence or intentional perversion of the course of justice? Neither is particularly reassuring or lends any credibility to the latest showpiece.

[balo]

Regarding the running man and his height as compared to the suspects.

Here is a photo that has used CS6 to ascertain heights using the door as a guide.

Not my photo but I did the excercise and it seems pretty accurate.

runningman.jpg

I wish the conspiracy theorists in here could look at both sides of the coin instead of blaming it all on the headmans family.

If they took their time to study any theories about the burmese guys , like this example shows , maybe your conclusion would have been different.

[DennisF]

Regarding the running man and his height as compared to the suspects.

Here is a photo that has used CS6 to ascertain heights using the door as a guide.

Not my photo but I did the excercise and it seems pretty accurate.

runningman.jpg

I wish the conspiracy theorists in here could look at both sides of the coin instead of blaming it all on the headmans family.

If they took their time to study any theories about the burmese guys , like this example shows , maybe your conclusion would have been different.

If anything, this gives the CT something to hang on to. It clearly shows the Burmese 2 are much shorter than the running man.

On saying that, the measurements taken cannot be regarded as 100% accurate, I personally arrived at a slightly different height for

the B2 but, maybe the person who did the original photo is more competent than I am, I dont know.

What I believe is that the hoped for British Police report is the only think that will satisfy 100's of thousands of people.

Photoshoots with a police chief in petulant mood is not going to cut it.

It is obvious from the photo that this is a man not used to being questioned or second guessed and my own feeling is that the comment

'No Thai would have done this'

set the scene for an investigation that is seen as incompetent at best.

So far as the family of interest is concerned, who knows the truth??

Certainly no one on this forum but, there are many questions unanswered that would be easy for them to answer so we have to wonder

1. Have they something to hide or

2. Do they have a flook them why should I attitude or perhaps even

3. Ignore it, it will go away?

Maybe another reason altogether.

Why was a 70% DNA match of the uncle, dismissed as not relevant?? Could it be that the RTP knew their collection and sampling methods were flawed??

Why did the father say the son had left the island that day and a short time later declared he had not seen him for some considerable time?

All of this was reported in mainstream media, the so called armchair detectives, keyboard warriors etc can be forgiven for getting their teeth into the

many inconsistencies.

The conspiracy theories were started by the conflicting information and inept actions of the RTP, dont blame the posters here for that.

There are so many questions and so few answers.

[Gweiloman]

Regarding the running man and his height as compared to the suspects.

Here is a photo that has used CS6 to ascertain heights using the door as a guide.

Not my photo but I did the excercise and it seems pretty accurate.

runningman.jpg

I wish the conspiracy theorists in here could look at both sides of the coin instead of blaming it all on the headmans family.

If they took their time to study any theories about the burmese guys , like this example shows , maybe your conclusion would have been different.

I would counter and say that it's the likes of you and some others that are NOT looking at both sides of the coin. You may be satisfied with the case put forward by the RTP but why are you and a couple of others not willing to consider all the evidence being presented?

Who is this running man? Do you not think that he might be an important witness or even a suspect? Or are you so certain that the B2 has committed this dastardly crime and that's that?

[balo]

Regarding the running man and his height as compared to the suspects.

Here is a photo that has used CS6 to ascertain heights using the door as a guide.

Not my photo but I did the excercise and it seems pretty accurate.

runningman.jpg

I wish the conspiracy theorists in here could look at both sides of the coin instead of blaming it all on the headmans family.

If they took their time to study any theories about the burmese guys , like this example shows , maybe your conclusion would have been different.

I would counter and say that it's the likes of you and some others that are NOT looking at both sides of the coin. You may be satisfied with the case put forward by the RTP but why are you and a couple of others not willing to consider all the evidence being presented?

Who is this running man? Do you not think that he might be an important witness or even a suspect? Or are you so certain that the B2 has committed this dastardly crime and that's that?

I am not certain about anything, and I am not certain that the headmans family are involved in a brutal murder, corruption yes, but not this type of crime. But most other posters in here seems certain that the headman is involved and is controlling RTP and all of Thailand which is ridiculous when you think about it.

So all this social media contribution is not always a good thing when the focus is only targeted in one direction .

Any good, clear evidence should be looked at by the investigators and I'm sure they are doing this. To suggest that the headman bribed his way out of murders and that it goes all the way up to the top politicians in Bangkok as CSI LA and others are claiiming is so wrong that nobody can take that serious except the conspiracy theorists. .

[boomerangutang]

Anyone who looks objectively at the reams of data put forth on CSI LA can find some tidbits which could prove to be useful. The key word is 'objective.' Conversely, anyone who looks subjectively at CSI LA site and is rooting for the police to be correct, will come away with the denigrating assessment: 'conspiracy theory.'

No one is saying all the stuff on CSI LA site is valid. Instead, we're saying there are some items there which could shed some very interesting light on the investigation. ....many of which were either unknown to Thai investigators (photos submitted by others) or things quite possibly not thought-about by Thai investigators. If I were investigating a crime, I would be open to contributions from a plethora of others. Even if 99% of the items/tips/theories submitted by outsiders are unusable, that 1% could be case-solvers. Detectives in western countries have been using similar methods for a long time.

Here are two of hundreds of examples: In San Francisco, there was a serial killer called 'Zodiac Killer' at large who would leave cryptic written messages. After trying for months in vain to decipher them, the cops published copies in the major newspaper. A couple days later, a suburban couple broke the code and the messages were able to be decyphered. Remarkable things can happen when large numbers of concerned people become involved.

A similar dynamic happened with America's Unibomber. Investigators were stuck and couldn't find a suspect. They printed one of his letters in the newspaper, and a relative of the suspect contacted cops, which led to an arrest and conviction.

Both the above examples happened before the onset of the internet. JD, balo and JTJ would have called such outside participation 'conspiracy theory' ....but it can have useful results.

If they really want conspiracy theories, try: Christianity or Islam.

Edited November 4, 2014 by boomerangutang

[jdinasia]

Again graciously stating what I would think do or say.

(and building 3 new straw man fallacies)

Why? Obviously to promote conspiracy theories.

I would suggest leaving religion out of this.

Edited November 4, 2014 by jdinasia

[JohnThailandJohn]

Where has it ever been suggested that he has been unable to provide details of his trip by any reasonable person? Hint: A reasonable person is not one who has already been told of witnesses, video, university and DNA evidence to show he was not there as well as the simple fact there is absolutely no logical reason to tie him to this crime. You people have just singled somebody out because his family has some wealth and power. This idiotic theory was even believed by police early on until they also cleared him early on.

There is no video of him on the island at this time and no crime scene photos showing him the next day despite what moronic no-named ignorant internet detectives claim.

Did anyone check the claim that the chairs in the lobby were moved out months ago?

Are you for real? Clearly they were not as can be seen in the video or do you think maybe the entire building is in on the conspiracy along with hundreds of others for some unknown reason.

Doctored tape maybe - but not likely according to you as everything with this investigation is above board and pukka.

Doctored tape and every in the building who knows about this story in on the conspiracy.

[jdinasia]

Not just the people who live in the building. All the press from Thailand and abroad, every neighbor, visitor and delivery person. All part of a conspiracy.

As for the false comparisons to the Zodiac killer etc. It shows how far conspiracy theorists will go. Very sad

[boomerangutang]

Not just the people who live in the building. All the press from Thailand and abroad, every neighbor, visitor and delivery person. All part of a conspiracy.

As for the false comparisons to the Zodiac killer etc. It shows how far conspiracy theorists will go. Very sad

The Zodiac case fits in the sense that: When US cops couldn't find the Zodiac killer, they reached out to the general public for assistance (and it worked well to gain leads). JD and JTJ think that ALL input from the general public is 'conspiracy theory' and have stated that numerous times. They think only Thai cops can find and correctly decipher the necessary clues to solve the Ko Tao case. All else, in their view, is silliness and fluff and grounds for defamation lawsuits.

[jdinasia]

Again you make both a false comparison, and think you are a mind reader

[draftvader]

I would love the facility to work out the following on ThaiVisa.

Total characters posted/Total # of posts

[Gweiloman]

I would counter and say that it's the likes of you and some others that are NOT looking at both sides of the coin. You may be satisfied with the case put forward by the RTP but why are you and a couple of others not willing to consider all the evidence being presented?

Who is this running man? Do you not think that he might be an important witness or even a suspect? Or are you so certain that the B2 has committed this dastardly crime and that's that?

I am not certain about anything, and I am not certain that the headmans family are involved in a brutal murder, corruption yes, but not this type of crime. But most other posters in here seems certain that the headman is involved and is controlling RTP and all of Thailand which is ridiculous when you think about it.

So all this social media contribution is not always a good thing when the focus is only targeted in one direction .

Any good, clear evidence should be looked at by the investigators and I'm sure they are doing this. To suggest that the headman bribed his way out of murders and that it goes all the way up to the top politicians in Bangkok as CSI LA and others are claiiming is so wrong that nobody can take that serious except the conspiracy theorists. .

Thanks for an objective post without trying to deflect. I can agree with most of it.

My take on it is slightly different. I find it hard to believe that the B2 are the perps for some of the following reasons:

- they are of a much smaller physical stature than both the victims. There is no evidence that David was engaged in sexual intercourse with Hannah that would allow the B2 to creep up upon him and hit him over the head with the hoe (in fact, the hoe is not even believed to be the murder weapon).

- there is no evidence that David was so drunk or drugged out that he was not able to put up a fight (see CCTV footage on David) and it was released by the police that David did put up a fight. The injuries to his face were obviously not caused by the hoe or the other blunt instrument. Unless David was already on the ground, it would be very difficult to imagine that the short B2 (one of them at least) would be able to inflict such injuries on his face. Even if he was on the ground, the natural instinct for two smaller guys would be to continue bashing him with either the hoe or the blunt instrument and not the kind of weapon that would cause those injuries (which I doubt could be fatal).

- it does not make sense to then pull him to the water to drown him. If the B2 were capable of overpowering him, it would be a lot quicker and simpler to kill him with their weapons rather than drown him

- condom with Hannah's DNA on the outside but nothing on the inside. This could happen if there were two condoms used - ie slip the second one over the first one. This way, the second condom would have Hannah's DNA on the outside and nothing on the inside. The first condom (with the rapist's DNA on the inside and nothing on the outside) could be disposed of very easily in other ways or at a later time. I doubt the B2 would have thought of this or even bothered to use a condom.

- as the B2 were illegal (without proper papers), it doesn't make sense for them to stay around on the island

I also have my theories about the conspiracy theories but it might not be a good idea to comment on them publicly here.

[Bleacher Bum East]

I would love the facility to work out the following on ThaiVisa.

Total characters posted/Total # of posts

I once looked at that for a completely different topic.

Out of 173 posts, 121 were made by 5 people...and of the last 50 or so posts, almost all were made by those 5 people.

At the beginning I think people jump in and want to have a say about a topic they are interested in ... and people that don't want to post follow the thread to find out new information.

But eventually all these people get tired of wading through the hyperbole and shouting and etc. etc. and drop away.

That leaves only a handful of posters in a pissing contest aimed at each other with almost nothing new being added.

I'd like to think that some people still come to the threads in search of new developments or ways of looking at the topic.

But I think the reality is that I'm just standing in a corner pissing on the wall.

[changnaam]

I would love the facility to work out the following on ThaiVisa.

Total characters posted/Total # of posts

I once looked at that for a completely different topic.

Out of 173 posts, 121 were made by 5 people...and of the last 50 or so posts, almost all were made by those 5 people.

At the beginning I think people jump in and want to have a say about a topic they are interested in ... and people that don't want to post follow the thread to find out new information.

But eventually all these people get tired of wading through the hyperbole and shouting and etc. etc. and drop away.

That leaves only a handful of posters in a pissing contest aimed at each other with almost nothing new being added.

I'd like to think that some people still come to the threads in search of new developments or ways of looking at the topic.

But I think the reality is that I'm just standing in a corner pissing on the wall.

Very good point. What I have also noticed is that those who are actually trying to make a point will do so in more than just one sentence. Many on here have spent a lot of time putting together a balanced post with evidence and even links attached.

Only to be knocked back with a one liner such as.....

Conspiracy theorists are out tonight

You have no evidence

Or such like to attempt to dilute the argument.

Sorry, back on topic...... The DNA test cleared him of what?

Being on the island?....

Being at uni?

Being on beach at 4am?

Not sure what they were trying to achieve,

[balo]

I would counter and say that it's the likes of you and some others that are NOT looking at both sides of the coin. You may be satisfied with the case put forward by the RTP but why are you and a couple of others not willing to consider all the evidence being presented?

Who is this running man? Do you not think that he might be an important witness or even a suspect? Or are you so certain that the B2 has committed this dastardly crime and that's that?

I am not certain about anything, and I am not certain that the headmans family are involved in a brutal murder, corruption yes, but not this type of crime. But most other posters in here seems certain that the headman is involved and is controlling RTP and all of Thailand which is ridiculous when you think about it.

So all this social media contribution is not always a good thing when the focus is only targeted in one direction .

Any good, clear evidence should be looked at by the investigators and I'm sure they are doing this. To suggest that the headman bribed his way out of murders and that it goes all the way up to the top politicians in Bangkok as CSI LA and others are claiiming is so wrong that nobody can take that serious except the conspiracy theorists. .

Thanks for an objective post without trying to deflect. I can agree with most of it.

My take on it is slightly different. I find it hard to believe that the B2 are the perps for some of the following reasons:

- they are of a much smaller physical stature than both the victims. There is no evidence that David was engaged in sexual intercourse with Hannah that would allow the B2 to creep up upon him and hit him over the head with the hoe (in fact, the hoe is not even believed to be the murder weapon).

- there is no evidence that David was so drunk or drugged out that he was not able to put up a fight (see CCTV footage on David) and it was released by the police that David did put up a fight. The injuries to his face were obviously not caused by the hoe or the other blunt instrument. Unless David was already on the ground, it would be very difficult to imagine that the short B2 (one of them at least) would be able to inflict such injuries on his face. Even if he was on the ground, the natural instinct for two smaller guys would be to continue bashing him with either the hoe or the blunt instrument and not the kind of weapon that would cause those injuries (which I doubt could be fatal).

- it does not make sense to then pull him to the water to drown him. If the B2 were capable of overpowering him, it would be a lot quicker and simpler to kill him with their weapons rather than drown him

- condom with Hannah's DNA on the outside but nothing on the inside. This could happen if there were two condoms used - ie slip the second one over the first one. This way, the second condom would have Hannah's DNA on the outside and nothing on the inside. The first condom (with the rapist's DNA on the inside and nothing on the outside) could be disposed of very easily in other ways or at a later time. I doubt the B2 would have thought of this or even bothered to use a condom.

- as the B2 were illegal (without proper papers), it doesn't make sense for them to stay around on the island

I also have my theories about the conspiracy theories but it might not be a good idea to comment on them publicly here.

I agree with most of your posts except this :

they are of a much smaller physical stature than both the victims.

I have heard this one before, keep in mind that most Thais or other asian guys are not very tall and are slim built, a 23 year old boy look like a teenager if we compare with westerners. And if you ever witnessed a gang of Thai youth attacking westerners you would think twice about this statement.. And we have several examples of it here in Pattaya. Big drunk farangs been attacked by 17 year old kids driving on bikes, the foreigner had no chance to escape the beatings or knife stabbing, they attack in groups and they know how to fight.

So I do not agree with you at all, I am sure that the Burmese guys are no different than Thais and will use any weapon available in a fight And most likely 3 or 4 against 1.

- as the B2 were illegal (without proper papers), it doesn't make sense for them to stay around on the island

This has been explained before and maybe it's difficult to understand when you're looking at it from the outside. Yes the B2 were working illegally as most Burmese on the island , I have no statistics but I think as many as 70% or more of the immigrants do not have a valid work permit.

So why didnt they just escape the island? Where could they go without any money ? They would not reach very far. And when you think about itit, if you commit a murder and then escape , you tell everyone you're the suspect , its a small island , try to escape and you send out a signal to the police to come after you. And they will find you , not easy to hide in Thailand when you're Burmese. So better to just stay calm and act like nothing has happened.

Edited November 5, 2014 by balo

[Gweiloman]

Thanks for an objective post without trying to deflect. I can agree with most of it.

My take on it is slightly different. I find it hard to believe that the B2 are the perps for some of the following reasons:

- they are of a much smaller physical stature than both the victims. There is no evidence that David was engaged in sexual intercourse with Hannah that would allow the B2 to creep up upon him and hit him over the head with the hoe (in fact, the hoe is not even believed to be the murder weapon).

- there is no evidence that David was so drunk or drugged out that he was not able to put up a fight (see CCTV footage on David) and it was released by the police that David did put up a fight. The injuries to his face were obviously not caused by the hoe or the other blunt instrument. Unless David was already on the ground, it would be very difficult to imagine that the short B2 (one of them at least) would be able to inflict such injuries on his face. Even if he was on the ground, the natural instinct for two smaller guys would be to continue bashing him with either the hoe or the blunt instrument and not the kind of weapon that would cause those injuries (which I doubt could be fatal).

- it does not make sense to then pull him to the water to drown him. If the B2 were capable of overpowering him, it would be a lot quicker and simpler to kill him with their weapons rather than drown him

- condom with Hannah's DNA on the outside but nothing on the inside. This could happen if there were two condoms used - ie slip the second one over the first one. This way, the second condom would have Hannah's DNA on the outside and nothing on the inside. The first condom (with the rapist's DNA on the inside and nothing on the outside) could be disposed of very easily in other ways or at a later time. I doubt the B2 would have thought of this or even bothered to use a condom.

- as the B2 were illegal (without proper papers), it doesn't make sense for them to stay around on the island

I also have my theories about the conspiracy theories but it might not be a good idea to comment on them publicly here.

I agree with most of your posts except this :

they are of a much smaller physical stature than both the victims.

I have heard this one before, keep in mind that most Thais or other asian guys are not very tall and are slim built, a 23 year old boy look like a teenager if we compare with westerners. And if you ever witnessed a gang of Thai youth attacking westerners you would think twice about this statement.. And we have several examples of it here in Pattaya. Big drunk farangs been attacked by 17 year old kids driving on bikes, the foreigner had no chance to escape the beatings or knife stabbing, they attack in groups and they know how to fight.

So I do not agree with you at all, I am sure that the Burmese guys are no different than Thais and will use any weapon available in a fight And most likely 3 or 4 against 1.

- as the B2 were illegal (without proper papers), it doesn't make sense for them to stay around on the island

This has been explained before and maybe it's difficult to understand when you're looking at it from the outside. Yes the B2 were working illegally as most Burmese on the island , I have no statistics but I think as many as 70% or more of the immigrants do not have a valid work permit.

So why didnt they just escape the island? Where could they go without any money ? They would not reach very far. And when you think about itit, if you commit a murder and then escape , you tell everyone you're the suspect , its a small island , try to escape and you send out a signal to the police to come after you. And they will find you , not easy to hide in Thailand when you're Burmese. So better to just stay calm and act like nothing has happened.

Good and valid counter Balo. If I may, I would like to do the same.

Physical stature

I have personally witness situations where a group of young Thai lads gang up on a sole victim. Not only have I witnessed this in Thailand, I have witnessed this in other parts of the world when I was growing up.

However, the circumstances were very different. Most of the time, these altercations happen as a result of gang warfare, a real or perceived slight or a revenge attack. They tend to be premeditated and planned out.

In the case of this attack on David, I find it hard to believe that the incentive is sufficiently strong for two small Burmese lads to want to attack and kill another person.

Bear in mind also that whilst this attack was supposedly happening, what's Hannah doing? Was she being held down by the other one or two guys that you are alluding too? If so, wouldn't this have come out in the "confession" of the B2?

Proper papers

How many days was it from the murders to the time they were apprehended? During that time, was the whole island on shutdown? (genuine question). Did any Burmese worker leave the island at any time between the murders and the arrest? If no Burmese worker was allowed to leave the island, then I would have no choice but to retract this part of my theory. However, if Burmese workers were allowed to leave...............

[Islandlife]

Really?

[Dogmatix]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

[changnaam]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

Remember way way back when the police had a 70% DNA match?

[DennisF]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

Remember way way back when the police had a 70% DNA match?

I remember, you remember, the social media network remembers but the RTP forgot. Case closed!

[changnaam]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

Remember way way back when the police had a 70% DNA match?

I remember, you remember, the social media network remembers but the RTP forgot. Case closed!

Why can credible organizations not question this? Stated as fact, "we have 70% DNA match" then swept under the carpet. Not as if it is speculation.

[ffaarraanngg]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

Remember way way back when the police had a 70% DNA match?

I remember, you remember, the social media network remembers but the RTP forgot. Case closed!

Why can credible organizations not question this? Stated as fact, "we have 70% DNA match" then swept under the carpet. Not as if it is speculation.

What is a 70% DNA match? I thought Chimpanzees DNA was more than 70% of a match.

Edited November 8, 2014 by ffaarraanngg

[changnaam]

The DNA test seems to have cleared any doubts about who the boy's father is. So that's something.

Remember way way back when the police had a 70% DNA match?

I remember, you remember, the social media network remembers but the RTP forgot. Case closed!

Why can credible organizations not question this? Stated as fact, "we have 70% DNA match" then swept under the carpet. Not as if it is speculation.

What is a 70% DNA match? I thought Chimpanzees DNA was more than 70% of a match.

Dunno mate, ask the RTP who stated they had a suspect with 70% DNA match to evidence found on the victim shortly before the case turned on its head. Maybe they can fill you in.

[ffaarraanngg]

Dunno mate, ask the RTP who stated they had a suspect with 70% DNA match to evidence found on the victim shortly before the case turned on its head. Maybe they can fill you in.

So if 70% match is all that is needed to be found guilty we should all be a little worried about the possibility of arrest.

As others have stated they were just going to brush this under the carpet as they have done with other murders on these group of Islands, they just weren't ready for the social media whipping up a storm.

[Thaddeus]

What is a 70% DNA match? I thought Chimpanzees DNA was more than 70% of a match.

Something to do with Gene Sequencing with regards to chimps, pigs and other life, I expect.

[ukrules]

What is a 70% DNA match? I thought Chimpanzees DNA was more than 70% of a match.

Something to do with Gene Sequencing with regards to chimps, pigs and other life, I expect.

With 70% certainty they might as well say that it's a mammal that did it.