Survey: Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs

[Lite Beer]

Survey: Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs

SONGKHLA, 27 Dec 2014 (NNT) - A study by Hatyai University has indicated that falling rubber prices and the ongoing flood disaster in the South not only have caused economic damage to the region but would also impair the educational opportunity of local people’s children.

Analysts found that the plunge in rubber prices had forced a number of Southern rubber farmers to resort to loan sharks, which would lead to problems of bad debts and extortion. Although part of the rubber growers tried to find a way out by switching to oil palm cultivation and cutting back on spending, their incomes are still not enough to cover their families’ expenses.

The analysts revealed the flood crisis had made the situation even worse, as many of Southern farmers had been unable to tap rubber trees for more than three months. They pointed out that the severe lack of incomes had forced the farmers’ children to drop out of school, despite the fact that some institutes had adjusted fee payment conditions to accommodate troubled parents. They added that the government’s student loans were not enough to meet the increasing demand.

The analysts acknowledged that solving the rubber price drop would take time, but suggested that the government urgently secure the educational opportunity for the children of rubber growers in a bid to return happiness to the rubber farmers in the South.

-- NNT 2014-12-27

[worgeordie]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

[EyesWideOpen]

My girlfriend's mother has a rubber plantation. She has ceased all production of

rubber, as the price is too low. Tough times for her. Part of the problem is the

time lag between planting saplings and getting paid for the rubber. It is 7 years,

so that makes it hard to predict the market . I suppose in the end she will cut

them all down to sell for the wood, and do something else with the land......

[rubl]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

You may be right about that 'saving for a rainy day'. Mind you I have no information on how 'good' things were with higher prices.'

[NeverSure]

I thought this was known the world over. If you don't plant annual crops you can't stay light on your feet. I understand that some Thai land is best used for rice, but if prices were bad enough a farmer could decide not to plant.

Yes he needs to save in the good times because farming is cyclical.

I knew guys who planted Poplar trees to sell to paper mills. It takes 20 years to grow the Poplars. Who can predict the economy that far in advance. We thought they were crazy. Frankly I never found out how they did but I still think they were crazy.

Fruit tree operators have the same issue. So do all kinds of nut trees.

Poplar tree grove planted for paper.

[bendejo]

When the price of rubber went great guns a few years ago it took everyone by surprise. Malaysia, which comes up with multi-year plans, did really well, as the plan for lifting rubber farmers out of poverty took care of itself, years before it was scheduled to. But I think a lot of the tappers in the region, including Thailand and Indonesia, put the money into down-payments on pickup trucks bought on credit etc. And now...

Sad situation for the farmers.

[DLock]

I have posted this graph before to show historical rubber prices over the last 5 years.

I would guess farmers planted a whole lot of new rubber trees as the market prices hit record highs...not just Thai farmers, but farmers worldwide.

Now, with rubber prices suffering from a slowdown in Chinese tyre production, warehouses full of rubber and vast oversupply, these new trees are not yet producing and it's hardly worth the effort to maintain them...which probably means another boom cycle in rubber prices in 5-7 years as farmers chop down trees, switch crops or just give up.

Farmers probably blew their savings on the new trees, or Toyota Vigo's thinking that the prices would last forever. I doubt many saved for a rainy day.

I don't know if its fair to blame farmers 100%, but I would hate to see a rubber scheme similar to the rice pledging scheme. Tough situation.

[thesetat2013]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

Not forgetting to mention that this years rain is no worse than past years for the monsoon season and they know it happens this time every year.

[schietkop]

Currency causes debt, not falling prices......

[Bigfarang1948]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

We started our farm almost 7 years ago and next year we will tap for the first time. For now, my family taps rubber trees for other farmers at a 60/40 pay rate. We make barely enough to cover expenses and if it was not for my retirement income I would hate to think how bad it would be for the family. My wife is worried that we will barely recover the costs we have incurred when we do start cutting. Our land is not level enough for planting palm oil trees so I guess we are stuck in a bad situation as are thousands of other farmers. Those who suggest the farmers should have saved for a rainy day obviously have not had to worry about paying their bills, putting food on the table daily, paying medical expenses, paying for food, paying for school, paying for gas and paying for utilities, paying for fertilizer for the trees, paying for labor to keep the underbrush cleared, etc. , but your hard heart is noted anyway. What happened to the Government raising the price of raw latex to sixty baht per kilo?. We sure could use it after selling rubber for less than 30 baht per kilo recently. My heart aches for these farmers and I am not holding my breath for a Gov't subsidy.

[ozyjon]

My thai girlfriend at the time of ''the spending frenzy'' i told her about the 7 year time lag,

i showed her the graph, meant nothing, just we buy land (note: WE) plant rubber trees

we will be rich, had no idea, had i gone along with it,,, n-o-w B b-r-o-k-e

a much better idea is to plant corn for ethanol,,or sausage trees.

[Thai at Heart]

I have little doubt that the middle men and manufacturers will be onlybto happy to relive the farmers of their newly matured rubber plantations. They will buy up zillions of rai for a song.

[HeijoshinCool]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs ….

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

[Thai at Heart]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs .

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

All of these people saying that the farmers could have predicted this, how many of us could have predicted crude oil prices going this low?

[selftaopath]

I thought this was known the world over. If you don't plant annual crops you can't stay light on your feet. I understand that some Thai land is best used for rice, but if prices were bad enough a farmer could decide not to plant.

Yes he needs to save in the good times because farming is cyclical.

I knew guys who planted Poplar trees to sell to paper mills. It takes 20 years to grow the Poplars. Who can predict the economy that far in advance. We thought they were crazy. Frankly I never found out how they did but I still think they were crazy.

Fruit tree operators have the same issue. So do all kinds of nut trees.

Poplar tree grove planted for paper.

download.jpg

I believe sugar cane farming has been and continues being quiet profitable. Growers around here seem to be doing very well financially.

[selftaopath]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs ….

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

Education is an essential ingredient to success. It doesn't seem to be valued in Thailand... by the masses. Hell kids are not in school most of the time (in a year) and even if they are what can they use to improve the quality of their lives?

[HeijoshinCool]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs .

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

All of these people saying that the farmers could have predicted this, how many of us could have predicted crude oil prices going this low?

.

I never said that. But everything runs in cycles; there are always good times and bad. The good times, for the wise, are meant to prepare for the bad.

When one is twenty, unless their parents or a mentor has taught them, one doesn't prepare. But by the time one is in midlife and has lived through the cycles, there's no excuse.

When rubber was up and the weather good, people in Rhek Thum ran out and bought new trucks. Then they brought them home and spent thousands on window tint and lowering the suspension and unbaffling the exhaust. They bought big TVs and mounted them on the wall opposite their front door, so everyone could see. We're talking about people in their forties and fifties.

But now I will make a prediction, Thai at Heart:

Bad times are coming. A lot worse than the tip of the iceberg we are seeing now. I'm getting ready.

[DLock]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

We started our farm almost 7 years ago and next year we will tap for the first time. For now, my family taps rubber trees for other farmers at a 60/40 pay rate. We make barely enough to cover expenses and if it was not for my retirement income I would hate to think how bad it would be for the family. My wife is worried that we will barely recover the costs we have incurred when we do start cutting. Our land is not level enough for planting palm oil trees so I guess we are stuck in a bad situation as are thousands of other farmers. Those who suggest the farmers should have saved for a rainy day obviously have not had to worry about paying their bills, putting food on the table daily, paying medical expenses, paying for food, paying for school, paying for gas and paying for utilities, paying for fertilizer for the trees, paying for labor to keep the underbrush cleared, etc. , but your hard heart is noted anyway. What happened to the Government raising the price of raw latex to sixty baht per kilo?. We sure could use it after selling rubber for less than 30 baht per kilo recently. My heart aches for these farmers and I am not holding my breath for a Gov't subsidy.

Timing is everything...

You planted when the price was high, and climbing.

You will tap when the price is low and falling.

It's not your fault. It's just bad timing. You never enjoyed the peak times.

But waiting for the Government to artificially raise the price is short term and not sustainable (think rice scheme).

Low prices will be around a while. There is far too much stockpile and oversupply by people who planted in the same time as you as the watched the price rise. You have years of low prices to contents with as new trees are coming on-line in huge numbers.

It's time for really tough choices. Be ahead of the curve, not behind it.

But I do feel for you. I don't know what I would do in the same circumstance. With the number of Farmers, I'm guessing the Government will do something to help, whether it be a co-op, loans, subsidies, mortgage scheme or financing.

Good luck Bigfarang.

[rickirs]

The Southern rubber farmers should place their well-being in Uncle Prayuth hands. He will do anything to keep the pro-royalist farmers happy.

Thus far, Gen. Prayuth has guaranteed a Bt60/kg price for rubber sheets while also providing farmers Bt1,000 per rai for up to 15 rai as a fertiliser subsidy, and 15 billion baht worth of soft loans to rubber tapper cooperatives. Unfortunately, the cost of production is Bt65/kg. Farmers have threatened new protests in January 2015 (they want Bt80-95/kg) so you can expect the government will make further concessions.

It's all about Junta politics and keeping power.

[DLock]

The price has been falling for 4 years consistently.

This has not happened overnight.

Farmers rode this wave all the way to the beach thinking/hoping/praying it would turn around.

It didn't require much thought to look at the trends and the reasons and say "crap, we better do something else before it gets much worse"...but instead they planted more trees or sat back and waited.

These farmers are not new players to rubber farming. Chances are they are generations of farmers. They've seen this cycle before.

I feel for them, but I hate farmers somehow blaming the government, protesting for higher prices and looking for handouts.

[bangon04]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

Yes they could introduce basic money management into the school curriculum and teach younger generation not to spend every satang in their pocket...

oops, guess the school dropout will make that difficult... another generation of spendthrift subsistence farmers....

[Thai at Heart]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs .

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

All of these people saying that the farmers could have predicted this, how many of us could have predicted crude oil prices going this low?

.

I never said that. But everything runs in cycles; there are always good times and bad. The good times, for the wise, are meant to prepare for the bad.

When one is twenty, unless their parents or a mentor has taught them, one doesn't prepare. But by the time one is in midlife and has lived through the cycles, there's no excuse.

When rubber was up and the weather good, people in Rhek Thum ran out and bought new trucks. Then they brought them home and spent thousands on window tint and lowering the suspension and unbaffling the exhaust. They bought big TVs and mounted them on the wall opposite their front door, so everyone could see. We're talking about people in their forties and fifties.

But now I will make a prediction, Thai at Heart:

Bad times are coming. A lot worse than the tip of the iceberg we are seeing now. I'm getting ready.

I think, with my meager experience that the only default position to hold is to expect is that the world will fall tomorrow and that the only employment guaranteed to make money in a good or bad business environment is a financier.

Either way, this commodity has plumetted and a few years ago, no one would have guessed it. No one. Not sure this will make a starving farmer feel any better.

[Time Traveller]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs .

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

All of these people saying that the farmers could have predicted this, how many of us could have predicted crude oil prices going this low?

Actually there were numerous warnings for years about the future for Rubber. Long term it is going to be replaced by synthethic products. But it doesn't matter whether people could or could not predict anything. I'd just like to know why tax payers should fit the bill for stupid loss making investments by others?

It might be reasonable to give some subsidies for rice growers - since food supply is of national importance - but rubber farmers brought this upon themselves.

[Thai at Heart]

Falling rubber price causes debts & school drop-outs .

It even leads to animal neglect and abuse.

Almost everyone in my wife's village works rubber. Most have now stopped feeding the dogs. Not even scraps. The dogs roam about scavenging, and fight more than ever. But no food does not mean no sex, and they still produce puppies like mad.

And dogs and cats are now being poisoned more than ever because people see them as pests. Get hungry enough and any dog will go after a chicken. Worst of all, last week a woman threw boiling oil on the face of a dog, because "it was on her front doorstep." The dog survived but is in terrible shape.

Old maxims are old for a reason. Odd how they are ignored by so many.

"Don't put all you eggs in one basket."

All of these people saying that the farmers could have predicted this, how many of us could have predicted crude oil prices going this low?

Actually there were numerous warnings for years about the future for Rubber. Long term it is going to be replaced by synthethic products. But it doesn't matter whether people could or could not predict anything. I'd just like to know why tax payers should fit the bill for stupid loss making investments by others?

It might be reasonable to give some subsidies for rice growers - since food supply is of national importance - but rubber farmers brought this upon themselves.

Yes. This idea of subsidising agricultural products which aren't for food consumption is an important distinction.

Latex isn't likelty to be replaced 100% with synthetics. what annoys me is that the middle men in this industry are all basically Thai companies. They should have advised the government to be careful about overcommitijgm

[Neeranam]

The rubber tappers obviously have never heard of saving for a raining day,

while the prices were very good they must have thought it would go on forever,

which anything rarely does, so now its pouring down they turn to the Govt. for

help.maybe the Govt needs to open a Ministry of how to manage your money,

on second thoughts that would not work,as Governments are worse than people

at managing the budgets.

regards worgeordie

We started our farm almost 7 years ago and next year we will tap for the first time. For now, my family taps rubber trees for other farmers at a 60/40 pay rate. We make barely enough to cover expenses and if it was not for my retirement income I would hate to think how bad it would be for the family. My wife is worried that we will barely recover the costs we have incurred when we do start cutting. Our land is not level enough for planting palm oil trees so I guess we are stuck in a bad situation as are thousands of other farmers. Those who suggest the farmers should have saved for a rainy day obviously have not had to worry about paying their bills, putting food on the table daily, paying medical expenses, paying for food, paying for school, paying for gas and paying for utilities, paying for fertilizer for the trees, paying for labor to keep the underbrush cleared, etc. , but your hard heart is noted anyway. What happened to the Government raising the price of raw latex to sixty baht per kilo?. We sure could use it after selling rubber for less than 30 baht per kilo recently. My heart aches for these farmers and I am not holding my breath for a Gov't subsidy.

Looks like you've been screwed. Many years ago my wife's family asked for money to start a fish farming business - I said sure but first I want you to write down the loan repayment plan, you projected profit and business plan for the next few years.

Guess what, they said," mai bpen rai ".

[harryfrompattaya]

Why do Farangs believe poor farmers daughter know anything about making money

They do not look at the track record of their new adviser

The new adviser are poor for a reason

[Neeranam]

Why do Farangs believe poor farmers daughter know anything about making money

They do not look at the track record of their new adviser

The new adviser are poor for a reason

There are different kinds of poor farmer's daughters. Living in Pattaya, you'll only come across one kind.

[HeijoshinCool]

The price has been falling for 4 years consistently.

This has not happened overnight.

Farmers rode this wave all the way to the beach thinking/hoping/praying it would turn around.

It didn't require much thought to look at the trends and the reasons and say "crap, we better do something else before it gets much worse"...but instead they planted more trees or sat back and waited.

These farmers are not new players to rubber farming. Chances are they are generations of farmers. They've seen this cycle before.

I feel for them, but I hate farmers somehow blaming the government, protesting for higher prices and looking for handouts.

.

My wife and I had a small garden, mostly in pots, in Rhek Thum. We worked it everyday. The locals gossiped that I was crazy farang and that we were poor. But we grew vegetables because we enjoyed it, they were organic, and the taste was better.

Now people have no money. Before I returned to the States in November, sometime about mid-June, we offered to share if the locals would take the empty lot across the street (owner offered) and grow even more. They could even resell to earn income.

No takers. Men sat on their porches all day, or had bird-singing contests, women visited other women. Many sold yaa-baa, until everyone was selling it and finally there were no more customers.

My wife and I tilled that lot. Amended the soil with stuff Thais throw away. Asked again.

No takers.

The men went to cow boxing, bet money they borrowed, trying to make money. The women gossiped how my wife had married poor farang. Said some very mean things.

We planted a row each of corn and tomatoes. About 5% of the space was used. Offered again. No takers.

When we harvested, my wife put the extra produce in a basket out front of her business.

Lots of takers.

Now the lot is once again overgrown, and everybody wants money from the government.

This is why the world is screwed up. Few really want to work anymore, when governments will bail them out.

ThaiLikeToo: Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

[German Viking]

I thought this was known the world over. If you don't plant annual crops you can't stay light on your feet. I understand that some Thai land is best used for rice, but if prices were bad enough a farmer could decide not to plant.

Yes he needs to save in the good times because farming is cyclical.

I knew guys who planted Poplar trees to sell to paper mills. It takes 20 years to grow the Poplars. Who can predict the economy that far in advance. We thought they were crazy. Frankly I never found out how they did but I still think they were crazy.

Fruit tree operators have the same issue. So do all kinds of nut trees.

Poplar tree grove planted for paper.

download.jpg

I believe sugar cane farming has been and continues being quiet profitable. Growers around here seem to be doing very well financially.

I would prefare sugar cane too, you can also produce some real good moonshine stuff too and this is sellable any time.