AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing

[Lite Beer]

AirAsia plane downed in Belitung waters: Reports
The Jakarta Post,

AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore is believed to have crashed at the location 03.22.46 South and 108.50.07 East, in waters around 145 kilometers from Belitung, a National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) official has said.

Basarnas Pangkalpinang spokesperson Supriandi said, as reported by Antara news agency on Sunday, that it had dispatched a rescue team to Belitung.

It is believed that the Airbus A320 had circled over the sea near Belitung to avoid a storm before it experienced severe turbulence and crashed into the ocean. QZ8502 is reported to have had 155 passengers on board, 16 of which were children

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/12/28/airasia-plane-downed-belitung-waters-reports.html

--Jakarta Post 2014-12-28

[jpinx]

AirAsia flight QZ8501: Pilot asked to fly at higher altitude to avoid clouds

JAKARTA (REUTERS) – The missing AirAsia Indonesia flight QZ8501 had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds, said an Indonesian official.

Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at the Transport Ministry, told a news conference that the aircraft was between the Indonesian port of Tanjung Pandan and the town of Pontianak, in West Kalimantan on Borneo island, when it went missing,

It was bound for Changi Airport in Singapore at 8.30am on Sunday.

-- Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-indonesia-flight-qz8501-pilot-asked-fly-higher-altitude-avoi#sthash.WTJeLBcM.dpuf

Clouds? Or were they attempting to "outclimb a thunderstorm", as someone on PPRuNe put it.

Can't be done. Thunderstorms can top out way higher than the plane can fly. The air above it would be nasty if not deadly.

I would have thought that 38,000 feet is at the very edge of this aircrafts maximum altitude, and reports that it was doing under 400knots describes a struggling steep climb to reach it, this would also have been under auto pilot control I believe - punch in new altitude and the AP does the rest - or is supposed to

I wonder is it possible the AP stalled the aircraft then control was lost and it broke up, I wonder if such a high altitude flight change is allowed by the AP or was this pilot error, who knows - just thinking out loud, any pilots on here confirm how these things are done on a modern aircraft

A couple of quick points....

The effect of lightning strikes is highly variable. I've had nothing more than burn holes in the fuselage and brown undies while others have had much more dramatic effects.

The anvil shape of the top of a thunderstorm is caused by the extreme winds of the jetstream above. Out-climbing a thunderstorm is a fool's errand.

An interesting chart of the seasonal variation in the jetstream...

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/553569-air-asia-indonesia-lost-contact-surabaya-singapore-5.html#post8799224

[OMGImInPattaya]

I hope it's not what we all fear; and if it is, it was human error or mechanical failure and not a deliberate act. Hopefully, there may be survivors. If the plane is "lost," I think this is a first for Air Asia...too bad for them but it had to happen sometime. Still a great airline, however.

[MaxYakov]

These planes have weather radar to identify potentially threatening weather situations so that they can be avoided. Was it operable (Is it on the Minimal Equipment List)? Was it being operated correctly? What is Air Asia's SOP for dealing with CBs? Would the crew have requested a flightpath change as well as an altitude change to avoid a CB? I know, I know - wait for the FDR, CVR and the Final Report.

Edited December 28, 2014 by MaxYakov

[NeverSure]

The anvil shape at the top of a thunderstorm is an indication the storm is dying. The strong up and downdrafts that cause the mushroom shape are relenting. It's still incredibly dangerous to get near it.

[george]

#AirAsia #QZ8501: No distress signal was sent, says Indonesian air transport director
http://bit.ly/1Ac1KJh

[jpinx]

It seems that wreckage has been found, so now all hopes are on finding liferafts with survivors

[NeverSure]

These planes have weather radar to identify potentially threatening weather situations so that they can be avoided. Was it operable (Is it on the Minimal Equipment List)? Was it being operated correctly? What is Air Asia's SOP for dealing with CBs? Would the crew have requested a flightpath change as well as an altitude change to avoid a CB? I know, I know - wait for the FDR, CVR and the Final Report.

I don't know. If center was reporting smoother air at a different altitude the pilot could request it. If there was also a thunderstorm ahead the pilot would ask for a change of heading too. None of this is unusual.

It's hard to think that the pilots of a modern commercial airliner would fly into a thunderstorm. They should have redundancy in the radar - one for each seat. Radar can see a thunderstorm because it's so dense with moisture.

I have suspected and posted about thunderstorm from the first look at the satellite picture which showed heavy thunderstorm activity, but in reality I have no idea what happened of course.

An earlier report here suggest that they circled for a while due to storms ahead. I hope they didn't get impatient and try to punch on through. Pilots call that "get home itis."

Edited December 28, 2014 by NeverSure

[BernieOnTour]

I recall years ago a plane deliberately going down in water just offshore so that rafts could reach land.

I didn't know that, the pilot must have been incredibly skilled (not to mention brave and heroic). No bodies have been found so far, so there is still hope for those aboard.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/year-anniversary-hudson-river-plane-crash-gallery-1.1579817

This example is for ditching inshore with nearly no waves.

If did not find any example of a successful offshore ditching an passenger aircraft in open sea. An aircraft is build for aerodynamics, not hydrodynamics. The waves, you will find most likely near a thunderstorm, will destroy it in an instant. Everyone, who has ever been on a speedboat knows that water can become hard as concrete if hitten with high speed, landing an A320 around 150 knots will tear it in pieces.

Edited December 28, 2014 by BernieOnTour

[Eric Loh]

Seem the plane lost contact about an hour after take off. That will probably put the location somewhere in Java Sea. Those who fly frequently between Indonesia and Singapore know well that this stretch has very regular serious turbulence especially during monsoon season. Pray plane be found safely. Already 2 Malaysian planes down this year. Hope this one will have no misadventure.

[draftvader]

The suggested last known location and the suspected crash location puts it outside our estimated 90-100km glide range by about 100-120km. This suggested the plane flew on for this distance under power (assuming all other information is correct). What circumstances could put a plane out of communication but still allow it to fly? My understanding is that if all radio is lost then navigation would be much more difficult, particularly in a storm. Could it be that the pilot was attempting to reach Belitung?

[jabis]

My condoleances to the families - I do not see a silver lining here

I'd start estimating the situation from the last known starting point, the plane was last reported climbing, but with an airspeed of 350 knots or less...

[lumply]

CB cells can exist at FL32 (approx 32,000ft) and certainly a 5nm seperation would nowhere near be sufficient enough to avoid severe turbulence and momentary loss of control of the aircraft, more like 25-50nm. It would be interesting to know what other pilots flying in the area were reporting. A sudden loss of a transponder signal or no apparent time for a 7700 Mayday code could indicate initially a catastrophic structural failure or other sudden de-pressurisation event.

[CharlieH]

Post commenting on Moderation removed.

Edit: Numerous posts have been removed for a variety of reasons as well as responses. This is a fast developing story, so please try to strictly stay on the topic.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Scott
Note added

[george]

If the worst should be true, not only will this be the first Airbus A320 accident since November 27th 2008, it will also be the first for AirAsia since they began flying in 1996.

[SantiSuk]

It seems that wreckage has been found, so now all hopes are on finding liferafts with survivors

Channel News Asia report that none of the reports of wreckage can be independently verified and none of the reports have suggested that locally reported sightings of wreckage are necessarily related to this flight. They advise people should wait for official reports.

[george]

Malaysia's transportation ministry says it is ready to help Indonesia and Singapore in search-and-rescue of #QZ8501.

[sunshine51]

^^^ George...

With all due respect...it's nice the Malaysians have offered to help however

this act doesn't really seem to instill any sense of confidence does it?

[sweatalot]

Asking for an unusual route causes a great deal of consternation and raises the inevitable question WHY?

has been answered a few times already

asking for unusual routes because of weather conditions happens quite often

[smedly]

I always assumed that avoiding clouds - storms - turbulence etc was for passenger comfort as opposed to a threat to the aircraft, not saying they are indestructible but I honestly believed it would take something in the extreme (tornado) to actually down one of these modern aircraft, maybe I'm wrong

History tells us that most if not all air accidents are caused by either pilot error - mechanical failure - or maintenance error, all of which point at a human in the chain, ok we have the odd situation of birds entering both engines or similar

[rayw]

The anvil shape at the top of a thunderstorm is an indication the storm is dying. The strong up and downdrafts that cause the mushroom shape are relenting. It's still incredibly dangerous to get near it.

Actually not true. For the record the anvil shape is the formation of ice crystals spreading out in the thinner colder air at the greater altitude, as I remember my physics I believe it is when it breaks through the tropopause. Normally as you climb higher the air gets progressively colder as the pressure drops though when you break through that tropopause layer the air will initially get warmer (though still very very cold up there of course) and this temperature inversion as it is called is what forms this tropopause layer. Once the powerful rising storm cell air column breaks through this layer with such force behind it and from below, then it will with such momentum of course rise rapidly and super freezes to form the ice crystals spreading out and thus forming the anvil shape we see. It takes a lot of upward force for the rising air to break through a strong tropopause layer and thus it cannot be an indication of the storm dying at all but clearly an indication of how strong and well established the storm most probably still is.

The mushroom appearance of CB clouds is in the lower area before the tropopause as once that billowing mushroom looking cloud breaks through only then does the familiar anvil shape referred to above appear. Whereas a dying storm cell is indicated by the ragged appearance of the clouds no longer being fed by the updraught of warmer moist air from below. Anyhow that is as I remember it from my much loved physics lessons years ago and also my later interest led study of meteorology, still in my younger days.

Anyway now lets get fully back on this sad news topic, and what of course really matters. As a very caring Atheist (not that it matters right now but yes caring is not the exclusive domain of religious folk you know and in my experience it is often a more prevalent trait with Atheists actually!!), I want to add that I am feeling very tearful and deeply saddened by this terrible incident. My thoughts and feelings go out to all the families and friends of these innocent folk who currently appear to have lost their lives so suddenly today in this tragedy. RIP to the poor victims, but let us still hang on to a slim hope that they all survived somehow, or at the very least that some of them may have. A very deeply sad day indeed.

We must of course all wait to hear the true cause, but I endorse what others here have said here in that the huge thunderstorm in the area seems pretty sure to be the primary or only cause of this terrible disaster.

Edited December 28, 2014 by rayw

[NeverSure]

The suggested last known location and the suspected crash location puts it outside our estimated 90-100km glide range by about 100-120km. This suggested the plane flew on for this distance under power (assuming all other information is correct). What circumstances could put a plane out of communication but still allow it to fly? My understanding is that if all radio is lost then navigation would be much more difficult, particularly in a storm. Could it be that the pilot was attempting to reach Belitung?

Believe it or not the planes still have the old fashioned non-electric navigation devices. They can be navigated with what's called "pilotage and dead reckoning."

The altimeter doesn't need power. It works on air pressure. So does the airspeed indicator. So does the manual compass work without power. Assuming the altimeter was adjusted for outside air pressure recently (barometric pressure) then it would be accurate.

The pilot will still have paper maps. He can get them out and choose his heading and fly toward it. The lower end private planes, especially some older ones have a minimum on board. I've seen a Piper Cub with nothing more than a compass, airspeed indicator, and altimeter. Of course it could fly only in clear weather.

If they just put the nose down enough to maintain proper speed in a glide, they are flying until they run out of altitude.

Edited December 28, 2014 by NeverSure

[george]

Briefing by BASARNAS (Indonesian National SAR).

Some info from Reuters:

AirAsia flight carrying 162 people goes missing in Southeast Asia: officials | Reuters

Quote:

Flight QZ8501 was between the Indonesian port of Tanjung Pandan and the town of Pontianak, in West Kalimantan province on Borneo island, when it went missing, Atmodjo told a news conference in Jakarta.

The aircraft had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds, he added.

[draftvader]

I have just mapped the co-ordinates for the sighted wreckage and the last location known from flightradar24 (a visual estimation, probably 10+-km accuracy) and have the following.

If those co-ordinates are correct then we it looks like the pilot was trying to make the airport on Belitung but ditched between 120 and 140km from the last known location which would fit with the suggested 90-100km with some tailwinds from the thunderstorm and increased altitude. Again, just interpreting data as it is presented. Does look to fit. Time will tell.

[Lite Beer]

Bad weather forced lost AirAsia plane to change flight path: ATC

An AirAsia plane with 162 people on board went missing in bad weather en route from Indonesia to Singapore Sunday morning, the airline said, in the third crisis for a Malaysian carrier this year.

Air traffic controllers lost contact with the Airbus A320-200 around an hour after it left Juanda international airport in Surabaya in east Java at 5:20am.

It was scheduled to arrive in Singapore at 8:30am (0030 GMT).

Shortly before disappearing the aircraft asked permission from air traffic control in Jakarta to track away from its flight plan and climb above adverse weather.

The pilots requested "deviation due to enroute weather before communication with the aircraft was lost while it was still under the control of the Indonesian Air Traffic Control (ATC)," AirAsia said in a statement on its Facebook page.

The airline said 156 of those on the flight were Indonesians, along with three South Koreans and one person each from Singapore, Malaysia and France also missing.

On board were 138 adult passengers, 16 children and an infant, in addition to the two pilots and five cabin crew.

The Indonesian air force said two of its planes had been dispatched to scour an area of the Java Sea, southwest of Pangkalan Bun in Kalimantan province.

"The weather is cloudy and the area is surrounded by sea. We are still on our way so we won't make an assumption on what happened to the plane," said Indonesian air force spokesman Hadi Cahyanto.

The aircraft was operated by AirAsia Indonesia, a unit of Malaysian-based AirAsia which dominates Southeast Asia's booming low cost airline market.



- Search and rescue -



An official from Indonesia's transport ministry said the pilot asked to ascend 6,000 feet to 38,000 feet to avoid heavy clouds.

"The plane is in good condition but the weather is not so good," Djoko Murjatmodjo told a press conference at Jakarta's airport, addressing reports of severe storms in the area where the jet went missing.

Murjatmodjo said search efforts were being focused on an area between Belitung island and Kalimantan, on the western side of the island of Borneo, about halfway along the expected route of Flight QZ8501.

Singapore has offered help from its navy and air force in the hunt for the plane.

The White House said US President Barack Obama had been briefed on the disappearance and that it was monitoring the situation.

Indonesia, a vast archipelago with poor land transport infrastructure, has seen an explosive growth of low-cost air travel over recent years.

But the air industry has been blighted by poor safety standards in an area that also experiences extreme weather -- although AirAsia said the missing jet last underwent maintenance on November 16.

The company swiftly replaced its bright red logo to a grey background on its social media pages.

The plane's disappearance comes at the end of a disastrous year for Malaysian aviation.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, carrying 239 people, vanished in March after inexplicably diverting from its Kuala Lumpur-Beijing course. No trace of the aircraft has been found.

Just months later another Malaysia Airlines plane went down in July in rebellion-torn eastern Ukraine -- believed to have been hit by a surface-to-air missile -- killing all 298 aboard.

Malaysia Airlines posted a message of support to AirAsia on its Twitter page, saying: "Our thoughts and prayers are with all family and friends of those on board QZ8501", along with the hashtag "stay strong".

AirAsia, Asia's budget travel leader, is led by flamboyant boss Tony Fernandes, a former record industry executive who acquired the then-failing airline in 2001.

It has seen spectacular success and aggressive growth under his low-cost, low-overhead model.

While its rival Malaysia Airlines faces potential collapse after two disasters this year, AirAsia confirmed this month its order of 55 A330-900neo passenger planes at a list price of $15 billion.

Source: http://www.thephuketnews.com/bad-weather-forced-lost-airasia-plane-to-change-flight-path-atc-50336.php

-- Phuket News 2014-12-28

[NeverSure]

The anvil shape at the top of a thunderstorm is an indication the storm is dying. The strong up and downdrafts that cause the mushroom shape are relenting. It's still incredibly dangerous to get near it.

Actually not true. For the record the anvil shape is the formation of ice crystals spreading out in the thinner colder air at the greater altitude, as I remember my physics I believe it is when it breaks through the tropopause. Normally as you climb higher the air gets progressively colder as the pressure drops though when you break through that tropopause layer the air will initially get warmer (though still very very cold up there of course) and this temperature inversion as it is called is what forms this tropopause layer. Once the powerful rising storm cell air column breaks through this layer with such force behind it and from below, then it will with such momentum of course rise rapidly and super freezes to form the ice crystals spreading out and thus forming the anvil shape we see. It takes a lot of upward force for the rising air to break through a strong tropopause layer and thus it cannot be an indication of the storm dying at all but clearly an indication of how strong and well established the storm most probably still is.

The mushroom appearance of CB clouds is in the lower area before the tropopause as once that billowing mushroom looking cloud breaks through only then does the familiar anvil shape referred to above appear. Whereas a dying storm cell is indicated by the ragged appearance of the clouds no longer being fed by the updraught of warmer moist air from below. Anyhow that is as I remember it from my much loved physics lessons years ago and also my later interest led study of meteorology, still in my younger days.

Anyway now lets get fully back on this sad news topic, and what of course really matters. As a very caring Atheist (not that it matters right now but yes caring is not the exclusive domain of religious folk you know and in my experience it is often a more prevalent trait with Atheists actually!!), I want to add that I am feeling very tearful and deeply saddened by this terrible incident. My thoughts and feelings go out to all the families and friends of these innocent folk who currently appear to have lost their lives so suddenly today in this tragedy. RIP to the poor victims, but let us still hang on to a slim hope that they all survived somehow, or at the very least that some of them may have. A very deeply sad day indeed.

We must of course all wait to hear the true cause, but I endorse what others here have said here in that the huge thunderstorm in the area seems pretty sure to be the primary or only cause of this terrible disaster.

That's interesting. Of all of the ground school I had I was always taught different. Not that it matters because I'd steer far clear of it. But I just looked it up and you're right.

[JOC]

In the midst of all the technical posts here, let us not forget, that 162 human beings have probably lost their lives!!

[Lite Beer]

RT @tonyfernandes: On my way to Surabaya where most of the passengers are from as with my Indonesian management. Providing information as we get it.

[BKKBrit]

If the worst should be true, not only will this be the first Airbus A320 accident since November 27th 2008, it will also be the first for AirAsia since they began flying in 1996.

First serious incident yes..but no less an incident and they have had an issue with an A320 before - Jan 11th 2011 in Kuching. And one of their now discontinued 737s also did a boo-boo.

[daveAustin]

Terrible. Just hope it was quick for them.