mikemac Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Tourism is just a blip to Thailand GDA I dunno why most foreigners jump on the bandwagon and think they are gods gift to the Thai Economy. Thailand baht is still strong, no recession looming yet, and if there was - it certainly wouldnt be due to some tourists that stopped coming. Tourism is about 7-8% of GDP. Tourism and related business is about 24% of the GDP. In the 8% you mention is not included infrastructure works and long time visitors due to their first visit as tourist. Also money brought in cash and spend in the bars , after that spend by the bar girls to build houses up country and supporting local economy over there is not included in you 8%.nor is the building and construction of condo's included. So if you do the full mats, i think its even more than 24%. crap............................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smew Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Poor declining economy and Thai jet ski rip offs, murders etc added as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 According to Knoema, the Travel & Tourism Total Contribution to GDP - % share for this year 2014 is 17%. The average for the past 12 years is 16.66%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThailandLOS Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Yep its the combination of the US and EU sanctions enforced on them,,, And it is working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 According to Knoema, the Travel & Tourism Total Contribution to GDP - % share for this year 2014 is 17%. The average for the past 12 years is 16.66%. That sounds fair enough. 8 is too low, 24 too much. But with all the associated services and the black economy I can easily believe 17%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryfrompattaya Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Ha Ha don't you know America ruin Russia with a 3 letter word OIL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Yep its the combination of the US and EU sanctions enforced on them,,, And it is working sure it's working! yesterday the Crimea was returned and today all ethnic Russian troublemakers have started to leave the Ukraine rumour has it that Putin goes into exile and is planning to set up a Russian restaurant in Hua Hin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Yep its the combination of the US and EU sanctions enforced on them,,, And it is working sure it's working! yesterday the Crimea was returned and today all ethnic Russian troublemakers have started to leave the Ukraine rumour has it that Putin goes into exile and is planning to set up a Russian restaurant in Hua Hin. Thats not what I have heard,,, They said that he was starting a used bike shop at Sukhumvit soy 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitsune Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Who writes these articles? Im not a native speaker and I could certainly do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Who writes these articles? Im not a native speaker and I could certainly do better I hope you are not another humour- less txxt trying to impress , My view is that many of the forums have no light hearted humour.Any funny crack is always put down by some old crock . Also many of us are not native,speakers So I suggest if you can do better do it, and dont become a bathroom door toss pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgenon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Funny I have not read about China losing their tourism from Russia? Perhaps this is just another blame brought on by TAT for their excuses. I know Russia has some financial troubles. But this is not affecting the new tourist's that cone here Lets think this through together. The Baht is pegged to the dollar and the rouble has lost %50 relative to the dollar. So that means.......? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janpharma Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howiehotspur Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Will this help me obtain my pension visa easier , now that they are keen for replacements lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitsune Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Who writes these articles? Im not a native speaker and I could certainly do better I hope you are not another humour- less txxt trying to impress , My view is that many of the forums have no light hearted humour.Any funny crack is always put down by some old crock . Also many of us are not native,speakers So I suggest if you can do better do it, and dont become a bathroom door toss pot Somewhere there must be some folks that understand this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christie Paul Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 (edited) I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Yep its the combination of the US and EU sanctions enforced on them,,, And it is working It's not working. The real measure of an economy is its wealth. Unlike the US and Europe, Russia does not have massive debts, it actually has a massive surplus. Not only a massive surplus, but even with oil tanking in price, they manage a large ongoing trade surplus. The Ruble, is it's token fiat currency, not a metric of wealth, which was hit by speculators, which has not effected Russia's real wealth i.e vast amounts of gold, foreign reserves and perhaps the worlds greatest repository of mineral and oil wealth. And they have a military with state of the art nuclear capacity. The US and NATO has so far only proven useful in the humanitarian bombing of defenceless countries. Russia is something else, good luck wit that. The overthrow of the democratically elected government of the Ukraine and the subsequent installation of a fascist western puppet regime and the attack on the Ruble was perhaps done in the hope for a regime change in Russia. And that looks most unlikely. Despite the fact that common Russians have been hit hard by these manoeuvres, they are way too tough and too familiar with real politik to be so easily manipulated. But it gets worse for the West. Crimea broke free from the Ukranian fascists and is now reunited back to its historical place with Russia. And Russia keeps its naval base and easy access to the Mediterranean. A total fiasco. The Southstream pipeline of Russian gas, won't go to Europe now, that will teach the Russians! Ok says Putin, we'll ship our gas through Turkey. If the Europeans want cheap gas, let them pay extra for it via Turkey. The Europeans have driven a wedge between themselves, NATO and cheap gas in one shot and now will have to negotiate with Erdogan. Nightmare. Far from being isolated, China with the worlds largest foreign reserves is grateful to Russia for keeping the west occupied with the stupidity in the Ukraine, whilst it buys up the world and gives an assurance to Russia that it will collaborate on currency swaps and soft development loans etc. What I don't understand is, why is the west committing economic suicide? . Edited December 29, 2014 by Christie Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paz Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What I don't understand is, why is the west committing economic suicide? I've read all your rant. Fact is, as of today food and goods are on the tables of westerners but not Russians. When it will be the opposite, you will be right. In the meantime, enjoy times of growing prosperity (according to your predictions) in Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddyjenkins Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 (edited) Tourism is just a blip to Thailand GDA I dunno why most foreigners jump on the bandwagon and think they are gods gift to the Thai Economy. Thailand baht is still strong, no recession looming yet, and if there was - it certainly wouldnt be due to some tourists that stopped coming. Tourism is about 7-8% of GDP. Officially........Many long term expats think the number is closer to 20 % . I can assure you that all the two story homes built in Nakon Nowhere by farangs, and the millions of baht sent to support their darlings, is certainly not a part of the official tourist income. Nor is the umpteem million baht paid to girls for sex a part of that 7% number. In fact I am not even sure where that number comes from.... agree that the overall contribution from foreigners to the GDP from Thailand is more than 7-8%. But bear in mind that contribution of foreigners to Thai GDP is not equal Tourism in Thailand. There are many foreigners in Thailand who have invested in business here, built factories here, retire here or just live here, all of that is not counted as tourism in the GDP numbers.In economics people talk about multipliers which boost the direct contribution a sector makes to its economy. In the case of tourism which in direct terms contributes about 10% ish to GDP the additional multiplier is probably very high because many workers in tourism are in a low income sector and not only spend every baht of what they keep of what they earn but also support their families, who also then spend every baht they receive. The real contribution of tourism to the Thai GDP is probably closer to 20% according to research I have seen. This means if makes up a fifth of the Thai economy. I doubt many Thai politicians know this or understand the consequences of their actions within this context. Edited December 29, 2014 by paddyjenkins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christie Paul Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 What I don't understand is, why is the west committing economic suicide? I've read all your rant. Fact is, as of today food and goods are on the tables of westerners but not Russians. When it will be the opposite, you will be right. In the meantime, enjoy times of growing prosperity (according to your predictions) in Russia. You are right in a way. The Europeans have food all right...an estimated 12 billion dollars worth of projected per annum of small goods, produce and would you believe cheese, that used to go to Russia, that now as a result of sanctions won't. So the Russians now buy from South America and will just have to learn how to make their own cheese. As for goods, your kind of right again. But those 6000 German companies that rely on trade with Russia are not so happy about it. Then who will supply Russia with goods? Perhaps their new biggest trading partner, China. I'm no Russophile, but I do make an attempt to research and understand what is happening. If I'm factually incorrect on any point or if I've omitted something important, I welcome correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert24 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 In economics people talk about multipliers which boost the direct contribution a sector makes to its economy. In the case of tourism which in direct terms contributes about 10% ish to GDP the additional multiplier is probably very high because many workers in tourism are in a low income sector and not only spend every baht of what they keep of what they earn but also support their families, who also then spend every baht they receive. The real contribution of tourism to the Thai GDP is probably closer to 20% according to research I have seen. This means if makes up a fifth of the Thai economy. I doubt many Thai politicians know this or understand the consequences of their actions within this context. agree with the multiplier effect, you see this in everything, be it from manufacturing, to big infrastructure investment and also tourism. So to give you an example. If a worker in the tourist sector earns money and spends the money to build a house somewhere, then the money spent on building the house would be counted in under construction and not tourism in the GDP calculation. Another example. If a worker goes to Chonburi and works in a car factory and earns money from there which he spends on food and restaurants, then the money from food and restaurants wouldn't be counted in under Manufacturing in the GDP calculation. Hope this helps understanding it how GDP is calculated when broken up in sector. Of course the multiplier effect works also in the opposite direction, i.e. if factories lay off people it's not just the manufacturing sector in the GDP calculation that will suffer, obviously the same people have less money disposable on other goods, i.e. restaurants, food etc. So a theoretical contraction of GDP of 1% in the tourism sector, may well lead to an overall GDP impact of -2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beetlejuice Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Does this mean that the Russian economic crisis could result in the end of Pattaya as we know it? There is hope for Thailand yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berybert Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Russians will continue to feel the pinch until march of next year.................... Well I for one am happy Thailand knows WHO IS WHAT IS WERE in world news. So 3 more moths and CHA CHA CHA will sort out the ruble. Any other countries need a hand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookee68 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 one minute they hate the Russians, then the next minute they miss them, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish fingers Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Less Russians.... Gotta be good News.. Your in depth analysis is based on what?? based on less russians being good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjcampbe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Funny I have not read about China losing their tourism from Russia? Perhaps this is just another blame brought on by TAT for their excuses. I know Russia has some financial troubles. But this is not affecting the new tourist's that cone here Actually there was a long segment on al jezera last night on the tourism impact in china due to the falling ruble. But Thailand has created its own perfect storm of issues on top of the Russian currency issue. I don't have much confidence in the forecasts for improvement in the tourism sector or the overall Thai economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddyjenkins Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) In economics people talk about multipliers which boost the direct contribution a sector makes to its economy. In the case of tourism which in direct terms contributes about 10% ish to GDP the additional multiplier is probably very high because many workers in tourism are in a low income sector and not only spend every baht of what they keep of what they earn but also support their families, who also then spend every baht they receive. The real contribution of tourism to the Thai GDP is probably closer to 20% according to research I have seen. This means if makes up a fifth of the Thai economy. I doubt many Thai politicians know this or understand the consequences of their actions within this context. agree with the multiplier effect, you see this in everything, be it from manufacturing, to big infrastructure investment and also tourism. So to give you an example. If a worker in the tourist sector earns money and spends the money to build a house somewhere, then the money spent on building the house would be counted in under construction and not tourism in the GDP calculation. Another example. If a worker goes to Chonburi and works in a car factory and earns money from there which he spends on food and restaurants, then the money from food and restaurants wouldn't be counted in under Manufacturing in the GDP calculation.Hope this helps understanding it how GDP is calculated when broken up in sector. Of course the multiplier effect works also in the opposite direction, i.e. if factories lay off people it's not just the manufacturing sector in the GDP calculation that will suffer, obviously the same people have less money disposable on other goods, i.e. restaurants, food etc. So a theoretical contraction of GDP of 1% in the tourism sector, may well lead to an overall GDP impact of -2%. Ummm.....I don't need your education.....I know what a multiplier effect is and I know what GDP is and how it is calculated Edited December 30, 2014 by paddyjenkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Less Russians.... Gotta be good News.. Your in depth analysis is based on what?? based on less russians being good news today, dear children, we meet a grandmaster of logical discussion and argumentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespunk Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I like this thread, first one where the Americans aren't somehow to blame! Fantastic LOL Hold your horses. Who do you think made the rouble take a plunge in the first place? Yep its the combination of the US and EU sanctions enforced on them,,, And it is working Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Who writes these articles? Im not a native speaker and I could certainly do better I hope you are not another humour- less txxt trying to impress , My view is that many of the forums have no light hearted humour.Any funny crack is always put down by some old crock . Also many of us are not native,speakers So I suggest if you can do better do it, and dont become a bathroom door toss pot a bathroom door toss pot ! What the............................??? I'm writing that one down ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinBoy2 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Who writes these articles? Im not a native speaker and I could certainly do better I hope you are not another humour- less txxt trying to impress , My view is that many of the forums have no light hearted humour.Any funny crack is always put down by some old crock . Also many of us are not native,speakers So I suggest if you can do better do it, and dont become a bathroom door toss pot a bathroom door toss pot ! What the............................??? I'm writing that one down ! I have to admit it, that one got be rushing to the urban dictionary for clarification. Couldn't get the bathroom door bit, but here's tosspot... http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=tosspot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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