40 bodies have been recovered in the search for the missing AirAsia plane

[Sviss Geez]

Just amazing how many air-sea rescue experts there are on ThaiVisa slagging off the real experts trying to do a very difficult job.

I don't think it is the real experts that need slagging off, but the politicians and bureaucrats that get in the way of these people getting out and doing their job.

Do you think I said the real experts need slagging off? Read it again

The only people that need slagging off are the TV bashers who seem to have nothing better to do than to criticise eveything and they deserve a good slagging.

[sweatalot]

I'm confused. I have just seen images of a near naked person from the crash site. How could that happen unless the person had taken their clothes off? I've got a horrible feeling that the people they are finding made it out. Could this mean that there are some alive? I am finding it hard to say this as the plane has been discovered SO close to the last known point of contact but I am puzzled to find a person nearly naked, an emergency raft/slide and a door.

If the aircraft broke up in midflight, clothes will be stripped from the bodies of passengers as happened when MH17 was brought down over Ukraine.

However, if as has been reported that a 'shadow' of the plane has been spotted on the seabed, then that would suggest the aircraft landed intact, or at least some attempt at landing was made by the captain. Given though that there were severe storms in the area, a smooth landing on the surface is probably out of the question unfortunately.

It will depend on how the aircraft behaved when it hit the water that will determine what forces a human body was subjected to and could explain why some bodies have been recovered partially naked.

It's a little odd though that the bodies which have been recovered weren't attached to seats as would have been the case if they had been strapped in. That would suggest that some of them at least had time to get out. But why then did they die?

But why then did they die?

Exhaustion? Waiting too long for rescue? Water temperature? Sudden air pressure difference?

Edited December 30, 2014 by sweatalot

[Mosha]

Permission to climb not given but it was climbing but speed was too low in those conditions according to an ATC friend. A massive up draft causing a stall? Flipping the aircraft over? That may explain the short distance to the wreckage, Some reports of smoke on a nearby island, Unconfirmed

[chrisinth]

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QUOTE :

"The Jawa Post reported that a body in a white T-shirt and orange life jacket had been identified, while Kompas TV quoted the co-pilot of a spotter aircraft as saying that floating objects resembled humans, suitcases and aircraft debris."

Sounds like some of them may have made it out, in which case how many may have been saved if not for the initial delays?

Poor souls.

My thoughts exactly. I couldn't believe that i read a report on the first day that they were recalling planes and ships before resuming the search the next morning. I hope that report had been misinterpreted.

Flying ops i can understand, but to recall a surface search vessel, that would have to make up the returned leg again the next day to get to the search area....................

[englishoak]

Im afraid the Indonesian Authorities have probably been aware of the location for some time, most likely looking for survivors to give some good news before going public.

Still dosnt excuse the wasted time in the first few hours, not that its any surprise in Asia these days.

Being aware of the location and not going there? How could they find survivors then?

Wreckage was spotted yesterday and on Indonesia TV following the sighting of a slick the day previous, be assured the Indonesian Navy have been in that area searching since at least yesterday.

[Sirpia]

36 hours later a plane spots debris right over the spot where the plane lost communication, mean while 30 ships have been searching 10,000 square miles yet never thought to look in the place it was lost. 36 wasted hours, the mind boggles.

Within six miles of last known location, <deleted>, Its is hard to believe the search didnt start here and work out.

i know, its mind boggling that its taken nearly 3 days

The average TV poster would have found them before the plane hit the water, transferred to the plane via cable, fixed the issue, then landed the plane safely at it's intended destination, albeit 20 minutes behind schedule.

[chrisinth]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

36 hours later a plane spots debris right over the spot where the plane lost communication, mean while 30 ships have been searching 10,000 square miles yet never thought to look in the place it was lost. 36 wasted hours, the mind boggles.

Within six miles of last known location, <deleted>, Its is hard to believe the search didnt start here and work out.

Sad for the people who died......And am puzzled by them finding the plane 6 miles from

point of last contact. Seems that would have been the first place they looked. Am I

missing something here ?? Two and a half days later they finally look there ?? Sure

hope nobody died while waiting in the water. :-(

I am reading that the search area was established on the assumption of available airspeed based on dead reckon (DR).

If this is the case, then it has been a tragic oversight.

Just as a thought, it appears that some kind of controlled landing was attempted judging by the debris identified (door, chute, etc) and by the bodies in the water. i believe one was wearing a life jacket?

I don't think this would be typical of a crash, only six miles from the point of last communication.

Condolences to all the families of the victims.

[sunshine51]

@ Dcutman & EwO...

I'm not a SAR expert, however I used to pilot a T-28 quite a bit in my younger days in all sorts of fine weather except a couple nasty squalls in the PI which happen quite often & made me appreciate what my instructor & his evil ways taught me. That said I do know a few SAR crews and have high respect for them and what they do in all sorts of weather...especially when sane flight crews wouldn't venture outside any hangar.

From a T-28 pilots POV in a squall...trying to keep aloft when your altitude & roll is all over the place, save for where you want it to be, is quite a task. The same can apply to a C-130 or a P-3 at any altutude and believe me you don't ever want to be down low; as Dcutman said...3-400 meters! That would be sheer suicide, especially if a nasty wind shear slammed you into the water or land. You're better off higher if possible to get there safely. If not you don't fly and wait for the weather to "clear"...in a sense, not meaning blue skies either...just a bit less "bumpy" and not so opaque when you need to look out the windows to spot a basketball sized object from say 500 meters altitude...nearly impossible on a calm sunny day even. There are many more variables and they can change in an instant, especially if the weather is similar to the graphic I posted. One main rule of SAR is to never allow yourself and your vessel (air or sea) to become another reason to launch more SAR assets. Plus...not every nation on this planet has the latest SAR gadgets on their aircraft or ships that make looking for a small object(s) on the sea surface much easier...such as LIDAR or NIR gear or special radars etc.

Many nations just have crew with fairly decent eyeballs. BTW most radars cannot differentiate objects on the surface from sea returns on the radar operators display when in clear weather...let alone in a storm. One needs a radar specifically designed for SAR work (Google). SAR ain't easy, no walk in the park on a sunny

day with the GF. It's hard work, very tiring, extremely monotonous verging on heavy boredom and many times fruitless. Hell even the men & women who fly on purpose into typhoons & hurricanes...sometimes end up needing SAR and of these times...some are never found...even though this is few & far between.

Anybody can scold or question why it took so long to launch SAR crews and why their first choice of places to look was where they did look and I reckon there's as many reasons for this as there are certified SAR crews on the planet. But you must remember...the SAR crews had only last position and that position may not have been that accurate in the first place. Remember...the entire area is a massive thunderstorm factory when the weather turns to shit and the winds can toss an aluminum tube almost anywhere...not just straight down as many would think.

Unless you have ever been in an aircraft in near 0/0 visibility whilst being tossed every which way and other ways...you will not understand...you will ever understand. When the turbulence you feel in that big commercial 747 or 777 or whatever seems a bit "bumpy"...and you get a tad bit nervous & fasten that seat belt...remember,

it can get much worse...at any time...much worse.

The SAR crews in Indo have done a great job IMO...weather considered...had it been a sunny day then I'd feel differently. Had it been a sunny day perhaps QZ8501 would have safely arrived in Singapore. But it wasn't a fine day. It was shit weather all over the region. Don't blame the SAR crew...point the poopy finger at the ATC centre who cleared em for flight and the corporate greed that most likely ensured they got airborne. And while at it...condemn Indo ATC for cocking up clearances for altitude and storm avoidance. The pilot was very experienced...geeze he once flew F-16's for quite a while and so far as is known...had a perfect flying record.

Regarding SAR...here's an experiment for you...take your gold necklace, if you don't have one go out & buy one, grab a friend and go out to an open field that is at least a hectare square. Be sober. Close your eyes or have said friend blindfold you then toss your gold necklace far over your shoulder (backwards so you can't see/hear where it lands). Keeping the blindfold on or your eyes closed have your friend spin you around till dizzy. Remove the blindfold/open your eyes and go look for that necklace. Not easy is it.

That's what SAR is like most times.

[BernieOnTour]

I've watched a lot of the air crash investigator TV shows and the fact that they lost communication so suddenly means they most have had some sort of catastrophic incident where it was impossible for the pilots to make any further contact with the air traffic controllers. This is usually caused structural failure such as is caused by a bomb, pilots losing consciousness ect. I feel for the people waiting for their loved ones most be truly horrific. I had to change my Emirates flight once when they found a hydraulic problem and I don't mind admitting I was shitting myself and my inner voice was telling me to get up and leave if the engineer decided the plane was okay to fly.

I think pilots say 1st thing you try to do is fly the plane. They may not had had time

Pilots have a similar rule to us yachties, if hit by an unforseeable emergency: first aviate, then navigate, then communicate.

In certain situations -and I assume especially in emergency situations in air, where high g-forces apply and it can get rough in seconds- you first try to do your best to save your vessel and your passengers. Why loose even 10% of your brain capacity for communication, if it does not help anyway - no contact to an Air Traffic Control Officer could help them out of their severe situation, there is no remote flight stick in ATC... This is a typical TV journalist question, who assume, news are more important than real life.

[draftvader]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

[dcutman]

@ Dcutman & EwO...

I'm not a SAR expert, however I used to pilot a T-28 quite a bit in my younger days in all sorts of fine weather except a couple nasty squalls in the PI which happen quite often & made me appreciate what my instructor & his evil ways taught me. That said I do know a few SAR crews and have high respect for them and what they do in all sorts of weather...especially when sane flight crews wouldn't venture outside any hangar.

From a T-28 pilots POV in a squall...trying to keep aloft when your altitude & roll is all over the place, save for where you want it to be, is quite a task. The same can apply to a C-130 or a P-3 at any altutude and believe me you don't ever want to be down low; as Dcutman said...3-400 meters! That would be sheer suicide, especially if a nasty wind shear slammed you into the water or land. You're better off higher if possible to get there safely. If not you don't fly and wait for the weather to "clear"...in a sense, not meaning blue skies either...just a bit less "bumpy" and not so opaque when you need to look out the windows to spot a basketball sized object from say 500 meters altitude...nearly impossible on a calm sunny day even. There are many more variables and they can change in an instant, especially if the weather is similar to the graphic I posted. One main rule of SAR is to never allow yourself and your vessel (air or sea) to become another reason to launch more SAR assets. Plus...not every nation on this planet has the latest SAR gadgets on their aircraft or ships that make looking for a small object(s) on the sea surface much easier...such as LIDAR or NIR gear or special radars etc.

Many nations just have crew with fairly decent eyeballs. BTW most radars cannot differentiate objects on the surface from sea returns on the radar operators display when in clear weather...let alone in a storm. One needs a radar specifically designed for SAR work (Google). SAR ain't easy, no walk in the park on a sunny

day with the GF. It's hard work, very tiring, extremely monotonous verging on heavy boredom and many times fruitless. Hell even the men & women who fly on purpose into typhoons & hurricanes...sometimes end up needing SAR and of these times...some are never found...even though this is few & far between.

Anybody can scold or question why it took so long to launch SAR crews and why their first choice of places to look was where they did look and I reckon there's as many reasons for this as there are certified SAR crews on the planet. But you must remember...the SAR crews had only last position and that position may not have been that accurate in the first place. Remember...the entire area is a massive thunderstorm factory when the weather turns to shit and the winds can toss an aluminum tube almost anywhere...not just straight down as many would think.

Unless you have ever been in an aircraft in near 0/0 visibility whilst being tossed every which way and other ways...you will not understand...you will ever understand. When the turbulence you feel in that big commercial 747 or 777 or whatever seems a bit "bumpy"...and you get a tad bit nervous & fasten that seat belt...remember,

it can get much worse...at any time...much worse.

The SAR crews in Indo have done a great job IMO...weather considered...had it been a sunny day then I'd feel differently. Had it been a sunny day perhaps QZ8501 would have safely arrived in Singapore. But it wasn't a fine day. It was shit weather all over the region. Don't blame the SAR crew...point the poopy finger at the ATC centre who cleared em for flight and the corporate greed that most likely ensured they got airborne. And while at it...condemn Indo ATC for cocking up clearances for altitude and storm avoidance. The pilot was very experienced...geeze he once flew F-16's for quite a while and so far as is known...had a perfect flying record.

Regarding SAR...here's an experiment for you...take your gold necklace, if you don't have one go out & buy one, grab a friend and go out to an open field that is at least a hectare square. Be sober. Close your eyes or have said friend blindfold you then toss your gold necklace far over your shoulder (backwards so you can't see/hear where it lands). Keeping the blindfold on or your eyes closed have your friend spin you around till dizzy. Remove the blindfold/open your eyes and go look for that necklace. Not easy is it.

That's what SAR is like most times.

Ok, lets look at the weather when the plane went down.

Obviously thunder storms move, what was the weather like a few hours after this event? I cant find anything, It could have been worse or it could have been much better, I dont know. In any case how about day Two? We are on day three now. I am not blaming the SAR crews. But somebody screwed the pootch some where.

I also believe the c-130 is quite capable at four or 500 meters in just about any weather condition, after all, low altitude missions was what is was designed for.

Edited December 30, 2014 by dcutman

[balo]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

Interesting , what is your source ?

[bangon04]

I'm confused. I have just seen images of a near naked person from the crash site. How could that happen unless the person had taken their clothes off? I've got a horrible feeling that the people they are finding made it out. Could this mean that there are some alive? I am finding it hard to say this as the plane has been discovered SO close to the last known point of contact but I am puzzled to find a person nearly naked, an emergency raft/slide and a door.

Typically clothes are torn off in the deceleration at extreme forces...(CI crash Taipei-Hong Kong a case it point, although it came apart at altitude).

If the emergency doors and slides are armed would they be likely to deploy automatically in a serious impact?

[draftvader]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

Interesting , what is your source ?

Yahoo Singapore

Indonesian rescue pilot says that three of the bodies spotted in the water were 'holding hands': Kompas #QZ8501

[osten]

Article mentioned their request to climb was denied. Didn't know that pilot request like that could be denied? Similar to pilot decision to abort a landing in that pilot gets to make the call?

[Sirpia]

Article mentioned their request to climb was denied. Didn't know that pilot request like that could be denied? Similar to pilot decision to abort a landing in that pilot gets to make the call?

Other aircraft in the area at higher altitudes.

[F430murci]

QUOTE :

"The Jawa Post reported that a body in a white T-shirt and orange life jacket had been identified, while Kompas TV quoted the co-pilot of a spotter aircraft as saying that floating objects resembled humans, suitcases and aircraft debris."

Sounds like some of them may have made it out, in which case how many may have been saved if not for the initial delays?

Poor souls.

Yes, some may have made it. I thought this at the first report of a life jacket and a bouyancy vest being spotted, and the aircraft's slide. It means they opened the doors and some got out. The woman in the video appears to have stripped down for a swim.

In the face of at least 40 deaths, at least others may be alive.

Stripped down for a swim? High speed impacts remove clothes. Life vest may have been out on on the way down. Too early to speculate on either but there are other explanations.

[Sirpia]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

Interesting , what is your source ?

Yahoo Singapore

Indonesian rescue pilot says that three of the bodies spotted in the water were 'holding hands': Kompas #QZ8501

You'd have to wonder what the cause of death was for them.

[scorecard]

Grief, condolences, ceremonial rites, and taking care of those left behind must be the first priority.

A little later one must hope there will be a very detailed investigation to see what lessons can be learned.

[F430murci]

Im afraid the Indonesian Authorities have probably been aware of the location for some time, most likely looking for survivors to give some good news before going public.

Still dosnt excuse the wasted time in the first few hours, not that its any surprise in Asia these days.

Perhaps, but searches not easy in bad weather and high seas.

[Prbkk]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

Interesting , what is your source ?

Yahoo Singapore

Indonesian rescue pilot says that three of the bodies spotted in the water were 'holding hands': Kompas #QZ8501

Same report on The Independent's site, quoting the pilot of the Search plane. Too awful to contemplate.

[draftvader]

There are reports that 3 bodies were holding hands. It is looking more like this captain got the plane down to some degree.

Interesting , what is your source ?

Yahoo Singapore

Indonesian rescue pilot says that three of the bodies spotted in the water were 'holding hands': Kompas #QZ8501

Same report on The Independent's site, quoting the pilot of the Search plane. Too awful to contemplate.

Maybe they were floating together and alive. Maybe the plane sank so quickly that only some people got out but didn't have much time to grab their life vests. Maybe others did get off and are drifting on a life raft. This just makes all the blustering in the first 8 hours more painful.

Edited December 30, 2014 by draftvader

[sunshine51]

Here's the weather on day 2...look at the left side of centre for the region, good for air search IMO judging by the satpic without any wind or pressure data available on the chart.

Yes it's now day 3 and the operation has moved from search, rescue (all dead most likely) into the recovery mode....picking up the easy bits first then when the salvage ships & possibly a submersible or two arrive the harder to locate bits will be located & raised & then we may finally know what happened.

For the pic I originally posted though...a few hours after the event may be left wide open to speculation especially if that red blob with the black centre ( North of Surabaya) was moving NW...towards the point of last contact. That may complicate matters relating to SAR wouldn't it? The C-130 is a very capable aircraft and no it was not designed for low altitude missions save for very short durations...it was designed to carry a very heavy load and if need be deliver it at low altitude on a short runway... not cruise at low altitude....that gobbles fuel to fast. During SAR flights one flies at perhaps 2000 feet to survey a wide area then descend lower upon seeing (maybe) items of interest related to the SAR mission. An aircraft just doesn't head out from base at 500 meters for the duration of said mission...again too much fuel expended equals not much time on station. Plus...since nobody on this forum was in the area on the day of the event...we know zero about the visibility. What if the vis was around 500 meters horizontally? What if it was zero? So your logic seems to be to launch

a SAR Herc in weather that may have been shit with zero vis...for what? Endanger the SAR crew & aircraft and accomplish nothing except compound an already shit situation. You must remember that winds in a CB or any large weather cell not only blow in a horizontal manner in all directions at times, they also blow (move) in a

verticle manner (+ & -) and that the wind at sea level may be very strong ie...F5+ under that cell. Sure...you go take your Herc in there...I'll go get some coffee & come look for you when the storm calms down or moves well outta the way.

[tigermonkey]

Same report on The Independent's site, quoting the pilot of the Search plane. Too awful to contemplate.

Maybe they were floating together and alive. Maybe the plane sank so quickly that only some people got out but didn't have much time to grab their life vests. Maybe others did get off and are drifting on a life raft. This just makes all the blustering in the first 8 hours more painful.

Let's just wait until we have some facts before speculating about this - we have no idea of the cause of death. I have no idea how a rescue pilot could possibly see that they were holding hands from his altitude - think of the resolution of the pictures of the first wreckage spotted - you could not really tell if it was an exit door and slide. Perhaps there were three bodies floating together and he decide to embellish that they were holding hands. I have never seen people who were fighting to stay afloat holding hands - they use their hands to try to stay a float !

Edited December 30, 2014 by tigermonkey

[ableguy]

QUOTE :

"The Jawa Post reported that a body in a white T-shirt and orange life jacket had been identified, while Kompas TV quoted the co-pilot of a spotter aircraft as saying that floating objects resembled humans, suitcases and aircraft debris."

Sounds like some of them may have made it out, in which case how many may have been saved if not for the initial delays?

Poor souls.

Absolutely none , get real, bullshit conjecture.

[Ulic]

I will put in my to cents in as like most TV posters I have no direct information but can speculate like many do.

I do fly a little, have some experience with accidents and rescue.

1/ The accident was a convergence of several mistakes or circumstances coming together weather being one.

2/ Some of the bodies having clothes missing when recovered as has been suggested is due to rapid deceleration.

either mid air but more likely the plane hitting the water.

3/ Everyone died on impact going down with the plane, not to sound grizzly but the bodies are now floating

to the surface as they bloat and start to float.

4/ SAR flight and crews, fly in the most appalling conditions when no one in there right mind would fly let alone fly

1500 feet above the hard deck in gale force conditions.

5/ Anybody who has sailed the area in good weather knows the weather had to be awful at sea level not just the

sky. The area is full of fishing boats and the plane would probably have hit a fishing boat and in the very least been spotted

by one of the boats. So I conclude the fishing fleet must have been in harbor.

6/ Sad to say Mayday (the TV program) will have lots of material for shows from this year. The FAA will continue to learn

from these accidents and flying will be safer in the future. Never 100% safe, but safer.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Tywais
Changed to standard font

[englishoak]

Indonesian rescue pilot says that three of the bodies spotted in the water were 'holding hands': Kompas #QZ8501

Same report on The Independent's site, quoting the pilot of the Search plane. Too awful to contemplate.

Maybe they were floating together and alive. Maybe the plane sank so quickly that only some people got out but didn't have much time to grab their life vests. Maybe others did get off and are drifting on a life raft. This just makes all the blustering in the first 8 hours more painful.

It just highlights what a delay in responding can mean... tragic if some managed to evacuate only to have no one come find them.

Everyone with anything to do with the rescue services know how crucial rapid response is to saving lives.

A tragedy that possibly some could have been saved from if handled better.

[dcutman]

Here's the weather on day 2...look at the left side of centre for the region, good for air search IMO judging by the satpic without any wind or pressure data available on the chart.

cMCIRNegWorld.jpg

Yes it's now day 3 and the operation has moved from search, rescue (all dead most likely) into the recovery mode....picking up the easy bits first then when the salvage ships & possibly a submersible or two arrive the harder to locate bits will be located & raised & then we may finally know what happened.

For the pic I originally posted though...a few hours after the event may be left wide open to speculation especially if that red blob with the black centre ( North of Surabaya) was moving NW...towards the point of last contact. That may complicate

matters relating to SAR wouldn't it? The C-130 is a very capable aircraft and no it was not designed for low altitude missions save for very short durations...it was designed to carry a very heavy load and if need be deliver it at low altitude on a short runway... not cruise at low altitude....that gobbles fuel to fast. During SAR flights one flies at perhaps 2000 feet to survey a wide area then descend lower upon seeing (maybe) items of interest related to the SAR mission. An aircraft just doesn't head out from base at 500 meters for the duration of said mission...again too much fuel expended equals not much time on station. Plus...since nobody on this forum was in the area on the day of the event...we know zero about the visibility. What if the vis was around 500 meters horizontally? What if it was zero? So your logic seems to be to launch a SAR Herc in weather that may have been shit with zero vis...for what? Endanger the SAR crew & aircraft and accomplish nothing except compound an already shit situation. You must remember that winds in a CB or any large weather cell not only blow in a horizontal manner in all directions at times, they also blow (move) in a verticle manner (+ & -) and that the wind at sea level may be very strong ie...F5+ under that cell. Sure...you go take your Herc in there...I'll go get some coffee & come look for you when the storm calms down or moves well outta the way.

Thunderstorms are a bitch I am sure. But they usually last for a short amount of time in any one area. As I said before, I am not laying blame on the search/rescue crews, They follow orders. Is all I am saying is the plane lost, was found almost in the exact position last seen, even after nearly three days. I would have to assume if the weather was as bad as you think, and speculate, the wreckage would be way farther from the last known location reported.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Scott

[dcutman]

I will put in my to cents in as like most TV posters I have no direct information but can speculate like many do.

I do fly a little, have some experience with accidents and rescue.

1/ The accident was a convergence of several mistakes or circumstances coming together weather being one.

2/ Some of the bodies having clothes missing when recovered as has been suggested is due to rapid deceleration.

either mid air but more likely the plane hitting the water.

3/ Everyone died on impact going down with the plane, not to sound grizzly but the bodies are now floating

to the surface as they bloat and start to float.

4/ SAR flight and crews, fly in the most appalling conditions when no one in there right mind would fly let alone fly

1500 feet above the hard deck in gale force conditions.

5/ Anybody who has sailed the area in good weather knows the weather had to be awful at sea level not just the

sky. The area is full of fishing boats and the plane would probably have hit a fishing boat and in the very least been spotted

by one of the boats. So I conclude the fishing fleet must have been in harbor.

6/ Sad to say Mayday (the TV program) will have lots of material for shows from this year. The FAA will continue to learn

from these accidents and flying will be safer in the future. Never 100% safe, but safer.

4/ SAR flight and crews, fly in the most appalling conditions when no one in there right mind would fly let alone fly

1500 feet above the hard deck in gale force conditions.

5/ Anybody who has sailed the area in good weather knows the weather had to be awful at sea level not just the

sky. The area is full of fishing boats and the plane would probably have hit a fishing boat and in the very least been spotted

by one of the boats. So I conclude the fishing fleet must have been in harbor.

It was a thunderstorm, not a cat 5 typhoon. They go as fast as they come. Lets not try to be so dramatic.

[mrtoad]

It's just so sad, whatever happened , thoughts with families and friends, and I hope those on that Plane didn't suffer.