Thai baht remaining strong

[marcusd]

I want to ask those of you who are players on the markets and know more than I about currency markets.

I am wondering how long the Thai baht is likely to be strong against other currencies?

For example, I understand that Thailand is an exporting nation and to keep products affordable a lower currency is preferable against the currencies of the countries to whom you sell.

Now I know the Australian dollar has dropped against the US$ but the baht remains high.

Australia buys lots of cars from Thailand and those orders have slowed ... So wouldn't the car companies be angry?..

I am using them as a case example because the are worth,more than tourism?

Viewpoints please?

[Lukecan]

As long as there are suckers sending money to bargirls from abroad the thai baht will continue to stay strong. You're gonna make fun of me, but I really think this factor plays some sort of role. There are a bunch of guys in shitty towns in Sweden,Norway sending 500-1000usd equivalent money to these girls every month. With huge amount of thirsty guys in the west, I dont see the baht falling anytime soon.

Edited January 20, 2015 by Lukecan

[lannarebirth]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

[lannarebirth]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

[i claudius]

As long as there are suckers sending money to bargirls from abroad the thai baht will continue to stay strong. You're gonna make fun of me, but I really think this factor plays some sort of role. There are a bunch of guys in shitty towns in Sweden,Norway sending 500-1000usd equivalent money to these girls every month. With huge amount of thirsty guys in the west, I dont see the baht falling anytime soon.

I won't make fun of you but I think you overestimate the effect on the Thai baht ,oh ok I will make fun of you

[Utley]

Japan keeps the Thai baht strong by heavily investing in Thailand. Japan has an aging population and needs retirement facilities for their seniors; or so I read recently.

[topt]

Any reason why we need a second topic OP - or did you miss the one already running?

link below to the 7th page..........

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/791760-why-does-the-thai-baht-continue-to-be-so-strong/page-7#entry8961745

[beechguy]

Any reason why we need a second topic OP - or did you miss the one already running?

link below to the 7th page..........

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/791760-why-does-the-thai-baht-continue-to-be-so-strong/page-7#entry8961745

It's the Thai Visa way, let's run our fingers on the keyboard and ask a redundant question, rather that looking and reading a little.

[paddyjenkins]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

You seem to be living about a year behind

[rickirs]

Against the world currencies, only the US and China have maintained higher exchange rates to the baht. About 20% of Thai exports goes to these two countries in about equal portions.

China's short-term economy remains unpredictable given the lack of transparency of the Politburo, but one can expect more Chinese currency manipulations to maintain a high foreign exchange rate for the yuan. However, Chinese efforts to successivelly inflate the yuan value throughout 2015 will be severly tested and I expect some devaluation to occur by mid-year.

The US provides Thailand with the greatest export stability for 2015. However, the Thai military-led government seems to be engaging in anti-American /anti-democratic / anti-capitalistic rhetoric designed to isolate and/or insulate Thailand from US foreign policy. The Junta may have rushed too quickly on that tact without first securing the Thai economy. If Thailand can't make serious amends with the US by mid-year, it will lose substantial exports to the US and experience a weakening of the baht unless it can switch its exports from the US to China.

[darrendsd]

As long as there are suckers sending money to bargirls from abroad the thai baht will continue to stay strong. You're gonna make fun of me, but I really think this factor plays some sort of role. There are a bunch of guys in shitty towns in Sweden,Norway sending 500-1000usd equivalent money to these girls every month. With huge amount of thirsty guys in the west, I dont see the baht falling anytime soon.

Absolutely spot on, it's actually Government policy to encourage Bargirls to get their Farang BF's to send them money, this helps keep the Baht strong

[iphad]

Against the world currencies, only the US and China have maintained higher exchange rates to the baht. About 20% of Thai exports goes to these two countries in about equal portions.

China's short-term economy remains unpredictable given the lack of transparency of the Politburo, but one can expect more Chinese currency manipulations to maintain a high foreign exchange rate for the yuan. However, Chinese efforts to successivelly inflate the yuan value throughout 2015 will be severly tested and I expect some devaluation to occur by mid-year.

The US provides Thailand with the greatest export stability for 2015. However, the Thai military-led government seems to be engaging in anti-American /anti-democratic / anti-capitalistic rhetoric designed to isolate and/or insulate Thailand from US foreign policy. The Junta may have rushed too quickly on that tact without first securing the Thai economy. If Thailand can't make serious amends with the US by mid-year, it will lose substantial exports to the US and experience a weakening of the baht unless it can switch its exports from the US to China.

so you are suggesting if Thailand acts more respectfully & makes amends to the US & quit being anti american,undemocratic,anti capitalist then the Thai baht will remain strong?

My stats say export to China is 14% & to the US is 9.7%...not sure how accurate the numbers are.Japan is at 10 %...Indonesia & Malaysia about 5% each.

[alfieconn]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

The title of the post is "Thai baht remaining strong" and your only talking about it against the dollar, believe or not you can buy the baht against many other currencies in the world !

[konying]

As long as there are suckers sending money to bargirls from abroad the thai baht will continue to stay strong. You're gonna make fun of me, but I really think this factor plays some sort of role. There are a bunch of guys in shitty towns in Sweden,Norway sending 500-1000usd equivalent money to these girls every month. With huge amount of thirsty guys in the west, I dont see the baht falling anytime soon.

Absolutely spot on, it's actually Government policy to encourage Bargirls to get their Farang BF's to send them money, this helps keep the Baht strong

Do not but it actually is.

Who was it 1-2 years ago? i think Suthep who publicly said poor women should look for a foreign husband

[chiang mai]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

The title of the post is "Thai baht remaining strong" and your only talking about it against the dollar, believe or not you can buy the baht against many other currencies in the world !

And all those "other currencies" are totally immune to the strength or weakness of the worlds reserve currency, especially exporting countries, right? !

[alfieconn]

I think the Thai Baht remains high so long as the US remains dovish on the issue of raising interest rates. Should the US change it's policy, to increase Fed Funds rates, I think you'll probably see a weakening of the THB along with many other emerging market currencies.

The title of the post is "Thai baht remaining strong" and your only talking about it against the dollar, believe or not you can buy the baht against many other currencies in the world !

And all those "other currencies" are totally immune to the strength or weakness of the worlds reserve currency, especially exporting countries, right? !

Where have I said that "other currencies" are immune to the strength or weakness to the US dollar ?

[OZEMADE]

Well we will have to see how the Baht goes against the Aussie $ in the next couple of weeks. Not looking good according to the news tonight.

The Australian dollar could be about to dive below 80 US cents for the first time in almost six years.

ANZ tips $A to fall below 80 US cents

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/anz-tips-fall-below-80-035716955.html

[kalbo123]

I wonder how many people on a Euro based pension or income can afford to stay here, Spain is calling, cheap, good weather and in the Eurozone.

[2fishin2]

The baht is not strong....it hasnt fluctuated more than a couple baht against the US dollar for 10 years or so. Its currently same as it was when I first visited. Maybe another country's value has weakened

[alfieconn]

The baht is not strong....it hasnt fluctuated more than a couple baht against the US dollar for 10 years or so. Its currently same as it was when I first visited. Maybe another country's value has weakened

Another person gauging the strength of the Baht by the THB / USD exchange rate

[Naam]

The baht is not strong....it hasnt fluctuated more than a couple baht against the US dollar for 10 years or so. Its currently same as it was when I first visited. Maybe another country's value has weakened

about 10 years ago one Dollar bought 42 Baht, today one Dollar buys 32.4 Baht.

you call 10 Baht a "couple of Baht" and a difference of nearly 30% "it hasn't fluctuated"?

[2fishin2]

Yeah im sorry i should have said when I first came here circa 2007 which by this chart shows just to the high side of 30:1. The average exchange rate has been 33.67 over the last 10 years which is less than one baht than it is now it is now.

Semantics, you guys are real losers

[Naam]

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1421983637.350620.jpg

Yeah im sorry i should have said when I first came here circa 2007 which by this chart shows just to the high side of 30:1. The average exchange rate has been 33.67 over the last 10 years which is less than one baht than it is now it is now.

Semantics, you guys are real losers

sorry losers are those who won't admit that they are mistaken or can't count till 10

[2fishin2]

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1421983637.350620.jpg

Yeah im sorry i should have said when I first came here circa 2007 which by this chart shows just to the high side of 30:1. The average exchange rate has been 33.67 over the last 10 years which is less than one baht than it is now it is now.

Semantics, you guys are real losers

sorry losers are those who won't admit that they are mistaken or can't count till 10

I said i was sorry....but fact remains baht has been pretty dang steady against the dollar

[SantiSuk]

Received wisdom in currency markets re GBP against many other currencies of which ThB is one is that speculators and investors are running shy of the pound sterling because of the risks that UKIP get a good election result, get into coalition with Cameron and eventually the UK goes out of the Euro. Received wisdom is that international investors do not want to invest in a country that has de-linked itself from Europe.

I am merely relaying what I understand is one of the main factors behind the £'s continuing (and recently accelerating) drop against ThB. Things are not expected to get better until there is more confidence about a favourable (to the £) political outcome expected. OK some of you will now want to engage in a political debate (please do it elsewhere ). Some will want to claim it's a Tory conspiracy (ok - go out and buy the appropriate put/call and then tell us about it when you have put your money where your cynical mouth is ). Some will say I'm just a to$$er who knows not which way is up. Possibly, but I'll certainly be putting my money where my mouth is and sitting tight for a better rate than Friday's close of 48.57. I may have to wait 6 months

[40 year investor, but not in the mug's game of currency speculation, except re timing of transferring GBP to ThB for spending!]

[Misab]

The US economy continues its progress soon with consequent strong dollar. Dollar rises broadly against all other currencies except the Thai baht, probably because Thailand has decided to follow the dollar. It is for ordinary people totally incomprehensible because the Thai economy is not in strength just near the US.

When it dawns on those responsible in Thailand that their exports are in serious troubles, is not known, but I think you will see Thailand go into recession in the coming months. I think the Bank of Thailand will intervene soon in with interest rate cuts or other measures.

[IMA_FARANG]

My personal opinion, and I am not any kind of expert on this, tis that money flowing in from other Asian counties..... those that are suffering from low oil prices for their exported oil ..... may be a factor in keeping the Baht temporarily higher than it might otherwise be.

For places like Indonesia, for example, Thailand must look like a relatively good place to invest money, at least in the short term.

Possibly Japan and even China also.

[alfieconn]

Received wisdom in currency markets re GBP against many other currencies of which ThB is one is that speculators and investors are running shy of the pound sterling because of the risks that UKIP get a good election result, get into coalition with Cameron and eventually the UK goes out of the Euro. Received wisdom is that international investors do not want to invest in a country that has de-linked itself from Europe.

I am merely relaying what I understand is one of the main factors behind the £'s continuing (and recently accelerating) drop against ThB. Things are not expected to get better until there is more confidence about a favourable (to the £) political outcome expected. OK some of you will now want to engage in a political debate (please do it elsewhere ). Some will want to claim it's a Tory conspiracy (ok - go out and buy the appropriate put/call and then tell us about it when you have put your money where your cynical mouth is ). Some will say I'm just a to$$er who knows not which way is up. Possibly, but I'll certainly be putting my money where my mouth is and sitting tight for a better rate than Friday's close of 48.57. I may have to wait 6 months

[40 year investor, but not in the mug's game of currency speculation, except re timing of transferring GBP to ThB for spending!]

Bit off topic Sants as the title of the thread is about the strength of the Baht !

Anyway on the sterling subject, I think it is as much down to low interest rates so you may have to wait a lot longer than 6 months !

Edited January 26, 2015 by alfieconn

[Time Traveller]

I think the real question here is why isn't the Baht stronger than it currently is?

Thailand imports more than $30billion of oil each year - almost 10% of their GDP just to buy oil. Now that oil prices have fallen about 50% in the last 5 months, guess what? Now they save $15 billion. That's $15bln less each year that flows out of the country.

My prediction is if Oil stays sub $50 then the Bath/USD will be trading at or below 30 by December this year. Those who think the baht is "temporarily stronger" than it should be will find out soon enough how wrong they are.

Edited January 26, 2015 by Time Traveller

[paddyjenkins]

The baht is not strong....it hasnt fluctuated more than a couple baht against the US dollar for 10 years or so. Its currently same as it was when I first visited. Maybe another country's value has weakened

Another person gauging the strength of the Baht by the THB / USD exchange rate

Thats a bit of an exaggeration....high was in the low 40s and low was in the high 20s over the past decade. But i agree its been relatively stable for a few years, and looks almost like a managed float, as opposed to a free float. I think with the strong current account of Thailand and its strong reserves the BOT is in a position to prevent weakness and tolerate strength and they may have a policy of maintaining stability in USD terms. i think the breaking point wont be till the current account deteriorates, but that doesn't seem imminent even if some exports slow down. Of course a fresh bout of political instability which damages confidence and FDI etc may also have an impact, but that scenario is also probably some way off as long as the military remain in power...a junta will create apparent stability for quite some time....until some massive shift surprises us all, but we cant count on that in the near term. Edited January 26, 2015 by paddyjenkins