Patong is dead.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, NamKangMan said:

 

 

That's quite a dream, BD.

 

Many would simply be happy if Phuket province had a similar level of infrastructure and facilities as other provinces have in Thailand.   

 

If ya gunna dream.  Dream big.

[NamKangMan]

2 hours ago, madmitch said:

The reason I quoted from Booking.com is the fact that provide these availability figures and the fact that they are the largest online agent.

 

Many outside the industry don't know how these sites really work and therefore believe that providing figures from one site is inaccurate. Well, just about all large hotels, most medium-sized hotels and several budget places use channel manager software which controls the availability across all the sites they use as well as their own websites, therefore the figure provided by the largest operator will be pretty accurate. Walk-in trade is minimal these days.

 

I agree that real high season kicks in these days just before Christmas, and that's the case all over Phuket, and that's why I previously used the availability option over Christmas itself.

 

So, if you believe that now would give a more accurate figure, then I offer the following reserved percentages, again from Booking.com, based on two nights from tomorrow:

 

Patong 44%

Kata 54%

Karon 65%

Kamala 72%

Bangtao 76%

 

Still not very good for high season, especially for Patong!

 

 

"I agree that real high season kicks in these days just before Christmas" - I was under the belief that "high season" was from the 1st November until the end of Songkran, and PEAK SEASON was the 2 weeks over Christmas and New Year.  The rest of the year being "low season."

 

So, basically, your figures show there was no peak season on Phuket this year. 

[NamKangMan]

57 minutes ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

If ya gunna dream.  Dream big.

 

 

Ok, I will. 

 

My dream is metered taxis for Phuket. 

[eisfeld]

2 hours ago, xylophone said:

 

Hold on a minute, I've just been thinking about this post and in particular that which I have quoted above, and it makes me think that the post is a "wind up" or the poster is a shill for the property or tourism industry!

...

So as you can see, I really don't think this post can be taken seriously!!!!

 

 

Well judging by posts made by CHFarang, he's working for a hotel. Now either he's a shill or the market is shifting. It could be that the more up-scale properties are not doing so badly. I don't have hard numbers but a friend of mine who owns a restaurant that is a bit more up-scale said he's not doing badly right now at all. Considerably better than last year. But that's not in Patong. I have to agree though that anyone who's spend a bit of time in Phuket and even only visited Patong should agree that infrastructure is a complete mess there and pretty much guaranteed to not be fixed properly. I don't have to repeat all the points that were mentioned.

 

On a similar note: there was a noticeable increase in western tourists during christmas and new years but now there's already quite a high drop. At least that's my perception from visiting Central and some beach regions. Haven't felt such a big difference between high and peak season in the past years. Peak seemed not too bad but high season doesn't feel like in the past. Would love to know some real un-fudged numbers but those will be hard to come by.

[Peterw42]

Maybe people dont stay in hotels but stay in all the empty condos that are often mentioned. Lots of people keep a condo empty all year , to stay in during high season. I know lots of people who come for high season and never go near a hotel, they rent a condo or house for 2 months, or stay in there own condo they own for holidays.

I know its not Phuket, but my condo block in jomtien is full to capacity at the moment. Given that its pretty self contained, pool, gym, resturant, lots of people never leave the block, or the soi. Just because tourists are not visible, it doesnt mean they are not here. 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Peterw42

[NamKangMan]

18 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

Well judging by posts made by CHFarang, he's working for a hotel. Now either he's a shill or the market is shifting. It could be that the more up-scale properties are not doing so badly. I don't have hard numbers but a friend of mine who owns a restaurant that is a bit more up-scale said he's not doing badly right now at all. Considerably better than last year. But that's not in Patong. I have to agree though that anyone who's spend a bit of time in Phuket and even only visited Patong should agree that infrastructure is a complete mess there and pretty much guaranteed to not be fixed properly. I don't have to repeat all the points that were mentioned.

 

On a similar note: there was a noticeable increase in western tourists during christmas and new years but now there's already quite a high drop. At least that's my perception from visiting Central and some beach regions. Haven't felt such a big difference between high and peak season in the past years. Peak seemed not too bad but high season doesn't feel like in the past. Would love to know some real un-fudged numbers but those will be hard to come by.

 

 

"Would love to know some real un-fudged numbers but those will be hard to come by." - keep an eye on the airlines decreasing their flight frequency to Phuket, or decreasing the size of the aircraft.

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

 

"Would love to know some real un-fudged numbers but those will be hard to come by." - keep an eye on the airlines decreasing their flight frequency to Phuket, or decreasing the size of the aircraft.

 

Isnt the new airport terminal an indication of more overall flights

Edited January 6, 2017 by Peterw42

[NamKangMan]

13 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Maybe people dont stay in hotels but stay in all the empty condos that are often mentioned. Lots of people keep a condo empty all year , to stay in during high season. I know lots of people who come for high season and never go near a hotel, they rent a condo or house for 2 months, or stay in there own condo they own for holidays.

 

"Maybe people dont stay in hotels but stay in all the empty condos that are often mentioned." - many of which are owned by a foreigner, and employ little to no staff, with the "rent" being paid to the foreign owner, who is usually outside Thailand, with the said rent being spent, outside Thailand. 

 

So, whilst such tourists may be decent spenders on their holiday here, their accommodation money doesn't get into the Phuket economy, and their stay at the condo doesn't really employ anyone. 

 

You could effectively call these tourists "zero baht accommodation tourists." 

 

Now can you see why the Thai's will try to stop this in the future? 

 

[LivinginKata]

3 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

 

Isnt the new airport terminal an indication of more overall flights

 

It's an indication of chaos and incompetence by the airport authority .... welcome to Phuket by waiting hours.

[NamKangMan]

15 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

 

Isnt the new airport terminal an indication of more overall flights

 

As stated previously, tourist numbers may be up, but the money is down, way down, and the reason for this is the majority of tourists coming to Phuket now are Chinese package holiday tourists.

 

No point having a lot of tourists, if the don't spend money. 

 

Also, many people now use Phuket Airport as a transit airport.  These tourists will never stay a night of their holiday on Phuket, yet, they are counted as tourists to Phuket.   

Edited January 6, 2017 by NamKangMan

[billythehat]

7 hours ago, xylophone said:

 

Hold on a minute, I've just been thinking about this post and in particular that which I have quoted above, and it makes me think that the post is a "wind up" or the poster is a shill for the property or tourism industry!

 

And the reason I say that is because no one with half a brain who has lived here for a while would state anything like the above..............

 

The infrastructure is absolutely stuffed and there is no hope for it at the moment, so the sweet scent of sewerage assaults the nostrils during the hot days and washes over the feet on the wet days; the infrastructure is so far advanced that on one new main road in Patong there sit two diesel powered pumps which actively take water from either side of the road and pump it onto the road, thereby ensuring that roads further down towards the beach are well and truly flooded.

 

And of course this water and sewerage eventually finds its way into the sea courtesy of various channels, which shouldn't be there.

 

The peace and quiet of the days and evenings are often punctuated by loud bangs as overloaded transformers, pole fuses and the like, explode, and in the process ensure that blackouts prevail for anything up to a few hours, and in some cases damage appliances and electronic gear.

 

The potholes in many of the roads have become so large that the occasional Ethiopian refugee has set up home in them...........and I could go on and on.

 

As for the shopping experience well it has certainly been an experience here because in the old days there was Ocean Plaza in Bangla which folded due to lack of business when Jungceylon opened, then there was the shopping and dining experience alongside new Tiger which has closed and is now being demolished because it failed, and then of course there is the Bangla shopping mall which set up business halfway down Bangla and has since closed due to – – yes, lack of business.

 

So one would think that Jungceylon would be absolutely booming, but it isn't and I have it on good authority from a few senior managers in various establishments in the place that they are struggling big time. Now if someone thinks that building another shopping complex in Patong is going to improve the place, well they should think again because the place cannot handle another shopping centre and anyway the cheap tourists flocking here at the moment really don't spend in any upmarket shops, nor in any great amounts.

 

Ah of course I forgot about the entertainment which is supposed to be "in the pipeline", so perhaps that can take its place alongside of the almost empty cinemas here, not to mention a few other attractions which have folded over the years.

 

So as you can see, I really don't think this post can be taken seriously!!!!

 

 

"the reason I say that is because no one with half a brain who has lived here for a while would state anything like the above"

 

I wouldn't put too mutt money on that horse...hee hee...

Edited January 6, 2017 by billythehat

[Peterw42]

Tourist arrivals by country 2016 2559P
Country of	Number		%Change
Nationality	2016P	2015	2016/15
East  Asia	19,874,551	18,047,423	+10.12
ASEAN	7,781,185	7,073,817	+10.00
Brunei	11,791	11,503	+2.50
Cambodia	622,357	484,082	+28.56
Indonesia	484,954	427,210	+13.52
Laos	1,285,583	1,096,049	+17.29
Malaysia	3,140,853	3,029,179	+3.69
Myanmar	308,370	228,275	+35.09
Philippines	309,170	285,284	+8.37
Singapore	846,646	815,738	+3.79
Vietnam	771,461	696,497	+10.76
China	8,221,916	7,298,937	+12.65
Hong Kong	686,738	613,106	+12.01
Japan	1,310,719	1,256,539	+4.31
Korea	1,322,657	1,223,730	+8.08
Taiwan	484,739	514,082	-5.71
Others	66,597	67,212	-0.92
Europe	5,392,524	4,909,466	+9.84
Austria	87,227	85,636	+1.86
Belgium	98,373	94,228	+4.40
Denmark	148,338	141,104	+5.13
Finland	108,560	108,807	-0.23
France	661,785	612,043	+8.13
Germany	742,813	672,888	+10.39
Italy	230,124	212,914	+8.08
Netherlands	212,824	197,556	+7.73
Norway	114,594	116,293	-1.46
Russia	928,173	755,955	+22.78
Spain	156,605	140,108	+11.77
Sweden	269,055	254,025	+5.92
Switzerland	181,638	178,810	+1.58
United  Kingdom	890,404	835,879	+6.52
East  Europe	350,113	316,402	+10.65
Others	211,898	186,818	+13.42
The  Americas	1,236,694	1,090,941	+13.36
Argentina	39,768	24,999	+59.08
Brazil	53,852	42,130	+27.82
Canada	216,768	202,005	+7.31
USA	859,838	765,544	+12.32
Others	66,468	56,263	+18.14
South  Asia	1,374,714	1,270,515	+8.20
Bangladesh	89,675	95,968	-6.56
India	1,080,126	969,396	+11.42
Nepal	38,491	29,700	+29.60
Pakistan	67,669	72,268	-6.36
Sri  Lanka	61,671	67,885	-9.15
Others	37,082	35,298	+5.05
Oceania	820,426	838,250	-2.13
Australia	717,268	733,699	-2.24
New  Zealand	100,495	101,696	-1.18
Others	2,663	2,855	-6.73
Middle  East	684,703	603,142	+13.52
Egypt	26,058	23,021	+13.19
Israel	145,186	126,743	+14.55
Kuwait	57,569	63,261	-9.00
Saudi  Arabia	23,153	17,912	+29.26
U.A.E.	117,176	113,228	+3.49
Others	315,561	258,977	+21.85
Africa	146,891	139,157	+5.56
S.Africa	63,249	61,712	+2.49
Others	83,642	77,445	+8.00
Grand  Total	29,530,503	26,898,894	+9.78

Edited January 7, 2017 by Peterw42

[xylophone]

43 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Tourist arrivals by country 2016 2559P
Country of	Number		%Change
Nationality	2016P	2015	2016/15
East  Asia	19,874,551	18,047,423	+10.12
ASEAN	7,781,185	7,073,817	+10.00
Brunei	11,791	11,503	+2.50
Cambodia	622,357	484,082	+28.56
Indonesia	484,954	427,210	+13.52
Laos	1,285,583	1,096,049	+17.29
Malaysia	3,140,853	3,029,179	+3.69
Myanmar	308,370	228,275	+35.09
Philippines	309,170	285,284	+8.37
Singapore	846,646	815,738	+3.79
Vietnam	771,461	696,497	+10.76
China	8,221,916	7,298,937	+12.65
Hong Kong	686,738	613,106	+12.01
Japan	1,310,719	1,256,539	+4.31
Korea	1,322,657	1,223,730	+8.08
Taiwan	484,739	514,082	-5.71
Others	66,597	67,212	-0.92
Europe	5,392,524	4,909,466	+9.84
Austria	87,227	85,636	+1.86
Belgium	98,373	94,228	+4.40
Denmark	148,338	141,104	+5.13
Finland	108,560	108,807	-0.23
France	661,785	612,043	+8.13
Germany	742,813	672,888	+10.39
Italy	230,124	212,914	+8.08
Netherlands	212,824	197,556	+7.73
Norway	114,594	116,293	-1.46
Russia	928,173	755,955	+22.78
Spain	156,605	140,108	+11.77
Sweden	269,055	254,025	+5.92
Switzerland	181,638	178,810	+1.58
United  Kingdom	890,404	835,879	+6.52
East  Europe	350,113	316,402	+10.65
Others	211,898	186,818	+13.42
The  Americas	1,236,694	1,090,941	+13.36
Argentina	39,768	24,999	+59.08
Brazil	53,852	42,130	+27.82
Canada	216,768	202,005	+7.31
USA	859,838	765,544	+12.32
Others	66,468	56,263	+18.14
South  Asia	1,374,714	1,270,515	+8.20
Bangladesh	89,675	95,968	-6.56
India	1,080,126	969,396	+11.42
Nepal	38,491	29,700	+29.60
Pakistan	67,669	72,268	-6.36
Sri  Lanka	61,671	67,885	-9.15
Others	37,082	35,298	+5.05
Oceania	820,426	838,250	-2.13
Australia	717,268	733,699	-2.24
New  Zealand	100,495	101,696	-1.18
Others	2,663	2,855	-6.73
Middle  East	684,703	603,142	+13.52
Egypt	26,058	23,021	+13.19
Israel	145,186	126,743	+14.55
Kuwait	57,569	63,261	-9.00
Saudi  Arabia	23,153	17,912	+29.26
U.A.E.	117,176	113,228	+3.49
Others	315,561	258,977	+21.85
Africa	146,891	139,157	+5.56
S.Africa	63,249	61,712	+2.49
Others	83,642	77,445	+8.00
Grand  Total	29,530,503	26,898,894	+9.78

 

Oops.......did I misunderstand this??

 

Obviously because I posted some figs re NZ tourists and got it wrong big time!

Edited January 7, 2017 by xylophone
incorrect

[GiantFan]

How to reconcile 32+ million that TAT just came out with?  Transit adds about 1 million.  So over 1 million lost souls.  555

[steelepulse]

1 hour ago, GiantFan said:

How to reconcile 32+ million that TAT just came out with?  Transit adds about 1 million.  So over 1 million lost souls.  555

 

Transit and visa runs pad the numbers quite well.

 

How about foreigners that live here and travel back and forth around the region at least once a month?  

[DrDave]

6 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Tourist arrivals by country 2016 2559P
Country of	Number		%Change
Nationality	2016P	2015	2016/15
East  Asia	19,874,551	18,047,423	+10.12
ASEAN	7,781,185	7,073,817	+10.00
Brunei	11,791	11,503	+2.50
Cambodia	622,357	484,082	+28.56
Indonesia	484,954	427,210	+13.52
Laos	1,285,583	1,096,049	+17.29
Malaysia	3,140,853	3,029,179	+3.69
Myanmar	308,370	228,275	+35.09
Philippines	309,170	285,284	+8.37
Singapore	846,646	815,738	+3.79
Vietnam	771,461	696,497	+10.76
China	8,221,916	7,298,937	+12.65
Hong Kong	686,738	613,106	+12.01
Japan	1,310,719	1,256,539	+4.31
Korea	1,322,657	1,223,730	+8.08
Taiwan	484,739	514,082	-5.71
Others	66,597	67,212	-0.92
Europe	5,392,524	4,909,466	+9.84
Austria	87,227	85,636	+1.86
Belgium	98,373	94,228	+4.40
Denmark	148,338	141,104	+5.13
Finland	108,560	108,807	-0.23
France	661,785	612,043	+8.13
Germany	742,813	672,888	+10.39
Italy	230,124	212,914	+8.08
Netherlands	212,824	197,556	+7.73
Norway	114,594	116,293	-1.46
Russia	928,173	755,955	+22.78
Spain	156,605	140,108	+11.77
Sweden	269,055	254,025	+5.92
Switzerland	181,638	178,810	+1.58
United  Kingdom	890,404	835,879	+6.52
East  Europe	350,113	316,402	+10.65
Others	211,898	186,818	+13.42
The  Americas	1,236,694	1,090,941	+13.36
Argentina	39,768	24,999	+59.08
Brazil	53,852	42,130	+27.82
Canada	216,768	202,005	+7.31
USA	859,838	765,544	+12.32
Others	66,468	56,263	+18.14
South  Asia	1,374,714	1,270,515	+8.20
Bangladesh	89,675	95,968	-6.56
India	1,080,126	969,396	+11.42
Nepal	38,491	29,700	+29.60
Pakistan	67,669	72,268	-6.36
Sri  Lanka	61,671	67,885	-9.15
Others	37,082	35,298	+5.05
Oceania	820,426	838,250	-2.13
Australia	717,268	733,699	-2.24
New  Zealand	100,495	101,696	-1.18
Others	2,663	2,855	-6.73
Middle  East	684,703	603,142	+13.52
Egypt	26,058	23,021	+13.19
Israel	145,186	126,743	+14.55
Kuwait	57,569	63,261	-9.00
Saudi  Arabia	23,153	17,912	+29.26
U.A.E.	117,176	113,228	+3.49
Others	315,561	258,977	+21.85
Africa	146,891	139,157	+5.56
S.Africa	63,249	61,712	+2.49
Others	83,642	77,445	+8.00
Grand  Total	29,530,503	26,898,894	+9.78

 

I have zero confidence in these numbers.

 

Think about it....

Cambodia, for instance, had 622,000 arrivals in 2016 as TOURISTS? That means that 4 of every 100 men women and children arrived in Thailand as tourists. I don't think so.

Laos had almost 1.3 million arrivals as TOURISTS?  That would be nearly 20% of the entire population of Laos! All coming to Thailand as tourists (staying in hotels, eating in restaurants, and otherwise spending money). Right.

Singapore - over 15% of their total population had a holiday in Thailand in 2016? Uh huh.

 

Looking at Cambodia and Laos again, there were more Laotian tourist arrivals than Australians? (Think about the relative disparity in disposable income between these two countries). Almost as many Cambodian tourists as Australians and Americans? Ummm.

 

I think someone's been cooking the books.

 

[GiantFan]

I traveled to bkk many times per year on business.  Always checked the tourist box since I didn't have a work permit.

 

[Peterw42]

58 minutes ago, DrDave said:

 

I have zero confidence in these numbers.

 

Think about it....

Cambodia, for instance, had 622,000 arrivals in 2016 as TOURISTS? That means that 4 of every 100 men women and children arrived in Thailand as tourists. I don't think so.

Laos had almost 1.3 million arrivals as TOURISTS?  That would be nearly 20% of the entire population of Laos! All coming to Thailand as tourists (staying in hotels, eating in restaurants, and otherwise spending money). Right.

Singapore - over 15% of their total population had a holiday in Thailand in 2016? Uh huh.

 

Looking at Cambodia and Laos again, there were more Laotian tourist arrivals than Australians? (Think about the relative disparity in disposable income between these two countries). Almost as many Cambodian tourists as Australians and Americans? Ummm.

 

I think someone's been cooking the books.

 

 

I would presume laos and cambodian figures would reflect the fact that they share a land border. It may be very easy to pop across the border for a day out and still be counted as a tourist. Or, as I suspect, the numbers would be people entering to work illegally. If someone comes in and out 3 times a year thats counted as a tourist visit each time. People from Singapore often come to Thailand for a weekend, and may do that several times a year. I have friends in Singapore\malaysia who do it regularly on motorbikes. 

Before I lived here, i visited as a tourist 3-4 times a year from Australia. If I lived in Cambodia, I would have visited 3-4 times a month.

600,000 visitors from laos could be the same 60,000 people visiting 10 times each.

[KarenBravo]

It doesn't matter from an economic stand-point if one tourist visits Thailand four times a year, or, four different people visit once a year; neither does it affect the reported number of tourists.

[Lashay]

15 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Tourist arrivals by country 2016 2559P
Country of	Number		%Change
Nationality	2016P	2015	2016/15
<snip>

	Arrivals		Arrivals	%Change	Arrivals	%Change	Arrivals	%Change
Nationality	2016P		2015	2015 - 2016	2011	2011 - 2016	2006	2006 - 2016
Total	29,530,503		26,898,894	10%	19,230,470	54%	13,821,802	114%
Europe	5,392,524		4,909,466	10%	5,101,406	6%	3,490,779	54%
Denmark	148,338		141,104	5%	164,096	-10%	128,037	16%
Finland	108,560		108,807	-0%	157,046	-31%	110,502	-2%
France	661,785		612,043	8%	515,572	28%	321,278	106%
Germany	742,813		672,888	10%	619,133	20%	516,659	44%
Italy	230,124		212,914	8%	185,869	24%	150,420	53%
Netherlands	212,824		197,556	8%	198,891	7%	180,830	18%
Norway	114,594		116,293	-1%	136,931	-16%	106,314	8%
Russia	928,173		755,955	23%	1,054,187	-12%	187,658	395%
Spain	156,605		140,108	12%	95,383	64%	69,658	125%
Sweden	269,055		254,025	6%	373,856	-28%	306,085	-12%
Switzerland	181,638		178,810	2%	170,044	7%	140,741	29%
United  Kingdom	890,404		835,879	7%	844,972	5%	850,685	5%
Others	747,611		683,084	9%	585,426	28%	421,912	77%
The  Americas	1,236,694		1,090,941	13%	952,519	30%	923,382	34%
Canada	216,768		202,005	7%	194,356	12%	183,094	18%
USA	859,838		765,544	12%	681,748	26%	694,258	24%
Others	160,088		123,392	30%	76,415	109%	46,030	248%
Oceania	820,426		838,250	-2%	933,534	-12%	651,262	26%
Australia	717,268		733,699	-2%	829,855	-14%	549,547	31%
New  Zealand	100,495		101,696	-1%	101,092	-1%	98,786	2%
Others	2,663		2,855	-7%	2,587	3%	2,929	-9%
East  Asia	19,874,551		18,047,423	10%	10,345,866	92%	7,622,244	161%
Hong Kong	686,738		613,106	12%	411,834	67%	376,636	82%
Japan	1,310,719		1,256,539	4%	1,127,893	16%	1,311,987	-0%
Korea	1,322,657		1,223,730	8%	1,006,283	31%	1,092,783	21%
Taiwan	484,739		514,082	-6%	447,610	8%	475,117	2%
China	8,221,916		7,298,937	13%	1,721,247	378%	949,117	766%
Singapore	846,646		815,738	4%	682,364	24%	687,160	23%
Others	7,001,136		6,325,291	11%	2,729,444	157%	4,948,635	41%
Africa	146,891		139,157	6%	137,907	7%	110,511	33%
South Asia	1,374,714		1,270,515	8%	1,158,092	19%	631,208	118%
Middle East	684,703		603,142	14%	601,146	14%	392,416	74%

 

 

As it is a wet boring day decided to break down these numbers and give them a wider perspective to look at the longer range (range determined by most complete data I could find).

 

 

And honestly, they are not that bad, bar the Oceania market (which is an external problem mainly) the overall trend for traditionally better spending nationalities has remained upwards over the last 10 years, but note it has been a small increase, nothing compared to the picture TAT headlines paint.

 

 

There was a was a bit of boom around 2011 with the Nordic and Aus markets but that then dropped off but other western European markets seems to have filled the gap.

 

 

An overall increase of 27% since 2006 and 6.5% over since 2011. To narrow it even more, excluding Russia and “others” (which in Europe is mainly small or poorer eastern European countries and in Americas, Central and South America) from main “farang” markets, tourist numbers went from 4.4 million in 2006, to 5.2 million in 2011 to 5.6 million in 2016.

While not great, not horrible when you consider that during that period we had not only internal problems like military take overs, riots, airport shutdowns, bombing so forth but also the global financial crisis and most of the western world going into recession.

 

 

The Russians are drifting back and even before the zero baht crack down Chinese growth was slowing downing down.

 

 

Interesting data point, in 2006 for the closer poorer country’s that leave many of us questioning the numbers, clear majority are coming via Land/Sea, which makes the definition of "tourist" highly questionable.

Via Land and Sea as overall percentage: 

• ·         Cambodia 73%
• ·         Laos 95%
• ·         Malaysia 69%
• ·         Vietnam 42%

I suspect these percentages have not changed much so i would say majority are just daily shoppers or unregistered cross border labour

 

With exception of France (12%) and Canada (11%) all rest hover around 2-5% and this was the height of the border hopper days

 

 

But of course, this is only arrivals, does not explain why so many tourist dependent businesses are down in revenue.

 

 

• ·       In my opinion number one culprit is exchange rates, thai baht is to strong and has been for nearly 7 years. Tourists home currency just does not go as far anymore. And that’s before you factor inflation. Also, if you look at most of highs and lows from a particular nationality they follow closely behind the exchange rate fluctuations.

 

 

 

• ·      Next is demographics, Thailand is getting younger and/or less affluent tourist these days. Maybe because the older types remember when it was cheaper and have decided to give elsewhere a try, maybe because older types now demand “more” (class, luxury, quality, infrastructure….Take your pick), a “more” Thailand in general, Patong in particular has never provided (like really, who wants to pay money to get a "sand bed" with mattress?).

Someone mentioned Spain a few pages back, it was a very valid comparison, Costa Del Sol tourism took a nose dive during the late 80’s early 90’s because the place just kept getting more broken, dirtier, more crime ridden while prices just kept going up. Tourists started looking further East (even as far as Phuket) for better value for money . Tourism did not recover until they cleaned up the shit-hole and market brought prices under control again and even then, took over a decade.

 

 

• ·      Changing travel habits. Due to the increase of budget airlines like Air Asia it is a lot easier and cheaper now to spend a few days in one place before flying out to another vs the old standard of  10-14 days at a beach destination and few days in BKK before heading home. Spend some time in tourist advise forums, the itinerary’s people are posting are basically trying to hit every main destination in Thailand and surrounding counties in 2-3 weeks. They make the Japanese visiting Europe in the 80/90’s look lazy.

 

 

• ·      Increased national and international competition, lot more destinations in Thailand have come up over the last decade and in surrounding countries.

 

 

• ·       Increased local competition. Lot has been made of the low occupancy rate of hotels over Xmas in last few pages. Is anyone really that surprised? Traditional western tourist markets have only increased about 50% over last 10 years for all of Thailand. What’s the increase of hotel rooms in Patong in same period? 100% 200%? How many new restaurant’s? Massage shops? Tour desks? From what I have seen only number of bars is shrinking and that only started around 2014 and mainly because for most it’s Bangla or bust and land owners there have their heads stuck in the clouds regarding prices

 

 

Is Patong dead? Not really and doubt it will ever die. More tourists here than ever.

 

 

But are a large percentage of businesses soon going to be? Most definitely. People, both Thai and foreign need to stop opening mickey mouse Bars/Restaurant’s/Shops/Guesthouses/Small hotels just because they have a dream and some ready cash, do some market research, have a bloody businesses plan and something to offer that cannot either be found 2 doors down already and/or easily copied.

 

 

And if you have never run a business before at home, think very very seriously before trying for first time abroad in a country where you don't know the language or culture, especially in an over saturated market like Patong, here only the strong, established and adaptable have even a small chance

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by Lashay
TV sucks at table formatting

[GeorgeCross]

seems to me that a lot of the western market are renting villas or condos on a weekly or monthly basis rather than staying in hotels and staying in them much more than going out and hitting restaurants. the demographics have also changed i'm seeing many more young families and multi-generational families than single guys/groups. what i've noticed in Hua Hin is that on xmas and new year nights it was packed out everywhere i went but then all week its been quiet. so thats it, peak season over, i thought.. but no last night (saturday) it was full out again everywhere. so the tourists are here (confirming the data above) but where did these western tourists go all week? i doubt they flew home and a new influx just arrived so i have to assume its much more likely they stayed in their villas all week, cooking at home, enjoying time with their families and generally saving money and maybe feeling safer. then they are "picking" their nights out. bear in mind the weather has been good here all week, not great but definitely not like the south, dry nights etc

 

 

maybe we have a new class of tourist.. "zero baht farang"! able to get here but poorer.. book flights abroad, book villas abroad, shop at makro 

 

 

edit: i should mention in between xmas and new years eve it was dead in town as well

Edited January 8, 2017 by GeorgeCross

[Old Croc]

I know someone who owns a couple of condos at Rawai.

Because of an oversupply ( the developers built another complex as soon as they sold off the first), he hasn't been able to sell nor rent them for several years.

Suddenly now they're fully rented for months.  Russians.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Old Croc

[DrDave]

14 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

 

I would presume laos and cambodian figures would reflect the fact that they share a land border. It may be very easy to pop across the border for a day out and still be counted as a tourist. Or, as I suspect, the numbers would be people entering to work illegally. If someone comes in and out 3 times a year thats counted as a tourist visit each time. People from Singapore often come to Thailand for a weekend, and may do that several times a year. I have friends in Singapore\malaysia who do it regularly on motorbikes. 

Before I lived here, i visited as a tourist 3-4 times a year from Australia. If I lived in Cambodia, I would have visited 3-4 times a month.

600,000 visitors from laos could be the same 60,000 people visiting 10 times each.

I agree with everything you've outlined above. Multiple entries do (and should) count when not "country hopping".

 

My point, though, was that TAT is charged with promoting TOURISM for the purpose of generating tourism-related revenue (hotels, restaurants, tours, etc) for Thailand. Their charter is to market Thailand as a holiday destination to other countries, and thus maintain or increase Thailand's tourism revenue stream. The most significant measure of their performance seems to be the number of "tourist arrivals" at all ports of entry. 

 

The mis-classification of border crossings by nationals of neighboring countries simply pads TAT's tourist entry numbers by millions of entries when in fact, the vast majority of these are most likely not tourist entries in the normal sense, and do little or nothing to contribute to the revenue objectives that TAT is charged with.

 

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

maybe we have a new class of tourist.. "zero baht farang"! able to get here but poorer.. booked flights abroad, booked villas from abroad, now shopping at makro 

 

I think you could describe it as "Zero visible baht farang". 10 years ago,  there used to be one big economy, in and around Bangla Rd/patong. When it was full it was very visible. Now, 1000 people stay in and around a condo complex, eat local etc, and dont wander the streets of patong. They dont stay in hotels and guest houses in Patong, they stay elseware in a long term rental, or owned condo.

[GiantFan]

Not new.  Did this 15 years ago.  Fly up from Sin for a long weekend.  Play a few rounds of golf.  Rented a 5br Villa in blue point, south of Patong.  US$100 each including use of a car, case of beer, and 2 maids.  Kicked in thb 1000 each into the Kitty which paid for drinks, breakfasts, and one blowout seafood dinner cooked by the staff.  Fraction of the price at the likes of Savoey, ripoff that it is.  After dinner, taxi into Patong.

[xylophone]

18 hours ago, DrDave said:

 

I have zero confidence in these numbers.

 

Think about it....

Cambodia, for instance, had 622,000 arrivals in 2016 as TOURISTS? That means that 4 of every 100 men women and children arrived in Thailand as tourists. I don't think so.

Laos had almost 1.3 million arrivals as TOURISTS?  That would be nearly 20% of the entire population of Laos! All coming to Thailand as tourists (staying in hotels, eating in restaurants, and otherwise spending money). Right.

Singapore - over 15% of their total population had a holiday in Thailand in 2016? Uh huh.

 

Looking at Cambodia and Laos again, there were more Laotian tourist arrivals than Australians? (Think about the relative disparity in disposable income between these two countries). Almost as many Cambodian tourists as Australians and Americans? Ummm.

 

I think someone's been cooking the books.

 

 

Agree DrDave;  if one believes that the numbers quoted are factual numbers of tourists and the state of tourism, then one believes the following: –

 

– That the BIB do not collect tea money on a monthly basis.

 

– That corruption really doesn't exist here, except in small pockets.

 

– That the "unusual wealth" accumulated by various top officials here is as a result of honest endeavours.

 

– That immigration NEVER ask for a fee for those things which should be given free of charge.

 

– That all is well in the land where "saving face" can result in death.

 

Oh, and before I forget, one actually believes that the infrastructure in Patong is world-class!!!!

 

And I'm sure there are many more which could be listed, however one which springs to mind and probably mirrors much of the above is the example just a few years ago when the Minister of Finance (or some such name) declared GDP at a certain rate which met expectations, only to be found out later that he had inflated those figures and that they were false. His response was along the lines that he had wanted to make everybody feel happy, and so telling a little white lie was okay with regards to the inflated GDP figures – – yeah right!

 

In a country where the above exists, how on earth can you ever believe anything which is published by such clowns.

 

AND quote Lashay, "Is Patong dead? Not really and doubt it will ever die. More tourists here than ever".

 

In the 10 years I have lived here and the 12 years I have been coming here, I have never seen so few tourists as I have this year, however I will put a proviso on that in as much as over the past week or two, the numbers have increased over what they were prior to this, but I suspect these numbers will quickly fall away and this high season will be poor.

 

The biggest supermarket in Patong is many millions of baht down on takings compared to other years; a decent chain of restaurants throughout the island is also struggling to meet anywhere near its income targets; several smaller restaurants I know are only just surviving, when normally they would be thriving, and we all know the situation with regards to the bars, however it is still a pointer to lower tourist numbers and lower spend.

 

 

[LivinginKata]

46 minutes ago, xylophone said:

<snip>

In the 10 years I have lived here and the 12 years I have been coming here, I have never seen so few tourists as I have this year, however I will put a proviso on that in as much as over the past week or two, the numbers have increased over what they were prior to this, but I suspect these numbers will quickly fall away and this high season will be poor.

 

 

In the 20 years I have lived here I have seen Patong grow in terms of new buildings for all of those years. Also for 10+ of those years there was a vibrate growing long stay expat  community. That long stay expat type is reducing for a variety of reasons ..

 

- poor exchange rate

- harder to make a (legal) living here

- immigration hurdles for the younger guys, especially off shore workers

- congestion and pollution 

- high cost of Farang living

- Phuket is played out, much more exciting and cheaper places to exploit

 

[xylophone]

53 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

Agree DrDave;  if one believes that the numbers quoted are factual numbers of tourists and the state of tourism, then one believes the following: –

 

– That the BIB do not collect tea money on a monthly basis.

 

– That corruption really doesn't exist here, except in small pockets.

 

– That the "unusual wealth" accumulated by various top officials here is as a result of honest endeavours.

 

– That immigration NEVER ask for a fee for those things which should be given free of charge.

 

– That all is well in the land where "saving face" can result in death.

 

Oh, and before I forget, one actually believes that the infrastructure in Patong is world-class!!!!

 

And I'm sure there are many more which could be listed, however one which springs to mind and probably mirrors much of the above is the example just a few years ago when the Minister of Finance (or some such name) declared GDP at a certain rate which met expectations, only to be found out later that he had inflated those figures and that they were false. His response was along the lines that he had wanted to make everybody feel happy, and so telling a little white lie was okay with regards to the inflated GDP figures – – yeah right!

 

In a country where the above exists, how on earth can you ever believe anything which is published by such clowns.

 

AND quote Lashay, "Is Patong dead? Not really and doubt it will ever die. More tourists here than ever".

 

In the 10 years I have lived here and the 12 years I have been coming here, I have never seen so few tourists as I have this year, however I will put a proviso on that in as much as over the past week or two, the numbers have increased over what they were prior to this, but I suspect these numbers will quickly fall away and this high season will be poor.

 

The biggest supermarket in Patong is many millions of baht down on takings compared to other years; a decent chain of restaurants throughout the island is also struggling to meet anywhere near its income targets; several smaller restaurants I know are only just surviving, when normally they would be thriving, and we all know the situation with regards to the bars, however it is still a pointer to lower tourist numbers and lower spend.

 

 

 

PS. There's three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and Thai statistics.

 

[metisdead]

A troll post using an aberrant miss spelling of another member's name has been removed. Continued posting in this nature will likely result in a posting suspension. 

[NamKangMan]

On 08/01/2017 at 4:58 PM, LivinginKata said:

 

In the 20 years I have lived here I have seen Patong grow in terms of new buildings for all of those years. Also for 10+ of those years there was a vibrate growing long stay expat  community. That long stay expat type is reducing for a variety of reasons ..

 

- poor exchange rate

- harder to make a (legal) living here

- immigration hurdles for the younger guys, especially off shore workers

- congestion and pollution 

- high cost of Farang living

- Phuket is played out, much more exciting and cheaper places to exploit

 

 

 

I agree, LIK.

 

I would just add that it is tourism that "advertises" Phuket as a place to seek to live, either as an employee, business owner, or a retiree. 

 

I would suggest that the majority of us were once a tourist here, and probably returned here several times, before living here long term.

 

With the shrinking western tourist market, Phuket is not "advertising" itself as an expat destination like it did in the past.  So, I can only see the expat community contracting here in the future. 

 

Whilst the Chinese filled the vacuum left by the western tourist decline, I can't see them doing the same as expats. 

 

"- Phuket is played out, much more exciting and cheaper places to exploit" - I think you will find that it is Phuket who has "played out" the western tourists.  As mentioned previously, you pay the high prices on Phuket, and receive the same product as elsewhere in South East Asia, but with substandard service and facilities. 

 

No business (tourist destination) can survive doing this to their customers. (tourists)