Patong is dead.

[madmax2]

18 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

 

 

 

Tourists are not going to the places tourists used to go, we agree.

 

But tourist numbers ARE NOT down..

 

Most big hotels all over Phuket have higher occupancy this month than during same period last year.

 

I do not know what they do as apparently they are not going to Bangla but they sure are on the Island: someone check the beach!! 

OK i will correct myself or your benefit

Tourists from Aust, Uk, EUR, and USA are down and tourists from other destinations like china and russia are up but the chinese especially spend their money in businesses  selected by the tour guides mainly, there have been a few independent chinese tourists around lately but no where near the amount of independent tourists that were coming from other countries previously

Happy now 

[KarenBravo]

To a lesser extent, the Russians are also on compulsory visits to rip-off factories. Check out all the Pegas buses outside the Latex and Jewelry outlets. 

[xylophone]

27 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

 

 

 

Tourists are not going to the places tourists used to go, we agree.

 

But tourist numbers ARE NOT down..

 

Most big hotels all over Phuket have higher occupancy this month than during same period last year.

 

I do not know what they do as apparently they are not going to Bangla but they sure are on the Island: someone check the beach!! 

 

Well, I'm going to play devil's advocate here, as well as having "a bob each way" as they say!!

 

First of all I won't believe any numbers put out by TAT or any Thai organisation and there is a reason for that, because when the minister of finance can lie about the GDP numbers and inflate them, then lying about the tourist arrival numbers is mere bagatelle compared to that!

 

You say that most big hotels have a higher occupancy rate this month, however that may well be because they have discounted their prices markedly – – for example one top hotel here is offering 50% discount on the normal room rate and another 59% discount, including breakfast. And in doing this they have quite possibly attracted those people who would normally go to the midrange/budget hotels, so you're getting distorted numbers because you're just stealing from other smaller hotels. This gives them (big hotels) higher occupancy rates but still doesn't mean that the tourist numbers overall here have increased?!

 

This was very much in evidence when a friend visited all of the hotels along Beach Road and was told that they were full, so he went online and booked a room at one of those hotels at a discounted rate, and there were plenty available.

 

Now to get onto my "bob each way" scenario, let's say that numbers were up overall (and my visits to the beach and shopping centres and feedback from friends businesses would not support that) then as others have pointed out they would be tour parties of cheap Chinese and Russians who spend pocketfuls of small change on rubbish food and noodles in supermarket and minimart stores.

 

IMO they have attracted the type of tourists that they don't want and the irony of it is that if the big hotels are discounting their rates by huge amounts, then they are also getting on the bandwagon of attracting the wrong type of tourists, so it's a no-win game all round.

[LivinginKata]

18 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

To a lesser extent, the Russians are also on compulsory visits to rip-off factories. Check out all the Pegas buses outside the Latex and Jewelry outlets. 

 

The Pegus buses seemed to have completely disappeared last year, but now they are back in a much more limited way. I see most Russians here are independent travellers. Yes, they take the charter flight, but not the whole package deal.

 

It's the Chinese buses that have vanished in a very big way these last 2 months.

[KarenBravo]

........and yet, tourist arrivals are up. How do you square that circle?

[CantSpell]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

First of all I won't believe any numbers put out by TAT or any Thai organisation and there is a reason for that, because when the minister of finance can lie about the GDP numbers and inflate them, then lying about the tourist arrival numbers is mere bagatelle compared to that!

 

You say that most big hotels have a higher occupancy rate this month, however that may well be because they have discounted their prices markedly – – for example one top hotel here is offering 50% discount on the normal room rate and another 59% discount, including breakfast. And in doing this they have quite possibly attracted those people who would normally go to the midrange/budget hotels, so you're getting distorted numbers because you're just stealing from other smaller hotels. 

.

 

CHFarang quoted STR data and I have access to similar data about 25 big hotels in Phuket. And we do not quote any TAT figures...

 

Full occupancy 2016 was 4 points higher than 2015.

Rates 2016 about 8% higher than 2015.

January 17 follow the exact same trend...

 

Guess what, Phuket is up... 

Bangla is dead I understand but Phuket is up

 

Discounts are just Agoda or booking.com giving you illusions to motivate purchasers.. "50% now"  ... "Last 3 rooms, buy now.." 

[madmax2]

Still lots of tour buses and chinese tourists at rawai beach every day going on island tours

As many if not more than there have ever been, some people are rating in the profits catering to the Chinese

[madmax2]

3 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

 

CHFarang quoted STR data and I have access to similar data about 25 big hotels in Phuket. And we do not quote any TAT figures...

 

Full occupancy 2016 was 4 points higher than 2015.

Rates 2016 about 8% higher than 2015.

January 17 follow the exact same trend...

 

Guess what, Phuket is up... 

Bangla is dead I understand but Phuket is up

 

Discounts are just Agoda or booking.com giving you illusions to motivate purchasers.. "50% now"  ... "Last 3 rooms, buy now.." 

Most posters have no idea about running a business

A resort has just about the same running costs if it is full or empty with guests

If a resort has 50% occupancy at full price and 100% occupancy at 50% discount which way would they be better of, this question is not meant for you 

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, CantSpell said:

 

CHFarang quoted STR data and I have access to similar data about 25 big hotels in Phuket. And we do not quote any TAT figures...

 

Full occupancy 2016 was 4 points higher than 2015.

Rates 2016 about 8% higher than 2015.

January 17 follow the exact same trend...

 

Guess what, Phuket is up... 

Bangla is dead I understand but Phuket is up

 

Discounts are just Agoda or booking.com giving you illusions to motivate purchasers.. "50% now"  ... "Last 3 rooms, buy now.." 

 

 We'll have to agree to disagree then because I won't believe the numbers from the big hotels either as my friend found out when visiting them........."sorry we are full" when they weren't so perhaps they are telling porkies when reporting the figures  as well (and that has been commented on before).

 

A 50% discount with the rate quoted is not an illusion and I could have booked it at that price!!

 

Anyway the thread is called "Patong is dead" so Phuket may be a different story?

[madmax2]

49 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

 We'll have to agree to disagree then because I won't believe the numbers from the big hotels either as my friend found out when visiting them........."sorry we are full" when they weren't so perhaps they are telling porkies when reporting the figures  as well (and that has been commented on before).

 

A 50% discount with the rate quoted is not an illusion and I could have booked it at that price!!

 

Anyway the thread is called "Patong is dead" so Phuket may be a different story?

Resorts and major hotels always keep a few rooms empty so they can rent them at full price to walk in customers, its good business practice and has been around for a long time.

they generally discount them at a certain time of the day if they are still vacant and sometimes put the price back up for late arrivals

 

Its ones in Patong i am talking about to keep the thread on topic 

Edited January 20, 2017 by madmax2

[performance]

On 1/31/2015 at 5:34 PM, billythehat said:

Brits?...I’m not skint and neither are many of the quality Brit tourists I know that visit Lalaland. No Sir, I think there are many and varied reasons why folk are not going there...kop some of NKM’s sermons for the unfortunate low-down. Arh, the good old days...

So your not baking your own bread on the camp fire mate 

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, madmax2 said:

Resorts and major hotels always keep a few rooms empty so they can rent them at full price to walk in customers, its good business practice and has been around for a long time.

they generally discount them at a certain time of the day if they are still vacant and sometimes put the price back up for late arrivals

 

Its ones in Patong i am talking about to keep the thread on topic 

 

Who knows what hotels will do........my walk-in friend couldn't get a room but booked one easily on line (same hotel) and I remember a post some time ago from someone in the industry, when he said that hotels often lied about their occupancy rates because they wanted to stay ahead/look better than their competition?? 

 

Didn't seem to make sense but when you delve into the competitive nature of the industry it did.

 

So in Patong big hotels occupancy rates show an increase in tourists whilst to counter that, medium & small hotels are struggling, as are many restaurants, Jungceylon foot traffic is low, Big C takings are down and we know about bars and massage parlours struggling, and the beach is nowhere near as full as it used to be and.............so something doesn't add up?

 

 

[NamKangMan]

No one is denying there are planes full of Chinese tourists coming to Phuket now.  These numbers are up.

 

However, their holiday is paid for in China, with the tour company beating down the price per room, per night, to a rock bottom price.  Not much profit margin for the hotel / resort at that rate. 

 

They do the same with restaurants, for the included meals, and the price of certain included activities.   

 

They have their own coach buses for transport around the island, so nothing from them to the tuk-tuks, which is a good thing.

 

During their free time, they buy food at 7/11 and Big C, and you don't see them in bars drinking and playing with the girls.

 

This is why the hospitality industry here sees very little money from the majority of tourists coming to Phuket now - the Chinese.

 

So, whilst tourist numbers and occupancy rates may be up, the money in the Phuket economy from the tourism industry would be down, way down, and this is reflected in many for sale signs and businesses closing.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2017 by NamKangMan

[simon43]

I made a well planned move out of Phuket about two years ago.  Best thing I ever done.

Where I now live there is no traffic, no pollution, beautiful empty beaches, no chinese hordes, at night there is total quiet and darkness (save, on occassion, the soft moaning of my beautiful girl) and in the morning I am awaken by birds, not the sounds of cars.

 

I moved (was 'encouraged' to move!) about 5 months ago, and relocated to work in Nypyidaw (Myanmar).  Let's go through that checklist:

 

No traffic - check, Naypyidaw roads are infamous for having no cars, I can safely cycle to work)

No pollution - check. No factories and no cars here and no burning of stubble

Beautiful empty beaches - No, but I get bored sitting on a beach

No Chinese hordes - check, I've only seen a few diplomats

Total quiet and darkness at night - check, very few people, not many lights, hardly any buildings!

Moan of my beautiful girl - Not yet, but this is priority #1 :)

Woken by birds - check

 

It is not your average expat destination, but I'm happy to be away from the Phuket traffic and corruption.

 

 

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just spoke to some Thai lady friends who work at the local resort spa.  Yesterday they had just one customer.  Today at lunchtime they still did not have a single customer, and had just one appointment booked for 5pm.

There are 7 girls working in that spa.  Last year they were exhausted doing 6 to 8 customers per day.

There was a brief flurry of business the week following Christmas, but now it appears to have plummeted.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, simon43 said:

 

 

 

I moved (was 'encouraged' to move!) about 5 months ago, and relocated to work in Nypyidaw (Myanmar).  Let's go through that checklist:

 

No traffic - check, Naypyidaw roads are infamous for having no cars, I can safely cycle to work)

No pollution - check. No factories and no cars here and no burning of stubble

Beautiful empty beaches - No, but I get bored sitting on a beach

No Chinese hordes - check, I've only seen a few diplomats

Total quiet and darkness at night - check, very few people, not many lights, hardly any buildings!

Moan of my beautiful girl - Not yet, but this is priority #1 :)

Woken by birds - check

 

It is not your average expat destination, but I'm happy to be away from the Phuket traffic and corruption.

 

 

Simon

Good to here you are settled.  I have been following the Mynamar thread with photos posted by samuijim and halfaboy and am very interested.  I have one foot out of the door of Thailand already.  I may well relocate to Myamar as well.  Great to hear you are working on procuring some moaning.  If you post some photos I will be more then happy to help you with the selection process.

 

How is the gemstone venture going?  Be great to receive your update on the other thread.

[Rimmer]

A  personal attack flame has been removed:

 

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

[AJBangkok]

Patong's infrastructure has evolved over time to service independent travelers, and semi independent travelers who buy a flight/hotel and maybe a few day trips. Patong isn't really set up to service the low budget group tours. Low budget group tours need venues that can cater for 35-50 people so forget guest houses, forget small hotels with under say 70 rooms, forget restaurants with less than 60 covers , forget bars with less than 50 seats. 

 

Any venue that services group tours also has to have the staff and capacity to serve 35-50 people that come at exactly the same time  as leave at exactly the same time. That's not easy and costs money as what do the staff do for the other 6 hours of their shift.

 

Just those capacity constraints exclude the vast majority of patong businesses from even a sniff of group tour revenue.

 

All that being said group tours aren't buying what Patong is selling ( at least in the scale they need to satisfy the entire group at the same time) 

 

The other issue is that the tour operators are geared up to make as much money as possible from the groups they bring. They strictly control the itinerary and the venues they visit. Any venue they visit is going to be either owned by the tour operators themselves or their will be a huge commission rebated to the operator on the group spend. 

 

While most businesses in Patong would gladly pay a commission unfortunately they don't have the scale required to service the group.

 

Patong has evolved from an idyllic village on a beautiful beach to a tourist Mecca, and now to a shark infested cesspool. The independent and semi independent travelers will still visit for a walk on the wild side or a night of hedonistic pleasure but they will stay elsewhere. 

 

Tourism in Thailand will continue to grow but unless the Patong business model evolves to cater for groups or there is a massive reassergence of independent and semi independent travelers who want what Patong has to offer (warts and all )then Patong has probably seen its best days .

[simon43]

Although not in Patong, I just got word today that a good Swiss friend of mine is also closing his small hotel at the airport - he says that he is 'sick of tight-a*sed tourists demanding 5-star rooms and service for 1-star prices...'.  

 

And my Thai ex-wife #2 (who f***ed me over many years ago),   tells me today that her hotel/land will be repossessed by the bank on the 27th cos she ain't been paying the mortgage. (No, I am not going to bail her out).

 

Well, at least karma works in wonderful ways 

[xylophone]

43 minutes ago, AJBangkok said:

Patong's infrastructure has evolved over time to service independent travelers, and semi independent travelers who buy a flight/hotel and maybe a few day trips. Patong isn't really set up to service the low budget group tours. Low budget group tours need venues that can cater for 35-50 people so forget guest houses, forget small hotels with under say 70 rooms, forget restaurants with less than 60 covers , forget bars with less than 50 seats. 

 

Any venue that services group tours also has to have the staff and capacity to serve 35-50 people that come at exactly the same time  as leave at exactly the same time. That's not easy and costs money as what do the staff do for the other 6 hours of their shift.

 

Just those capacity constraints exclude the vast majority of patong businesses from even a sniff of group tour revenue.

 

All that being said group tours aren't buying what Patong is selling ( at least in the scale they need to satisfy the entire group at the same time) 

 

The other issue is that the tour operators are geared up to make as much money as possible from the groups they bring. They strictly control the itinerary and the venues they visit. Any venue they visit is going to be either owned by the tour operators themselves or their will be a huge commission rebated to the operator on the group spend. 

 

While most businesses in Patong would gladly pay a commission unfortunately they don't have the scale required to service the group.

 

Patong has evolved from an idyllic village on a beautiful beach to a tourist Mecca, and now to a shark infested cesspool. The independent and semi independent travelers will still visit for a walk on the wild side or a night of hedonistic pleasure but they will stay elsewhere. 

 

Tourism in Thailand will continue to grow but unless the Patong business model evolves to cater for groups or there is a massive reassergence of independent and semi independent travelers who want what Patong has to offer (warts and all )then Patong has probably seen its best days .

 

Very informative post AJB, thanks for that and it was very timely because just yesterday afternoon as I was exiting the Jungceylon car park, I came across a party of about 30 Chinese people piling into JC although I have to say that in the main I have seen small groups of between six and 10 milling around the place rather than the larger groups (perhaps the larger groups go to the rip-off gem, latex and souvenir palaces?).

 

Of course there are the large buses in the car park which would suggest that even those smaller groups may have been part of a larger group, who knows?

 

Jumping around a bit, but on Friday evening I went to "restaurant alley" alongside of Jungceylon and saw a group of six Chinese guys coming out of one of the cheaper Thai restaurants there and they actually took their supermarket trolley in with them, which was three quarters laden with low-cost dried food, seaweed and the like, and it made me wonder about the quality of the people here in these tourist parties.

 

For the record, Wine Connection was about 90% full as were a couple of the other restaurants near it, and then a few more at about 30% full and a couple which were almost empty, and others with just a handful of people in them (on the opposite side actually). There were many Russians in Wine Connection, in fact the tables around mine were full of them!

 

On the subject of "Patong is Dead", well I would think that for the majority of the restaurants in that area who were depending upon this being the "high season" and for increased revenue, they would be severely disappointed and would have to be struggling.  

 

Perhaps it's because this high season has been, or will be, the shortest high season on record??

 

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by xylophone

[KarenBravo]

Interesting ad in one of the papers. Bar in Tiger complex, 4th row with 50,000 Bt monthly rent.

The land-lords are still creaming it....

[xylophone]

RESURRECTION OR LATE BLOOM?

 

A few things to comment on, although one swallow does not a summer make, perhaps there are some hopeful signs, because feedback I've had from a few bar owners (yes, those places which are less frequented these days) suggests that patronage is up, although still a little bit scratchy, however last night one bar I was at, had about 12 to 14 customers in it, when another 54 French folk on a tour party suddenly descended upon the place, and although they only stayed for about 40 minutes, drinks were purchased.

 

My bar owner friend said although that was unusual, of late he had been experiencing an upturn in customers? A few others have seen hopeful signs. 

 

Then, over the past week in between a few quiet days there have been days of almost pandemonium when seemingly hundreds of Chinese have disembarked from an aeroplane which must have landed on the roof of Jungceylon, because they came from nowhere and after a few days disappear back into that plane on the roof and go, only for this to be repeated a few days later!

 

During this time my favourite Starbucks outlet becomes packed with low rent Chinese with screaming children and clothes resurrected from the bottom drawers of old wardrobes, taking the place over whilst some of them ordered drinks and the rest of them sleep.

 

And a new take on some statistics I quoted earlier......... late last November the turnover at Big C was down on the previous year, but then December proved to be a bumper month and the increase in turnover made for a positive result for the whole year, this in single digits though.

 

Looking back, I remember times when there were hordes of Chinese almost fighting over the free cardboard boxes provided by Big C, all of them trying to cram in their purchases of dried things, spices and whatever else was on the shopping list and carrying box loads of this stuff out with them. Although cheap individually, the volume of this stuff must've helped to tip the turnover into positive territory.

 

As for this January, well it is proving to be a little better than last January so far.......

 

Maybe the "peak season" or "high season" has moved, or maybe this is just an aberration? Whichever, I can't wait for the low season to come round so I don't have to put up with the chaos, poor driving, cheap, noisy and rude tourists, but then again I have to remember that this is a tourist destination although it doesn't always seem like it with the laws which are, or are not enforced to assist them!!

[DrDave]

On 1/22/2017 at 11:25 AM, AJBangkok said:

Patong's infrastructure has evolved over time to service independent travelers, and semi independent travelers who buy a flight/hotel and maybe a few day trips. Patong isn't really set up to service the low budget group tours. Low budget group tours need venues that can cater for 35-50 people so forget guest houses, forget small hotels with under say 70 rooms, forget restaurants with less than 60 covers , forget bars with less than 50 seats. 

 

Any venue that services group tours also has to have the staff and capacity to serve 35-50 people that come at exactly the same time  as leave at exactly the same time. That's not easy and costs money as what do the staff do for the other 6 hours of their shift.

 

Just those capacity constraints exclude the vast majority of patong businesses from even a sniff of group tour revenue.

 

All that being said group tours aren't buying what Patong is selling ( at least in the scale they need to satisfy the entire group at the same time) 

 

The other issue is that the tour operators are geared up to make as much money as possible from the groups they bring. They strictly control the itinerary and the venues they visit. Any venue they visit is going to be either owned by the tour operators themselves or their will be a huge commission rebated to the operator on the group spend. 

 

While most businesses in Patong would gladly pay a commission unfortunately they don't have the scale required to service the group.

 

Patong has evolved from an idyllic village on a beautiful beach to a tourist Mecca, and now to a shark infested cesspool. The independent and semi independent travelers will still visit for a walk on the wild side or a night of hedonistic pleasure but they will stay elsewhere. 

 

Tourism in Thailand will continue to grow but unless the Patong business model evolves to cater for groups or there is a massive reassergence of independent and semi independent travelers who want what Patong has to offer (warts and all )then Patong has probably seen its best days .

While I agree with most of the points you made, I would disagree the above.

Many of the Chinese tour groups seem to fit in a single tour bus with capacity of 35 pax or so. Although the charter flights from China may be full (300 pax or more), I suspect that they've been filled with numerous small groups organized by different companies.

 

Last year, I recall Sai Kor being choked with Chinese tour buses discharging and/or picking up passengers at the numerous guesthouses that line that road. I doubt that any of these guesthouses have more than 70 rooms, with the larger ones having maybe 50 or so. If a single tour group has 35 pax, then they would most likely need 20 or so rooms, which seems entirely doable given a group booking with a reasonable lead time or an advance order to hold rooms.  

 

As for restaurants and bars - you mention that the tour participants are captive, with the venues probably being associated with the tour company, and I agree. In the event that the tour itinerary includes some "meals on your own", the entire group won't necessarily all go to the same restaurant at the same time, so the number of covers isn't a huge issue in that case. Bars? Well most Chinese really don't patronize the bars in Patong. It's usually a stroll up Bangla for some photos, and that's it.

[xylophone]

And just to follow up on my last post,  yesterday Big C was very busy, with the vast majority of shoppers being Chinese, still stacking the trolleys with dried fruits etc and a few of them buying up all of the packets of pain relief Tiger Balm Red type plasters they could find!!

[Halfaboy]

Tomorrow it is Chines new year. So expect floods of Chinese the next couple of days....

[GiantFan]

Big C in JC packed 3pm today.  

[xylophone]

19 minutes ago, GiantFan said:

Big C in JC packed 3pm today.  

Yep and I was in amongst it for a short while......very busy with cheap Chinese.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

My ex Thai GF used to work for one of the largest Thai bedding companies in Phuket.  She had salary and commision and made most of her income selling latex pillows to Chinese tourists.  Here's the fun bit.  The pillows were manufactured in China, then repackaged here in Thailand.

[NamKangMan]

In simple Thai speak, "Many Chinese tourists does not equal many money."

 

On that basis, the "crowds of Chinese" and the "queues of Chinese" does no equal the big money that businesses are used to on Phuket from their tourism.

 

Basically, the number of tourists coming here is not having a corresponding amount of revenue that businesses on Phuket are used to from the tourism sector. 

[BernieOnTour]

On Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 3:16 PM, NamKangMan said:

No one is denying there are planes full of Chinese tourists coming to Phuket now.  These numbers are up.

 

However, their holiday is paid for in China, with the tour company beating down the price per room, per night, to a rock bottom price.  Not much profit margin for the hotel / resort at that rate. 

 

They do the same with restaurants, for the included meals, and the price of certain included activities.   

 

They have their own coach buses for transport around the island, so nothing from them to the tuk-tuks, which is a good thing.

 

During their free time, they buy food at 7/11 and Big C, and you don't see them in bars drinking and playing with the girls.

 

This is why the hospitality industry here sees very little money from the majority of tourists coming to Phuket now - the Chinese.

 

So, whilst tourist numbers and occupancy rates may be up, the money in the Phuket economy from the tourism industry would be down, way down, and this is reflected in many for sale signs and businesses closing.

 

 

I think, you are right.

 

And what will happen, is, what some people in tourism call the DomRep effect:

In times long gone, Dominican Republic had a lot of small restaurants, hotels and guesthouses.

Then the big chains "discovered" DomRep:

- building/purchasing bigger hotels 

- bringing in package tourists

- even offering "all-inclusive" packages

 

The tourist numbers rose tremendously,

however, the money ended up in the  coffers of the international chains,

driving a lot of local businesses into bankruptcy,

former self-employed, independent locals ending up as staff of the big hotels.