Bangkok: – The Finance Ministry expects economic recovery by the year’s end, arguing its fiscal revitalisation plans have started to yield results.

The six-month performance report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will clearly indicate that the economy is on track for full recovery, Rungson Sriworasat, permanent secretary for Finance, said.

The ministry’s fiscal measures have been showing positive results with the only exception for exports, Rungson said.

One of the positive indicators is the increase in value added tax revenues. The overall VAT growth for this year’s first quarter is 1 per cent.

Based on VAT, the domestic consumption expands by 10.5 per cent. The VAT revenues from imports have dropped by 11 per cent, however, due to falling price of oil.

The investment spending has been increasing as evidenced by the rise in the March sale of cement by 0.6 per cent.

The imports of capital goods rose by 5.9 per cent last month.

The disbursement of government spending has doubled in comparison to the same period last year. This is expected to spur economic activities leading out of the doldrums.

Although the exports are seeing negative growth, the increased demands in Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar have helped to cushion the impacts of weak demands in key markets like China and Europe.

Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain strong. March tourism revenues have increased by 23 per cent.

Anusorn Thamchai, dean of Rangsit University’s Economics faculty, voiced concern that the economic growth might be revised downward by 1 per cent if the political road map failed to be implemented by this year.

The failure to implement the political road map would erode the investor’s confidence, Anusorn said.

He warned that the country could see recession should the turmoil erupt again due to political fight over the transition to democratic rule.

Just a substance less hotch potch of meaningless facts without context.

Thanks to the Minister for to days update, tomorrow we will see another story and so the melodrama goes on.Could be funny if it was not so serious, propaganda will not fix the economy REAL action is required.

As always and more

i cant believe they are believing it them self even.....

While it is questionable that the GDP growth rate for 2015 wll exceed 2.8%, it is a certainty that the Junta's propoganda on the health of the economy will increase 100% for the year.

Just a substance less hotch potch of meaningless facts without context.

It must be true, the TAT helped write them

"The ministry’s fiscal measures have been showing positive results with the only exception for exports, Rungson said."

Exports make up 70% of the economy. Any other slight gains will be negated by this "exception".

Meanwhile...more thais are jobless despite whatever figures relased, more people are in debt, more SME and small retail establishments are going out of business and closing, meanwhile....the rich are getting richer, companies dealing in alcohol that is killing many are getting richer ie Singha and Beer Chang Group while also buying more land etc, more thai chinese groups are becoming richer ie even the gold shop dealers who do not pay taxes, the retail business is getting worst except for the monopolistic thai chinese companies like CP, Central Group, Siam Piwat, etc and meanwhile the f.......! banks and insurance companies that are screwing many people are getting richer. Meanwhile, new groups of mafia that are closer to the military are getting richer and powerful.

This country is beyong salvation. Khun Prayuth is a decent guy with good intentions but it takes a lot of effort and a lot of decent people to change this country that was screwed by the various politicans from the various groups and also the various thai chinese corporations, to change this country and it can not be done except with the use of real force and necessary extrajudicial purgings of certain controlling groups.

Just a substance less hotch potch of meaningless facts without context.

I agree. But it's the last two sentences which contain the underlying sinister message they want to get out.

All the preceding stuff about cement sales up etc. is a load of codswallop.

Look deeply into my eyes you are falling into a deep sleep when you awaken you will remember nothing. Your feeling drowsy you cannot keep your eyes open. Should have been the opening line.

Bangkok: – The Finance Ministry expects economic recovery by the year’s end...

The FM is on target...he's telling the truth....for the last few days of December we will see an uptick in the economy due to holiday spending....that will be logged by the govt as an economic recovery in 2015. Good times ahead.

I am so happy for him.

Here's a recent IMF working paper that gives an interesting read on factors affecting growth in Thailand.

If you have a short attention span, you might want to skip to sections VIII and IX.

wp1551.pdf

Yet THIS guy - Chatchai Sarikulya, another Thai finance minister - just said the economic growth which had been projected to hit 4% was actually only 1% (and if he SAYS 1% he means even LESS than 1%). A country run by mad hatters supported by boot licking liars.

As with any of these " predictions ", the real story is on the streets.

Vast amounts of unsold, or rented out real estate

Thousands of SME,s closing up the shop house in the last 6 months

Look in the shopping basket / cart of the person next to you in the check out que

See the empty vendor spaces at the local wet / flea market

Observe the visitors at the Gold shops, that opening early for the people to pawn out / loan their gold

Factory workers that for years relied upon OT for extra money - no more OT, and many on short time

I took off my rose tinted glasses a long time ago, and wont be putting them back on any time soon

Yes, along with every other country. What's so special to rebound Thailand? Baht is overvalued, exports down, neighbors are more efficient in many industries.